global oil trends

8/12/2019 Global Oil Trends

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Global Petroleum Issues


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Overview

Oil fuels world commerce 40% of global primary energy demand

Current demand ~22 billion bbl/yr

IEA & EIA predict rapidly rising demand Major production capacity needed

Reserves depleting fast

IEA International Energy Agency

EIA Energy Information Administration


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US Production

1970 peaked at 9.1 billion bbl/yr (1.4 billion m3)

Decline began in 1970s 1977 levelled off at 8.2 billion bbl/yr

1980 decline halted by boom in prices

1986 OPEC producers collapsed price

Prospects declined in mature US fields

Frontier (Alaska) closed to drilling

1993 Increased dependence on OPEC oil

1994 Gulf war vulnerability of Saudi supply


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World Supply

World endowment ~6000 billion bbl

Recoverable reserves ~2300 billion bbl

Technology may increase to ~3900 billion bbl

OPEC (mainly Middle East) 53%

OECD/OAS (W. Europe / Americas) 24%

Former Soviet Block 15%

China 4%

Rest of the World 4%


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Reserves and Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

WORLD OPEC OECD/OAS FORMERSOVIET

CHINA OTHER

BillionB

arrels

Recoverable Reserves

Total Reserves

Inferred Reserves

Proved Reserves

Cumulative Production


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World Production

World cumulative production to 2000 was

~811 billion bbl or about 35% of recoverablereserves

billion bbl % produced

OPEC 346 28 OECD/OAS 278 51

Former Soviet Block 125 36

China 25 29 Rest of the World 37 42


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Reserves and Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


CHINA OTHER

BillionB

arrels

Cumulative Production

Inferred Reserves

Proved Reserves


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Reserves

Total global reserves are an estimateof the total oil originally in place (OOIP)

Proved reserves are those established

by geologists/engineers that areconventionally recoverable

Inferred reserves are those that may

be recovered with advanced technology(this category may expand over time)


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World Recoverable Reserves

OPEC

60%OECD/OAS

18%

FORMER SOVIET

15%

CHINA

4%

OTHER

3%


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Life of Reserves

Annual world production is ~21 billion bbl

By dividing the proven and inferred reserves(billion bbl) by the current production rates(billion bbl/yr), estimates of reserve life can

be obtained. For the world as a whole proved reserves

have a life of ~39 years with inferred reserves

for a further ~39 years for a total of


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Lifetime of Reserves

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


CHINA OTHER

Lifein

Years

Inferred

Proved


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Location of World Reserves

OECD/OAS reserves are most depleted(>50%) and have a short life (~40 years atcurrent rates)

The majority of the reserves (60%) are in theformer OPEC countries in the Persian Gulf

These reserves can be produced at currentrates for more than 100 years.

Former Soviet block reserves also have along life (> 100 years) but represent


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Super Giants

Most petroleum is produced from a few (~40)

super-giant fields, fields holding over 500billion barrels.

Because of their size, super-giant fields were

easily discovered. In the continental United States it is certain

that no super-giant fields remain to bediscovered.

A super-giant or two might lie in the Alaskanor Canadian Arctic.


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Middle East Oil

1169614820.74Kuwait

759841570.81UAE

5310239621.30Iran

479*12535900.19*Iraq

552871421452.92Saudi Arabia

R/PTotalInferredProvedAnnual

Production

Country

* Production limited by embargo

All units are billion barrels


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OPEC Reserve Estimates It is possible that OPEC reserves have been

inflated for political reasons

Reserve estimates were increasedsignificantly in the late 80s (when OPECquotas were tied to reserves)

9795Kuwait

9833UAE

9348Iran

10047Iraq

258169Saudi Arabia

1989 Est.1986 Est.Country


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2002 Reserve Estimates Canadian Oil Sands have the potential to be

a major factor.

