global market forecast 2012-2031

Global Market Forecast 2012-2031Presented by: CHRIS EMERSONSVP, Future Programmes & Market Strategy

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Aviation in the context of world economy

56.6m

illion

Jobs supportedWorld-wide

Globallycontributes

$2.2

trillion

Aviation’s globaleconomic impact

19thIf aviation was acountry ranked

by GDP

2,681,000,000passengers carried in 2010

$5.3 trillionworth of cargo shipped by

air in 2010

2%of global man-made CO2

emissions come from aviation

Source: IHS Global Inisght, OAG, Airbus


Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic continued to post strong growth

* since 2000

Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis

WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS

FinancialCrisis

+53%*

Source: ICAO, Airbus

Evolution of world annual RPK traffic

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic continued to post strong growth

* since 2000

Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis

WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS

FinancialCrisis

+53%*


Evolution of world annual RPK traffic

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Focus on the last decade:


80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

World economic growth has clearlybeen driven by the emerging economies

Source: IHS Global Insight, ICAO, OAG, Airbus

Real GDP in 2005 US$

Evolution ofReal GDP

Emergingeconomies

+86%

World

+32%Developedeconomies

+18%

Evolution of world RPKs and real GDP (Base 100 in 2000)

Traffic growth+53%


Economy spending less time in recession even through recent crises

0%

15%

30%

45%

1919-1939 1940-1962 1963-1985 1986-2011

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

8 years of recession

<2.5 years of recession

1919 2011years

% of time spent in recession at world level


671 701 678265 263 254

746

1 889

3 377

419

560

739

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2011 2021 2031

Other

Asia-Pacific

North America

Europe & CIS

Leading to a larger “Global Middle Class”Global Middle Class*(Millions of people)

2,101

3,413

5,048X 2X 2

X 5X 5

% of World population30%7,000

44%7,700

60%8,400 World population

* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus


Population (billions) Urbanisation rate

World urban population expected to rise from 3.5 billion people today up to 5 billion by 2030

Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B

51%

60%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Urban populationRural populationUrbanisation rate

History Forecast

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

Source: UN population division, Airbus


Visiting friends and relatives is a key driver of traffic growth

Region definition according to United Nations; Asia including Oceania, countries of the Middle East and countries of CIS,Europe including Russia

2010 world inter-regional migration corridors per sending and receiving region (million persons) North America

Asia

Europe

Latin America

Africa

North America

Asia

Europe

Latin America

Africa

Continued demand for VFR traffic:• >215M live outside their country of birth

• 700K foreign students studying in the US

•Visiting friends and relatives remained much more stable than business travel

•North America and Europe as largest destinations of immigration

•Asia-Pacific growing as a destination for immigrants

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus


0,001

0,01

0,1

1

10

0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000

Trips* per capita - 2011

2011 nominal GDP per capita ($US)

Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

* Passengers originating from respective country

4.6xIn 2031 vs 2011

China & India average propensity

to travel

USA

France

United Kingdom

Germany

India

China

China & India Average 2011

China & India Average 2031

Source: Sabre (annualized September 2011 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus


Airlines are becoming more efficient

0

5

10

15

20

25

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Other costsFuel cost

Unit cost (cents/RPK in 2011 US$)

History Forecast

40%% cost from fuel 29% 13% 13% 33% 36%

Source: ICAO, EIA, IHS Global Insight


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

High oil prices here for the long-term

Average price in the year displayed

History ForecastBrent oil price (current US$ per bbl)

Source: IHS CERA, Airbus


Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2000 2010 2026**

Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*

Twin-aisle aircraft:

+8%

Single-aisle aircraft:

+10%

2010 vs. 2000

Backlog

* Passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 – 2030 new aircraft deliveries)

Twin-aisle aircraft:

+17%

Single-aisle aircraft:

+15%

2026 vs. 2000

Backlog

Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year


2011 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day, …

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

Traffic as of month of September; Source: AirbusLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

42Aviation

Mega-cities(2011)

> 90%of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via42 cities


… and by 2031 it will be over 90

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

Traffic as of month of September. Source: AirbusLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

2031 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

92Aviation

Mega-cities(2031)

> 95%of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via92 cities


Source: Airbus, OAG

Evolution of offered seats and number of served city pairs, long haul and short haul market, relative to 1995 (100%)

