Source: Consensus Economics; World Bank.

Note: Average GDP growth for 2020, based on 59 economies (including 32 advanced economies and 27 EMDEs) for which data for consensus forecasts are available, weighted by GDP in constant 2010 U.S. dollars for 2019. Growth is computed each business day as a moving average of the latest revised forecasts. Horizontal axis shows month and day.

Consensus forecasts of GDP growth for 2020

Overview

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Chart of the Month

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Special Focus: How do epidemics affect productivity?

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Table of Contents

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-6

-3

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6

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

World

Advanced economies

EMDEs

Percent

Global Monthly July 2020

2

September 2019 July 2020

Monthly Highlights

FIGURE 1.B Global activity

FIGURE 1.C Global trade

Source: CPB Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; UNCTAD; World Bank; World Trade Organization. A. Figure shows 7-day moving average. Last observation is July 19, 2020. B. PMI = Purchasing Managers' Index. PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (contraction). Black dashed line indicates expansionary threshold. The Sentix Index represents investors' market expectations over the next month. Last observation is June 2020 for Composite PMI and July 2020 for Sentix Index. C. Trade is the average of import and export volumes. Bars indicate 2020Q2 forecasts for United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Last observation is April 2020 for goods trade.

FIGURE 1.A Global increase in confirmed cases

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Sentix (RHS)

Index, 50+=expansion Index

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2018 2019 2020

CPB goods trade

UNCTAD estimate

WTO estimate

Percent, year-on-year

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United States Brazil

India South Africa

Russia Mexico

World

Cases, thousands

3

September 2019 July 2020

FIGURE 2.B EMDE portfolio flows and EMBI spread

FIGURE 2.A Global stock market

FIGURE 2.C Metal and oil price changes, June 2020

Source: Bloomberg; Institute of International Finance; J.P. Morgan; World Bank. A. HRL = hotels, restaurants, and leisure. Last observation is July 17, 2020. B. EMBI = emerging market bond index. EMBI spread indicates averages. Last observation is June 2020. C. Oil is the average of Brent, Dubai, and WTI. Last observation is June 2020.

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Index, 100=January 1, 2020

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4

September 2019 July 2020

FIGURE 3.B Euro Area retail sales and PMI

FIGURE 3.A Google mobility trends in the United States

FIGURE 3.C Tankan index and industrial production in Japan

Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports; Haver Analytics; World Bank. A. Figure shows 7-day moving averages. Mobility indicators show the percent change from baseline, which is the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the 5-week period January 3-February 6, 2020, based on data from Google. Last observation is July 14, 2020. B. PMI = Purchasing Managers' Index. PMI reflects composite PMI for the Euro Area; readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (contraction). Black dashed line indicates expansionary threshold. Last observation is May 2020 for retail sales and June 2020 for PMI. C. The Tankan index is a business confidence survey in Japan. Figure shows the Tankan index for manufacturing. Industrial production data are end of period. Last observation is 2020Q2 for the Tankan index and May 2020 for industrial production.

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Tankan index

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Percent, year-on-year

5

September 2019 July 2020

FIGURE 4.B PMI in commodity exporters

FIGURE 4.A GDP, industrial production, and retail sales in China

FIGURE 4.C Industrial production and exports in commodity importers

Source: Haver Analytics; National Bureau of Statistics of China; World Bank. A. Year-on-year change of real GDP in 2015 prices. Year-on-year change of total real industrial value added (100=2005) and nominal retail sales. Last observation is 2020Q2 for GDP and June 2020 for industrial production and retail sales. B. Figure shows number of commodity exporters with composite PMI that fulfills the indicated criteria. Sample includes 12 EMDEs. Last observation is June 2020. C. Figure excludes China. Industrial production are seasonally-adjusted real U.S. dollars at 2010 prices and market exchange rates. Aggregate for industrial production calculated using gross value added in nominal U.S. dollars. Exports are seasonally-adjusted nominal U.S. dollars. Last observation is May 2020.

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GDPRetail sales (RHS)Industrial production (RHS)

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declining

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Year-on-year

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September 2019 July 2020

FIGURE 5.B Global mortality rates for selected pandemics

FIGURE 5.A Episodes by type of disaster, worldwide, 1960-2018

FIGURE 5.C Global mortality rates for recent epidemics

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Correlates of War; EM-DAT; Johns Hopkins University; OurWorldInData.org; Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); United Nations; World Bank; World Health Organization. A. Climate disasters include floods and cyclones, biological disasters include epidemics and insect infestations, and geophysical disasters include earthquakes and volcanoes, following EM-DAT definitions. B. Cumulative deaths per million population worldwide. Last observation of death toll for COVID-19 is July 20, 2020. Severe climate disasters are defined as events that led to at least 100 deaths per million population C. Cumulative deaths per million population worldwide.

