global warming - wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Global warming

Comparison of ground based (blue) andsatellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS)records of temperature variations since

1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.

Global mean surface temperaturedifference from the average for 1961–1990

Mean surface temperature change for theperiod 1999 to 2008 relative to the average

temperatures from 1940 to 1980

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of theEarth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century andits projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the last century.[1][A] TheIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes thatmost of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the20th century was caused by increasing concentrations of greenhousegases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning anddeforestation.[1] The IPCC also concludes that variations in naturalphenomena such as solar radiation and volcanoes produced most ofthe warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a smallcooling effect afterward.[2][3] These basic conclusions have beenendorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies ofscience,[B] including all of the national academies of science of themajor industrialized countries.[4]

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC reportindicate that the global surface temperature will probably rise afurther 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-firstcentury.[1] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use ofmodels with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrationsand the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions.Some other uncertainties include how warming and related changeswill vary from region to region around the globe. Most studies focuson the period up to the year 2100. However, warming is expectedto continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of thelarge heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbondioxide in the atmosphere.[5][6]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise andwill change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probablyincluding expansion of subtropical deserts.[7] The continuing retreatof glaciers, permafrost and sea ice is expected, with warming beingstrongest in the Arctic. Other likely effects include increases in theintensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, andchanges in agricultural yields.

Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, andwhat actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions;adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse globalwarming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhousegas emissions.

11/13/2009 Global warming - Wikipedia, the free …

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming 1/24

Two millennia of mean surfacetemperatures according to

different reconstructions, eachsmoothed on a decadal scale.The unsmoothed, annual value

for 2004 is also plotted forreference.

Contents1 Temperature changes2 Radiative forcing

2.1 Greenhouse gases2.2 Aerosols and soot2.3 Solar variation

3 Feedback4 Climate models5 Attributed and expected effects

5.1 Environmental5.2 Economic

6 Responses to global warming6.1 Mitigation6.2 Adaptation6.3 Geoengineering

7 Debate and skepticism8 See also9 Notes10 References11 Further reading12 External links

Temperature changesMain article: Temperature record

The most commonly discussed measure of global warming is the trend inglobally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a lineartrend, this temperature rose by 0.74°C ±0.18°C over the period 1906-2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almostdouble that for the period as a whole (0.13°C ±0.03°C per decade, versus0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated toaccount for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.[8]

Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellitetemperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relativelystable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally-varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.

Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurementsbecame available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of adegree.[9] Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unitconcluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.[10][11] Temperatures in 1998 were unusuallywarm because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year.[12] Global temperature issubject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative



Greenhouse effect schematicshowing energy flows between

space, the atmosphere, and earth'ssurface. Energy exchanges areexpressed in watts per square

meter (W/m2).

stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[13] [14]

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast asocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[15] Ocean temperatures increase moreslowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the oceanloses more heat by evaporation.[16] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemispherebecause it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to theice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemispherethis does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough tomix between hemispheres.[17]

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can takecenturies or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhousegases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[18]

Radiative forcingMain article: Radiative forcing

External forcing is a term used in climate science for processes external to the climate system (though notnecessarily external to Earth). Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as changes ingreenhouse gas concentrations, changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbitaround the Sun.[2] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cyclesvary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changesobserved in the past century.

Greenhouse gases

Main articles: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission ofinfrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's loweratmosphere and surface. It was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[19]

Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed, even by thosewho do not agree that the recent temperature increase is attributable tohuman activity. The question is instead how the strength of the greenhouseeffect changes when human activity increases the concentrations ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect ofabout 33 °C (59 °F).[20][C] The major greenhouse gases are watervapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect;carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4),which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7percent.[21][22] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they arecomposed of liquid water or ice and so are considered separately fromwater vapor and other gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount



Recent atmospheric carbondioxide (CO2) increases. Monthly

CO2 measurements displayseasonal oscillations in overall

yearly uptrend; each year'smaximum occurs during the

Northern Hemisphere's late spring,and declines during its growingseason as plants remove some

atmospheric CO2.

