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Global Helicopter Forecast

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Page 1: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

Global Helicopter Forecast

Page 2: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

2

In 2016, with more than 100 bookings (all OEMs)

China booked more helicopters than any other country

C&P untapped demand is rising

Key world economies are still underequipped

0 5000

U.S.A.

Russia

Canada

Brazil

Australia

United Kingdom

Italy

Japan

France

Germany

TOP 10 Countries in 2016

( H/C fleet in service)

China

U.S.A

India

Japan

Germany

Russia

Indonesia

France

United Kingdom

Brazil

TOP 10

World economies in 2016

GDP @PPP*

… #11 China

China

India

U.S.A.

Indonesia

Japan

Turkey

Germany

Mexico

Brazil

Russia

TOP 10

World economies in 2036

GDP @PPP

In the last 5 years Chinese fleet

x 2.7

*Purchasing power parity

Page 3: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

3

Helicopters address primary and secondary human needs

Helicopters help…

Public Services EMS Energy Commercial Private

to protect

populations

to save lives to transport

passengers to

remote areas

to build in remote

areas

to deploy rapidly

to reach places that

jets can’t

Make your life easier

Social development Economic development

Page 4: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€

20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036):

90

155

125

125 Bn€

245 Bn€

Labor

Spares &

Components

Airframe & engine H/c deliveries

66%

34%

% Value

Customer service business accounting

for an average of 65% of the total C&P

market

Page 5: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

5

Over the next 20 years, the C&P market will represent nearly 22,000 units Representing 125 Bn€

Light & Medium Twin (< 7 tons)

We expect ~ 22,000 new helicopters in all market segments by 2036

Light & Single engine Super Medium & Heavy (> 7 tons)

50% (units)

17% (value)

35% (units)

45% (value)

15% (units)

38% (value)

Page 6: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2039

1.61% CAGR

2016-2020

1st oil crisis

Evolution of the C&P in-service fleet Expected to grow by almost 50% over the next 20 years

C&P helicopter fleet in service:

1973

2nd oil crisis 1979

Black Monday 1987

Asia, Brazil, Argentina

1997-98

Russia

W.T.C. 2001

Global recession 2008 - 09

2020 2025 2030 2035

Forecast

2.6% CAGR

2005-2015

2.3% CAGR

1995-2005

2.08% CAGR

2017-2036

2040

(Compound annual growth rate)

Page 7: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

Demand driven by growth Significant part of today’s helicopters will remain in service

~15,000

~22,000

2016 2036

~25,000

~37,000

Fleet growth in units:

Today

New

Stay in

service

57% 43%

Growth Replacement

20 years from now

Page 8: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

New C&P helicopter deliveries 2017-2036

~5,000 ~4,000

~8,000

~2,000

~3,000

23%

USA / Canada

18%

Europe

36%

Asia/Pacific

9%

Africa & Middle East

14%

Latin America World demand units

Demand driven by North American replacement needs

and new demand in Asia-Pacific region

Page 9: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

Key highlights

Market demand for almost 22, 000 helicopters over the next 20 years

supported by robust economic and social drivers

Emerging regions will drive the global demand for growth while

replacement needs will essentially come from mature regions

Potential short/midterm increase in the case of faster deregulation and

infrastructure implementation in emerging regions

Page 10: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

10

SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “projects”, “may” and similar expressions are used to identify

these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market

expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook.

By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments

to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

THESE FACTORS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cyclical nature of some of Airbus’ businesses;

Significant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks);

Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar;

The successful execution of internal performance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts;

Product performance risks, as well as programme development and management risks;

Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues;

Competition and consolidation in the aerospace and defence industry;

Significant collective bargaining labour disputes;

The outcome of political and legal processes including the availability of government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procurement budgets;

Research and development costs in connection with new products;

Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions;

Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties.

Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. Airbus undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of

new information, future events or otherwise.

Disclaimer

Page 11: Global Helicopter Forecast - Airbus · All OEMs C&P helicopter business A global business volume of 370 Bn€ 20 year global turbine helicopter business volume (2017 – 2036): 90

Thank you