global market review of automotive transmissions

auto

2007 edition

Global market review of automotive transmissions– forecasts to 2014

Page i

Global market review of automotive transmissions – forecasts to 2014 2007 edition

By Jeff Daniels

January 2007

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Page iv Table of contents

Table of contents

Single-user licence edition............................................................................................................. ii Copyright statement .................................................................................................................. ii Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences............................................... ii just-auto.com membership........................................................................................................iii

Table of contents ........................................................................................................................... iv

List of tables ................................................................................................................................... vi

Chapter 1 Background and basic requirements .......................................................................... 1 Requirement: the need for transmission ................................................................................... 1 Overall solutions........................................................................................................................ 1 The overall market .................................................................................................................... 3

Changes to methods of analysis ...................................................................................... 5 Fast-growing automatic share .......................................................................................... 6 Continuing manual popularity… ....................................................................................... 7 …but the automatic will win ground.................................................................................. 8

Evolution of the conventional automatic ................................................................................... 9 The technical alternatives ....................................................................................................... 10

Chapter 2 Manual transmissions.................................................................................................12 The market for manual transmissions..................................................................................... 12 The main trends ...................................................................................................................... 16

Clutches.......................................................................................................................... 16 Manual gearboxes .......................................................................................................... 17

Manual gearbox manufacture and supply............................................................................... 20 Manual transmissions: future market prospects ..................................................................... 23

Chapter 3 Conventional automatic transmissions .................................................................... 25 The market for conventional automatics ................................................................................. 25 The main trends ...................................................................................................................... 25

Novel kinematics ............................................................................................................ 28 Automatic transmission manufacture and supply ................................................................... 29

North American situation ................................................................................................ 30 Antonov .......................................................................................................................... 31 Audi ................................................................................................................................ 33 BMW............................................................................................................................... 33 DaimlerChrysler.............................................................................................................. 34 Fiat Auto ......................................................................................................................... 35 Ford ................................................................................................................................ 36 General Motors (GM)...................................................................................................... 38 Honda ............................................................................................................................. 40 Mitsubishi........................................................................................................................ 41 Nissan-JATCO................................................................................................................ 42


Page v Table of contents

PSA Peugeot Citroën ..................................................................................................... 43 Renault ........................................................................................................................... 44 Toyota-Aisin AW............................................................................................................. 45 Volkswagen Group ......................................................................................................... 47 ZF ................................................................................................................................... 48

Conventional automatic transmissions – future market prospects.......................................... 49

Chapter 4 New types of automatic transmission ....................................................................... 56 The market for new types of automatic transmission.............................................................. 56 The main trends ...................................................................................................................... 60

Continuously-variable transmissions (CVTs).................................................................. 60 Infinitely variable transmissions (IVTs) ........................................................................... 64 Automated manual transmissions (AMTs)...................................................................... 64

New types of automatic transmission: manufacture and supply ............................................. 67 Audi ................................................................................................................................ 68 BMW............................................................................................................................... 69 Borg-Warner ................................................................................................................... 71 Robert Bosch.................................................................................................................. 71 DaimlerChrysler.............................................................................................................. 72 Fiat Auto ......................................................................................................................... 73 Ford ................................................................................................................................ 74 General Motors............................................................................................................... 75 Honda ............................................................................................................................. 78 Mitsubishi........................................................................................................................ 78 Nissan-JATCO................................................................................................................ 79 PSA Peugeot Citroën ..................................................................................................... 81 Renault ........................................................................................................................... 82 Ricardo ........................................................................................................................... 83 Subaru (Fuji Heavy Industry).......................................................................................... 84 Torotrak .......................................................................................................................... 85 Toyota-Aisin AW............................................................................................................. 86 Valeo .............................................................................................................................. 88 Volkswagen .................................................................................................................... 89 Volvo............................................................................................................................... 90 Xtrac ............................................................................................................................... 90 ZF ................................................................................................................................... 91

Innovative transmissions – future market prospects............................................................... 92