Ship tracks over the AtlanticOcean on the east coast of the

United States. The climaticimpacts from aerosol forcingcould have a large effect onclimate through the indirect

effect.

of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiativeforcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrousoxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36%and 148% respectively since the mid-1700s.[23] These levels are muchhigher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for whichreliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[24] Less direct geologicalevidence indicates that CO2 values this high were last seen about 20million years ago.[25] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularlydeforestation.[26]

CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The future rate ofrise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. Accordingly, theIPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to970 ppm by the year 2100.[27] Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissionspast 2100 if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[28]

The destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation to globalwarming. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduction ofstratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.[29]

Tropospheric ozone contributes to surface warming.[30]

Aerosols and soot

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradianceat the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960to the present.[31] The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced byvolcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by increasingthe reflection of incoming sunlight. James Hansen and colleagues haveproposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that netwarming has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases.[32]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation,aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[33] Sulfate aerosols actas cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more andsmaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficientlythan clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[34] This effect also causesdroplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops andmakes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.[35]

Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols directlyabsorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. Regionally (but not globally), as muchas 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[36] Whendeposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat thesurface.[37] The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southernhemisphere.[38]



Solar variation over the lastthirty years.

Solar variation

Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes.[39]

Although solar forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for asignificant part of global warming in recent decades,[40][41] a few studiesdisagree, such as a recent phenomenological analysis that indicates thecontribution of solar forcing may be underestimated.[42]

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways.While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases areexpected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warmthe stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool thestratosphere.[2] Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been steady or cooling since1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satelliteera show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[43]

A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic raysthat may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[44] Other researchhas found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[45][46] A recent study concluded thatthe influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observedchanges in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[47]

FeedbackMain article: Effects of global warming

A positive feedback is a process that amplifies some change. Thus, when a warming trend results in effects thatinduce further warming, the result is a positive feedback; when the warming results in effects that reduce theoriginal warming, the result is a negative feedback. The main positive feedback in global warming involves thetendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. The main negative feedback inglobal warming is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared radiation: as the temperature of a bodyincreases, the emitted radiation increases with the fourth power of its absolute temperature.

Water vapor feedback If the atmosphere is warmed, the saturation vapor pressure increases, and the amount of water vapor inthe atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vaporcontent makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more watervapor (a positive feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a muchlarger greenhouse effect than that due to CO2 alone. Although this feedback process causes an increasein the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreasesslightly because the air is warmer.[48]

Cloud feedback Warming is expected to change the distribution and type of clouds. Seen from below, clouds emit infraredradiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen from above, clouds reflect sunlight andemit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming orcooling depends on details such as the type and altitude of the cloud. These details were poorly observedbefore the advent of satellite data and are difficult to represent in climate models.[48]



Aerial photograph showing asection of sea ice. The lighterblue areas are melt ponds and

the darkest areas are openwater, both have a lower

albedo than the white sea ice.The melting ice contributes to

the ice-albedo feedback.

Calculations of global warmingprepared in or before 2001

from a range of climate

Lapse rate The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. Since emission of infraredradiation varies with temperature, longwave radiation escaping to space from the relatively cold upperatmosphere is less than that emitted toward the ground from the lower atmosphere. Thus, the strength ofthe greenhouse effect depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height. Both theoryand climate models indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature decrease with height,producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the greenhouse effect. Measurements of the rateof temperature change with height are very sensitive to small errors in observations, making it difficult toestablish whether the models agree with observations.[49]

Ice-albedo feedback When ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land andopen water are on average less reflective than ice and thus absorbmore solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causesmore melting, and this cycle continues.[50]

Arctic methane release Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane inthe arctic.[51] Methane released from thawing permafrost such as thefrozen peat bogs in Siberia, and from methane clathrate on the seafloor, creates a positive feedback.[52]

Reduced absorption of CO2 by the oceanic ecosystems Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon is expected to declineas the oceans warm. This is because warming reduces the nutrientlevels of the mesopelagic zone (about 200 to 1000 m deep), whichlimits the growth of diatoms in favor of smaller phytoplankton that arepoorer biological pumps of carbon.[53]

CO2 release from oceans Cooler water can absorb more CO2. As ocean temperatures rise some of this CO2 will be released. Thisis one of the main reasons why atmospheric CO2 is lower during an ice age. There is a greater mass ofCO2 contained in the oceans than there is in the atmosphere.

Gas release Release of gases of biological origin may be affected by global warming, but research into such effects isat an early stage. Some of these gases, such as nitrous oxide released from peat, directly affectclimate.[54] Others, such as dimethyl sulfide released from oceans, have indirect effects.[55]

Climate modelsMain article: Global climate model

The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical modelsbased on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics andradiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes aspossible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because ofthe constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge ofthe climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations ofmodels for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric modelfor air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; anocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of oceanwaters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and



from a range of climatemodels under the SRES A2emissions scenario, which

assumes no action is taken toreduce emissions and

regionally divided economicdevelopment.

The geographic distribution ofsurface warming during the

21st century calculated by theHadCM3 climate model if a

business as usual scenario isassumed for economic growthand greenhouse gas emissions.

