global financial crisis and its consequences for polish housing market
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Global Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Polish Housing Market. M.Sc. Konrad Zelazowski Department of Investment and Real Estate University of Lodz Lodz, Poland email: [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Global Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Polish
Housing Market
M.Sc. Konrad ZelazowskiDepartment of Investment and Real Estate
University of LodzLodz, Poland
email: [email protected]
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The aim of the article is to investigate
possible consequences of recent financial
crisis for Polish real estate market
development. Is it a temporary slowdown
or a long term collapse?
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Number of flats per 1,000 inhabitants in EU Member States
Source: data provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and EMF Hypostat 2006, A review of Europe’sMortgage and Housing Markets, European Mortgage Federation, November 2007
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Supply of flats in the Polish real estate market
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
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State budget expenditures on the housing sector
Source: E. Kucharska-Stasiak Rynek nieruchomości a sektor bankowy, Fundacja na Rzecz Kredytu Hipotecznego 2008, p. 114.
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Mortgage debt as percentage of GDP in European countries
Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Housing market in Poland in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 18.
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Interest rate levels
Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Housing market in Poland in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 32.
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Increase in mortgage debt in Poland
Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Housing market in Poland in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 32.
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Increase in housing real estate prices
Source: redNet Consulting
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Number and average amount of housing loans granted quarterly between 2003 and 2007
Source: E. Kucharska-Stasiak Rynek nieruchomości a sektor bankowy (Real Estate Market and the Bank Sector), Fundacja na Rzecz Kredytu Hipotecznego 2008, p. 128.
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Dynamics of changes in real estate prices and construction costs for 1 sq. m.
Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w III kwartale 2008r.(Polish Housing Market in Q3 2008), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2008, p. 25.
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The number of square meters of residential property purchasable for an average gross salary
Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w III kwartale 2008r.(Polish Housing Market in Q3 2008), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2008.
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Value of P/R ratio for selected local markets
Source: Jacek Łaszek, Ryzyko wystąpienia bąbli na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych, NBP, Warsaw, June 5, 2008, conference presentation.
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Share of speculative demand in total demand for housing real estate (Warsaw market)
Source: redNet Consulting
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Quarterly fluctuations in the number of new mortgage loans
Source: Open Finance report, 2009.
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Housing price changes in major Polish cities
Source: L. Nykiel, Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w I kwartale 2009r.(Polish Housing Market in Q1 2009), Departament Bankowości hipotecznej PKO BP, 2009, p. 41.
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The main factors determining future changes in real estate prices in Poland will include the
following:
• availability of mortgages,• the macroeconomic situation,
• changes in salaries and the unemployment rate,• availability of external financing sources (loans)
for developers and construction companies.
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THANK YOU