Chapter 5 The long-term prospect ............................................................................................ 100 A reducing need?.................................................................................................................. 100 Hybrid vehicles...................................................................................................................... 101 Electric vehicles .................................................................................................................... 101 Electric traction effect on the transmission market ............................................................... 102

Chapter 6 Downstream of the gearbox ..................................................................................... 104 Other transmission components ........................................................................................... 104 Control of torque distribution.................................................................................................105


Page vi List of tables

List of tables

Table 1: Total vehicle production by area (includes cars, light trucks and LCVs), xxxx-xxxx

(xxxs) .......................................................................................................................... 4

Table 2: Manual transmission market shares and volumes by area, xxxx-xxxx (% and xxxs) ..... 13

Table 3: Automatic transmission market shares and volumes by area, xxxx-xxxx (% and

xxxs)......................................................................................................................... 51

Table 4: CVT market shares and volumes by area, xxxx-xxxx (% and xxxs) ............................... 94

Table 5: AMT (including twin-clutch) market shares and volumes by area, xxxx-xxxx (% and

xxxs)......................................................................................................................... 97

Table 6: All innovative automatics market shares and volumes, xxxx-xxxx (% and xxxs)............ 98


Chapter 1 Background and basic requirements

Chapter 1 Background and basic requirements

Requirement: the need for transmission

All self-propelled vehicles need a system which transmits power from its

source to the driven wheels. In practice at least, the power source may be an

internal combustion engine, an external combustion engine or an electric

motor. Both the external combustion (steam) engine and the electric motor

were prominent in the pioneer days of motoring, but the internal combustion

engine soon achieved pre-eminence because of its ease of operation when

compared with the steam engine, and its ease and speed of refuelling when

compared with electric traction. Unfortunately, the characteristics of the

internal combustion engine demanded a much more complex transmission

system than its rivals. Both the steam engine and the electric motor can be

brought to rest, and designed to provide substantial torque output from zero

speed. The internal combustion engine, on the other hand, cannot run below a

minimum speed, typically xx-xxrpm, and its torque output is speed-

dependent, reaching useful levels only with a speed range typically of xxx-

xxxrpm for a spark-ignition engine and xxx-xxxrpm for a diesel.

Any transmission system associated with an internal combustion engine must

therefore include provision for enabling the engine to continue running when

the vehicle is at rest, plus some form of gearbox with a sufficient spread of

input-to-output ratios to enable the engine’s speed to be maintained within the

useful torque range, whatever the vehicle’s speed. These two elements form

the heart of the transmission system, although further complexities exist

between the gearbox output and the driven wheels. Significant engineering

problems must be confronted in the design of the final drive and differential

unit, which provides a further gearing stage while dividing the input torque

between the driven wheels, and in the design of the jointed propeller and/or

drive shafts which carry the drive to the wheels themselves.

Overall solutions

For the first half-century of the practical internal combustion-engined road

vehicle, the transmission consisted of a friction clutch, operated by the driver


Chapter 2 Manual transmissions

Chapter 2 Manual transmissions

The market for manual transmissions

As already outlined, the forecasts prepared for this report indicate that the

annual demand for manual transmissions for new production passenger cars

and light commercial vehicles is likely to have peaked at a total of just under

xxm units in xxxx. Up to our horizon of xxxx, we predict that worldwide

demand will then fall but at a comparatively slow rate, remaining at xxxm units

in xxxx.

Although the greatest single component of that demand will come from

Western Europe, there will also be a significant requirement in Eastern Europe

and in Asia (excluding Japan and South Korea). In both Western Europe and

Asia, however, there will be a slow falling-off from xxxx levels, as the

automatic share of the total market continues to rise. In Eastern Europe, by

contrast, demand is forecast to rise slowly all the way to xxxx, reaching a peak

of nearly xm units. Japan and South Korea will continue to need manual

transmissions for their light-duty vehicle production, mainly for export models.