In this figure, the globallyaveraged warming

corresponds to 3.0 °C(5.4 °F).

moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some modelsalso include treatments of chemical and biological processes.[56] Warmingdue to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of themodels; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gaseswith radiative transfer and other physical processes in the models.[57]

Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on thegreenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specificgreenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on themodel used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources ofuncertainty in present-generation models.[58]

Global climate model projections of future climate most often have usedestimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report onEmissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, somemodels also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows apositive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observationalstudies also show a positive feedback.[59][60][61] Including uncertainties infuture greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCCanticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the end ofthe 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[1]

Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate changeby comparing the observed changes to those that the models project fromvarious natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do notunambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominatedby man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[62]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[63] Currentclimate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, butdo not simulate all aspects of climate.[26] While a 2007 study by David Douglass and colleagues found that themodels did not accurately predict observed changes in the tropical troposphere,[64] a 2008 paper published bya 17-member team led by Ben Santer noted errors and incorrect assumptions in the Douglass study, and foundinstead that the models and observations were not statistically different.[65] Not all effects of global warming areaccurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage hasbeen faster than that predicted.[66]

Attributed and expected effects

Environmental

Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming

It usually is impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming.Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overalldistribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency andintensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to includeglacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effectson both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, alreadybeing attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that



Sparse records indicate thatglaciers have been retreatingsince the early 1800s. In the1950s measurements beganthat allow the monitoring of

glacial mass balance, reportedto the WGMS and the NSIDC.

Projected temperature increasefor a range of stabilization

scenarios (the colored bands).The black line in middle of the

shaded area indicates 'bestestimates'; the red and the blue

lines the likely limits. FromIPCC AR4

glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sealevel rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequencyof extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming.[67]

Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increasedprecipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and some adversehealth effects from warmer temperatures.[68]

Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated bygrowing population densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience some benefits,such as fewer cold-related deaths.[69] A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found inthe report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[67] The newer IPCC FourthAssessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropicalcyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surfacetemperature (see Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated bythe quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trendin the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.[1]

Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in 2090-2100 relativeto 1980-1999,[1] new trade routes resulting from arctic shrinkage,[70] possible thermohaline circulation slowing,increasingly intense (but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme weather events,[71] reductions in the ozone layer,changes in agriculture yields, changes in the range of climate-dependent disease vectors,[72] which has beenlinked to increases in the prevalence of malaria and dengue fever,[73] and ocean oxygen depletion.[74] Increasedatmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.[75] CO2 dissolved in the ocean reactswith water to form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to havedecreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004,[76] and is projected to decreaseby a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2.[1][77] Heat and carbon dioxide trappedin the oceans may still take hundreds years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventuallyreduced.[6] Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinctionconcerns and disruptions in food webs.[78] One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal andplant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.[79] However, few mechanisticstudies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change,[80] and one study suggests that projectedrates of extinction are uncertain.[81]

Economic

Main articles: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy

The IPCC reports the aggregate net economic costs of damages fromclimate change globally (discounted to the specified year). In 2005, theaverage social cost of carbon from 100 peer-reviewed estimates is US$12per tonne of CO2, but range -$3 to $95/tCO2. The IPCC's gives these costestimates with the caveats, "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significantdifferences in impacts across sectors, regions and populations and verylikely underestimate damage costs because they cannot include many non-quantifiable impacts."[82]

One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the SternReview, written by Sir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weathermight reduce global gross domestic product by up to one percent, and that in



IPCC AR4.

Carbon capture and storage(CCS) is an approach to

mitigation. Emissions may besequestered from fossil fuelpower plants, or removed

during processing in hydrogenproduction. When used onplants, it is known as bio-

energy with carbon captureand storage.

a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by theequivalent of 20 percent.[83] The response to the Stern Review was mixed.The Review's methodology, advocacy and conclusions were criticized by several economists, including RichardTol, Gary Yohe,[84] Robert Mendelsohn[85] and William Nordhaus.[86] Economists that have generallysupported the Review include Terry Barker,[87] William Cline,[88] and Frank Ackerman.[89] According toBarker, the costs of mitigating climate change are 'insignificant' relative to the risks of unmitigated climatechange.[90]

According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), economic sectors likely to face difficultiesrelated to climate change include banks, agriculture, transport and others.[91] Developing countries dependentupon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming.[92]

Responses to global warmingThe broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led somenations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can bedivided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global warming, adaptation to the changing globalenvironment, and geoengineering to reverse global warming.

