global megatrends
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Global Megatrends. The 2012 Update of Our Future World. Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist. Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy. The Megatrends. 1. More From Less. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The 2012 Update of Our Future WorldGlobal MegatrendsDr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist
Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy
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The Megatrends
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1. More From Less
It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- Neil Armstrong
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Food
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Water 1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water
1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with inadequate capacity to develop
International Water Management Institute
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Energy
Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011
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Minerals
Source: Mudd GM, 2009. The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.
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2. Going, Going … Gone?
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The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.
Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.
Going, Going… Gone?
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Going, Going … Gone?
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
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Going, Going … Gone?Red List
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Red List Extinction Risk Index
1 = No concern
0 = Extinct
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Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
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3. The Silk Highway
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The Silk HighwayIt’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively)
Data source: World Bank
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The Silk HighwayA Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
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The Silk HighwayMaking Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn
Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
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4. Forever YoungAs you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.
- Audrey Hepburn
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Forever YoungThe Ageing Population – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
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Forever YoungRetirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement
Source: Rice Warner
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Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Forever YoungDiabetes and Overweight Projections
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Data Source: World Masters Association
Forever YoungWanting to Stay Active and Engaged
Toronto, Canada
Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark
Brisbane, Australia
Portland, Oregon, USA
Melbourne, Australia
Edmonton, Canada
Sydney, Australia
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5. Virtually Here
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Virtually HereThe Growth of Online Retail
Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales
2012 20155.1 % 10%
National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.
Re
tail
Sa
les
Vo
lum
e
Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Virtually HereCatch me if you can – New models of retail
Image Source: Flickr.com
Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls
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Virtually HereThe Work (Live?) Anywhere City
Currently 6% of Australian workers telecommute, 11% in the US and 10% in Europe (Access Economics).
The Australian Government aims to increase teleworking to 12% of the workforce (DCDBE).
In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.
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Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend
Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM
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Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend
In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month
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6. Great ExpectationsNow, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations.
- Charles Dickens
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Great ExpectationsMaslow’s Hierarchy
Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others
Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering
Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property
Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking
Self
Actualization -
Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem
solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts
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Great ExpectationsDeclining Material Consumption
Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
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Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:1985 - Journal of Consumer Research
1992 - Journal of Consumer Research
1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior
1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal
2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
2009 - Journal of Research in Personality
2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Great ExpectationsThe Jury is out - Experiences make us happier
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Great ExpectationsUtility - A non-linear relationship
Beers (schooners)
Happiness (utility)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Not likely
More likely
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Great ExpectationsIncreasing Importance of the “Whole Package”
Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand
Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension
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Basic Expectations
24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)
33% of people in urban slums
15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry
United Nations, 2012
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Thank youDr Stefan HajkowiczLeader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientistt +61 7 3833 5540e [email protected] www.csiro.au
CSIRO FUTURES