GLOBAL Monday 10 November 2014ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITIES ASSESSMENT

OFFICIAL

Risk Map: Global Weather Events –Significant Impact 7 Day Outlook (Issued 09 NOV 14)

HEADLINES

• Balkans / Southern Italy – Torrential rain expected in coming days – risk of further significant flash flooding / landslides.

• US (NE) – Unseasonably very cold air next week may give risk of sig snowfall and possible transport disruption.

Risk Map of Global Weather Events with Significant Impact and Satellite Image (090900 Z NOV 14)

IMPACT

HIGH

LOW

Dominican Republic / Ecuador /

Columbia / Brazil: Heavy rain, risk of

flooding

Mexico / US Texas: Areas of heavy rain, risk

of flooding

SE India / Bangladesh: Heavy

rain flood risk.

NE USA/SE Canada: cold

plunge & widespread

snow

SCS / Gulf of Thailand: Heavy

rain, risk of flooding

Balkans / Italy: Torrential rain, flood and landslide

risk.

Libya: Dust Storm Risk

Remnant TC 05B

Remnant of TS Nuri

Heavy rain,Snow above

8000 FT

Heavy rain, risk of flooding

WNP

Current• No storms at present.• Nuri near Japan and TC 05B near

India both dissipated in recent days.• Risk of Impact – LOW

TROPICAL CYCLONES

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GLOBAL

Recent Major Flooding Events

• Ethiopia – Oct to PresentHeavy rains starting in September 2014 caused flooding in Ethiopia's Afar, SNNP and Somali regions. By 28 Oct, some 72,680 people had been affected and more than 50,000 people had been displaced, having partially or totally lost their homes and livelihoods. The forecasted good performance of the deyr (October-December) rains in the Somali region poses a continued risk of flooding.

• Somalia – Oct to PresentHeavy rains in CS Somalia and in upper parts of the Shabelle basin in the Somali-Ethiopian border have caused flooding along both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers. The worst-hit areas are along the Shabelle River: Beledweyne in Hiraan region, and in the Middle Shabelle region, where there have been some river breakages. Along the Juba River, Dolo in Gedo region, and Jilib and Jamame in Lower Juba have been affected. Medium humanitarian impact.

• Pakistan – Sep until mid-OctoberHeavy monsoon rainfall during September and the first half of October.367 deaths, 2.5 million affected.107,000 houses damaged, 2.4 million acres of crops affected.Flood magnitude 7.32 (Class 2)Medium humanitarian Impact

FLOODING EVENTS

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Areas of Severe Flood Potential produced by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

GLOBALDROUGHTS / FOOD RISK

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Headlines• Bolivia – An emergency drought situation has been declared in the Santa Cruz region affecting 10,000 families and 20K hectares of mainly corn crop.• West Africa (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) – Ebola related impacts may lead to food insecurity and shortages mainly in market driven urban areas.• Somalia – In northern Gedo Region, the Gu rains ended early and were below average, with above average temperatures. Livestock body conditions are poor.

Current Env Driven Impacts• Ethiopia – Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and hurt the development of already-planted crops in central Ethiopia

• Somalia - In Dawo Pastoral and Southern Agro-pastoral livelihood zones in northern Gedo Region, the Gu rains ended early and were below average in many areas. Temperatures have been above-average since February. Livestock body conditions are poor, and livestock prices are low, limiting incomes. In agro-pastoral areas, almost no crops were harvested in June/July. Given high water prices and low incomes, poor households cannot afford adequate quantities of food and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• Central America – Poor rainfall across central Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, northern Costa Rica and western Nicaragua will hurt Primera crop development. Below-average rainfall is expected for the remainder of the rainy season in Haiti, causing stressed food security. Gov of Honduras has declared an emergency for drought with more than 186,000 people now affected

• West Africa - Ebola related fear disrupt markets and livelihood leading to elevated risk of food insecurity, especially for the urban poor and families with ill members.

• Bolivia - October 2014, six municipalities in Bolivia's eastern Santa Cruz region impacted by drought. An estimated 10,236 families are affected (about 51,180 people) as well as 20,344 hectares - 90 per cent of which is corn crops. The number of people affected is expected to rise to 150,000. Authorities are preparing to deliver emergency assistance.

Source FEWS Net – Famine Early Warning Systems NetworkPlease refer to http://www.fews.net for further information

OFFICIAL

GLOBALVOLCANIC ACTIVITY RISK

Volcanic Update

IcelandBardarbunga Volcano• AVN colour remains AMB• Earthquake activity continues in the area.(Source - IMO)

PhilippinesMayon Volcano• 13 Oct - Philippines Alert level 3 still in effect• Continues to exhibit extremely high unrest• 53,000 people evacuated (Source - OCHA)

ColombiaChiles y Cerro Negro Volcano• 21 Oct – 12000 people were order to evacuate due to seismic activity in the area• Orange alert by UNGRD

GLOBAL

WIND SPEED POPULATION VUNERABILITY ALERT LEVEL

TROPICAL STORM (38-73 mph) < 10M Low / Med / High GREEN

TROPICAL STORM (38-73 mph) < 10M High AMBER

Category 1-2 TC (74-110 mph) > 100K or >10% Med / High AMBER

Category 1-2 TC (74-110 mph) > 1M High RED

Category 3 TC (>110 mph) > 100K or >10% Med / High RED

Category 3 TC (>110 mph) > 1M Low AMBER

Category 4 TC (>131 mph) > 1M Low RED

IMPACT CRITERIA - TC

TC Vulnerability Index specified by the UN / EC Global Disaster Alert and Co-ordination System (GDACS) based on combined indicators as set out on their website:

http://portal.gdacs.org/Models

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