Global Insights with Queensland Trade Commissioners - China

China is softening - What is next for our powerhouse?

Julie-Anne Nichols

Queensland Trade and Investment Commissioner – Greater China

Trade and Investment Queensland

Global Insights with Queensland Trade

Commissioners - ChinaChina is softening - What is next for our powerhouse?

China – A Snapshot

Large Share. Softening Growth.

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Chinese Enrolments YoY

Higher Education57%

VET6%

Schools6%

ELICOS24%

Non-award7%

2018 Sector

Share of Chinese

IET Enrolments in

Queensland

37.77%

34.51%

12.10%

5.88%

3.31%

1.79%

0.11%

4.54%

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

• Slowing education and tourism

• Circle of influence – political, economic, media

• Cost & ROI

• Employability

• More here (China), less there (later, shorter, mixed mode)

Numbers – don’t stop thinking about tomorrow, yesterday is gone

Numbers

Visa statistics

Student Lodgements (Global) - PRC passport only

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 82,116 90,553 82,842

Student Finalisation (Global) - PRC passport only

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 84,701 92,832 83,212

Student Grants (Global) - PRC passport only

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 80,669 87,792 76,887

Student Lodgement (China posts)

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 1,515 2,428 2,212

Student Finalisation (China posts)

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 1,799 1,983 2,530

Student Grants (China posts)

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 1,397 1,461 1,813

Mongolian Student Lodgements (China posts)

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 1,512 2,421 2,205

Mongolian Student Grants (China posts)

Visa Category 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 to 31/05/2019

Student 1,378 1,457 1,806

• Macroeconomic environment: stock market, real estate, capital controls, economic growth targets.

• Gaokao reform

• 1+1 & vocational education reform

• International Chinese Private Schools sector growth

• Early education policy controls

• Edutech across all sectors including tutoring/extra curricular

Narrative

Queensland voices in China

• Eco-political

• National reform and policy priorities

o Industry (China 2025)

o Urbanisation and ruralisation

o Belt & Road

o Greater Bay

Context

Times they are a changing

• Chinese provincial priorities & pilots

• Australia/Nation positioning & competition

• HR firms influencers & impediments

• M&A, Private Equity (PE) trends: follow the money

• Competitive forces

• Private Chinese media in Australia are sending negative messaging about studying in Australia – safety threats, poor quality, warnings to Chinese parents not to send their children to Australia, negative stories about the government and relationship.

• Chinese economy is softening and market indicates at least 2 years of depressed economic environment

• How can you use alumni to help with employability pipelines and connectivity ?

• Issue is that HR headhunter companies in China do not rank Australian education qualifications well. Rumours are that graduates with Australian education qualifications are ranked in B- to C category (even group 8 uni) which results in graduates not being put forward to employers in China that request A and B grade applicants.

Context

Times they are a changing

• HR headhunting companies have limited understanding of Australian education system and our credentials.

• The Group of 8 career expo in China was well received by education agents as an initiative to try help with employability challenges and perceptions

• In general Australian fees are considered higher than USA/UK but lower prestige/lower reputation.

• Need some Australian national symbol or identity in education. Currently the tourism/natural image does not align well or encourage Australia as prestigious or aspirational destination for education.

• Market does not know what Australia is famous for in terms of industry and business credentials. This is important for employability aspect and positioning.

• In-country representatives/resources, scholarships, discounts, change of entry requirements, incentives to agents, incentives to student counsellors. International schools career fairs. Career fairs with recruitment firms/companies.

• UK leading the pack particularly post-graduate and some growth in Canada

• USA and Australia declining

• Study Adelaide / South Australia, Study Perth and ACT very aggressive. For example Study Adelaide has a focused pitch, very clear message to market on their product offer and benefits. Not something for everything and everyone. Study Adelaide organising Global Agent Week and Student Ambassador English language competition in China.

• Victorian Government Schools organise regular Principals visits to China to visit agents and also organise student school awards and scholarships. Parent and student facing wechatand weibo activities and messaging

Competition

• International competitors: British Council very aggressive. With Brexit, looking at education to raise revenues for UK. 1 year Master course still very attractive as lower cost overall and students can complete quickly and return back to work. In China, British institutions are also providing very attractive commissions for agents and also providing JD.Com gift vouchers for student counsellors in China.

