global flows in a digital age: how trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy
Post on 21-Oct-2014
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One in three goods crosses national borders, and more than one-third of financial investments are international transactions. In the next decade, global flows could triple, powered by rising prosperity and participation in the emerging world and by the spread of the Internet and digital technologies. In a new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, "Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy," scenarios show that global flows could reach $54 trillion to $85 trillion by 2025. Click to learn more, including a slideshow tracking the expanding network, a podcast with MGI authors, and a download of the full report. http://bit.ly/GlobalFlowsTRANSCRIPT
The expanding network of global flows
Given the rising prosperity in emerging markets and the increasing impact of digital technologies, a growing share of the world’s economic activity involves cross-border flows.
0.02–0.05
0.05–0.10
0.10–0.25
0.25–0.50
0.50–1.00
>1.00
% of global GDPFlow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of finance
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
100% = $1.8 trillion
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
Source: UN Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of goods in 1980
0.02–0.05
0.05–0.10
0.10–0.25
0.25–0.50
0.50–1.00
>1.00
% of global GDP
100% = $17.2 trillion
Flow of goods in 2011
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Source: UN Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of finance
10x increase since 1980
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
0.02–0.05
0.05–0.10
0.10–0.25
0.25–0.50
0.50–1.00
>1.00
% of global GDP
100% = $1.5 trillion1
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
Flow of services in 2001
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
1 Estimated based on 55% coverage with a bilateral data set.
Source: UN Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of finance
1 Estimated based on 61% coverage with a bilateral data set.
Source: UN Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
0.02–0.05
0.05–0.10
0.10–0.25
0.25–0.50
0.50–1.00
>1.00
% of global GDP
100% = $4.1 trillion1
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
Flow of services in 2011
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Flow of finance
3x increase since 2001
0.02–0.05
0.05–0.10
0.10–0.25
0.25–0.50
0.50–1.00
>1.00
% of global GDP
100% = $2.5 trillion
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
Source: UN Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of finance in 2002
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Flow of finance
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
0.02–0.05
0.05–0.10
0.10–0.25
0.25–0.50
0.50–1.00
>1.00
% of global GDP
100% = $3.9 trillion
Flow of finance in 2012
Source: UN Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Flow of finance
1.5x increase since 2002
<1
1–5
5–10
10–50
>50
Millions of foreign travelers
Total = 833 million
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
Total international travelers
Flow of people in 2002
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Source: TeleGeography; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of finance
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
<1
1–5
5–10
10–50
>50
Millions of foreign travelers
Total = 1,100 million
Total international travelers
Flow of people in 2010
Source: TeleGeography; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Flow of finance
1.3x increase since 2002
<50,000
50,000–100,000
100,000–500,000
500,000–1 million
1–5 million
>5 million
Bandwidth, Megabits per second (Mbps)
Total = 29 million Mbps
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America
Source: TeleGeography; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of data and communication in 2008
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Total cross-border bandwidth
Flow of finance
Total cross-border bandwidth
<50,000
50,000–100,000
100,000–500,000
500,000–1 million
1–5 million
>5 million
Bandwidth, Megabits per second (Mbps)
Total = 201 million Mbps
Flow of data and communication in 2013
Source: TeleGeography; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Flow of goods
Flow of services
Flow of people
Flow of data and communication
Flow of finance
7x increase since 2008
United Statesand Canada
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Africa andMiddle East
Australasia
Chinaregion
Other Asia Northeast Asia
WesternEurope
Latin America