canadian report godae ocean view science team june 2009
DESCRIPTION
Fraser Davidson (1), Hal Ritchie (4,6) Greg Smith(1,4), Andry Ratsimandresy(1), Debbie Anne Power (1) Adam Lundrigan (1), Charles Hannah (2), Frederic Dupont (2), Dan Wright (2), Maud Guaracino (2), Denis Lefaivre (3), Pierre Pellerin(4), Mark Buehner (4), - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Canadian Report GODAE Ocean View Science
Team June 2009Fraser Davidson (1), Hal Ritchie (4,6)Greg Smith(1,4), Andry Ratsimandresy(1), Debbie Anne Power (1) Adam Lundrigan (1), Charles Hannah (2), Frederic Dupont (2), Dan Wright (2), Maud Guaracino (2), Denis Lefaivre (3), Pierre Pellerin(4), Mark Buehner (4),Lt. Darryl Williams (5) Keith Thompson (6)
(1) DFO-Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, St. John's, NL, Canada (2) DFO-Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada(3) DFO-Institute Maurice Lamontagne, Mont-Joli, QU, Canada(4) EC-Meteorological Research Division, Dorval, QU, Canada(5) National Defence, METOC, Halifax, NS, Canada(6) Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems
CONCEPTS•MOU among 3 Government Departments•No $ •Provides ability to obtain funding
•Short term (projects)•Long term (budgeted development)
Secretariat provided by Marty Taillefer DFO and Pierre Pellerin
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
CONCEPTS: CORE PROJECTSProject 1: Core CMC Systems InstallationInstall common core ocean model configurations at Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for collaborative projects, evaluations and coupling with GEM atmospheric model, coupled data assimilation, examine potential implementation for operational use.
Project 2: Basin-to-Global Ocean ReanalysesCanada-Mercator Contribution to CONCEPTS Validate and improve the ocean component of the basin-global modelling and assimilation system being developed for use by CONCEPTS and Mercator.
Project 3: Regional Ocean Prediction: C-NOOFS Canada-Newfoundland Operational Ocean Forecasting System
Project 4: Sea Ice Modelling and Data Assimilation
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
CONCEPTS: PROJECTS OF INTERESTS
1. Ocean Data assimilation, GOAPP (Keith Thompson)
2. Spaceborne Ocean Intelligence Network (Darryl Williams)
3. DRDC (A) Requirements and Initiatives (John Osler)
4. Coupled models for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Lefaivre & Pellerin)
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
NEMO Applications in
Canada• Global -- BIO, RPNE, Dalhousie, U Quebec Montreal• North Atlantic -- BIO, Dalhousie • North Pacific -- IOS, Royal Military College• Arctic and CAA -- BIO-CIS-Mercator, U Alberta• North-western Atlantic -- CNOOFS, Dalhousie, Memorial • Gulf of St. Lawrence-Scotian Shelf-Gulf of Maine -- BIO,
Dalhousie• Gulf of St. Lawrence -- BIO, U Quebec Rimouski • Great Lakes -- NWRI/RPNE, BIO
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
CONCEPTS Project 1 & 2Validation and analysis of the ¼-deg global
NEMO-CONCEPTS* ocean model
Francois Roy(1), Youyu Lu(2), Jean-Marc Belanger(3), Hal Ritchie(3), Greg Smith(4)
1- Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada 2- Ocean Sciences Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
3- Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada4- Biological and Physical Oceanography Section, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
A partnership of EC, DFO, DND, GOAPP and MERCATOR-OCEAN
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Two global ocean configurations for core project 1: ¼-deg; 1-deg
Status: ¼-deg tested for 6-yr spin-up; 10-day forecast; 1-yr simulation
1-deg model tested for multi-decade simulations;
1-deg model being coupled to 100km GEM;
Validation and process studies
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
CMC global ¼ deg 1 year model run NEMO3-LIM2 - ¼ deg ORCA025 - 50 vertical levels (1 m surface layer)
Atmospheric forcing from global GEM at 35 km resolution (Ua,Va,Ta,Ha,SW,LW) CORE bulk formulas from Large and Yeager (2004)
Initial conditions: MERCATOR-OCEAN PSY 3V2 (T,S,U,V, April 18, 2007) SSS restoring to yearly climatology + No SST restoring
• 1 Year simulation 1 (S3): 3-hourly forcing
• 1 Year simulation 2 (S24): 24h-av. forcing
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
S3
S3 – S24
1 Year simulation: sensitivity to atmospheric forcingSSH yearly standard deviation (using 20 outputs per day, close to hourly)
3 hour wind forcing- 24 hour wind forcing
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Yearly simulations: sensitivity to atmospheric forcingYearly averaged surface circulation in ms-1 (first 5 m)
S3
S3 – S24
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Wind energy input to oceanic near inertial motions: S3Initial estimates based for April 18-30, 2007High energy flux associated with synoptic storms
•Further analyses to reveal seasonal cycle•Comparison to be made with semi-analytic solution
