trends for the world economy in 2012 and investment flows into bric countries
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Trends for the world economy in 2012 and investment flows into BRIC countries. 1. The World Economy 2012 : New Cycle Means New Risks?. 1. The World Economy 2012 : New Cycle Means New Risks?. Developed economies for a year stand on the brink of new economic cycle - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia1
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Trends for the world economy in 2012 and investment flows into
BRIC countries
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia2
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1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means
New Risks?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia3
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1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
Developed economies for a year stand on the brink of new economic cycle
But the progress falters under the burden of government and financial sector problems, provoking risk aversion for investors
Most likely, the cycle will proceed as new, and these problems will stay unresolved, bound to turn up later
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia4
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While unsure, the recovery in developed countries is slowly proceeding, the US heading headfirst and both Japan and EA lagging
1.1. Industrial production, 01/01/2000=100
1.2. Unemployment rate, %
Source: IMF International financial statistics Source: IMF International financial statistics
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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US EA Japan
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia5
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1.6. Total money base of largest developed countries, US$ tn
Source: IMF
The money central banks issued most likely would stay even as the credit multiplier increases
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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US EA Japan growth rate % (right axis)
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia6
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So far, the multiplier stays very low, though some increase in US is visible
1.3. EA MB and M3 growth rates, % yoy 1.4. MB and M2 growth rates, % yoy
Source: ECB
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М3 зоны евро Денежная база зоны евро
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Source: Fed
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia7
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Corporate debt ratios for both US and EA are at 10-15-year lows
Trade balance stabilization and strong personal consumption in the US in 2011 suggest grounds for new growth cycle
Rates of growth in China won’t skyrocket as the government finishes deflating bubble, there are problems with shifting to consumption-based growth, but “low” still means 8+% for China (and not to forget expected US growth)
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia8
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1.6. EBITDA for main US industries, 2000 prices, 31/03/00=100
Source: US Census Bureau
EBITDA for US has recovered, for EA lags behind but not totally subdued
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Durable goods production Manufacturing Mining (right axis)
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia9
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1.7. US corporate debt, 2000 prices, 31/03/00=100
Source : US Census Bureau
…as the debt levels grow steadily…
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Durable goods production Manufacturing Mining (right axis)
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia10
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1.8. Debt to EBITDA, main US industries
Source : US Census Bureau
Debt/EBITDA stays at 2000 lows.
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia11
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1.10. Profit/Sales in US industries
Source : US Census Bureau
While profitability is already at expansion phase levels….
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia12
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1.9. US household debt service ratios, % of income
Source: Fed
…household DSR stays pretty low
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia13
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1.10. Delinquent credit in US banks, % of assets
And the wall of delinquencies is basically overcome
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total business loans consumer loans loans secured by real estate
Source: Fed
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia14
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1.11. Loan to deposit ratio
Source: Fed, ECB
At the same time, credit activity at US and EA banks is clearly subdued
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia15
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1.12. Credit portfolio as a share of total assets
Liquid assets are preferred to credits as risk aversion is strong
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
Source: Fed, ECB
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Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia16
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1.13. Capacity utilization vs unemployment, %
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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US Capacity utilizationEuro area capacity utilization survey (quarterly, intrapolated)US Unemployment SA inverted, right axisEU-27 unemployment inverted, right axis
Source: Fed, ECB
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia17
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1.14. Baltic Dry and Harpex indices
While dry bulk costs were untouched by the slowdown of 2011, container costs were sharply down
1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
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Baltic Dry HARPEX (container costs, right axis)
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia18
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1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks? 1. The World Economy 2012: New Cycle Means New Risks?
GDP yoyGDP yoy, % , % UNUN IMFIMF WBWB 20112011
World (PPP)World (PPP) 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.8
USUS 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.7
EAEA 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 1.6
JapanJapan 2.0 1.7 1.9 -0.9
ChinaChina 8.7 8.2 8.4 9.2
IndiaIndia 7.7 7.0 6.5 7.5
BrazilBrazil 2.7 3.0 3.4 2.9
RussiaRussia 3.9 3.3 3.5 4.1
Oil, $/bOil, $/b 100.0 99.1 98.2 104.2
1.15. Main economic forecasts for 2012
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia19
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2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia20
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Three arguments for less saving in the long-term: world population ageing, esp. in developed countries,
increases retired-to-workers ratio; losses the pension savings took after the financial crisis
of 2008 and probable sovereign debt crises of 2008-2011 forgone investment gains, e.g. negative real rates as a
consequence of ZIRP+QE in reserve currencies
One argument for less money going to emerging markets: developed world needs more money to refinance
growing public debt and restart new credit cycle
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia21
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Мир
2.1. Retired-to-working ratio, world, %
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
World population ageing, esp. in developed countries, increases retired-to-workers ratio
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia22
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2.2. Global liquid financial asset structure, %
2006 2010
$ tn % $ tn %
Equity market cap 55 30.7 54 25.6
Sovereign debt 28 15.6 41 19.4
Financial institutions debt 35 19.6 42 19.9
Nonfinancial institutions debt 7 3.9 10 4.7
Securitised credit 14 7.8 15 7.1
Nonsecuritised credit 40 22.3 49 23.2
Total 179 100.0 211 100.0
Source: MGI.
