CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

Food has been with man since creation. The success of the

day-to-day activities, interaction and lives sustainability is a

reflection of the availability of food. As no referent exist without a

tag or name by which it could be called, so also is the issue of food

significantly embedded in the global nomenclature. Food is any

substance, usually composed of carbohydrates, fats, protein and

water, that can be eaten or drunk by animal or human for nutrition

or pleasure (Kaplan, 2002). Items considered food may be sourced

from plants, animals or other categories such as fungus or

fermented products like alcohol.

Although many human cultures sought food items through

hunting and gathering, today must cultures use farming, ranching

and fishing, with hunting, foraging and playing a minor role. Most

traditions have a recognizable cuisine, a specific set of cooking

traditions, preferences, and practices, the study of which is known

as gastronomy.

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Many cultures study dietary analysis of food habits. While

humans are omnivores, religion and social constructs such as

morality often affects which food they will consume (Fageyinbo,

2006). Food safety is also a concern with food borne illness

claiming many lives each year. In many languages, food is often

used metaphorically as in “food for thought”.

The food crisis has been a major head lines around the

world. Since the beginning of 2008, food prices have increased by

over 65%. Aside from street protest in many parts of the world,

there have also been panicky measures aimed at solving the food

crisis. Whether those measures will ultimately bring about

abundance of food is subject to debate. Everywhere, the price of

food has increased. Retail prices of food is up by 18% in China,

17% in Sir Lanka and 10% or more throughout Latin America and

Russia. In Nigeria, rice epitomizes the magnitude of this crisis as its

prices have doubled since 2004 (Elor, 2008).

Just like most African countries, Nigeria is trying to address

the current crisis. One of the solutions on the table is to import rice

at an increasing rate. In addition, the government plans to disburse

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loans to domestic rive processors at a 4% interest rate with a

repayment period of 15years and a five-years Moratorium. (This

Day, 2008). While this might provide a brief improvement it will not

prevent future shortages or ensure that food is abundant.

Importation of food item used to be promoted and managed

by the Nigerian government leading to large-scale abuse by

officials. This was later terminated primarily to protect local

produces. While it makes economic sense to encourage

importation, not just in time of crisis, it is economic folly that

government should manage it when private individuals could do

better.

Therefore, any attempt made to investigate the impact of the

current food crisis on the Nigerian economy would be a worthwhile

venture and provide an added contribution to the development of

the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Food crisis in the world is a serious problem. Majority of

world countries are affected. Food protest and riots have swept

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more than 20 countries in the past few months, most of which are

Africans. World bank president, Robert Zoellick told a meeting in

Washington that there are 33 countries where price likes could

cause widespread social unrest. The UN world food programme

called the crisis the silent ‘tsunami’ with wheat prices almost

doubling in the past year alone and stocks falling to the lowest

level.

One billion people live on less than $1 a day. Some 850

million are starving. Mean while, world production increased a mere

1 percent in 2006, with increasing amount of output going to

biofuels, performance capita consumption is declining (Robert

Zoellick, 2008). The most commonly stated reasons include rising

fuel costs, global warming, deterioration of soil and increased

demand in China and India. So it is just a case of hard luck and

poor planning (UN, 2007).

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The broad objective of the study is to analyse the impact of

the current food crisis on Nigerian economy: an econometric

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analysis between 1980-2008. However, the specific objectives

include:

1. The determination of the importance of food, world over.

2. Identification of the causes of food crisis globally and Nigeria

in particular.

3. Suggesting ways by which food delivery system in Nigeria

can be improved.

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

This research will answer the following questions which will

serve as a measurement of its validity.

1. Is there any significant relationship between the recent food

crisis and increase in social vices?

2. Is there any significant relationship between increase in

population and upsurge in food prices?

3. Is there any significant relationship between increase in price

of crude oil and in prices of food?

4. Is there any significant relationship between the economic

melt-down and food price surges?

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5. Is there any significant difference between food price hike in

the last 20 years and now?

1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

1. Ho:- There is no significant relationship between the recent

food crisis and increase in social vices.

2. Ho:- There is no significant relationship between increase in

population and upsurge in food prices.

3. Ho:- There is no significant relationship between the

economic meltdown and food price surges.

1.6 METHODOLOGY

A correlation, survey research method would be adopted for

the purpose of investigating the extent to which several variable

such as, economic meltdown, increase in population etc affects the

Nigerian economy.

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1.7 SOURCES OF DATA

Primary data is required for the purpose of the research work

which will be gathered through oral interview.

1.8 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Food, as a veritable tools in man’s sustainability has

assumed importance and significance ever since creation. The

importance of food in any society cannot be over emphasized.

Nigeria, like any other country needs food in consumable and

commercial quantum for her growth and progress.

World over, there have been food crisis ever since

imperialism really got underway three centuries ago. Perhaps the

most extensive famines in history were presided over by Britain

and India in the 18-20th century. It has merely metamorphosed

overtime, just as has the “one world” movement that imperialism

launched. Back then it was obvious: burn, rape, dispossess,

enslave, create monopolies for trade and production (plantation talk

about “dark Africa”.

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According to food dealers in Lagos, the price of a 25kg bag

of rice imported from Thailand surged by about 30% between

January and late April, 2008 while cassava related product also

registered 20-30% rise in their prices in the same period. The price

like is believed to reduce accessibility of food for needy people to

maintain their lives.

In investigating the impact of food crisis on the Nigerian

economy, a significant amount of strategic actions on the part of

not just the Nigerian government but government around the world

and many large conglomerate that controls access to food is

required.

Therefore, an attempt to conduct an investigation: this area

should be given due and urgent consideration.

1.9 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This research work is primarily focused on the current food

crisis in three (3) selected states in the south western region of

Nigeria - Ogun, Lagos and Oyo state between 1980-2008.

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1.10 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The study is of great importance and significance and would

have best been carried out using the entire states of the Federation

as a case study, but for time factor, transportation expenses and

the researcher’s residential area. Specificitly, it has been briefly

narrowed down to three states mentioned earlier- Lagos being the

commercial nerve centre of the country, Ogun being the resident

state of the researcher and Oyo, having Ibadan which is the largest

city in West Africa as its state Capital.

1.11 DEFINITION OF TERMS

Some terms were used and drawn from various sources for

the purpose of this research which may not be clear to further

researchers and readers. These terms include:

1. Food - any substance that can be metabolized by an animal

to give energy and build tissue.

2. Crisis – An unstable situation of extreme danger of difficulty.

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3. Nigeria – A republic in West Africa on the Gulf of Guinea;

gained independence from Britain in 1960, most populous African

country.

4. Economy – the system of production and distribution and

consumption

5. Ogun State – a state in South Western Nigeria. It boarders

Lagos State to the South, Oyo and Osun State to the North, Ondo

State to the east.

6. Lagos State – is an administrative region of Nigeria, located

in the South western part of the country. It shares better with

republic of Benin, Ogun State and Oyo State.

7. Oyo State – an ancient city in Yoruba land located in South

Western Nigeria. Its state capital, Ibadan, is the largest city in West

Africa (Adeojo 1994).

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CHAPTER TWO

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 FOOD AND ITS GLOBAL IMPORTANCE

“We are what we eat” is an old proverb. Our nutritional

status, health, physical and mental faculties depends on the food

we eat and how eat it. Access to good quality food has been man’s

main endeavour from the earliest days of human existence. Food

like art and literature, is a reflection of culture. Historically, peoples

food choices were very limited by their geographical location. The

global food market of today is a result of technological advances in

food preservation and transportation.

