BREXIT BRIEF | DEC 2015

Introduction

Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA’s UK Project Group, covers developments in the on-going debate in the United Kingdom – and between the UK and the other EU Member States – on the UK’s negotiations over its membership of the Union.

The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK re-negotiation and on relevant statements and policy positions – of key individual players, EU institutions, national governments, political parties, business interests and civil society actors. Particular attention is given to identification of references – website coordinates, book titles, official publications, media coverage etc.

The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA’s UK Project Group – involving commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports, which will be highlighted on the Institute website.

Section One: Countdown

With the publication, on 10 November 2015, of David Cameron’s letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, setting out the United Kingdom’s case for reform of the European Union, the countdown to the ‘in-out’ referendum has begun.

The Cameron Letter

A detailed note on the Cameron Letter may be read in the IIEA Brexit page here. In it he set out four substantive

proposals under the headings of Economic Governance and the Eurozone, Competitiveness, Sovereignty and Immigration, summing them up in clear terms:

• Protect the single market for Britain and others outside the Eurozone;

• Write competitiveness into the DNA of the whole European Union;

• Exempt Britain from an ‘ever closer union’ and bolster national parliaments; and

• Tackle abuses of the right to free movement.

The full text of Mr. Cameron’s letter can be found here.

Also on 10 November 2015, the House of Commons debated the letter on the basis of a Statement by the Minister for Europe, David Lidington, who argued that the purpose of the letter “is not to describe the precise means, including the detailed legal amendments, for effecting our reforms – that is a matter for renegotiation itself; what matters to us is finding solutions. The agreement must be legally binding and irreversible and, where necessary, have force in the treaties.” He emphasised that “it is progress on the substance in this renegotiation that will determine the timing of the referendum itself.”

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Donald Tusk Response

On 7 December 2015, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, wrote to the members of the Council “to let you know where we stand on the issue of a UK in/out referendum”. Summarising the state of play on each of Cameron’s four issues, he concluded that good progress had been made on all four but more time was needed to sort out drafting details and “to overcome the substantial political differences that we still have on the issue of social benefits and free movement.”

He concluded that the December Council “should address all the political dilemmas related to this process. Based on a substantive political discussion we should be able to prepare a concrete proposal to be adopted in February” and argued that “uncertainty about the future of the UK in the European Union is a destabilising factor. That is why we must find a way to answer the British concerns as quickly as possible.”

The text of Donald Tusk’s letter may be read here.

Negotiation

Over the past year Prime Minister Cameron has spoken to all of his 27 colleagues in the European Council, arguing the general case for the UK proposals. Technical discussions have taken place over a number of months involving experts from the EU institutions as well as national administrations. Specialist teams have been established in the Institutions, with the experienced British Commission official, Jonathan Faull, heading the European Commission’s Brexit Taskforce. In Dublin, the Department of the Taoiseach has set up a team under the leadership of Assistant Secretary Dermot Curran.

December European Council

The European Council meeting on 17-18 December 2015 will consider the progress of negotiation. Prime Minister Cameron looks forward to “a substantive discussion” on that occasion but, while aiming to conclude an agreement at the earliest opportunity, has stressed that the priority must be to get the substance right. The urgency of Eurozone, migration and security considerations may leave little time for discussion of the UK agenda, and some of the weightier issues, such as changes to welfare provisions, may yet require a more detailed discussion at a later date.

Irish Perspective

On the eve of the issuing of the Cameron letter, the Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, addressed the Annual Conference of the CBI in London. He told the leaders of British business that “I have no doubt that continued British membership of the European Union is good for Ireland and for relationships on these islands.” He pointed out that the CBI analysis of the benefits of EU membership was similar to that of IBEC, as was their shared views on a number of areas which needed to be reformed.

“Like David Cameron I have been attending European councils for several years now. I have seen the European Union up close. I still find an enduring power in the idea that by working together we are stronger […] what is clear is that we are closer than ever and working better together for all the people of these islands. I believe that we need to continue that work – our two countries together – in the European Union. ”

Section Two: Brexit State of Play

The renegotiation /referendum saga is gathering pace on all fronts.

Deadlines

Prime Minister Cameron has indicated his belief that, while negotiations with partners and Institutions are making progress, there will be no final resolution at the December 2015 European Council. The February 2016 meeting of the Council now looks like the moment of decision with a referendum in June or July a possibility.

Campaigning

Campaigning groups on both sides of the UK referendum arguments are stepping up their activities. Three groups have emerged on the ‘Yes’ as the key protagonists in the upcoming referendum campaign: ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’, ‘British Influence’ and ‘Labour IN for Britain’. On the pro-Brexit side, two civil society groups – ‘Leave.EU’ and ‘Vote Leave’ – are contending for leadership while the party groups – UKIP and Labour Leave – advance their arguments.

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

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Opinion

Opinion polling on the likely outcome has been increasing in volume in recent weeks

The ORB poll indicates the strength of the pro-Brexit campaign, while an Irish survey shows the level of concern here about the prospect of Brexit. IpsosMRBI show 75% of Irish people want the UK to stay and a similar proportion insist Ireland will not follow Brexit. The same poll shows significant sympathy with much of the UK case for reform.

Another UK poll – by the National Centre for Social Research – shows a more positive position than ORB but points to a situation in which the overall result could see Britain remaining in the EU because majorities in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could outweigh a more negative outcome in England. While there is an even divide in England there are majorities for Remain in Scotland (64%), Wales (55%) and Northern Ireland (75%). The report concludes: “(if ) the views of England are either overruled by or overrule votes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the constitutional implications may extend beyond the specific question of whether the UK remains in the EU.”