Special Focus: How do epidemics affect productivity?

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million habitants

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SARS(2003)

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September 2019 July 2020

FIGURE 6.B Effects of epidemics on labor productivity and TFP

FIGURE 6.A Duration of natural disasters and epi-demics

FIGURE 6.C Effects of epidemics on investment and output

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; EM-DAT; Johns Hopkins University; OurWorldInData.org; United Nations; World Bank; World Health Organization. A. The five pandemics and epidemics considered are SARS (2002-03), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014-15), and Zika (2015-16). B.-C. Yellow lines display the range of the estimates with 90 percentile significance. An episode dummy for a specific type of event is 1 if the event occurs at least once (>=1) in a country-year pair and 0 otherwise. Bars show the estimated impacts of the four most severe biological epidemics on output, labor productivity, total factor productivity, and investment levels relative to non-affected EMDEs. The four epidemics considered are SARS (2002-03), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014-15), Zika (2015-16). Swine flu (2009), which coincided with the 2008-09 global financial crisis, is excluded to limit possible confounding effects. The sample includes 116 economies: 30 advanced economies, and 86 EMDEs.

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Natural disasters Epidemic

Mean MedianYears

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t t+1 t+2 t+3

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8

September 2019 July 2020

Recent Prospects Group Publications

Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies

Global Economic Prospects - June 2020

Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2020: Implications of COVID-19 for Commodities

Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences

A Decade since the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies

Recent World Bank Working Papers

Adding Fuel to the Fire : Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Contagious Protests

How Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?

Lives and Livelihoods : Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Debt Intolerance : Threshold Level and Composition

The Sooner, the Better : The Early Economic Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Recent World Bank Reports

Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World : Climate Strategies for Fossil Fuel-Dependent Countries

Handbook of Deep Trade Agreements

Food Safety Handbook : A Practical Guide for Building a Robust Food Safety Management System

Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020 : Rebuilding Investor Confidence in Times of Uncertainty

State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020

Tracking SDG 7 : The Energy Progress Report 2020

TABLE: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: June 21, 2020 - July 20, 2020 Upcoming releases: July 21, 2020 - August 20, 2020

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

Argentina 6/23/20 GDP Q1 -5.4% -1.1% Canada 7/22/20 CPI JUN -0.4%

Netherlands 6/24/20 GDP Q1 -0.4% 1.7% South Korea 7/22/20 GDP Q2 1.4%

United States 6/25/20 GDP Q1 0.3% 2.3% Australia 7/28/20 CPI Q2 2.2%

Germany 6/29/20 CPI JUN 0.9% 0.6% South Africa 7/29/20 CPI JUN 2.1%

Canada 6/30/20 IP APR -19.6% -5.6% United States 7/30/20 GDP Q2 0.3%

Italy 6/30/20 CPI JUN -0.2% -0.2% Euro Area 7/31/20 GDP Q2 -3.1%

Saudi Arabia 6/30/20 GDP Q1 -1.0% -0.3% France 7/31/20 GDP Q2 -5.0%

Spain 6/30/20 GDP Q1 -4.1% 1.8% Italy 7/31/20 GDP Q2 -5.4%

United Kingdom 6/30/20 GDP Q1 -1.7% 1.1% Mexico 7/31/20 GDP Q2 -1.4%

Indonesia 7/1/20 CPI JUN 2.0% 2.2% Spain 7/31/20 GDP Q2 -4.1%

South Korea 7/1/20 CPI JUN 0.0% -0.3% Indonesia 8/5/20 GDP Q2 3.0%

Turkey 7/3/20 CPI JUN 12.6% 11.4% India 8/11/20 IP JUN -34.7%

Russia 7/6/20 GDP Q1 1.6% 2.1% Mexico 8/11/20 IP JUN -30.7%

Mexico 7/9/20 CPI JUN 3.3% 2.8% United Kingdom 8/12/20 GDP Q2 -1.7%

Brazil 7/10/20 CPI JUN 2.1% 1.9% France 8/14/20 CPI JUL 0.2%

Japan 7/14/20 IP MAY -23.4% -15.1% Germany 8/14/20 GDP Q2 -2.3%

France 7/16/20 CPI JUN 0.2% 0.4% Poland 8/14/20 GDP Q2 1.7%

South Africa 7/16/20 GDP Q1 -0.1% -0.5% United States 8/14/20 IP JUL -10.8%

China 7/20/20 GDP Q2 3.2% -6.8% Japan 8/17/20 IP JUN -23.4%

Euro Area 7/20/20 GDP Q1 -3.1% 1.0% Euro Area 8/19/20 CPI JUN 0.2%

India 7/20/20 GDP Q1 3.1% 4.1% United Kingdom 8/19/20 CPI JUL 0.8%