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Theme 1 and 2: Conclusion
NEMO3-LIM2 with GEM forcing produces a realistic seasonal cycle without major SST drift
A non-persistent warm bias occurs during the summers of the north and south hemispheres (slightly reduced with 3-hourly forcing)
Significant variability in SST is added with 3-hourly forcing (diurnal cycle)
SSH variability is increased in coastal areas with 3-hourly forcing and the distribution of meso-scale eddies is changed
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Future work
Verification with in situ and satellite derived data
Work to explain the summer warm bias
More global diagnostics
Sensitivity tests to flux parameterization (CORE, GEM physics, …) and TKE parameters
Adding MERCATOR data assimilation system
Pseudo-operational 10 day forecasts using GEM forcing
Two-way coupling of NEMO with GEM referenced to PSY3V2
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
1º Global Ocean Model & Decadal SimulationModel:
Horizontal: Global tri-polar grids; Nominal resolution 1° in lat/long; Meridional refinement in tropics;
Vertical: 46 vertical NEMO 2.3 GOAPP
Simulations:10-yr spinup with CORE Normal Year forcing
CONTROL: CORE forcing 1958-2004
HEAT: wind stress set to Normal YearWIND: buoyancy forcing set to Normal Year
MJO: wind stress = Normal Year + MJO
Sea-Level Trend 1993-2004 (m/yr)
Model¼ o
Obs
1/4º model
Forcing sensitivity
Wind
Heat
1/4º model
Inter-Annual Sea-Level RMS 1993-2004 (m)
Model
Obs
1/4º model
Forcing sensitivity
Wind
Heat
Summary
• Global 1º model able to reproduce large-scale SSH changes during altimeter era
• Wind stress changes are primary cause of SSH trend and RMS at low and mid latitudes;
• impacts of buoyancy forcing mainly show at high latitudes
• 1º NEMO is being coupled to 100 km GEM; expected to be a good tool for study/prediction of intra-seasonal/seasonal variations
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
C-NOOFS
C-NOOFS system V0C-NOOFS system V0MERCATOR
Global Output
Initial StateC-NOOFS
Fixed BC’s
Weekly
www.c-noofs.gc.ca
NEMO v2.3
T,S,U,V,W
Data products / plotting
Eve
ry 2
4 h
r
WebpageWebpage
CMC WIND
C-NOOFS system V1C-NOOFS system V1MERCATOR
Global Output
RESTARTFILE
Time varying BC’s
Weekly
www.c-noofs.gc.ca
NEMO LIM2* BULK
T,S,U,V,W, ice, SSH
Data products / plotting
OceanOceanViewViewOf Of
The dayThe day
CMC WINDCMC T,Q,
QSW,QLW,precip
Validation Monitoring
NEMO LIM2* BULK
1/12 th 1/4
Observations
ValidationValidationM vs MM vs MM vs OM vs O
MonitoringMonitoringDiagnosticsDiagnostics
T,S,U,V,W, ice, SSH
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Effects of resolution on Model and ObservationC
TD
Sea Island lineSea Island line2008 12 19
1/4 1/12
ADCP (hr)
Observations Observations Bonavista Bay line Bonavista Bay line 2004 07
CTDCTD stations~20 km
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS statusC-NOOFS Overview
Configuration name
Operational since
Resolution
Initial Condition
Boundary Condition
Wind Forcing
Other forcing fields
Coupled ice model
NWA025-v0 Sept. 2008 ¼° Daily mean MERCATOR-
PSY3V2 forecast
Fixed to I.C. GEM Climatology None
NWA12-v0 Dec. 2008 – Jan. 2009
1/12° Daily mean MERCATOR-
PSY3V2 forecast
Fixed to I.C. GEM Climatology None
NWA025-v1 May 2009 ¼° MERCATOR-PSY3V2 analysis
Daily mean MERCATOR-
PSY3V2 forecasts
GEM GEM LIM2
NWA12-v1 July. 2009 1/12° MERCATOR-PSY2V1 analysis
Daily mean MERCATOR-
PSY3V2 forecasts
GEM GEM LIM2
NWA025-v2 Apr. 2010 ¼° CNOOFS assimilation
system (based on SAM2)
CMC global ocean forecasts
using SAM2
GEM GEM Not yet decided (LIM2, LIM3,
CICE)
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Observations to be assimilatedV2• Sea level anomalies :
– AVISO SSALTO/DUACS• Jason (2cm), ENVISAT and GFO (3.5cm)• Near-coast representivity error
• Mean dynamic topography :– Rio et al., 2005 (~5cm rms error)
• Sea surface temperature :– NCEP SST RTG (~0.7C)
• In situ profile T and S data :– E.g. Argo, XBT, TAO, CTD, …– CORIOLIS (Brest) – Quality Controlled by CLS (Toulouse)
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Forecast Viewer• Open access to
archive of static images of SSH and 3D T,S and currents
http://www.c-noofs.gc.ca/viewer/
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
CNOOFS Dynamic Quick-view Webpagewww.c-noofs.gc.ca:8080/ncWMS/godiva2.html
• Uses Godiva2 viewer (from RESC)
• Uses OpenLayers to quickly and easily visualize data
• User-defined options for colour scale and animations
• Capability to create overlays in kmz format for use in geobrowsers (e.g. GoogleEarth)
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
C-NOOFS Monitoring/Validation System
• Evaluation against:– AVISO satellite altimetry (SSH)– CMC Sea surface temperature analyses– CMC sea ice concentration analyses– Argo and other in situ data (coming soon…)