Assuming 20% of Oil Sands OOIP can berecovered the reserves might be:

714221935Middle East (Total)

180

895

CumulativeProduction

287376Saudi Arabia

81261USA

321326Canada (Oil Sands)

RemainingReserves

EstimatedReserves

Country


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Iran Oil History

1908 Oil discovered in SW Iran

1914 Production expanded during and after WWI

1939 Production fell sharply at the start of WWII 1943 Production reopened by Anglo-Iranian Oil Co.

1951 Iranian oil industry nationalized

1954 Working agreement between BP (formerlyAIOC) and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)

1973 Iran took full control of national oil industry

1973-1978 Five super-giant fields discovered 1979 Production fell in Iranian revolution

1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war limited production


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Saudi Arabia Oil History 1933 Saudi concession granted to Arabian

American Oil Company (ARAMCO)

1938 First commercial discoveries 1948 Ghawar discovery - largest field in the world 82

billion bbls (13 billion m3)

1948-1955 Ten super-giant fields discovered 1956 National oil company formed

1965 Saudi Arabia overtook Kuwait as largest

producer 1974 Saudi government purchased majority holding

in ARAMCO

1988 Saudi ARAMCO fully nationalized


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Regional Map


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Regional Air Photo


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Geologic Setting Arabian-Iranian basin is underlain by

Precambrian basement

Wide platform slow intermittent subsidencewith shallow marine deposition throughoutPaleozoic and Mesozoic

Thick sequence of platform sedimentsdipping gently to E and NE

Tectonic movement in Late Cretaceous finallyeliminated seaway

Folding of Zagros, Taurus and Omanmountains took place at end of Tertiary


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Structural Traps

Large number of N-S trending anticlines andsynclines related to basement uplifts on

platform Many super-giant fields (eg Ghawar) are

contained within structural closures alongthese N-S trends in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia

To N and E the sediments in the deeper partof the basin were folded along NW-SE trends

Overthrusts and tight folding and faulting

occurs in NE Iran Iran-Iraq oilfield follow these NW-SE trending

features


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Jurassic Saudi Reservoirs

Jurassic reservoirs occur in the broad gentlyfolded structures in Saudi Arabia

Most oil is produced from the Late Jurassic ArabFormation consisting of permeable carbonatesand evaporites with a thick anhydrite caprock

Organic-rich mid-Jurassic carbonates are the likelysource rocks

Four sequences of shallowing marine carbonatesand evaporites

Largest oil pools are in the oldest D-cycle

Ghawar is 225 km along strike, covers an area of2250 km2 and has an oil column of 400 m


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Cretaceous Saudi-Kuwaiti Reservoirs

In NE Saudi Arabia the basal Cretaceous unitcontains zones that appear to be source rocks

Cyclic sedimentation predominated in the MiddleCretaceous with the deposition of nonmarinesandstones alternating with shallow marinecarbonates

The sandstones are the primary reservoirs in theNE Saudi fields, including the super-giantSafaniya, the worlds largest offshore oil field.

Burgan is located in Kuwait in a N-S trendingstructure covering and area of over 2000 km2.

Production is from highly-permeable Cretaceous

sandstones


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Tertiary Iranian-Iraqi Reservoirs

In Iraq, the oil fields, including the super-giantKirkuk pool are in younger Eocene and Oligocene

limestone reefs The source rocks are thought to be Creatceous

The principal tectonic feature of Iran is the highly

folded Zagros mountain belt Paralleling the mountain belt are a series of longNW-SE trending asymmetric folds which containthe major oil fields

The main reservoir is the Asmari Formation, areefal limestone of Oligocene to early Mioceneage with an evaporite caprock


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ME Oil PoolsMaps


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Conclusions

Any major expansion of world oil production

must come from the Middle East North America and Europe are depleting

reserves at a rapid rate and production can

only be sustained for a few decades Improvements in technology can substantially

increase inferred reserves (i.e. Oil SandsTechnology)

With world annual demand at ~22 billion bblsproven world reserves will be depleted in < 40years