We forecast that by xxxx, Japanese production will still require almost xxm

manual transmissions per year, and the South Korean need will be for more

than xxm. Demand in Latin America (primarily Mercosur) and for small-scale

production in other, mainly developing parts of the world will add a further xxm

units/year to that need. Of all the areas separately considered, the lowest

demand will be in NAFTA, whose market for vehicles with manual transmission

will continue to be fed mainly by imports. By xxxx the “native” North American

requirement will be for less than 1m manual transmissions per year.

It follows therefore that the greatest continuing investment in manual

transmission production will be in Europe as a whole, both West and East, and

in mainland Asia. The companies most concerned to maintain this investment

are those with a major presence in the European high-volume market: Fiat

Auto, Ford, GM, PSA Peugeot Citroën, Renault and the Volkswagen Group. In

Europe, high-volume production facilities have long been in place; in Asia and

especially in China, they are being rapidly developed in quantity and in product

quality, often in partnership with overseas concerns.


Chapter 3 Conventional automatic transmissions

Chapter 3 Conventional automatic transmissions

The market for conventional automatics

As was pointed out in the introduction to this report, we are reaching the stage

at which the worldwide market will begin to require more automatic than

manual transmissions, the crossover being likely to occur in xxxx-xxxx. Our

projections indicate that the demand for automatic transmissions will grow at a

rate of x% or better through almost the entire period xxxx-xxxx, and indeed

beyond. The largest share of these transmissions will be for the North

American market, but mainland Asia, Japan and Western Europe will all

become very substantial, respectively attaining nearly xxm, over xxm and

around xxm by xxxx. At that stage automatic transmissions of all kinds will

account for over xx% of the market as a whole.

However, the conventional torque converter and epicyclic automatic is under

challenge from other forms of transmission. The CVT already holds a small but

significant and growing market share, especially in Japan but also increasingly

in Europe. In parallel, and the subject of a strong marketing push from xxxx

onwards, there is the potential challenge of the AMT, which some

commentators foresee claiming a substantial share especially of the Western

European market. We have forecast a significantly larger market share for

“unconventional” automatics than in our previous analysis of xxxx. The market

for such transmissions will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 4.

The main trends

In response to the need for better fuel economy through improved mechanical

efficiency and the ability to operate as close as possible to the engine’s most

efficient regime – the “island” of minimum specific fuel consumption –

conventional automatic transmissions have seen a number of identifiable

technical trends in the last decade. These trends principally include:

○ An increase in the number of forward ratios. Very few

transmissions, of the previous generation concept, now survive with

only three forward gears, although this type was once commonplace.

The four-speed type, which became predominant in the xxxxs, is now


Chapter 4 New types of automatic transmission

Chapter 4 New types of automatic transmission

The market for new types of automatic transmission

When compared with a highly developed manual clutch and gearbox, the

acknowledged drawbacks of conventional automatic transmissions are high

cost, high weight, bulkiness and lower overall mechanical efficiency. The only

undeniable advantage is ease of operation and the reduction in driver

workload. In recent years, a great deal of work has gone into overcoming or at

least mitigating the drawbacks. Torque converter lock-up and “direct shifting”

has helped considerably, while the sophisticated programming of electronic

controls has allowed the five-speed automatic to challenge the fuel economy

achieved by the average “manual” driver, and the six-speed automatic to

exceed it. At the same time, new concepts and the closest attention to detail

have reduced the gap in terms of weight and bulk – though not cost.

Many systems have been examined in the quest to provide the benefits of

automatic transmission at lower weight and, especially, cost. Such solutions

are grouped here as “innovative”, to distinguish them from the conventional

arrangement of torque converter and multiple epicyclic geartrain.

Before proceeding, it should be borne in mind that there is a possible “half-way

house” in the form of a transmission that retains the epicyclic gearbox but

replaces the torque converter with an alternative “launch device”, a multi-plate

clutch. This is smaller, lighter and mechanically more efficient. As the clutch

and torque converter specialist LuK pointed out in a paper delivered to a xxxx

symposium, “an extension of the trend towards higher performance dampers

and increased torque converter clutch usage leads to the natural evolution of

the wet clutch as a launch device”. The paper went on to discuss the oil

cooling requirements of such a unit, and configurations which would allow a

stage of engagement with a torque multiplication of x.xx:x.

