global trends in online education. threats and opportunities
DESCRIPTION
Online learning trends. Global. About ICDE, International Council for Open and Distance Education. The Big Picture. Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world.The growth in higher education is massive. The change is dramatic. MOOCs are peaking. Numbers of MOOCs. Innovation in Education. Example from US online 2014. Example from ECAR 2013. Analysis of driving forces. Analysis of Opportunities. The small text, which you should read.TRANSCRIPT
Global trends in distance and onlineeducation: threats and
opportunities for providersPretoria, 7 February 2014
Gard TitlestadSecretary General
International Council For Open and Distance Education, ICDE
• The leading global membership organization for open, distance and online education
• An NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the attainment of quality education for all
• ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the learner must be central.
• Members in all regions of the world
25 Years SupportFrom Norway
The BIG picture
The BIG Picture
• Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world
IndiaSweden
Russia
South America
The US
AfricaAustralia
China
The BIG picture
• The growth in higher education is massive
20442030
320
4002007 - 2030
Mill. students
EU/OECD projections the need for HEby 2030: 400 mill.
The BIG picture
• The changes in higher education is dramatic
The BIG picture
• MOOC took the world (?) with storm, peaked, and opened up for massive innovation in education
Coursera ”Learning Hubs”
Where?
Numbers per February 2014
http://openeducationeuropa.eu/en/european_scoreboard_moocs
Numbers per February 2014
The BIG picture
• Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning are converging => Blended
BlendedODLCampus
• And as a result – an even more diverse higher education landscape……
The BIG picture
• Three streams work in parallel:
– Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile: freedom from distance, mobile broadband: freedom from location
– New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new opportunities for student supportive teaching
– New knowledge about the brain and learning, new knowledge in neurosciences
The BIG picture
• We are in the beginning (of the beginning) – example: mobile technology
We are in the beginning of the beginning
State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org
African Undersea Cables
nov. 2013
http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/
We are in the beginning of the
beginning
And meet the challenges:
The Governments moves…..
Ref. Yang Zhijian, president Open University of China, ICDE world Conference, Tianjin, Kina 2013
The CONCRETE example
January 2014
2013 (ECAR)
Who take MOOC ? 2013 (ECAR)
Paul Stacey, Associate Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons, Oktober 2013
MOOC or MOC
The BIG trends
Openknowledge
Societal needs
Technology
Students needs and expectations
OER
Cost
Trends, within
the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation
HE needs – 1 U a week
Demographics
Globalisation
Enabling economic growth
Access
Open Access
eInfrrastructureseScience
Automation
Robots Sensors
2020 – 80% connectedInternet of things Open Research
Open Data
Open Innovation
US quadruppling
Southern Europe….
Developing economies
ICT Habitus
Flexibility
Employability
Lifelong
Disruptive Innovations
The BIG change?
Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment
37% of Danish jobs classified with high probability for being phased out
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less
The future of jobs; The onrushing wave
Technology and jobs; Coming to an office near youhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready
http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner
http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm
The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?About 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk.http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314
The BIGGER opportunities
”For the first time in human history we have the tools to enable everyone to attain all the education they desire.”
(Wiley, Green, & Soares, 2012)
Dramatically bringing down the cost of education with OER: How open education resources unlock the door to
free learning.
The next years
• Open, distance, online and eLearning – enables:
• Equal, easy and affordable access• Quality Higher education• Better learning outcome• Student success
• And the threats? The other way around…..
The small TEXT
MOOC in an international perspective: New global agenda for innovation
in higher education • 1) Goverment should provide a holistic, favorable framework for open and
online learning and in line with the values of UNESCO. Intesive should be established for wanted direction. Dialogue with stakeholders, in particular HEI. Specific goals to be set. OER in line with the UNESCO declaration a part of the framework.
• 2) Support and facilitation of Leadership for change to a more open and online education. Competencies to be build.
• 3) Incentives and support for faculty and teachers change processes, competencies and working environment to acheive a more open and online education.
• 4) Framework and methodologies that put the learner in the centre. • 5) Cooperation across institutions, and countries on content and platforms for a
more open and online education, hereunder MOOC. • 6) Interoperability between solutions.• 7) Concrete goals and plans for research and innovation within the field, well
anchored at the institutions concerned..
Dr Qian Tang, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO (8/11/2013).It is necessary to repeat the confirmation of fundamental principles:
• Education is– A fundamental human rights– A public good– A basis for man's attainment of peace, sustainable development, gender
equality and responsible global citizenship– A key factor in reducing inequality and poverty.
• And further: Imperative for Education for post 2015 agenda must be:– Equitable access to education for all and at all levels– Quality of education and learning– Fairness– Gender equality– Lifelong learning