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Losses the pension savings took after the financial crisis of 2008 and probable sovereign debt crises of 2008-2011
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia23
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“What incentive does a US bank have to extend maturity to a two- or three-year term when Treasury rates at that level of the curve are below the 25 basis points available to them overnight from the Fed?
What incentive does PIMCO or banks have to buy five-year Treasuries at 75bp when the maximum upside capital gain is 2 per cent of par and the downside substantially more?”
- Bill Gross, PIMCO
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia24
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As more and more sovereign debt in developed countries needs refinancing, emerging markets will experience outflow of capital sourced in developed markets, i.e. “home bias” for the debt will strengthen
This means governments should concentrate on stimulating the potential of internal savings rather than seeking overseas financing, especially financing for the emerging markets
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia25
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2.3. Financing needs of developed countries in 2012,
$ bn
2.4. Financing needs of developed countries in 2012,
% GDP
Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor 2011
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601
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Ирландия
Греция
Португалия
Испания
Великобритания
Германия
Италия
Франция
Япония*
США*
*10 млрд. долл
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Ирландия
Греция
Португалия
Испания
Великобритания
Германия
Италия
Франция
Япония*
США*
*10 млрд. долл
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia26
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2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Gross national savingGross national savingGross fixed capital Gross fixed capital
formationformation
Brazil 19.3 18.1
Russia 28.0 20.6
India 34.2 31.7
China 52.0 41.9
Compare to: EU 21.3 20.4
2.5. Saving and investment avg. 2006-2010, % GDP
Not all BRIC countries have internal resources for investment, thus more investment in infrastructure may mean less investment elsewhere
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia27
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Can FDI help? Various studies (based on Danning, Akamatsu etc.) suggest FDI are the source of quality governance and tech transfer, not so much a financing tool
In 2006-2010, average yearly FDI inflow into BRIC countries was less than 3% GDP or less than 10% of investment
Two differing approaches to attracting the funds to long-term investment (including infrastructure) are widespread (e.g. Walsh, Park and Yu 2011), so-called centralized and decentralized
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia28
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Centralized is either government investment or its advanced version, directed loan-based: used in China with public banks+PBC, in Brazil with
BNDES (esp.after PAC)+pensions
Centralized form reqs: healthy budget (little evidence of investment in
infrastructure to create short-term budget gains concentrated banking system
+ creating off-budget development institutions not tied by system-wide banking regulations
some insulation from external shocks as banking system becomes somewhat distorted and vulnerable as it takes on infrastructure risk
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia29
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Decentralized is based on a mature market for long-term debt and equity instruments Increasingly used in China (highway SPV), much less for
Brazil, in the debt part – basic for Chile and Korea
Decentralized long-term financing reqs: Large long-term internal funds (i.e. fully-funded pension
scheme or the like) Institutional environment for long-term open market financing (i.e. market-makers + risk management regulatory practices)
Institutional environment for long-term open market financing (i.e. market-makers + risk management regulatory practices)
Framework for private involvement (PPP, concessions etc.)
2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?2. Global savings: from “glut” to deficit?