Before the industrial revolution of the 19th century, must

people lived and worked on farms. Peoples lives were consumed

with growing, harvesting and preserving food for the writer months.

Wars could destroy crops, bringing famine. Famine in turn can lead

to disease, because of peoples already weakened immune system.

Food is an essential part of life. It is a focal point of celebrations

and holidays. What wedding would be complete without a cake?

How would we celebrate thanksgiving without a turkey? Even at

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funerals there is food, as a source of solace and comfort. Food is

an essential part of life just like air and water (Connoss and

Epstein1996). However, the food we eat represent who we are,

what we believe; and how we live. Food was extremely important in

ancient times. Mostly it was up to individual families to supply their

own food. Sources and history is full of starvation stories. Wars

have been lost or won on the supply of salt or the scarcity of food

(Barner, 2002).

Salt was once co valuable; it was used as money. In Rome

and Venice, salt was part of the Soldier’s weekly pay. It not only

seasoned food, it was an important means of preservation.

Although, slats and some methods were common to most nations,

each dealt with their food supply according to what was available

(Epstein 1996).

Adurale (2008) opines that food is the brain behind every

smiles, the secret of every succulent cheek and face, the master

minder of every battles won, a friend to human skin colour and

paramountly, the man behind the scene for every better interactive

society. Although one can live several weeks without food, we

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(humans) need an adequate amount to stay healthy. Without food

our mental and physical capabilities will deteriorate rapidly, and we

become weak. Food replenishes the substances that our body

burns and provide energy. It provides Vitamins, minerals, salts, and

other elements essential to morale. Therefore, proper nutrition is

essential.

The two basic source of food are plants and animals

(including fish). In varying degrees both provide the calories,

carbohydrates, fats and protein needed for normal daily body

function. Calories are a measure of heat and potential energy.

Calories are a measure of heat and potential energy. The average

person needs 2,000 calories performance day to function at a

minimum level. An adequate amount of carbohydrates, fats and

proteins without an adequate calorie intake will lead to starvation

and cannibalism of body’s own tissue for energy.

Plants food provide carbohydrate the main source of energy.

Many plants provide enough protein to keep the body at normal

efficiency. Although plants may not provide a balanced diet, they

will sustain man even in the aretic, where meat’s heat-producing

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qualities are normally essential. Many plants food such as nuts and

seeds will give you enough protein and oil for normal efficiency.

Roots, green vegetables and plant food containing natural sugar

will provide calories and carbohydrates that give the body natural

energy.

Animal food is more nourishing than plants food. In fact it

may even be more readily available in some places. However, to

get meat, we need to know the habit of, and how to capture the

various wildlife especially those that are more abundant and more

easily sustained such as insects, mollusks, fish and reptiles. These

can satisfy the immediate hunger while preparing traps and snares

for large game.

If there is anything all men have in common with animals,

then it is the necessity for daily food. For rich or poor alike a certain

amount of food is necessary to keep the body in good condition.

Food safety is therefore a basic requirement of food supply.

“Food safety implies absence or acceptable and safe level of

contaminants, adulterants, naturally occurring toxins or any other

substance that may make food injurious to health on an acute or

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chronic basis (Adewale, 2008). Food quality can be considered as

a complex characteristics of food that determines its value or

acceptability to consumers. Besides safety, quality attributes

includes; nutritional value; organoleptic properties such as

appearance colour, texture, taste; and functional properties.

The paradox of widespread food insecurity and malnutrition

in large parts of the world alongside net food surpluses emerging in

recent decades. It is now reaching very worrisome proportions.

2.2 HISTORICAL TREND OF FOOD CRISIS

Since the 1970’s, food production has become increasingly

globalized and concentrated. A handful of countries dominate the

global trade in staple foods. 80% of wheat exports come from sox

exporters as does 85% of rice. Three countries produce 70% of

exported corn. This leaves the world’s poorest countries, the ones

that must import food to survive, at the mercy of economic trends

and policies in few exporting companies. When the global food

trade system stops delivering, it’s the poor who pay the price.

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For several years, the global trade in staple foods has been

heading towards a crisis several related trends have slowed

production and pushed prices up.

In the 1960s and 1970s, in an effort to counter peasant

discontent in Southeast Asia, the US poured money and technical

support into agricultural development in India and other countries.

The “green revolution”- new seeds, fertilizers, pesticides,

agricultural techniques and infrastructure led to spectacular

increases in food production, particularly rice. Yield per hectare

continued expanding until the 1990s. (Cairnes 2006)

Today, it’s not fashionable for government to help poor

people grow food for other poor people because “the market” is

supposed to take care of all probles. The Economist reports that

“spending on farming as a share of total public spending in

developing countries fell by half between 1980 and 2004”.

Subsidies have dried up, and production growth stalled. As a result,

in seven of the past eight years the world consumed more grain

than it produced, which means that rice was being removed from

the inventories that governments and dealers normally hold as

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insurance against bad harvests. World grain stocks are now at their

lowest point ever leaving very little cussion for bad times.

Scientist say that climate change could cut food production in

parts of the world by 50% in the next 12 years. But that isn’t just a

matter for the future:

Australia is normally the world’s second largest exporter of

grain, but a savage multi-year drought has reduced the wheat crop

by 60% and rice production has been completely wiped out.

In Bangladesh in November 2006, one of the strongest

cyclones in decades wiped out a million tones of rice and severely

damaged the wheat crop making the huge country even more

dependent on imported food.

Wheat and barley was grown in the nile valley of Egypt. This

country, because of the hot, dry weather was limited in its

agriculture. Wheat and barley grew well and it was eaten in many

different ways as bread, as soup and porridge until the recent crisis

swept through the land.

Other examples abound. It is clear that the global climate

crisis is already here, and it is has affected the supply of food.

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It is now official policy in the US, Canada and Europe to

convert food into fuel. US vehicles burn enough corn to cover the

entire import needs of the poorest 82 countries. Ethanol and

biodiesel are very heavily subsidize, which mean, inevitably, that

crops like corn (maize) are being diverted out of the food chain and

into gas tanks, and that new agricultural investment worldwide is

being directed towards palm, soya, canola and other oil producing

plants. This increases the prices of agrofuel crops directly and

indirectly boosts the price of other grains by encouraging growers

to switch to agrofuel (UN, 2008). As Canadian hug producers have

found, it had also driven up the cost of producing meat, since corn

is the main ingredient in North American animal feed.

By the end of 2007, reduced investment, in the third world,

rising oil prices and climate change meant that production growth

was slowing and prices were rising. Good harvests and strong

export growth might have staved off a crisis- but that ins’t what

happened. The trigger was rice, the staple food of three billion

people (Robbert Zoellick, 2008).

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Early 2008, India announced that it was suspending most

rice exports in order to rebuild its reserves. A few weeks later,

Vietnam, whose rice crop was hit by a major insect infestation

during the harvest, announced a four-monthly suspension of

exports to ensure that enough would be available for its domestic

market. India and Vietnam together normally account for 30% of all

rice exports, so their announcements were enough to push the

already tight global rice market over the edge. Rice buyers

immediately started buying up available stocks, hoarding whatever

rice they could get in the expectation of future price increases.

By mid April, news reports described “panic buying” of rice

futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, and there were rice

shortages even on Supermarket shelves in Canada and the US.

