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International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France

Global Wood Markets:Consumption, Production and Trade

By Ed Pepke

Forest Products Marketing Specialist

UNECE/FAO Timber Section

Geneva, Switzerland


Presentation topics

I. Introduction

II. Where is the supply? Global forests

III. Where is the production? Where is the demand?

IV. Forest products tradePrimarySecondary

V. Conclusions

VI. Discussion


I. Introduction

Why’s this important?• Trends in demand and supply of wood products• Geographical shifts in production, consumption and trade • Position of Europe in global markets

What forest products?• Wood vs non-wood• Traditional and new products

Topical issues• Traditional, e.g. trade disputes• New, e.g. subsidies for wood energy


II. Global forests and forest products


Forests and deforestation

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Mill

ion

hect

ares

Natural Plantation Total

Europe

Asia &Pacific

AfricaS. America

MideastNorth

America

Central America

Sources: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessments 2000, 2005, 2010

Net forest loss:1990s 8.3 million ha/year2000-2010 5.2 million ha/year


Why deforestation?

Conversion to other uses: agriculture, palm oil, pasture, urbanization

Fire, insects, disease

Root causes: poverty, firewood, illegal logging

Offset by plantations and natural expansion

Positive trend of a negative issue


Global roundwood harvests

Source: State of the World’s Forests, 2009, FAO.


World roundwood vs fuelwood

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Bill

ion

m3

Industrial roundwood Woodfuel

Of 3.5 billion m3, slightly more than half is used as woodfuel.

Source: FAOStat, 2009.


Woodfuel use

Inefficient domestic heating and cooking

Increasing in developed world, but efficient, environmentally sound combustion.


Modern wood energy

Efficient, clean combustion

Carbon neutral

Renewable energy

Market outlet for low-grade fiber


Modern wood energy

Processed fuels

• Not bulky firewood• Conveyable chips (high moisture)• Dry, high calorie pellets and briquettes

Next…

• Biorefineries: pulp, energy, chemicals• Liquid and gaseous fuels


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

North American Production

North American Consumption

European Consumption

Other Consumption

Total Consumption

Pelle

t Pro

duct

ion

(100

0 to

ns)

Production and consumption of wood pellets

Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2008- 2009.


Source: Worldmapper

UNECE region = Europe + N. America + CIS


UNECE roundwood harvests trends

Europe

Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER Database, 2009.


Forest resources growing stock

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Europe (41) North America CIS

Growing stock Net annual increment Fellings

s

Bill

ion

m3

Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000


Net annual growth vs fellings

0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

0 .7

0 .8

0 .9

1

E u ro p e (41 ) N . A m erica C IS

N et an n u a l in crem en t F e llin g s

Bill

ion

m3

Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000


Forests increasing in UNECE region

34%Russia

60%EU 27

80%North America

45%Southeast Europe

53%Northwest Europe

72%Nordics & Baltics

61%Central Europe

Fellings as % of annual growth

Sources: State of the World’s Forests, 2007 and UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment


Increasing forests & increasing demands

Increasing demand for paper and paper products, e.g. packaging

Increasing demand for wood products

Increasing demand for wood energy

= competition!

Where will wood come from?


III. Consumption and production


World shaped by political boundaries

Source: Worldmapper


World shaped by population

Source: Worldmapper, 2009


World shaped by forest products production

Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009


World shaped by wood and paper consumption



As shaped by forest products exports



As shaped by forest products imports



Western European wood and fiber requirements through 2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Am

ount

(in

mill

ion

cubi

c m

etre

s WR

ME

)

Recovered paperNet pulp importsIndustrial roundwoodTotal wood and fibre requirement

Growing demand without energy

Gap is residues

Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector

Outlook Study, 2005


Industrial roundwood consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

m3

AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania

Source: FAOStat, 2010


Industrial roundwood production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

m3




Sawnwood consumption

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

m3




Sawnwood production

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

m3




Panels production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

m3




Panels consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

m3




Paper & paperboard consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

met

ric

tons Africa

AmericasAsiaEuropeOceania



Paper & paperboard production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mill

ion

met

ric

tons Africa

AmericasAsiaEuropeOceania



What happens when supply does not equal demand?

IV. Trade


Global trade all products

Doubled in6 years



Europe leads in roundwoodexports (including within Europe)

Global roundwood exports

Globally exports = imports in value and volume, but not in direction!



N. American roundwood exports

USA increasingroundwood

exports



CIS roundwood exports, mainly Russia

Trend reversal in 2008

• Log export taxes

• Global economic crisis



African and Asian roundwood exportsRising despite policies to encourage value-addedprocessing



Housing crisis

North American exports



US housing starts, 2002-2013

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Source: APA – The EngineeredWood Association, 2009

Mill

ion

un

its


Impacts of US housing crisis

Global economic crisis (a cause)

Massive restructuring of N. American wood industry (unemployment)

Local communities devastated

Long-term consequences for forest sector


2x in 10 years

European exports



4x in 10 years

Log export taxes

CIS exports, mainly Russia



Exporting primary vs secondary

Primary (logs, sawnwood, panels, pulp) are commodity products• Easy to export• Correspond to market price

Secondary, value-added products• Higher value and profits• Require greater manufacturing and marketing skills


Secondary-processed products exports



Based on domestic and imported roundwoodWorld’s largest exporter of wooden furnitureand other secondary-processed products

5x in 10 years,no downturn in 2008

China is the motor!



Paper products exports



Panel exports



Sawn softwood exports



V. Trade conclusions

Global timber trade doubled over last decade

Greatest increase in secondary-processed products

Slowdown in 2008, 2009 with global economic crisis

China became largest roundwood importer and largest secondary-processed products exporter

Trade barriers distort markets• Export taxes, subsidies, tariff and non-tariff• Intentionally for national reasons• Consequences for partners’ forest sector


VI. Discussion


Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist

UNECE/FAO Timber Section448 Palais des Nations

CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland

Telephone +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 [email protected]

www.unece.org/timber

global wood markets: consumption, production and · pdf fileinternational forestry and global...

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