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Short haul served city pairsShort haul seats offeredLong haul served city pairsLong haul seats offered

2011 vs. 1995Long haul seats offered

+93%

2011 vs. 1995Short haul seats offered

+58%2011 vs. 1995

Long haul served city pairs

+42%2011 vs. 1995

Short haul served city pairs

+25%

Traffic as of month of SeptemberLong haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

Long-haul growing faster than short-haul


Airbus Global Market Forecast

A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast

Airlines• Business Models• Operations• Competition• Geopolitics

Trends Analysis• Consumer & Travel

Surveys• Tourism• Migration• Traffic flows• Passenger demands

Governments & Regulators

• Liberalization/ deregulation

• Investments and constraints

• Geopolitics

Network Development

• Route planning• Origin and

destination demand• Population centers

Traffic• Economics and

Econometrics• Fuel costs• Yields• Load Factors• Trade and Value of

Goods

Fleet trends• Aircraft economics• Utilization• Fleet age and

retirements

Market Research Forecast


Air travel remains a growth market

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

Air traffic has doubled every 15 years

Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.7%

AirbusGMF 2012

ICAO total traffic

2011-20215.1%

2021-20314.4%

World annual RPK (trillion)



0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Asia-Pacific airlines to lead in world traffic by 2031

2011 traffic 2012-2031 traffic 28%

27%

27%

7%

5%

3%

3%

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.7%

5.4%

4.1%

3.3%

7.3%

5.9%

5.4%

5.0%

% of 2011world RPK

20-year growth

32%

24%

20%

11%

6%

4%

3%

% of 2031world RPK

Source: Airbus GMF

World RPK airline traffic


0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000

Domestic Russia

Japan - USA

PRC - USA

Asia - Middle East

Western Europe - North Africa

Domestic Asia

Central Europe - Western Europe

Western Europe - PRC

Indian Sub Continent - Middle East

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic Brazil

Asia - Western Europe

Intra Asia

Asia - PRC

Western Europe - South America

Domestic India

Western Europe - USA

Intra Western Europe

Domestic USA

Domestic PRC

Domestic PRC and Domestic India lead the growth in RPKs 2011 to 2031

2012 – 2031 CAGR

7.0%

2.2%

3.1%

3.7%

9.9%

5.1%

6.5%

6.0%

4.1%

6.5%

5.4%

6.5%

5.7%

5.6%

5.4%

5.2%

5.6%

6.2%

3.7%

5.0%

Largest 20 flows in 2031, by RPK (billion)2011 traffic 2012-2031 trafficDomestic PRC

2031 Share of World traffic

10.4%

10.4%

7.5%

5.3%

2.9%

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

1.5%

1.5%

1.4%

1.3%

1.3%

Source: Airbus GMF


Global Market Forecast 2012: Highlights

Market value of $4 trillion

Traffic carried by domiciled carriers, fleet in service with domiciled carriersPassenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freight aircraft ≥10tSource: Global Insight, United Nations, Airbus GMF

GMF 2012 key numbers and 20-year change

World Fleet Forecast 2011 2031 % Change

RPK (trillions) 5.1 12.8 150%Passenger aircraft fleet 15,560 32,550 109%New passenger aircraft deliveries 27,350

New freighter aircraft deliveries 850

Total New Aircraft Deliveries 28,200

FTK (billion) 508.0195.1 160%Freighter aircraft fleet 1,620 2,940 82%


20-year demand for 28,200 new passenger and freight aircraft

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)Jet freight aircraft (> 10 tons)

1,710 very large aircraft

Market value of $4 trillion

6,970 twin-aisle aircraft

19,520 single-aisle aircraft

Source: Airbus GMF

28,200 new aircraft

20-year deliveries of new passenger and freight aircraft


Summary

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RPKs0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Aircraft Demand

20 Year Aircraft Demand(Thousands)

2031 RPKs(Trillions)AfricaCISLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificWorld

980 Aircraft1,240 Aircraft2,110 Aircraft1,960 Aircraft6,200 Aircraft5,840 Aircraft9,870 Aircraft28,200 Aircraft

3% of 2031 World RPKs







>12 trillion RPKs in 2031

Traffic by domicile:

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CISAfrica

Source: Airbus

Thank you

global market forecast 2012-2031

Documents

airbus airbus

proprietary document

b urban population

world traffic

world economic growth

world population30

population division

evolution of world rpks