There have been food price spikes before. Indeed, if we take

inflation into account, global prices for staple foods were higher in

the 1970s than they are today. So why has this inflationary

explosion provoked mass protest around the world? The answer is

that since the 1970s the richest countries in the world, aided by the

international agencies they control, have systematically

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undermined the poorest countries’ ability to feed their populations

and protect themselves in a crisis like this (UN, 2008)

Haiti is a powerful and appalling example. Rice has been

grown in Haiti for centuries, and until twenty years ago Haitan

farmers produced about 170,000 tonnes of rice a year enough to

cover 95% of domestic consumption. Rice farmers received no

government subsidies, but, as in every other rice – producing

country at the time, their access to local markets was protected by

import tariffs (Micky, 2008).

In 1995, as a condition of providing a desperately needed

loan, the international monetary fund required Haiti to cut its tariff

on imported rice from 35% to 3%, the lowest in the Caribbean. The

result was a massive influx of US rice that sold for half the price of

Haitan-grown rice. Thousand of rice farmers lost their lands and

livelihoods and today, three quarters o the rice eaten in Haiti comes

from the U.S. US rice didn’t take over the Haitan market because it

tastes better, or because US rice growers are more efficient.

The trend of the global food crisis had been for decades, with

the rich countries imposing liberalization “policies on poor and debt-

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ridden countries and then taking advantage of that liberalization to

capture the market. Government subsidies account for 30% of farm

revenue in the world’s 30 richest countries, a total of $280 billion a

year, an unbeatable advantage in a “free” market where the rich

rules (Micky, 2008).

The global food trade game is rigged, and the poor have

been left with reduced crops and no population. In addition for

several decades the world bank and international monetary und

have refused to advance loans to poor countries unless they agree

to “Structural Adjustment Programs” (SAP) that require the loan

recipient to devalue their currencies, cut taxes, privatize utilities

and reduce or eliminate support programmes for farmers. All these

was done with the promise that the market would produce

economic growth and prosperity- instead, poverty increased and

support for agriculture was eliminated.

The food price surges of recent years have created much

misery and raise once again the Mathusian spector. Increase in

demand for food in emerging economies, particularly China and

India, have frequently been identified as the dominant factor behind

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a perceived shock on the demand side. Use of crops for benefits

was listed as an additional, though less important factor. Yet global

cereals utilization without biofuels has been growing slowly at

decelerating rates, as in the past. It is the addition of biofuels that

has resulted in its growing faster than in the past. In parallel, global

production has been falling behind utilization for several years,

leading to declining stocks. Weather shocks, depreciation of the

dollar, and turbulence in the financial markets were added to these

fundamentals of the supply-demand balance to generate price

surges.

Victor Mallet (2007) argues in the financial daily that the

world wide food crisis is not due to a lack of supply-for the time

being-but rather to interruptions in free trade. “The immediate

cause of this crisis is not perhaps surprisingly- a shortage of food.

The problem is the sudden reluctance of traditional exporters to sell

their surpluses. As with credit providers in the seized-up credit

markets, each producer is hoarding its own supply in case of hard

times at home, because it suspects trading partners will do the

same. Trust in the efficiency and liquidity market has collapsed.

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Farm protectionism is not new. International farm trade has

nevertheless managed to satisfactorily for decades redistribute

surpluses of stable foods. The current seizures in the market are

therefore a cause for general alarm”.

Gerd Appenzeller (2008), opines that the Western world is

protecting its prosperity at the cost of less developed countries. “To

put it simply, the accusation directed in particular at the US,

Canada, Australia and Western Europe is that these States- the

richest in the world – are treating the rest of the planet like

colonies. By imposing their supposedly superior economic and

agrarian system on the Third World-albeit with the best intentions-

and exploiting their economic power, the industrialized nations are

running these countries there are plenty of straight forward

examples. The European Union is subsidizing the construction of

increasingly large fishing fleets and purchasing all the fishing rights

for Africa’s coasts. As a result, Portuguese and Spanish travelers

are taking over the traditional fishing ground of, for example the

Senegalese, so the latter, totally impoverished, are faced to sail the

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coasts of the canary island on dilapidated fishing beats in hope of

finding better future there”.

2.3 TREND OF FOOD CRISIS IN NIGERIA

With the exception of clothing and shelter as the basic

necessities of life, food remains the most vital because of its

centrality to human existence. It is a known fact that the ruthless

expedition for food has shaped human history, provoking wars,

driving migration and underpinning the growth of nations. In

Nigeria, the recent escalation of food prices call for sober reflection

owing to the fact that the globe is facing a worsening food crisis

period unseen in the last30 years and the potential of leading o

catastrophe.

Shortly over time, there has been discernible trend across

the region as a whole. Despite the strong growth in food

production, sub-Saharan Africa in the only region where the

number of hungry has risen in the last decade. The trend of food

crisis in Nigeria and Africa can be linked to inappropriate

agricultural policies that have stifled the continent’s great

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agricultural potential. Over the years nothing has been done to

address how yields-on the contrary, it seems as though

government has gone out of its way to stifle production. Agricultural

policies were enormous right form the conception and most were

ad-hoc in nature.

The appraisal of the part shows that successive

administration had initiated programmes towards ensuring that food

is available, accessible and adequate for the teaming population.

Unfortunately, the sustenance of these laudable ideas to fulfill their

mandates has remained a dream. Some of these programmes are ;

farm settlement scheme and National Accelerated Food Production

Programme (NAFPP), launched in 1972 by Gen. Yakubu Gowon;

Operation Feed The Nation introduced by the Muritala/Obasanjo

administration; River Basin and Rural Development Authority

established in 1976; Green Revolution and the World bank founded

Agricultural Development Project (ADP) launched by the

administration of Shehu Shagari in 1980; and Babangida’s

Directorate for Food, Road and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI).

Despite the efforts, agriculture has been constrained by numerous

25

challenges like rural-urban migration, wavering policies formulation

and implement insufficient infrastructure support; poor input

distribution system; emphasis on oil economy; pricing system; over

dependence on rain-fed farming; poor capacity utilization,

investor’s confidence; environmental degradation; poor access to

funds; poor socioeconomic status of farmers and insufficient

technological transfer system, corruption and poor commitment to

implementation of agricultural policies (Samaila 2009)

In the history of Nigeria, the upsurge of food prices had not

been this persistent. As food prices had not been made to

understand, the problem in global in nature. It is caused by the

diversion of some of these food crops by Western countries for the

making of biofuels, ethanoland the rest”. By trying to protect the

local rice growers, the government has shielded them from

competition. Farmers have not had the incentive to improve the

quality of their crops, nor crops yields. This in turn breeds low

production. Government duties and other levies starve poor people

to death- they drive up the cost of food needlessly (Ruma, 2009).

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Customers duty on rice imports in Nigeria is at 55 %

including a 5 % levy for increasing local production. In neighbouring

Benin, rice merely attracts a huge 35% duty. In monetary terms this

represents a whopping US $200 per ton price advantage over

imports through Nigerian ports (Ruma, 2008). Over the years,

corruption have affected the distribution of ferterlizers which have

increase the country’s vulnerability to food crisis. To make things

worse, import tariffs have put fertilizer out of many people’s reach

leading to low yield and hard manual labour. The present mode of

fertilizer distribution is cumbersome and manipulatable, as sizeable

amounts of fertilizer end up in the hands of politician and then

colonies who rake in profits at the expense of farmers. Meanwhile,

efforts to embrace biotechnology to improve yields have been

thwarted by well fed groups of, largely western, activist whether

other are hungry seems to be of importance to them.

Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of

various staples including wheat, rice, maize and vegetable oil.