Mitigation

Main article: Mitigation of global warming

Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rateof anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. Models suggest that mitigation canquickly begin to slow global warming, but that temperatures will appreciablydecrease only after several centuries.[93] The world's primary internationalagreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the Kyoto Protocol, anamendment to the UNFCCC negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now coversmore than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gasemissions.[94] As of June 2009, only the United States, historically theworld's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty.The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a futuretreaty to succeed the current one.[95] UN negotiations are now gatheringpace in advance of a meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.[96]

Many environmental groups encourage individual action against globalwarming, as well as community and regional actions. Others have suggesteda quota on worldwide fossil fuel production, citing a direct link between fossilfuel production and CO2 emissions.[97][98]

There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limitedmoves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European UnionEmission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap theiremissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon PollutionReduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce aneconomy-wide cap and trade scheme.[99]

The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costsand benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one



Per capita greenhouse gasemissions in 2000, including

land-use change.

Per country greenhouse gasemissions in 2000, including

technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are keypractices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture,that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxideequivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percentdecrease in global gross domestic product.[100]

Adaptation

Main article: Adaptation to global warming

A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming. These measures range fromthe trivial, such as the installation of air-conditioning equipment, to major infrastructure projects, such asabandoning settlements threatened by sea level rise.

Measures including water conservation,[101] water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices,[102] construction offlood defences,[103] Martian colonization,[104] changes to medical care,[105] and interventions to protectthreatened species[106] have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the possible opportunities foradaptation of infrastructure has been published by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers.[107]

Geoengineering

Main article: Geoengineering

Geoengineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large scale to suit humanneeds.[108] An example is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere,usually through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture.[109] Solar radiationmanagement reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur aerosols [110] orcool roof techniques.[111]. No large-scale geoengineering projects have yet been undertaken.

Debate and skepticismMain articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming

See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Climate change denial

Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming hasresulted in political and economic debate.[112] Poor regions, particularlyAfrica, appear at greatest risk from the projected effects of global warming,while their emissions have been small compared to the developed world.[113]

The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions hasbeen used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a previous AustralianGovernment.[114] (Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.[115])Another point of contention is the degree to which emerging economies suchas India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions.[116] TheU.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then Chinashould do the same[117][118] since China's gross national CO2 emissions nowexceed those of the U.S.[119][120][121] China has contended that it is lessobligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and percapita emissions are less that of the U.S.[122] India, also exempt, has madesimilar contentions.[123]



land-use change.In 2007-2008 the Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of theworld's population were unaware of global warming, developing countries less aware than developed, andAfrica the least aware. Awareness does not equate to belief that global warming is a result of human activities.Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities whileAfrica, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in theopposite.[124] In the western world, the concept and the appropriate responses are contested. Nick Pidgeon ofCardiff University finds that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each sideof the Atlantic" where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates whetherclimate change is happening.[125]

Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs that suchchanges would entail.[100] Using economic incentives, alternative and renewable energy have been promoted toreduce emissions while building infrastructure.[126][127] Business-centered organizations such as the CompetitiveEnterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have downplayed IPCCclimate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their ownprojections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[128][129][130][131] Environmental organizations and publicfigures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation tochanges in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[132] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back theirefforts in recent years,[133] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[134]

Some global warming skeptics in the science or political community dispute all or some of the global warmingscientific consensus, questioning whether global warming is actually occurring, whether human activity hascontributed significantly to the warming, and on the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming. Prominentglobal warming skeptics include Richard Lindzen, Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, John Christy, and RobertBalling.[135][136][137]

See alsoGlossary of climate changeIndex of climate change articles

NotesA. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment

Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These errorbounds are constructed with a 90% uncertainty interval.

B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil,Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand,Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexicoand South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences haveissued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, AmericanChemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American MeteorologicalSociety, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological andOceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorologicaland Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, EuropeanScience Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society ofLondon-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers(http://www.nagt.org/index.html) , National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and WorldMeteorological Organization.

C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F)



compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33°C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).

