global megacycles and trends: setting the agenda for 21 st century science
DESCRIPTION
Emerging Issues:. New Challenges for Understanding our Changing Planet. Berrien Moore III University of New Hampshire. Global Megacycles and Trends: Setting the Agenda for 21 st Century Science. 370. 360. 350. 340. 330. 320. 310. 1957. 1963. 1969. 1975. 1981. 1987. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Global Megacycles and Trends: Setting the Agenda for 21st Century Science
Emerging Issues:
Berrien Moore III
University of New Hampshire
New Challenges for Understanding our Changing Planet
Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf
Mauna Loa Monthly Carbon Dioxide Record:Keeling Record 1958 - 2000
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
Year
Ca
rbo
n D
iox
ide
(p
pm
v)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Ice core
Historical Atmospheric Carbon Concentration for the Last 1000 Years
Extracted from the Law Dome Ice Core
Source: Etheridge, et.al., Petit, et.al.
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
Car
bo
n C
on
cnet
rati
on
(p
pm
v)
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Year
Polynomial fit
Atmospheric Measurements
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
Tem
per
atu
re V
aria
tio
n (
°C)
Source: Petit, et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
Variation with Time of the Vostok Isotope Temperature Record
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
CO
2 concentration (ppmv)
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
Source: Barnola, et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
Te
mp
era
ture
Va
ria
tio
n (
°C)
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
Source: Barnola, et.al.; Petit et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
Vostok Ice Core CO2 Concentration andTemperature Variation Record
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES / IGBP); IPCC
CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores andAtmospheric CO2 Projection for Next 100 Years
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Vostok RecordLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa RecordIPCC IS92a Scenario
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Principal Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Source: Marland, et.al.
Year
Total
Gas
Liquids
Solids
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
ns
( G
t. C
/yr.
)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Source: Marland, et.al.
Per Capita Emission EstimatesM
etri
c T
on
s o
f C
arb
on
Em
itte
d p
er P
erso
n p
er Y
ear United States
Germany (unified)
Global Average
Peoples Rep. China
India
Year
1950 20001960 1970 1980 1990
3
2
1
0
4
5
6
7
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Source: WHIGCC, 2000
Emissions are likely to increase and become more globally distributed.
Pressure Changing Composition
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Source: IPCC, 2001
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Global C Budget (PgC/y)
1980s 1990s
Atm. Increase 3.3+/-0.1 3.2+/-0.1
Emissions 5.4+/-0.3 6.3+/-0.4
Ocean-Atm. Flux -1.9+/-0.6 -1.7+/-0.5
Land-Atm. Flux* -0.2+/-0.7 -1.4+/-0.7
*partitioned as follows
Land Use 1.7(0.6-2.5) NA
Residual Terrestrial Sink
-1.9(-3.8-0.3) NA
Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Global(NOAA)
CapeGrim(CSIRO)FossilFuel
Pinatubo
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CO2GROWTHRATE
ElNinoLaNina
MaunaLoa(Scripps/NOAA)
Gt.
C p
er y
ear
SO
I
Source: R. Francey (CSIRO)
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19851980 1990 1995 2000
8
6
4
2
30
0
-30
CO2 Annual Growth Rate
Year
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES / IGBP); IPCC
CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores andAtmospheric CO2 Projection for Next 100 Years
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Vostok RecordLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa RecordIPCC IS92a Scenario
Setting the Agenda for 21st Century Science: Global Megacycles and TrendsPreparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Greenhouse Gas Effect
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
IPCC Cover
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0.225
0.200
0.175
0.150
0.125
0.100
0.075
0.050
0.018
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.004
Surface Flux Uncertainties GtC/Mo Using
Simulated Satellite Data
Surface Flux Uncertainties GtC/Mo Using
Current Observational Network
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Geometry of the WeatherSat Measurement Scheme
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
RADIOSONDE (blue) and SPACE LIDAR (green)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
WeatherSat Global Wind Coverage
10 M/S