Such restriction may indeed protect local industry for a short time,

but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production

27

in the long run. Protection from competition and innovation allows

local producers to hike up prices on lover quality goods. Relaxing

these restrictive trade practices will increase the availability of food

and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get credit through to

farmers have achieved little as moist of the funds were either

mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands. However, all end up

in the hands of politicians and their colonies who rake in profits at

the expense of farmers. Meanwhile, efforts to embrace

biotechnology to improve yields have been thwarted by well-fed

groups of, largely Western activist; whether others are hungry

seems to be of no importance to them.

Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of

various staples including wheat, rice, maize, and vegetable oil.

Such restrictions may indeed protect local industry for a short time,

but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production

in the long run. Protectionism from competition and innovation

allows local producers to hike up prices on lower-quantity goods.

Relaxing these restrictive trade practices will increase the

availability of food and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get

28

credit through to farmers have achieved little as most of the funds

were either mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands.

However, all end up in the hands of politicians and their colonies

who rake in profits at the expense of farmers. Meanwhile, efforts to

embrace biotechnology to improve yields have been thwarted by

well-fed groups of, largely Western activist; whether others are

hungry seems to be of no importance to them.

Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of

various staples including wheat, rice, maize, and vegetable oil.

Such restrictions may indeed protect local industry for a short time,

but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production

in the long run. Protectionism from competition and innovation

allows local producers to hike up prices on lower-quantity goods.

Relaxing these restrictive trade practices will increase the

availability of food and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get

credit through to farmers have achieved little as most of the funds

were either mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands.

However, all end up in the hands of politicians and their colonies

who rake in profits at the expense of farmers. Meanwhile, efforts to

29

embrace biotechnology to improve yields have been thwarted by

well-fed groups of, largely Western activist; whether others are

hungry seems to be of no importance to them.

Nigeria at different times has banned the importation of

various staples including wheat, rice, maize, and vegetable oil.

Such restrictions may indeed protect local industry for a short time,

but it punishes consumers immediately and discourages production

in the long run. Protectionism from competition and innovation

allows local producers to hike up prices on lower-quantity goods.

Relaxing these restrictive trade practices will increase the

availability of food and a fall in prices. Efforts in the past to get

credit through to farmers have achieved little as most of the funds

were either mismanaged or ended up in the wrong hands. This

had aggravated the problem of food availability which in turns

affect both the poor and the rich as it increases the disposable

income and reduces the savings of house hold and firms and

consequently reduces investment.

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2.4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD CRISIS AND

ECONOMIC GROWTH

It is a relatively old idea that at low income levels there is a

relationship between nutrition and labour productivity. This

hypothesis is known as the Efficiency Wage Hypothesis.

Leibenstein (1957) and later Murlees (1975) and Stiglitz (1976)

argued that an increase in caloric intake enables workers to

perform more demanding tasks expressed in a greater marginal

productivity as measured by wages. Households produce both

marketable and non marketable goods. The nutritional (such as an

improved weight- for age of children) or health outcome (such as

individual morbidity) of a household is produced “by inputs, some of

which are subject to choice by the household. Hence individual

nutrient intake, activity levels and infections may be regarded as

resulting from current household decisions. In turn, the current

nutrient intake may affect the worker productivity. If this is

recognized by the market, i.e. local labour markets operate

relatively free and higher productivity is rewarded with higher

wages, then better nutrition should result in higher market earnings,

31

since workers would either be paid more for a given time unit of

work, or they would be able to work in particularly taxing and

rewarding activities or both (Strauss, 1993).

However, in estimating this relationship, a methodological

pitfall occurs, the causality can run in both directive and hence earn

higher wages, and higher income will probably be spent for more

nutrients and make household members more healthy so that they

can earn higher wages. If this simultaneously is not accounted for,

estimates will be biased and inconsistent, a failure that has been

attributed to a number of early studies. Both experimental studies

and social economic surveys have attempted to quantify the effect

of nutrient intake on productivity.

- Experimental Studies

Among experimental studies, Key etal (1950) researched

how activity levels fall when males are subject to dramatic

decreases in Caloric intake. He found that activity levels fall

abruptly, when diets are reduced from 3,500 calories per day to

1,500 calories per day. In this experiment the total diet was

controlled, so that the problem of simultaneity did not arise.

32

Wolgemuth etal (1982) compared the gains in productivity of

workers moving earth, where one group was supplemented with

200 calories per day. They found a 12.5 percentage gain in

productivity by the highly supplemented group an a significant

output elasticity of calories on productivity of 0.5.

For the relationship between iron giving food deficiency and

productivity, Basta et al (1979) compared productivity of rubber

plantain workers in Indonesia. A group of workers received iron

supplements while another group received a placebo. Before the

intervention, the difference in labour productivity between anemic

and non anemic workers ranged from 18.7% to 20%, depending on

the task. After the intervention no statistically significant difference

in productivity was found between the two intervention groups.

2.4 THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT FOOD CRISIS ON

NIGERIAN ECONOMY.

When the global financial melt down started mid last year, it

was widely believed that the toxic assets in America and European

banks were not in African banks. The banks were given a clean bill.

33

But right from the very beginning experts had warned that the

financial crunch could lead to economic recession which would

have dive consequences for the Nigerian economy. Crude oil

prices then had come down to $82 per barrel, Nigerians tool the

whole thing for granted faithing it that in the least crude oil prices

will stabilize at $50 per barrel. So the government went ahead and

proposed the 2009 budget on $45 per barrel of Crude oil.

Today, oil prices are in the region of $40 per barrel and still

drowning. Revenue from oil has plunged, external reserves in

which the country boosted has dropped to about $50 billion mid last

year. The naira exchange rate has depreciated by about 25

percent. The government faced with stack economic reality set up

an economic crisis management committee, headed by President

Umar Yar’adua.

Early last year, about 2000 poor masses hit the streets in

Cote D’Ivoire chanting “we are hungry”, “life is to expensive”, while

protesting the rise in food prices and attendant high cost of living.

The Ivorian protests were aptly expressing the harrowing agony of

hundreds of millions of people that have been pushed deeper into

34

poverty by the prevailing global food cost crisis. The last few years

have witnessed protest marches in Senegal, Cameroon, Burkina

Faso, Indonesia, Egypt, Philippines and some other countries in

the developing world. Significantly, the protest has brought down

the government of Haiti (Peluola 2008).

Globally, the price of staple crops such as wheat, rice and

corn have all risen, leading to an increase in overall food prices of

83% in the last three years, the World Bank says specifically

according to the Bloomberg survey, between March 2007 and

March 2008, the corn increased by 31%, rice 74%, soya 87% and

wheat 130%. Worse, there is no hope of improvement around the

corner; the poor masses have to gird their lions for expensive

foods. The World Bank has forecast that food crops are expected

to remain high in 2008 and 2009 and begin to decline, but they are

likely to remain well above the 2004 levels through 2015 for most

food crops (Peluola, 2008).

In Nigeria, there have not been protests but beneath the

apparent temperate social atmosphere is the growing tempest of

anger from workers and poor masses that have started staggering

35

under heavy blows of high cost of living. The cost of staples like

sugar, maize millet, wheat and rice have increased considerably in

the last few months. The price of a 50kg bag of rice for instance,

has increased from N6000 last December to about N10000 at

present. The Master Bakers Association has given notice of 25%

increase in bread prices by May 2009, coming much less than a

year after the last increase by the same rate. The association

rightly cited the astronomical rise in wheat flour and sugar prices

for the planned price review. (Ruma, 2008).

The average Nigerian family spends 73% of their budget on

food putting this together with cost of self help power generation

occasioned by the near collapse of public electricity, it means that

almost the entire take home pay is spent on food and energy.