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Further readingAssociation of British Insurers (2005-06) (PDF). Financial Risks of Climate Change(http://www.climatewise.org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf) .http://www.climatewise.org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf.Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on wateravailability in snow-dominated regions(http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html) " (abstract). Nature 438 (7066):303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature04141) . PMID 16292301(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16292301) .http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html.Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ;Falkowski, PG et al. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity(http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf) " (PDF). Nature 444(7120): 752–755. doi:10.1038/nature05317 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature05317) . PMID 17151666(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17151666) .http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf.Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Changeon Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.(http://www.springerlink.com/content/m6308777613702q0/) ". Climate Change 58 (1–2): 149–170.doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1023%2FA%3A1023459216609) .http://www.springerlink.com/content/m6308777613702q0/.Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005) (PDF). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004Snapshot (http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf) . Institute of Arctic andAlpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145 (http://www.worldcat.org/issn/0069-6145) .http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf.Emanuel, K (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.(ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf) " (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–688.doi:10.1038/nature03906 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature03906) . PMID 16056221(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16056221) .ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.Hansen, James; et al. (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications(http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's%20Energy%20Balance.pdf)" (PDF). Science 308 (5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252(http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1110252) . PMID 15860591(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15860591) .http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's%20Energy%20Balance.pdf.Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of ElevatedMethane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214–1217.



doi:10.1126/science.1079601 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1079601) . PMID 12595688(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12595688) .Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm) ". BBC.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm.Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations,1700–1992 (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1993JGR....9818895H&db_key=AST&data_type=HTML&format=&high=448f267ff303582) ".Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906. doi:10.1029/93JA01944(http://dx.doi.org/10.1029%2F93JA01944) . http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1993JGR....9818895H&db_key=AST&data_type=HTML&format=&high=448f267ff303582.Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The GreenhouseCatastrophe (http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf) " (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6).http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf.Kenneth, James P.; et al. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The ClathrateGun Hypothesis (https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960) . American GeophysicalUnion. https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960.Keppler, Frank; et al. (2006-01-18). "Global Warming - The Blame Is not with the Plants(http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index.html) ". Max Planck Society.http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index.html.Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun'stotal and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate(http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002GeoRL..29x..77L) " (abstract). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24):2224. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1029%2F2002GL015880) .http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002GeoRL..29x..77L.Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primarysources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1414406258.Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today'ssolar activity? (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf) "(PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045(http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature04045) . PMID 16049429(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16049429) .http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf.Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records(http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf) " (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675–677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1107046) . PMID 15746388(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15746388) . http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf.Oreskes, N (2004-12-03). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change(http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf) " (PDF). Science 306 (5702): 1686.doi:10.1126/science.1103618 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1103618) . PMID 15576594(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15576594) .http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf.Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February 2005). "Climate changeand the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe(http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/nrmicro1090_fs.html) " (abstract). Nature ReviewsMicrobiology 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnrmicro1090) .PMID 15685226 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15685226) .http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/nrmicro1090_fs.html.Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice(http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss) ". The NewYork Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss.Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future



(http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/) . New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/.Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control ofClimate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sunduring recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years.(http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf) " (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084–1087.doi:10.1038/nature02995 (inactive 2009-09-18). PMID 15510145(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15510145) . http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf.Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)(http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf) " (PDF). Nature 436: E4–E5.doi:10.1038/nature04046 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature04046) .http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf.Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests MarineClathrates Are Stable". Science 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235(http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1121235) . PMID 16469923(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16469923) .Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleationunder atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463(2078): 385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1098%2Frspa.2006.1773) .(onlineversion requires registration)Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling fromSiberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature 443 (7107): 71–75.doi:10.1038/nature05040 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature05040) . PMID 16957728(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16957728) .Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiancesince 1713 (http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf) " (PDF). Astrophysical Journal625: 522–538. doi:10.1086/429689 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1086%2F429689) .http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf.

External linksResearch

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch) — collection of IPCC reportsClimate Change at the National Academies (http://www.nas.edu/climatechange) — repository for reports,workshops, and meetingsNature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html) — free-access web resourceMet Office: Climate change (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/) — UK National Weather ServiceGlobal Science and Technology Sources on the Internet (http://www.istl.org/01-fall/internet.html) —extensive commented list of internet resourcesEducational Global Climate Modelling (http://edgcm.columbia.edu/) (EdGCM) — research-quality climatechange simulatorDISCOVER (http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/) — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASAGlobal Warming Art (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) — collection of figures and images

Educational

What Is Global Warming? (http://green.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview.html) — by National GeographicGlobal Warming Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html)— from NOAAUnderstanding Climate Change - Frequently Asked Questions(http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/faqs.jsp) — from UCARGlobal Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth (http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/) — from NASA's JPL andCaltech



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OurWorld 2.0 (http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/) — from the United Nations UniversityPew Center on Global Climate Change (http://www.pewclimate.org/) — business and politicsBest Effort Global Warming Trajectories - Wolfram Demonstrations Project(http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/BestEffortGlobalWarmingTrajectories/) — by Harvey LamKoshland Science Museum - Global Warming Facts and Our Future (http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/) — graphical introduction from National Academy of SciencesThe Discovery of Global Warming - A History (http://www.aip.org/history/climate) — by Spencer R.Weart from The American Institute of Physics

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