• Other factors that influence students to study in UK and enrol for UK qualifications is Shanghai provide Hukou for Chinese with UK qualifications (Shanghai has a points system for Chinese to apply for Shanghai Hukou. Top 500 University qualifications is one of the points factors).

• Agents still feel that the process for applying for and evaluating visa applications for Australia is inefficient and unclear or subjective. Some stories of 29-90 day waiting periods for HE and even for study tours. And 6 months for guardian visa processing. Feedback that VET visa application process is also challenging.

• UK visa applications can be processed in 24 hours and very straight forward.

• School sector is very tough now given local Chinese market investment in school options and softer economy, safety issues.

• Interest in private school options. Feedback that Queensland private schools do not commit to China market and do not visit regularly enough or at all. Unlike other States (egVictoria, NSW, SA) or other countries.

• Some private schools in Australia pay commission to agents every year during the students’ enrolment, while public schools only pay commission for the first year. However, the commission rate paid for the 2nd or 3rd year by private schools are lower, eg, 5% of the annual tuition fee.

Schools

• Courses in AI, big data and data analysis, machine learning, health and medicine, IT, construction,

• Online counselling using wechat and weibo and strong digital marketing

• Age old hairy chestnut – graduation timing issue mismatch to market jobs and disadvantage verses USA/UK graduates heading back into the workforce. How to address this with employability initiatives run in Queensland or China (or third markets with Chinese language requirements eg HK, Singapore. Taiwan) ?

Higher Ed Trends

• 1 + X certificate

• China policy priority to develop high quality VET institutions in mainland

• VET programs delivered in China with industry partners

• Short term and study tour VET programs through partnerships with Chinese VET colleges/industry

• VET teacher capacity building

• China is investing in VET programs with “Chinese characteristics”.

• Expert here in Jan, touch on high level themes

• VET study offshore also challenging but opportunities with private VET providers in China for in-country delivery.

• New models of knowledge transfer, capability development, industry partnerships and new/niche or strength

areas focus.

VET Messages

China-Australia VET Collaboration

• Strengthen dialogue

• Deepen institutional collaboration

• More cooperation and exchangeR&D collaboration

VET Messages

VET Messages

VET Messages

• Oracle moment: looking for answers, asking questions & looking for problems and what’s next

• New models of knowledge transfer, capability development, industry partnerships and new/niche or strength areas focus.

• Pilots – are they the new PPP hackathon ?

• Can’t do it alone : PPP education style with China characteristics: Government, industry, education & training partnerships

So what?

• Pitch - more shark tank, less beauty pageant

• Stop vanilla

• Unpack China dreams & aspirations, where to position Queensland (sweet spot)

o What can we deliver that is aspirational to China & for Chinese

o China ambition, Queensland articulated

• Rethink & reimagine “regional”

• Alumni engagement is not one size fits all

Lights, cameras, action

• Good things come in threes: G-I-E partnerships

• Smart social

o for influencers: usual suspects plus HR firms, local industry associations & bodies. Thought leadership consultative selling

• “Queensland Plus” approach to employability initiatives

• Northern Australian strategy – Northern Queensland

• Commissions, incentives, migration

• AI, big data, analysis, machine learning

• Advanced manufacturing

• Health, pharma, medical

• Resources management & environment

• Infrastructure & construction (BRI angle)

• Internal capacity building

o Education & training

o Health & aged care

o Agriculture

o Governance

o Smart city services

o Government policy, governance, BRI applicable

Finding the sweet spot Value cycle role & offer

• Schools

• VET

• HE

• R&D

• Industry

• Government

Trade and Investment Queensland

QLD Gov in China: Official WeChat Accounts

Education Queensland International Tourism and Events Queensland

Rongyu Li

Deputy Vice-Chancellor (External Engagement)

The University of Queensland

Global Insights with Queensland Trade

Commissioners - ChinaChina is softening - What is next for our powerhouse?

Jen Bahen (Tyrell)

Director, International Education

TAFE Directors Australia

Global Insights with Queensland Trade

Commissioners - ChinaChina is softening - What is next for our powerhouse?

Helen Hei

Public Relations Coordinator

Fullshare Industrial Holding Group Australia

Global Insights with Queensland Trade

Commissioners - ChinaChina is softening - What is next for our powerhouse?