Already the price of a bag of rice is higher than the minimum wage

of N7500 in the country.

According to the Minister of Agriculture, Sayyadi Abba

Ruma, worse days are ahead of Nigeria’s working masses. He

painted gloomy picture of the food crisis situation in the country

especially as regards production of rice. “We require 2.5million

36

metric tones of rice annually and our local rice production is not up

to 500000 metric tones per year” (Daily Trust, 2008). This implies

that Nigeria imports 80% of its rice consumption. Indeed Nigerian

are just in the frying pan on an inevitable transition to fire. Why?

Thailand, China, India, Vietnam and other countries from which

Nigeria imports its rice have placed export restrictions on the

commodity in order to safeguard their own domestic rice

requirement. In Nigeria, rice is already in short supply and

speculations have already taken it toll, the continued rise in prices

stave the poor masses in the face.

Every sector of Nigerian economy is a cesspit of corruption.

The ongoing probes of some transactions of last administration

have confirmed this. Stirring agriculture sector will surely exudes

more sickening stench than what has been revealed. The

deliberation of House of Representatives on the food crisis was

somewhat revealing of what normally becomes of the allocation to

the agriculture. While opposing the motion for supplementary

budget for the sector in order to tackle food crisis, Eta Enang, a

member of the House, argued that since 1999, an estimated

37

N78billion average had been voted for agriculture yearly without

result. He complained further that the bulk of money never got to

the real farmers but ended up settling over-head cost or agriculture

research that had not come with solutions. (Punch, 2008).

2.5 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.5.1 THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION

Thomas Robert Malthus enunciated his views about

population in his faous book, Essay on the Principle of Population

as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society; published in 1798.

Malthus revolted against the prevailing optimism shared by his

father and Godwin that a perfect state could be attained if human

restraints could be removed. Malthus’ objection was that the

pressure of increasing population on the food supply would destroy

perfection and there would be misery in the world. Malthus was

severely criticized for his pessimistic views which led him to travel

on the continent of Europe to gather data in support of his thesis.

He incorporated his researches in the second edition of his essay

published in 1803.

38

The Malthusian theory explains the relationship between the

growth in food supply and in population. It states that population

increases faster than food supply and if unchecked leads to vice or

misery. The Malthusian doctrine is stated as follows:

1. There is a natural sex instinct in human beings to increase at

a fast rate. As a result, population increases in geometrical

progression and if unchecked doubles itself every 25 years. Thus

starting from 1, population in successive periods of 25 years will be

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 (after 200 years).

2. On the other hand, the food supply increases in a slow

arithmetical progression due to the operation of the law of

diminishing returns based on the supposition that the supply of land

is constant. Thus the food supply in successive similar periods, will

be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (after 200 years).

3. Since population increases in geometrical progression and

the food supply in arithmetical progression, population tends to out

run food supply. Thus an imbalance is created which leads to over-

population. This is depicted in Figure 21.1.

39

The food supply in arithmetical progression is measured on the

horizontal axis and the population in geometrical progression on

the vertical axis. The curve M is the Malthusian population curve

which shows the relation between population growth and increase

in food supply. It rises upward swiftly.

4. To control over-population resulting from the imbalance

between population and food supply, Malthus suggested preventive

checks and positive checks.

The preventive checks are applied by a man to control the

birth rate. They are foresight, late marriage, celibacy, moral

restraint, etc.

If people fail to check growth of population by the adoption of

preventive checks, positive checks operate in the form of vice,

misery, famine, war, disease, pestilence, floods and other natural

calamities which tend to reduce population and thereby bring a

balance with food supply. According to Malthus, preventive checks

are always in operation in a civilized society, for positive checks are

crude. Malthus appealed to his countrymen to adopt preventive

40

checks in order to avoid vice or misery resulting from the positive

checks. Malthus’ doctrine is illustrated below.

41

Imbalance leads to over

population

corrected by

DIAGRAMMATIC ILLUSTRATION OF THE THEORY

Population increases in Food increases in geometrical progression 1,2,4, arithmetical progression 1, 2, 38,16,32,64,128,256 in 200 years. 4,5,6,7, 8, 9, in 200 years

Preventive checks- late Positive checks-vice, marriage, chastity, moral misery, war, famine, restraint, etc. floods, etc.

IMPLICATION OF THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY

POPULATION ON THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY

Malthus argued that population was held within resource

limits by two types of checks; positive ones which raised the death

rate and preventive ones, which lowered the birth rate.

42

Nigeria, with population of 140 million people currently

experiences a significant gap between her population is relatively

high compared to the availability of food; thus giving rise to the

already nagging food crisis in the economy “only few people can

afford three square meal in a day, because soared to an

unimaginable height in the last 12 months.

The demand side of India and China is also a major factor

militating against the availability of food-staple foods in consumable

and commercial quantum. According to world population bulletin,

India and China commands a greater percent of the estimated 6.5

billion people living on the face of the earth. Haiti, the Nigeria’s

major exporter of rice and wheat is now solely supplying China

thereby reducing Nigeria’s accessibility to abundant rice (Ruma,

2009).

2.5 THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT FOOD CRISIS ON

NIGERIAN ECONOMY

When the global financial melt-down started mid last year, it

was widely believed that the toxic assets in America and European

banks were not in African banks. The banks were given a clean bill.

43

But right from the very beginning experts had warned that the

financial crunch would lead to economic recession which would

have dire consequences for the Nigerian economy. Crude oil prices

then had come down to $ 82 per barrel, Nigerians took the whole

thing for granted faithing that in the least crude oil prices will

stabilize at $50 per barrel. So the government went ahead and

proposed the 2009 budget in $45 barrel of crude oil.

Today, oil prices are in the region of $40 per barrel and still

drowning. Revenue from oil has blunged, external reserves in

which the country boasted has dropped to about $50 billion mid last

year. The naira exchange rate has depreciated by about 25

percent. The government faced with slack economic reality set up

an economic crisis management committee, headed by President

Umar Yar’adua.

Early last year, about 2000 poor masses hit the streets in

Cote d’ivoire chanting “we are hungry”, “life is too expensive”, while

protesting the rise in food prices and attendant high cost of living.

The Ivorian protests were aptly expressing the harrowing agony of

hundreds of million of people that have been pushed deeper into

44

poverty by the prevailing global food cost crisis. The last few years

have witnessed protest matches in Senegal, Cameroon, Burkina

Faso, Indonesia, Egypt, Philippines and some other countries in

the developing world. Significantly, the protest has brought down

the government of Haiti (Peluola, 2008).

Globally, the price of staple crops such as wheat, rice and

corn have all risen, leading to an increasing in overall food prices of

83% in the last three years, the World Bank says specifically,

according to the Bloomberg survey, between March 2007 and

March 2008, the corn increased by 31%, rice 74%, Soya 87% and

Wheat . Worse, there is no hope of improvement around the

corner; the poor masses have to gird their loins for expensive

foods. The World Bank has forecast that food crops are expected

to remain high in 2008 and 2009 and begin to decline, but they are

likely to remain well above the 2004 levels through 2015 for most

food crops (Peluola, 2008).

In Nigeria, there have not been protest but beneath the

apparent temperate social atmosphere is the growing tempest of

anger from workers and poor masses that have started staggering

45

under heavy blows of high cost of living. The cost of staples like

sugar, maize, millet, wheat & rice have increased considerably in

the last few months. The price of a 50kg bag of rice for instance

has increased from N6000 last December to about N10000 at

present (March, 2009). The Master Bakers Association has given

notice of 25% increase in bred prices by May 2008, coming much

less than a year after the last increase by the same rate. The

association rightly cited the astronomical rise in wheat flour and

sugar prices for the planned price review (Ruma, 2009).

