Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

and the IMPACT Model

Keith WiebeInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Workshop on Integrating Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services into Foresight Models

Bioversity, Rome7-8 May 2015

1. Improved modeling tools

• Complete recoding of IMPACT version 3

• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity

• Improved water & crop models• New data management system• Modular framework• Training

2. Stronger community of practice

• 13 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF

• IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish

• Collaboration with other leading global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

• Role of agricultural technologies

• Africa regional reports• Analyses by CGIAR

centers• CCAFS regional studies• AgMIP global

economic assessments

Rainfed Maize (Africa)

Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)

Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)

Rainfed Potato (Asia)

Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)

Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)

Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

3. Improved assessments

4. Informing decision making

• CGIAR centers• CGIAR Research Programs

• RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize, Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish…

• National partners• MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan

Africa, Central Asia

• Regional organizations• ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR

• International organizations and donors• OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA

6

The IMPACT Global Simulation Model

• International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade

• Global partial equilibrium model • Multimarket model• Water models• Crop models• Livestock model• Malnutrition model

IMPACT Model – Schematic

7

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What is new in IMPACT 3?

• Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year)• 58 agricultural commodities

• Prices and markets• Three markets: farm gate, national, international• Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities

• Land allocation to crops• Activity-commodity value chain framework• New water models: hydrology, water basin

management, water stress on crops• Modularity of the IMPACT model “system”

9

IMPACT 3 Geography

159

• Countries

154

• Water Basins

320

• Food Production Units

10

Baseline model drivers and results• Core drivers: population, GDP,

land• Changes in technology• Climate change:

• Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change

• Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

12

2050 Wheat Yields: Climate Change Effects

for Top 10 Wheat Producers

Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

Note: Average of 4 GCMs under SSP 2 and RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3

Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)

Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Climate change impacts in 2050

Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)

Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Climate change impacts and trade

Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS

Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change)

SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5

The role of agricultural technologies

• Baseline to 2050, including climate change

• Linked crop models and economic models

• Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat

• Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger, resource use, efficiency

Source: IFPRI (2014)

Global DSSAT ResultsYield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline

MAIZE RICE WHEAT

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

0% 20% 40%

Yield Impact

MIROC A1B

Drought Tolerance (DT)

Heat Tolerance (HT)

Integrated Soil Fertility Management (FM)

N Use Efficiency

No-Till (NT)

Precision Agriculture (PA)

Water Harvesting (WH)

Irrigation - Drip

Irrigation - Sprinkler

Organic Agriculture

Crop Protection (Diseases)

Crop Protection (Insects)

Crop Protection (Weeds)

32%

16%

28%

12%

5%

9%

8%

4%

1%

1%

0%

7%

9%

21%

34%

18%

2%

6%

0%

9%

7%

8%

20%

14%

11%

32%

26%

10%

6%

1%

7%

4%

0%

7%

7%

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Benefits include reduced N losses, increased N productivity.

Efficient use of resources:Change (%) in N Productivity – Maize, Rice, Wheat. Irrigated vs. Rainfed, 2050 vs. Baseline (DSSAT)

(Compared to the business-as-usual)

29% less nitrogen losses 28% more N productivity

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Prominent impacts of Improved Irrigation Technologies Increased water savings (less water used) Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input)

Efficient use of resources :Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat

(Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation)

28% less water applied 22% more water productivity

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Percent Change in Cultivated Area, Developing Countries & Latin America :2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline

maize rice wheat

-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area

-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area

-15% -10% -5% 0%% Difference in Avg. Area

Developing

Nitrogen use efficiency

No till

Heat tolerance

Precision agriculture

Integrated soil fertility ..

Crop protection - weeds

Crop protection - diseases

Crop protection - insects

Drought tolerance

Drip irrigation

Water harvesting

Sprinkler irrigation

Latin America Caribbean

Nitrogen use efficiency

No till

Heat tolerance

Precision agriculture

Integrated soil fertility ..

Crop protection - weeds

Crop protection - diseases

Crop protection - insects

Drought tolerance

Drip irrigation

Water harvesting

Sprinkler irrigation

-5.7%

-7.5%

-7.7%

-1.9%

-1.0%

-1.6%

-1.2%

-1.4%

-0.6%

-0.3%

-0.1%

0.0%

-6.8%

-0.2%

-1.4%

-3.2%

-2.5%

-1.0%

-1.1%

-1.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.5%

-6.8%

-4.2%

-4.4%

-1.9%

-1.6%

-2.0%

-1.6%

-0.7%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-0.2%

-10.1%

-7.7%

-9.8%

-2.7%

-1.3%

-2.2%

-1.6%

-1.9%

-0.7%

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-10.5%

-0.4%

-2.2%

-5.0%

-3.9%

-1.6%

-1.8%

-1.6%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-5.1%

-9.9%

-6.1%

-6.7%

-2.9%

-2.4%

-3.0%

-2.4%

-1.0%

-0.5%

-0.1%

-0.3%

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

Other environmental impactsFlachsbarth et al. (2015)

• Water footprints

• Nitrogen emission rates

• Changes in carbon stocks

• Risk of species extinction

Concluding thoughts

• Foresight modeling is a work in progress• Currently working on a number of improvements

• land use, livestock, fish, nutrition, health, environmental indicators (upstream and downstream)

• Collaboration is critical• To strengthen tools• To strengthen ownership and understanding

• Need to recognize limitations• Goal is to inform decisions

• Results are the beginning of discussion, not the end

Thank you

k.wiebe@cgiar.org