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SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF INDIA

I. INTERIOR ON LAND BASINS

(a) Undeformed Craton margin basins

Jaisalmer, Assam-Arakan

(b) Fore-deep basins

Punjab, Ganga & upper ASSAM

(c ) Interior Depressions

Vindhyan, Bikaner-NAGAUR,

Cuddapah, Bastar, Chattisgarh

Son-Mahanadi, Damodar,

Pranhita- Godavari & Decean Syneclise


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II. Coastal basins with offshore extension.

a) Divergent margin basins:

i) West coast

Cambay, Bombay offshore, Saurashtra,

Kerala, Laksha-Dweep & Konkan.

ii) East coastBengal, Mahanadi, Krishna-Godavari,

Palar & Cauveri

Bengal, Mahanadi & K.G are delta types superimposed on linear down

faulted graden / rift type basins with an older cycle of sedimentation.

Kutch basin is different from other coastal basins & come under the type

extra-continental downwarp, seperated from Indus basin by an E-W trending

Basement High

b) Convergent margin basin

Andaman basin.


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CATEGORY-I : Proved petroliferius basins with

Commercial production

ASSAM SHELF, BOMBAY OFFSHORE, CAMBAY,

CAUVERY, K-G & TRIPURA-CACHAR.

CATEGORY-II: Basins with known occurrences of

Hydrocarbon but without commercial

Production.

BENGAL, HIMALAYAN FOOT HILLS, JAISALMER,

MAHANADI.


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STATISTICS OF KNOWN TRAP SITUATIONS

TRAP TYPE USA NON COMMUNNISTCOUNTRIES GIANTS

ANTICLINE 65.4% 58.2% 89.1%

FAULT 5.2% 7.8%

UNCONFORMITY 0.7% 6.0% 29.3%

STRATIGRAPHIC 10.2% 16.1 9.4%

COMBINATION 18.5% 11.9%

STATISTICS OF RESERVOIR LITHOLOGY

SANDSTONES 66.8% 61.7% 55.1 %

CARBONATE 31.9 % 32.0 % 41.9 %

FRACTURED SHALE & 1.3% 6.3% 3.0%

IGNEOUS & METAMORPHIC ROCKS


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1 8 6 7 : F i r s t We l l

D r i l le d A t M a k um ,

A s s a m .

1 8 8 9 : F i r s t Pr o d u c e r

We l l D i g b o i # 1 d r i l l e d

b y A R& T Com p a n y .

U n t i l 1 9 5 5 , o n l y

p r i v a t e o i l

c om p a n ie s c a r r i e d

o u t e x p l o r a t i o n o f

h y d r o c a r b o n

r e s o u r c e s .

H i s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u n d


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H i s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u n di s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u n dI nI n 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 5 , Go v e r nm e n t, Go v e r nm e n t

o f In d i a d e c i d e d t oo f In d i a d e c i d e d t o

d e v e l o p t h e o i l a n dd e v e l o p t h e o i l a n d

n a t u r a l g a s r e s o u r c e sn a t u r a l g a s r e s o u r c e sa s p a r t o f t h e Pu b l ica s p a r t o f t h e P u b l i c

Se c t o r d e v e l o pm e n t .Se c t o r d e v e lo pm e n t .

.O i l a n d N a t u r a l Ga s.O i l a n d N a t u r a l Ga s

D i r e c t o r a t e w a s s e t u pD i r e c t o r a t e w a s s e t u p

a r o u n d a n u c l e u s o fa r o u n d a n u c l e u s o f

g e o s c i e n t i s t s f r o m t h eg e o s c i e n t i s t s f r o m t h e

Ge o l o g i c a l Su r v e y o fGe o l o g i c a l Su r v e y o f

I n d i a .I n d i a .