The average Nigerian family spends 73% of their budget on

food putting this together with self help power generation

occasioned by the near collapse of public electricity, it means that

almost the entire take home pay is spent on food and energy.

Already the price of a bag of rice is higher than the minimum wage

of N7500 in the country. According to the Minister of Agriculture,

Sayyadi Abba Ruma, worse days are ahead of Nigeria’s working

masses. He painted gloomy picture of the food crisis situation in

the country especially as regards production of production. “We

require 2.5 million metric tones of rice annually and our local rice

46

production is not up to 5000000 metric tones per year. This implies

that Nigeria imports 80% of its rice consumption. Indeed Nigerians

are just in the frying pan on an inevitable transition to fire. Why?

Thailand, China, India, Vietnam and other order to safeguard their

own domestic rice requirement. In Nigeria, rice is already in short

supply and speculations have already taken its supply and

speculations have already taken its toll the continued rise in price

stare the poor masses in the face.

Every sector of Nigerian economy is a cesspit of corruption.

The ongoing probes of some transactions of last administration

have confirmed this. Stirring agriculture sector will surely exudes

more sickening stench than what has been revealed. The

deliberations of House of Representative on the food crisis was

somewhat revealing of what normally becomes of the allocation to

the agriculture. While opposing the motion for supplementary

budget for the sector in order to tackle food crisis, Eta Enang, a

member of the House, argued that since 1999, an estimated N78

billion average had been voted for agriculture yearly without result.

He complained further that the bulk of money never got to the real

47

farmers but ended up settling over-head cost or agriculture

research that had not come with solutions (Punch, 2008).

Trade liberalization has also meant that Nigeria and other

African countries are net importers of food. In order to generate

foreign exchange to either pay debt or, to much lesser extent,

develop their local economies, African countries are encouraged to

concentrate on production of cash crops ass against staple foods.

But these commodities have been made to cell at rock-bottom

prices by dictate of multinational food companies like Nestle and

flooding of market by cheap, heavily subsidized farm product from

the Us and Europe. For instance, West and Central Africa

potentially lose $240 million in Annual revenue form cotton exports

due to US subsidies alone, a study commissioned by the World

Bank reveals.

All this has affected development of agricultural exports in

Africa. As a result, Africa’s share of global agriculture exports have

dropped significantly, for instance from 8 percent in 1971-1980 to

3.4 percent in 1991-2000. According to he FAO, Africas’s

Agriculture deficit reached $20 billion in 2001-2003 (Enang, 2008).

48

The export earning of most African countries cannot cover

the food import bill because the prices of exports have not kept

pace with basic staples. They may be forced into another round of

debt peonage. The World Bank is already talking of doubling

agricultural loans to African countries from $400 million to $800

million (Robbert Zoellick). Though, they are booty traps, the World

bank loans are long terms. Then more deadly companions, the

loans from commercial banks, may not be forthcoming. The global

financial market crisis with its attendant credit of squeeze has

always threatened to make matters worse.

The soaring food prices, further triggered by heinous and

parasitic activities of capitalist speculators on commodity markets,

have created another scary chapter in the growing crisis of World

capitalism, which is already grappling with a serious financial

market crisis. Some economic analysts have already seen another

great depression lurking in the shadow. At present developing

countries are the worst hit of the food crisis.

Nigeria as a country highly depending on food imports,

Nigeria suffered from rocketing prices of basic food items since the

49

beginning of 2008. The price like is believed to reduce accessibility

of food for needy people to maintain their lives. The food crisis also

touched the various classes of people-upper, middle and lower

class. Investment in Nigeria Stock Market has also come under

huge pressure as dealers said that market would continue to

experience depression. It is learnt that the capitalization of the

Stock Market has dropped by 9.3 percent in less than 2 months as

the bears took over the control of the nation’s capital market.

2.7 AN APPRAISAL OF LITERATURE REVIEWED

The global food crisis has been sparked by a variety of

causes, some of which have been slow to develop. The major

contributing are: increase in oil prices, drought and climate change,

increased biofuels production, export restrictions, reduced grain

strikes, changes in income, population growth, urbanization,

speculation and decline in agricultural productivity.

Food problems have forced some Nigerians to engage in

social vices, which are having a negative impact on the nation.

These social vices include ethnic religions conflict, earned robbery,

50

prostitution, child trafficking etc. a hungry man is an easy target for

selfish member of the bourgeoise who would buy their services for

a price to foment anarchy within the society. From time immemorial

inadequate nutrition has been linked to lawlessness.

To get the global food crisis under control will require a

significant amount of strategic actions on the part of not just the

Nigerian government but government around the world and may

large conglomerates that control access to food.

51

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN

This research adopts an oral interview and personal

observation for the gather of facts. Fifteen questions were

structured and weighed as Yes or No. The main advantage of this

type of scale is the ease with which the subjects can complete the

format orderly and quickly.

3.2 RSEARCH AREA

The study covers three (3) randomly selected states in the

Southwest part of Nigeria. The selected states are:

1. Lagos state being the commercial nerve centre of the nation.

2. Oyo state having Ibadan which is the larges city in West

Africa as its State Capital.

3. Ogun state which is the resident state of the researcher.

3.3 SAMPLE AND SAMPLING PROCEDURE

Sample: The sample comprises of thiry (3) citizen residing in any

part of the three states selected for the purpose of this study.

52

Sampling: Three states are randomly selected. In each of the

states, ten (10) citizens will be randomly selected and thus be

given the opportunity to respond to the interview.

In carrying out the research work, the researcher, bearing it

in mind that not all Nigerian citizen can be interviewed must not be

bias in his selection. Hence, all class of citizens-lower, middle and

upper class will be interviewed for the purpose of precision and

validation of facts.

3.4 RESEARCH INSTRUMENT

The instrument used is oral interview. The researcher

develops some questions for interview with the aim of investigating

how the current food crisis has affected the Nigerian economy.

The items for interview will contain information such as

name, age, occupation, cadre and two (2) columns to express their

feelings though in a closed form i.e Yes and No.

3.5 VALIDATION OF RESEARCH INSTRUMENT

Validity is simply defined as the degree of which a test

measures what it is supposed to measure. Validity is the most

53

important quality of any test. If is concerned with what a test

measures and for which it is appropriate, since tests are designed

for a variety of purpose and validity can be evaluated only in terms

of purpose (Laolu, 2002).

Therefore to determine the content validity of the research

instrument, the drafted questions or items will be given to the

project supervisor for proper moderation after which the researcher

administers the instrument in order to evaluate it purpose and

validity.

54

3.6 DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE

Data are raw unprocessed facts from which reliable and

useful conclusion may be drawn. Both primary and secondary data

are used for the analysis in the study.

For the purpose of this study, primary data are collected by

orally interviewing the respondents. The researcher may have to

speak in mother, tongue, if the need be.

3.7 DATA ANALYSIS STRATEGY

The information collected will be collated and analysed using

the econometric method of correlation. The correlation survey will

be adopted for the purpose of investigating the impact of the

current food crisis on the Nigerian economy.

Rank correlation formulae is given as

R = 1 - 6 ∑ d 2

n(n2-1)

55

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

4.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter presents copious and detailed analysis,

explanation and coherent descriptions of the divergent data

generated from the respondents of pertinent to the research work.