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia30
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3. The case of Russia – a path to decentralized
financing model
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia31
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Relatively low (20+% GDP) gross fixed capital formation rate for an emerging economy
Significant difference between gross savings and investment
Banking system has very small share of long-term deposits, almost all are callable
Bond market has plenty of long-term bonds, but most long-term have embedded call after 2 years, making them lower-medium-term instead
3. The case of Russia3. The case of Russia
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia32
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Currently, the model is highly centralized: main infrastructure investment is budget-sourced development institution (VEB) is the primary non-
budget financing source almost no long-term debt market most pension savings are locked into low-yield
government bonds Banking system is deconcentrated (CR4=45 but
CR20=65 etc.) and syndication is underdeveloped rates are unstable due to exchange-rate targeting
policy
3. The case of Russia3. The case of Russia
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia33
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Thus, the way to decentralized system is unlocking pension savings and the funds dispersed inside banking system
The market for long-term lending needs to be created: VEB (DI) should co-finance market-makers both for
the long-term bond market and standardised syndicated loan market
The industry standards (lex mercatoria) need to be developed:
Self-regulating organizations (like LMA/ LSTA
APLMA), debt covenants, law issues – starting with the market makers
3. The case of Russia3. The case of Russia
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia34
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Once there is liquidity in long-term bond and credit syndication secondary markets (e.g. via credit mutuals) – money managers (including VEB) may be allowed to use pension savings to ramp up the markets for syndication and long-term bonds
The experience is based on case studies of financial market developments by EBRD (in CEE), KfW (in Germany), BNDES (in Brazil), NAFIN (in Mexico)
We estimate doubling of credit syndication market to $25 bn a year in 3 years, at the cost of $15 bn (0.2% GDP a year) in credits, LT bond stimulus is comparable
3. The case of Russia3. The case of Russia
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia35
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Conclusions
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia36
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The economy in 2012 looks to the upside and ZIRP is on the side of long-term international investment in emerging markets
However, the long-term prospects are gloomy: the global savings glut could turn into deficit developed markets will need more long-term
funds to fix sovereign debt problems than today, ergo home bias for the debt markets
Thus, perspectives of international capital going into the infrastructure are not impressive
ConclusionsConclusions
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia37
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However important, FDI flows and international financing are insufficient to finance long-term investment in developing countries
Thus, developing countries should finance long-term development, including infrastructure, out of internal sources
The potential for increase in investment is present almost in all BRIC countries
ConclusionsConclusions
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia38
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Most investment in long-term investment projects in BRIC is centralized via development institutions, government funds or pet banking systems
pension savings are utilized in China and Brazil, much less in India and Russia
elements of decentralized model are present in all BRIC countries, but all of them lack a complete set of elements
the decentralized model is an infrastructure in itself, and thus is a long-term prospect to build
ConclusionsConclusions
Москва 2007
Macroeconomic background for S&T forecastMacroeconomic background for S&T forecast
International workshopInternational workshop““Long-term S&T forecastLong-term S&T forecast””
IRU-HSEIRU-HSE, 2011, 2011
ЦМАКП
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1. 1. WhyWhy « «economy-centriceconomy-centric»?»?General government expenditures*
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6.05.0 5.3
4.3 4.2 4.15.0 4.7 4.7
4.2 4.7 4.8 5.1
-7.8
-3.9
6.8
27.9
21.7
25.6
23.222.3 22.2
25.024.6
28.1
23.9
25.9 26.1 26.2 25.9 26.1 26.125.5 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.2
22.7 22.4 22.2 21.9
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* Non-interest gen.gov-t expenditures minus pension and capital expenditures of the budget
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia41
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1.3. The need for clear priorities
Расходы на R&D expenditures 2009 (PPP USD bn)
R&D workforce 2009(‘000 work years)
R&D expenditure per researcher 2009 (‘000 PPP USD)
* - 2008 R&D expenditure data.
1. 1. WhyWhy « «economy-centriceconomy-centric»?»?
Upfront “pro rata” R&D financing raise as existing R&D institutions’ research profiles are conserved would only deepen dispersion of funding and unlikely to achieve any “quantum leaps”In research quality.
Upfront “pro rata” R&D financing raise as existing R&D institutions’ research profiles are conserved would only deepen dispersion of funding and unlikely to achieve any “quantum leaps”In research quality.
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China
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Japa
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Korea
Fran
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Sweden
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Germ
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*
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China*
Russia
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9
Russia
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Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia42
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Sources of R&D funding 2009 (%)
1. 1. WhyWhy « «economy-centriceconomy-centric»?»?
We do not expect significant budget R&D expenditure raises. Therefore, new funding can only come from private sector. This implies a change in existing research objectives (and research profiles) towards private demand both for applied and, in part,for fundamental science.
We do not expect significant budget R&D expenditure raises. Therefore, new funding can only come from private sector. This implies a change in existing research objectives (and research profiles) towards private demand both for applied and, in part,for fundamental science.
0%
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100%
Russia
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0
Russia
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9 Italy
USA
Japa
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Germ
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Fran
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Great
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China
Korea
Finla
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Sweden
ForeignOther internal sourcesPrivate corporations sectorGovernment
Economic impact (growth of hi-tech exports) of Russian R&D expenditures is insufficient relative to other countries
Russian Federation
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Australia
Austria
United Kingdom
Hungary
Fmr Fed. Rep. of Germany
Greece
DenmarkIreland
Spain
ItalyCanada
Korea
MexicoNetherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slov akia
USA
Turkey
Finland
France
Czech repuиlic
Switzerland
Sweden
Japan
Latv ia
Lithuania
RomaniaSlov enia
Estonia
Argentina
Brazil
India
China
SAR
10
100
1000
10000
100000
10000001
0
10
0
10
00
10
00
0
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1. 1. WhyWhy « «economy-centriceconomy-centric»?»?