We have previously pointed out that the prototype ZF xP seven-speed

transmission of xxxx used such a device, exploiting the fact that its extremely

wide ratio-spread allows a first gear sufficiently low to achieve acceptable step-

off from rest and initial acceleration without a torque converter. Smooth and


Chapter 5 The long-term prospect

Chapter 5 The long-term prospect

A reducing need?

Multi-speed transmissions – manual or automatic – of the type discussed in

the main body of this report are only needed because of the inherent

drawbacks of the internal combustion engine as a vehicle propulsion power

source. There are other power sources which reduce or eliminate the needs

for such transmissions, and these are likely to come into increasing

prominence as the xxst century progresses.

The most obvious alternative, and the one likely to have an overwhelming

impact in the long run, is electric traction. The electric traction motor has no

need to continue running at a minimum self-sustaining (idling) speed when the

vehicle comes to a stop (a virtue which the designers of “economy” IC

drivetrains have tried to emulate through the automatic stopping and restarting

of the engine). Thus no vehicle with electric traction has any need for a clutch.

Also, generally speaking, though to some extent depending on the design of

the electric traction motor, maximum torque is available from zero speed and is

either maintained, or gradually falls away as speed increases. Thus there is no

need for a conventional gearbox with selectable gears either, simply a

reduction gear which matches the motor characteristics to those of the vehicle

– specifically, ensuring that the maximum safe speed of the motor corresponds

with the desired maximum speed of the vehicle.

It follows, therefore, that with electric traction, the need for transmissions of the

kind which have been so highly developed in over a century of IC engine

propulsion effectively ceases to exist. It is possible that some powertrain

engineers will examine the possibility of incorporating gearing within electric

traction, which might, for example, allow the use of a smaller and lighter

traction motor, sacrificing initial acceleration but not, perhaps, maximum

speed. However, most electric vehicles (EVs) so far demonstrated have been

content with the single reduction-gear drive.

Vehicles with electric traction can be divided into two main classes: hybrid

electric vehicles (HEVs) which retain an internal combustion engine as the

prime power source but have an electric motor as the propulsion unit, and pure

electric vehicles which derive their electric power from some other source. It is


Chapter 6 Downstream of the gearbox

Chapter 6 Downstream of the gearbox

Other transmission components

Transmission design does not end at the gearbox output. Cars require final

drive units, and propeller and/or drive shafts. In the simplest modern driveline

layout, with front engine and front-wheel drive, the final drive unit is more or

less integral with the gearbox, the two usually being manufactured and

installed as one, in a single casing. All that is then required is a pair of jointed

drive shafts to the front wheels. The design and manufacture of the joints

themselves (constant velocity joints – CVJs – which ensure that the output

rotates at the same steady speed as the input, even when the joint is running

at an angle) is a specialised field in its own right and in the hands of a few

large suppliers worldwide. A notable recent trend, in the endless quest for

operating refinement, has been the tendency of driveline engineers to specify

CVJs where a simpler design would once have been chosen.

Vehicles with front engine and rear-wheel drive – today, almost entirely luxury-

class cars – require a propeller shaft to take the drive from the gearbox to a

rear-mounted final drive unit (a few cars have used a rear-mounted gearbox, in

unit with the final drive). Jointed drive shafts then connect the final drive unit to

the wheels. The alternative arrangement of a rigid axle housing simple,

unjointed drive shafts is still found in light commercial vehicles but is obsolete

so far as passenger cars are concerned.

The most complex “downstream” arrangements are those required for vehicles

with xWD. If they are to be fully effective, such vehicles need three differential

units, one at each end and one in the centre, to allow all four wheels to rotate

at slightly different speeds when manoeuvring (some cheap and simple xWDs

have done without the centre differential but only at the cost of poor

refinement, compromised handling and increased tyre wear on hard surfaces).

The requirements for propeller and drive shafts are similarly increased.

Many of these downstream transmission components are supplied by

specialists, some of them very large, such as the various divisions of GKN.

These specialists tend not to be deeply involved in the design of the


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