Perhaps the most interesting of these recent polls was conducted by ICM and published in the UK’s Daily Telegraph. The poll found that voters were in favour, by a single percentage point, of the UK staying in the EU. However, this dynamic changed dramatically when asked how they would vote if Mr. Cameron failed to achieve concessions on key issues of welfare and migration. In the latter instance, 45% of respondents voted in favour of leaving, while 40% voted in favour of remaining in the EU – further underscoring the importance of the welfare agenda in the upcoming referendum campaign.

The Irish Debate

Debate on the possibility of Brexit is gaining pace in both parts of this island.

The IIEA and others, including the British-Irish Chamber of Commerce and European Movement, have hosted a number of important events in recent weeks, a number of which are detailed below:

• The IIEA, in conjunction with the Irish Association and Queen’s University, organised a seminar in Queen’s addressed by the Northern Ireland Finance Minister, Arlene Foster MLA, and the Minister for Foreign

Affairs, Charlie Flanagan TD. The transcript of Minister Flanagan’s remarks can be found here, while Minister Foster’s address can be downloaded here.

• The British-Irish Chamber of Commerce, with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, hosted a Breakfast Briefing event at Iveagh House on 2 December, addressed by Minister Flanagan with leading speakers from both sides of the UK debate and Irish participants, including Alan Barrett, the Director of the ESRI.

Section Three: Relevant research and events

IIEA research and events

The IIEA has engaged in an extensive research and events programme on the topic of Brexit since 2013, and will continue a programme of events, briefings and publications throughout 2016. Podcasts and downloadable publications can be found on the IIEA website.

Recent IIEA publication highlights:

Brexit, Northern Ireland and the Island Economy: An Update, by Professor John Bradley

Recent IIEA event highlights:

The British Referendum, Jonathan Faull, Head of the European Commission’s Brexit Task Force

The Future of Britain and the EU, Professor Anand Menon, Director of ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’

IIEA book on Brexit

The IIEA book, Britain and Europe: The Endgame – An Irish Perspective, published in March 2015, can be downloaded from the IIEA website.

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

BREXITB R I E F BREXIT BRIEF | DEC 2015

Third-party research and events

A Polish View

The Polish Institute of International Relations (PISM) has published a bulletin devoted to the UK renegotiation in which Karolina Boronska-Hryniewiecka, writes that “Despite Cameron’s promise that his letter to Tusk would set out the ‘hows’ of reform its contents are disappointing. While Member states generally support British ideas for a more competitive EU single market, the areas of sovereignty, Eurozone fairness and benefits for migrants are legally problematic, lacking in precision and, sometimes, meaningful rationales.”

European Movement Ireland

European Movement Ireland has organised high-level events on themes related to the UK renegotiation. A major conference on ‘Reform and Referendum’ on 9 November 2015 heard keynote speeches by Tánaiste Joan Burton and Scotland’s Europe Minister, Fiona Hyslop, with EMI Director, Noelle O’Connell, launching the organisation’s National Conversation on the UK/EU issue.

ESRI

The ESRI in November published a major report entitled Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland which indicates that Brexit could have serious consequences for Ireland in respect of trade, environmental policy and potential barriers to migration. The report makes clear the great complexity of the relationships between these two islands and highlights the degree to which Brexit could disrupt and further complicate them.

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

BREXITB R I E F BREXIT BRIEF | DEC 2015

Section Four: Background Material and Further Reading

Background Material

President Donald Tusk Letter to European Council. 7 December 2015. (www.consilium.europs.eu)

Prime Minister David Cameron Letter to European Council President. 10 November 2015. (www.gov.uk/government/prime-minister)

Chancellor George Osborne Speech to BDI Conference, Berlin, 3 November 2015 (www.ft.cm)

Minister Charlie Flanagan Speech at IIEA/QUB Seminar, Belfast, 26 November 2015. (www.dfa.ie)

Minister Arlene Foster Speech at IIEA/QUB Seminar, Belfast, 26 November 2015. (www.northernireland.gov.uk)

Minister Charlie Flanagan Speech to British-Irish Chamber of Commerce, London, 23 November 2015. (www.dfa.ie)

ESRI Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland. November 2015 (www.esri.ie)

Open Europe EU Reform Heat-Map: where do EU countries stand on the UK’s EU reform demands?, 8 November 2015 (www.openeurope.org.uk)

Bank of England European Union Membership and the Bank of England. October 2015. (www.bankofengland.co.uk)

European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) Emergency Motion - UK Referendum Renegotiation Strategy - adopted at the ETUC 13th Congress on 2 October 2015 (www.etuc.eu)

Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Choosing Our Future. How the European Union is Good for Business, But How it Should be Better. October 2015 (www.cbi.org.uk)

Robin Niblett ‘Britain, Europe and the World: Rethinking the UK’s Circles of Influence.’ Chatham House Research Paper, October 2015. (www.chathamhouse.org)

Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs: Report on UK/EU Future Relationship, June 2015. (www.oireachtas.ie)

Further Reading

O’Ceallaigh and Gillespie (eds.) (2015) Britain and Europe: The Endgame. Dublin, IIEA. Major study of the UK/EU relationship from Ireland’s viewpoint. (www.iea.com)

Roger Liddle (2015) ‘The Risk of Brexit.’ Up to the moment, disturbing, survey of the UK debate ‘on the edge of an exit from the European Union.’. London, Policy Network. (www.policy-network.net)

Charles Grant (2015) ‘Cameron’s EU Gamble. Five reforms he can win, and ten pitfalls he must avoid.’ Leading commentator on EU affairs looks at prospects for successful renegotiation. London, Centre for European Reform. (www.cer.org.uk)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.