global warming and the nuclear wedge
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change and the Nuclear Wedge
Climate change frames the issue Scales of problem: Energy - Time Pacala-Socolow plan for sustainable Carbon Nuclear wedge Renewable wedge Summary
Jim McNeilCSM Physics
Source material from N. Lewis, DOE (EIA,NREL), Calif. En. Com., and Carbon Mit. Initiative
Symposium: “Nuclear Power: Hype or Hope”Center for Energy and Environmental Security, CU Law
November 5, 2009
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Nathan Lewis, Cal Tech, http://nsl.caltech.edu
Framing the issue:
$$ = Energy = Carbon
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Marty Hoffert, NYU
Framing the Issue
Carbon
Climate impact
Time scale to act is short ~50 years
~ 1 power plant lifetime
Population control
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90% fossil
40% electricity
21% U.S.(5% population)
Energy Scale = Peta (10^15) Watt-hrs
U.S.
Energy Information Agency - http://EIA.doe.gov
U. S. has an obligation to lead
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Economics of Electric Power
Market force drives greater use of fossil fuels
Only government can put climate costs on the utilities’ balance sheets
Energy Information Agency - http://EIA.doe.gov
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Pacala & Socolow, Princeton
Stabilizes at 550 ppm
Pacala-Socolow Roadmap
Carbon
~$GWP
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Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)
CO2 Capture & Storage (3)
Stabilization Triangle
Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil Storage (2)
Fuel Switching(1)
4 Categories of viable or “near viable” Wedges
Nuclear Fission (1)
2007 2057
8 GtC/y
16 GtC/y
TriangleStabilization
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Nuclear Electricity
Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055
The rate of installation required for a wedge from nuclear power is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.
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Issues with Nuclear Power
ProliferationWaste disposal
Operational SafetyCost
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Proliferation
Not an issue with major nuclear powers:
U.S., Europe, Russia, China, India, (Japan)
Generate 70% of World’s Electric Power
Continued strong non-proliferation controls
Energy Information Agency - http://EIA.doe.gov
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Operational Safety
Chernyobl: criticality event caused by positive feedback design flaw
Three Mile Island: core melt induced by operator error
All modern reactors have negative feedback design
Very highly unlikely with new passively-safe reactor designs
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Issues with Nuclear Power: Waste
Natural reactors 2 billion years ago near Oklo, Gabon, West Africa. Plutonium has migrated 10 feet
Nuclear waste disposal is a NIMBY, not technical, issue.
Nuclear waste is a carcinogen requiring containment
Better solution – Don’t bury it – “burn” it!
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Gen IV - Smart Nuclear Power:Integral Fast Reactor
Burns usual “waste” - vastly reduces true waste volume Burned waste is safer
Vastly increase fuel supply Minimal proliferation risk – blocks both paths to bomb
Hansen: .“Fourth generation nuclear power has the potential to provide safe base-load electric power with negligible CO2 emissions.”
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20081121_Obama.pdf
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Issues with Nuclear Power: Cost
Size matters - If it doesn’t have a “giga” in front, it won’t really impact Carbon
Size (MW)
1350 50
100
80
50
California Energy Commission – June 2007
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Renewable Wedge
ReliabilityDistributionVariability
NREL Report“20% Wind by 2030”
Issues with Wind
Just do it!
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Issues with Renewables: Distribution
Wind resource not located near consumers
NREL
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Transmission Lines 12,650 new miles ~ $20 billion
Upgrades to ~100,000 miles of existing lines
NREL: “20% by 2030”, p, 96
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Issues with Wind: Variability Wind/solar resource inherently intermittent (mitigated by large coupled electric grid)
Storage: large scale energy storage not yet availableBackup build more Carbon-generating gas plants
Hansen: “… it would be dangerous to proceed under the presumption that we will soon have all-renewable electric power.” op. cit.
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Summary Carbon is the transcendent challenge
Pacala-Socolow - roadmap to Carbon sustainability
Renewables have a role
Issues/risks with nuclear power are manageable
Energy scale is HUGE – Time scale is shortIn crisis now
Nuclear power has a role – the nuclear wedge
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“Questions” ?