ЦМАКП
4444
Developing methodology stage 1 (2011)
Developing methodology stage 1 (2011)
Estimate model inputs stage 2 (2011)
Estimate model inputs stage 2 (2011)
Tentative forecastStage 3 (2012)
Tentative forecastStage 3 (2012)
Long-term industry development potential forecasts
Stage 4 (2012)
Long-term industry development potential forecasts
Stage 4 (2012)
«Macro-driven» S&T and innovation forecast
Stage 5 (2013)
«Macro-driven» S&T and innovation forecast
Stage 5 (2013)
Final stage macroeconomic forecastStage 6 (2013)
Final stage macroeconomic forecastStage 6 (2013)
Industry forecasts
Industry forecasts S&T forecasts
S&T forecasts
Tentative industry forecastsTentative industry forecasts
Final stage industry forecastsFinal stage industry forecasts
Updated S&T
forecasts
Updated S&T
forecasts
World economic policies
forecasts
World economic policies
forecasts
Long-term cycle S&T forecasts
Long-term cycle S&T forecasts
World economy and geopolitical forecasts
World economy and geopolitical forecasts
CMASF Partners
2. 2. Our research planOur research plan
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia45
45
Payroll (PPP USD.)
3815
2869
1904
1445
1162925 890
3042
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
pay per single worker"EU-7", 2008 г.
"EU-7": Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden
3. 3. Our goalsOur goals: : solutions to labour productivity problemsolutions to labour productivity problem
100
119
145
190
235
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Labour productivity (2011 = 100, “first-best” scenario)
3. 3. Our goalsOur goals: : solutions to energy efficiency problemsolutions to energy efficiency problem
91
83
71
100
12.7
14.8
16.9
7.3
10.2
10.9
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
энергоемкость (максимальный)electricity prices for all consumers
wholesale electricity price for industry, Germany 2007
Electricity cost (cent/kWh) and mtoe-per-dollar-of-GDP energy intensity index (2011=100)
3. 3. Our goalsOur goals: : search for new sources of economic growthsearch for new sources of economic growth
GDP growth components (average growth rates, %, “baseline no-policy” scenario)
5.66.7
5.2
-3.7
1.52.4 2.7 3.0
-0.5 0.01.2 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
1.4 0.6 0.9
0.00.1
0.60.9
1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
3.2
3.9
2.2
-3.5
0.8
1.2
1.41.6 1.7 2.0
-4.9
0.9
1.51.5
1.82.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7
2.6
2.1
0.2
-1.5
3.1
0.9 0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.01.0 1.0
0.8 0.70.5
0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
-4.6-5.6
-3.3
6.7
-5.2-6.3
-2.5-1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.6
5.5
1.0
-0.9 -1.2-2.6 -2.7 -2.2
-1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4
0.4
0.5
0.10.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
3.02.42.5
1.32.30.9
2.0
1.0 1.21.1
0.8
0.5
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Private Consumption Government Consumption Investment Export Import Inventories+Errors GDP
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow, Russia48
48
Exports commodity structure (%)
3. 3. Our goals: export potentialOur goals: export potential
Export growth potential, forecasts by industry (2030/2011, times)
62 60 61 60 59 59 58 57 56 55 53 52 51 50 50 48 47 46 45 44
5 6 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 1117 17 18 18 19
33 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 37
62 4961
16151413131217
7
3532
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Oil, gas, petroleum products Machinery&equipment Other goods
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Производство машин и оборудования
Производство транспортных средств и оборудования
Производство электро- и оптического оборудования
Сельское хозяйство, охота и лесное хозяйство
Рыболовство и рыбоводство
Производство пищевых продуктов
Производство изделий из кожи, обуви
Текстильное и швейное производство
Деревообработка
Производство резиновых и пластмассовых изделий
Химическое производство
Производство стройматериалов
Металлургическое производство и металлоизделий
Целлюлозно-бумажное производство, полиграфия
Добыча нетопливно-энергетических полезных ископаемых
Добыча топливно-энергетических полезных ископаемых
Производство нефтепродуктов и ядерных материалов
Прочие производства
3. Что мы хотим получить: импортозамещение3. Что мы хотим получить: импортозамещение
Import elasticity to domestic demand components
1.1
0.7 0.8
0.5 0.50.4
0.70.6 0.6
0.70.70.60.9
1.0
1.7
4.3
1.8
3.2
1.6
1.0
1.0
1.1
8.2
0.2
3.1
4.0
2.5
0.4
3.2
0.7
0.80.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Machinery imports to investment Consumer imports to private consumption