• For each data type:– maps of differences– RMS error versus forecast lead time– Mean error versus forecast lead time
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Evaluation NWA 025 V1 against AVISO SSH for May 13, 20091-day lead time 3-day lead time
10-day lead time6-day lead time
RMS difference
Mean difference
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
1-day lead time 3-day lead time
10-day lead time6-day lead time
RMS difference
Mean difference
Evaluation NWA 025 V1 against CMC SST for May 13, 2009
PSY3V1 V0 PSY3
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Future developments and plansC-NOOFS 1-2
• Implementation of NWA12-v1 to be done this summer
• Optimization of SAM2v1 assimilation system for Northwest Atlantic:– Ability to deal with tides– High-resolution SST track data– Improvement of error modes for Labrador Sea– Assimilation of seal and other additional in situ data
sources – Sea ice assimilation– Produce analyses daily
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Future developments and plansC-NOOFS 2-2
• Model improvements:– Update to NEMOv3.2– Add tides (variable volume)– Upgrade ice model (LIM2-EVP, LIM3 or CICE)– Optimization of ocean and ice physics
• Detailed validation studies, e.g.:– Iceberg tracking– Drifters– Argo, seals, …
• All in situ data we can put our hands on!
• Observation quality control
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
Sea-Ice Data Assimilation Project• Project Goal: to develop an automated ice analysis system for:
• Canadian Ice Service (CIS): ice concentration, thickness/type distribution, pressure, strength and edge, deformed ice at ~1-2 km resolution
• NWP: ice concentration, thickness, albedo, surface emissivity at ~5 km resolution
• Benefit from experience with variational and ensemble-based assimilation for NWP:
• use variational approach: incremental 3D-FGAT (first guess at appropriate time)
• Developed initial prototype analysis system using CIS ice-ocean model for Canadian east-coast plan to port system to other models/regions:
• Canadian Arctic archipelago region (IPY project, Polar-GEM)• Gulf of St. Lawrence (coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model developed at
RPN/IML)
Experiments with east coast coupled ice-Experiments with east coast coupled ice-ocean modelocean model
• Goal: evaluate 3D-Var approach relative to nudging approach as currently used at CIS
• Configuration:
– Assimilate partial concentration of 24 ice thickness categories from CIS daily ice charts
– Tests with additionally assimilating CIS RadarSAT image analyses
– Experimental period: 5 Dec 2006 - 30 Jun 2007
• Forecast verification in terms of total concentration and effective ice thickness (forecast minus observation)
– Only where the 1970-2000 weekly sea ice climatology indicates a non-zero probability of ice
Canadian east coast model (CIOM)Canadian east coast model (CIOM)
• Multicategory sea-ice model coupled to the Princeton ocean model (Yao et al., JGR 2000).
• Viscous plastic sea-ice rheology (Hibler, JGR 1979).
• GEM model atmospheric forcing every 3 hours.
• Grid resolution: 1/5º longitude x 1/6º latitude, 16 sigma levels.
• Originially developed by Charles Tang at BIO
48-h forecast
East coast 3D-Var experiments: ExampleEast coast 3D-Var experiments: ExampleBackground Estimate
(24h forecast)Observations
(CIS Daily Ice Chart)Analysis
(initialize next forecast)
Total ice concentration error StdDevTotal ice concentration error StdDev
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
15-h forecast 39-h forecast 0-h 24-h forecast 48-h forecast
Image analysis Daily charts
Persistence
Direct insertion
nudging
3D-Var 1
3D-Var 2
3D-Var 3
3D-Var 4
}large improvement vs. persistence
}small
differences among data assimilation experiments
ARTIC MODELMarch Sea-ice velocity for the last year of a 10 year run
1º model with OMIP forcing
The model consistently overestimates ice velocities which influences the sea ice
distribution. The reasons for the overestimations are not yet clear.
Future developments: Usage of “nesting” approach
NEMO’s AGRIF allows 2-way nesting
Potentially useful for CAA, e.g., 1º global + 1/4º CAA 1/2º Arctic + 1/8º CAA (2-3 km)
BIO-RPN-CIS collaboration in planning
Should be coordinated with CICE & I-DA developments
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
So Where Are We Going?
GEM / NEMOGEM / NEMO
• Global Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Ice Forecasting System
• Regional Eastern Canada Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Ice Forecasting System – 1 way nest with
MERCATOR– 10 day forecasting
• Ice • Service
– Agrif zoom
Research Direction
Downscaling
Ocean Only Vs Coupled
Ice Assimilation vs Altimetry Assimilation
CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status
GODAE Future
• International group helps focus national research & development
• Opportunity for synergies• Much needed collaboration
– Through Working Groups