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BOMBAYOFFSHORE

Structural/Combina

tion TrapsDolomitic

Limestone of

Eocene AgeBasal Clastics

Fractured

Basement


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ASSAM

Structural/Combination &Stratigraphic Traps

Basal Sandstone & KopiliPays Of Eocene,

Barail Sands OfOligocene

Tipam & Surma Sands OfMiocene Age

Sylhet Limestone OfEocene Age

Fractured Basement InBoroholla-Champang


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a. Major thrust in deep water sector and Frontier basins.

b. Consolidation of new plays in time and space in

producing basins.

Ex p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sx p l o r a t i o n Fo c u s

Pr o d u c i n g b a s i n sDe e p w a t e r b a s in s

C H I N APA

KISTA

N

NEPAL

DECCANSYNECLISE

MYANMAR

BANGLADESH

Bhutan

BAY

OF

BENGAL

KALADGI

-

12

4

3

56 7

89

1

0

1

11

2

1

3

1

4

1

5

1

6

Fr o n t i e r b a s i n s

C H I N A

PA

KIST

AN

NEPAL

BOMBAY

KRISHNA-GODAVARI

OFFSHORE

MYANMAR

BANGLADESH

ASSAM

SHELF

Bhutan

BAY

OF

BENGAL

RAJASTHAN

CAMBAY

CAUVERY


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SED IMENTARY BAS INAL AREAS

(TOTAL 3 . 1 4 M I L L ION SQ . K M . )

poorly explored

17%

moderate to well

explored

16%

unexplored

40%

exploration

initiated

27%

Ex p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sx p l o r a t i o n Fo c u sFrontier BasinsFrontier BasinsFrontier Basins


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AL TERN AT E EN ERGYLT ERNA TE EN ERGY COAL BED M ETH AN EOAL BED METH AN EA vast CBM reserve to the

tune of 850 BCM to 8

TCM is estimated to belocked up in Indiancoals.

Best quality of coal seams

with adequatethickness and rank(high volatile A-Bgrade to low volatile

bituminous) are knownin the Damoder Valleygrabens.

INDEX

1. Damodar Valley

2. Koel Valley

3. Sone Valley

4. Mahanadi Valley

5. Godavari Valley

6. Satpura Basin

7. Rajmahal

8. Deogarh Hazaribagh Group9. Darjeeling & NEFA

10. Garo Hills

11. Khasi Jaintia Hills

12. Mikir Hil ls

13. Jammu

14. Cambay Basin

15. Kutch

16. Bikaner Basin

17. Jungel Gali

1 to 9 are Lower Gondwanas of Permian age

10 to 17 are of Eocene age

INDEX

1. Damodar Valley

2. Koel Valley

3. Sone Valley

4. Mahanadi Valley

5. Godavari Valley

6. Satpura Basin

7. Rajmahal

8. Deogarh Hazaribagh Group9. Darjeeling & NEFA

10. Garo Hills

11. Khasi Jaintia Hills

12. Mikir Hil ls

13. Jammu

14. Cambay Basin

15. Kutch

16. Bikaner Basin

17. Jungel Gali

1 to 9 are Lower Gondwanas of Permian age

10 to 17 are of Eocene age


Es t im a t ed CBM

r e s o u r c e o f I n d i a is

a b o u t 2 6 2 .5 b c m


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BSR

AL TERN AT E EN ERGY GAS H YDRAT EOn e c u b ic m e t re o f p u r eh y d r a t e c o n t a i n s 1 6 4 m 3

o f m e t h a n e g a s a t ST P .

NA T IONAL GAS HY DRATE PROGRAM ME

WAS LAUNCHED BY TH E MOP& NG I N

1 9 9 7 .

ONGC , STA RTED IN -HOU SE STU D IES

FOR EVA LUA T ION OF GAS HYDRATERESOURCES IN IN D IA N OFFSHORE

AREAS .

BA SED ON THE STUD I ES K G

OFFSHORE AREA HA S BEEN

IDENT I F I ED AS A M ODEL F IELD

LABORATORY .


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