Hence thirty (30) people where interviewed and the results shall be

presented analytically in various variables for proper understanding

and its different hypothetical results shall be presented to form the

expected result of this research work.

4.2 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

Table 1

Distribution of Respondents according to Sex

Gender Frequency Percentage Total

Male 15 50 15

Female 15 50 15

Total 30 100 30

Source: Author Survey.

56

From the table above, it is obviously seen that the researcher

is not gender bias in his interview as equal proportion of male and

female were interviewed, that is fifteen (15) males and fifteen (15)

females.

Table II

Distribution of respondents according to level of Education

Status Frequency Percentage

Literate 20 66.7

Illiterate 10 33.3

Total 30 100

The table above shows that 66.7% of the total sample were

literate while 33.3% of same are illiterates. This is a pointer the fact

that results gathered here are reliable and realistic.

Table III

Distribution of Respondents according to their occupation

Occupation Frequency Percentage(%)

Trader 5 16.7

57

Civil Servants 7 23.3

Students 3 10.0

Business Tycoon 5 16.7

Others 10 33.3

Total 30 100

The table above shows the distribution of respondents

according to their occupation. It can be seen that five (5)

representing 16.7% of the total sample are traders, seven (7)

representing 23.3% of the total sample are civil

servants,three(3)respondents representing 10% of the total sample

are student while the business tycoons are represented 16.7% of

the total sample and others under which are farmers artisan and

the unemployed represent 33.3% of the total sample.

4.3 HYPOTHESIS TESTING USING THE ECONOMETRIC

TOOL OF CORRELATION ANALYSIS (SPEARMAN’S RANK

COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION)

58

R = 1 - 6∑d 2

n(n2-1)

where N = number of pairs of values

∑ = summation

d =

Hypothesis 1

Ho: There is no significant relationship between the recent food

crisis and increase in social vices.

Table IV

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD CRISIS AND SOCIAL VICES

X Y RX RY RX-RY d2

28 2 1 5 -4 16

26 4 2.5 3.5 -1 1

21 9 4 2 3 4

15 15 5 1 4 16

26 4 2.5 3.5 -1 1

0 38

59

SOURCE: AUTHOR’S COMPUTATION

From the table above the Spearman’s rank correlation

coefficient (R) is 0.9 which indicates a strong and positive

correlation between food crisis and increase in social vices.

Hypothesis II

Ho: There is no significant relationship between increase in

population and upsurge in food prices.

Table 5

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INCREASE IN POPULATION AND

UPSURGE OF FOOD PRICES

X Y RX RY RX-RY d2

22 8 1 5 -4 16

12 18 5 1 4 16

20 10 2.5 3.5 -1 1

20 10 2.5 3.5 -1 1

15 15 4 2 2 4

0 38

60

The (R) which is the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient

from the above table indicates a positive and strong relationship

between increase population and increase in food prices. The R of

0.9 is a pointer to the fact that the rapid growth rate of population is

a catalyst to food crisis in Nigeria.

Hypothesis III

Ho: There is no significant relationship between economic

meltdown and food price surges.

Table 6

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC MELT DOWN AND

FOOD PRICE SURGES

X Y RX RY RX-RY d2

12 18 3 3 0 0

22 8 2 4 -2 4

6 24 5 1 4 16

10 20 4 2 2 4

25 5 1 5 -4 16

0 40

61

Table 6 above shows a Spearman’s correlation coefficient result of

1.00 which indicate a unity relationship between economic

meltdown and increase in food prices. This shows that the credit

crunch is highly responsible for the global financial crisis.

4.4 ECONOMIC IMPLICATION OF RESULTS

The result from hypothesis one shows that there is a strong

and positive correlation between food crisis and increase in social

vices. This means that a marginal increase in the prices of food will

lead to automatic increase in social vices. This result is consistent

with Black et al (2001) who claimed that “a time will come when

there will no longer be robbers of money, but food robbers because

gone are the days when we go to market with money in our

pockets and return home with food in our baskets. Today we go to

the market with money in our baskets and food in our pockets”.

However hypothesis two tested shows that an upsurge in

food crisis is a function of increase in population. To Malthus, a

time will come when the available food will not be able to go round

62

the increasing population. He said that he rate of increase in food

production is an arithmetic progression while increase in population

is in geometric progression. This potends great danger for a

country like Nigeria with an ever increasing population and only few

percentage of such population are willing to go into agriculture.

Lastly there is a relationship- a positive one between

economic melt-down and food price surges. The recent global

financial crisis had ensured that the prices of wheat- the food of the

common man doubles its price in the last 12 month. Grain foods

prices increases over 100% in the last 18 months (Roebert Zoell,

2008). However, in Nigeria, the increase in the prices of food had

lowered saving habits and increase disposable income which

consequently reduces investments. In an economy where there is

little or no investments, there occurs paradox of savings.

4.5 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

In this study, an attempt was made to measure the impact of

the current food crisis on the Nigerian economy. Three (3)

hypothesis were tested and the null hypothesis were all rejected

and conversely accepting the alternative hypothesis.

63

Hypothesis are states that “there is no significant relationship

between the recent food crisis and increase in social vices”. The

analysis in table IV however shows a strong and positive

relationship between food crisis and escalation in crime rates. This

may be due to the inability of parents to cater for their children as a

result of larger percentage of their disposable income going to food

consumption leaving them with little or nothing to invest on the

education of their children. It is a popular saying that an idle hands

is the devils workshop, children, teenagers and youths may take to

crime when they are idle, hungry or not will catered for.

Hypothesis two states that “there is no significant relationship

between increase in population growth rate and upsurge in food

crisis”. From the analysis in table five, it is seen that there is also a

strong positive relationship between population growth and food

crisis. This is in line with the Malthusian theory population. Malthus

argued that population was held within resource limits by two types

of checks positive ones which raised death rate and preventive

ones which lowered birth rates.

64

Nigeria, with a population of 140 million people currently

experiences a significant gap between her population and the trend

of food supply. The population is relatively high compared to the

availability of food; this giving a rise to the already nagging food

crisis in the economy “only few people can afford three course

meals a day, because the price of stable food had seared to an

unimaginable height in the last 12 months” (Ruma, 2008).

However, hypothesis three states that “there is no significant

relationship between economic melt down and food crisis”. The

table six however showed a perfect agreement between economic

meltdown and global food crisis. “ The same factors responsible for

the global credit crunch is undoubtedly those responsible for the

food crisis, lives are wasting away, crops are found on the street of

Somalia because of this food crisis, it has even hit the world’s

richest country”. (Kaplan, 2008). It should however be borne in min

that an attempt to proffer solution to the lingering economic crisis

will inadvertently translate to a curve for the endemic global food

crisis

65

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 SUMMARY

Nigeria is currently experiencing a serious food crisis in its

history. The crisis manifest itself in the inability of the nation to

produce enough food to feed its population and the need to import

food at exorbitant prices. food shortage and hunger have resulted

in the incidence of malnutrition and kwashiorkor among its citizen.

Successive government in Nigeria have however failed to provide

enough food to meet the needs of their citizens. This study have

however explored various cause and reasons for the current food

crisis in the nation. Among the identifiable reasons are:

i. The World Bank and IMF set up largely by the US following

the second world war are notorious for refusing to advance loans to

poor countries unless they agree to structural adjustment

programmes that require the loan recipient to devalue their

currencies, cut taxes, private utilities and reduce or eliminate

support programmes for farmers. The result are a weakened state,

66

impoverished local farmers and increased economic domination by

international dominations.

ii. Rich country subsidies: In Canada for example, allow the

federal government to pay farmers $225 for each pig killed in an

ongoing mass call of breeding swine, as part of a plan to reduce

pork production.

iii. Biofuel programmes are now channeling massive quantities

of cereal and other crops to produce fuel for the worlds wealthy to

run their second and third family cars while close to a billion starve.

iv. The current US sponsored wars in the middle east with the

resultant skyrocketing oil price, are merely accelerating a descent

into the abyss, as it and its conjunct, NATO, continue to expand

beyond all responsible limits and venture unto Asia, threatening

more and more recalcitrant countries with loss of sovereignty,

subversion and outright invasion. Others include neglect of the

agricultural sector in favour of the oil sector, global warming etc.

5.2 CONCLUSION

Having competed the analysis of this research findings, the

following conclusions have been drawn.

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Efforts should be made by government and all

conglomerates that controls access to food to engineer efforts

towards encouraging agriculture as this will go a long way curbing

the lingering crisis. The study revealed that there is a strong

relationship between food crisis and social vices.

It was also revealed in the course of research that a

significant relationship exists between population an upsurge in

food prices. The relationship here is direct that is a population

increases, food prices also increase which posses great challenge

to the Nigerian economy and the world at large.

The lingering credit crunch rocking the globe is another

notable factor responsible for food crisis world over. An attempt to

proffer solution to the economic melt down will translate to a curve

for the ‘disease’ global food crisis.

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS

As Robert Zoellick (2008) puts, in 2020, the world’s

population will mostly likely reach 7.6 billion, an increase of 31%

over the mid 1996 population of 5.8 billlion approximately 98% of

the projected population growth over this period will take place in

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developing countries. It has also been estimated that between the

years 1995 and 2020 the developing world’s urban population will

double reaching 3.4 billion. This overall increase in population and

in the urban population in particular, poses great challenges to food

systems.

Therefore to get the global food crisis under control will

require a significant amount of strategic actions on the part of not

just the Nigerian government but government around the world and

many large conglomerates that controls access to food.

However, intensification of agriculture and animal husbandry;

more efficient food handling processing and distribution systems;

introduction of newer technologies including appropriate application

of biotechnology will all have to be explooted to increase food

availability to meet the need of growing populations.

It should be borne in mind that some of this practices an

technologies may also pose potential problems of food safety and

nutritional quality and call for special attention in order to ensure

protection.

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ABSTRACT

This study was aimed at investigating the impact of the

current food crisis on the Nigerian economy from 1980 to 2006.

The Econometric tool of correlation analysis was adopted for the

purpose of analyzing the data collected. From the analysis however

a positive Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient of 0.9, 0.9 and

1.0 was gotten for the three hypothesis tested respectively. The

research revealed that there is a strong positive relationship

between increase in population, and upsurge in food prices. Again,

it was revealed that there is a relationship between food crisis and

increase in social vices. Also the study showed that there is a

positive relationship between the global financial crisis and food

crisis.

The researcher however recommended that intensification of

agriculture and animal husbandry; more efficient food handling

processing and distribution systems; introduction of new

technologies including appropriate application in biotechnology will

all have to be exploited to increase food availability to meet the

need of the growing population.

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CERTIFICATION

I certify that this research work was carried out by FASUGBA

OLADIPUPO MOBOLAJI in the Department of Economics, Tai

Solarin University of Education, Ijagun, Ijebu-Ode, under my

supervision.

___________________

__________________

MR AGBATOGUN K.K DATE

PROJECT SUPERVISOR

DEDICATION

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This project is dedicated to the Almighty God, the giver of life

and the sustainer of all mankind. Also to the memories of my Late

Father, Elder Emmanuel Akinniyi Fasugba who slept just after this

research work began.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I have learnt in life, that the greatest asset anyone can

posses is the ability to give honest and sincere appreciation. I have

grown up to know that whosoever exhibits the traits of an ingrate, is

incapable of any noble sentiment, because even the lower animals

knows how to express gratitude to their benefactor.

It is on this note that I appreciate the Almighty God, the

Lover of my soul for sparing my life thought my course of study. It

is indeed all bout God.

I wish to place on record the support given to me by my God

given project supervisor, Mr. Agbatogun K.K. You are like a brother

to me, for your constructive criticism, correction and guidance

throughout the project work, I say God bless you.

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I also want to appreciate my mentor, the Region 8 Pastor of

THE GOSPEL FAITH MISSION INTERNATIONAL, Pastor Stephen

Oluwambe Shoretire for your fatherly support in all ramifications.

God bless you.

My gratitude goes to Deacon Seyi Oladapo for always being

there. Your efforts over me are duly noted, God will reward you.

To my friend in need Akinshola Damilola, you are God sent

and I pray that the Almighty God will be your help. I want to

appreciate Gofamint Salvation army members for all their support,

Aunty Taye and Aunty Ayo (Shammah Mammas), Mamma Abe,

Daddy Tobi, Deacon Ajayi, Deacon Ola Familusi, Mr and Mrs

Adekanmbi, Pastor Samule Adusi, Bro Samson Gabriel and those I

cannot I say God bless you.

Now to my family, my God given family, starting from my

mother Mrs Elizabeth Omolayo Fasugba you are one in a million.

God bless you and give you long life to reap the fruits of your

labours. To my brothers and sisters, Brother Moses Fasugba,

Pastor Joshua Fasugba, Sister Deborah (nee fasugba), brother

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Elijah Fasugba and Sister Wunmi Fasugba. May God bless you all

for your efforts over me. We shall all make it together.

REFERENCES

- Kelyin Pina “Mud Cookie Economics in Haiti, Haiti action

network Feb 10, 2008.

- Tony Kaaron “How Hunger could topple regimes” Time, April

11, 2008.

The new face of hunger. The economist 19, 2008.

Mark Lyna “How the Rich starved the world” New Statesman April

17, 2008.

Dale Allen Pfeiffer, Eating fossil fuels, New society publishers

Gabriola Islan bc 2006

Oxfan international briefing paper, April 2005. “Kicking Down the

door”

OELD background Nite Agriculural policy and trade reform

Kjell Harnerk, Deborah Byleson, Lars-Erik Burgegard, prosper

matondi & Atakitte Beyene “African Agriculture and the World bank.

74

Development or impoverishment? Links international journal of

socialist renewal.

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TAI SOLARIN UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATIONH IJAGUN, IJEBU

ODE, OGUN STATE

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES,

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

Dear Respondents

This interview is designed to investigate the impact of the

current food crisis on the Nigerian Economy.

I hereby appeal for your cooperation throughout this

interview. All information from you in this interview will be treated

confidentially.

SECTION A

Instruction: Kindly fill or thick ( ) the appropriate answer to fill the

blank spaces.

Name

Sex

Occupation

Rank/ cadre 6-8 ( ) 9-11( ) 12-14 ( ) none ( )

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Others ( )

Section B

Yes

No

1. There had been ford crisis in Nigeria before.

2. Increase in population is a determinant of food crisis

3. The economic meltdown affected Nigeria

4. Food crisis had triggered crime rates

5. People can steal when they are hungry

6. The prices of food is rising because too many people

demand for it

7. Increase in the price of crude oil is responsible for increase

in prices of food

8. Food is only expensive in Nigeria

9. I -still eat three course meal dearly

10. Though food is relatively expensive now but not with

the same quality as before

11. My savings is affected because of the exorbitant

amount I pay as food

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12. Population size should be curtailed

13. We are happier than our forefathers

78