Global Emissions InitiAtive 17 th GEIA Conference Summary Leonor Tarrasn, Greg Frost and Paulette Middelton and the GEIA SC Committee 17 th GEIA Conference Influence of Urbanisation on emissions worldwide 167 participants from all continents 4 thematic sessions: Megacities Inventories and Trends Top-Down Emissions Analyses, Impacts and Scenarios 2 demonstrations: ECCAD and CEDS 1 Town Hall discussion on science policy interactions School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China November 2015 17 th GEIA Conference Questions How is emission work for Megacities different from emission work in other Urban areas? What are the main challenges of emission compilation in Megacities? How can emission information best support urban planning and development? Megacities session (I) 17 th GEIA Conference Significant increase of emission data compiled worldwide Large differences between Megacities: balance between sectors vary from brick kiln industry in Dhaka, industrial sources in Chinese Megacities and traffic emissions in European cities. focus on main compunds also varies: US focus on more VOC because of O3 as driver while less focus on VOC elsewhere Several attempts to constrain emissions with top-down estimates but this will not help in urban areas where activity data and EF need to be constrained with direct measurements Integration of GHG and AP emission policies still limited Megacities session (I) Questions and answers How is emission work for Megacities different from emission work in other Urban areas? What are the main challenges of emission compilation in Megacities? 17 th GEIA Conference Questions and answers How can emission information best support urban planning and development? Governance cooperation efforts in Mexico Example of potential success story in Nepal Relevance of vehicle maintance to emission values Emerging areas of study California studies introduce need for further effort with consumer products Bagasse used as biofuel VOC speciation needs extended studies in different areas Megacities session (III) Success stories for Urban WG 17 th GEIA Conference Inventories and Trends 17 th GEIA Conference Inventories and Trends 17 th GEIA Conference Top-down Emissions Analyses 17 th GEIA Conference Top-down Emissions Analyses Answers to Q1: which key uncertainties to improve use top-down to get accuracy estimate, give confidence in bottom-up flag if sources are missing completely Sectorial analyses Driving forces Answers to Q2: scale of sat. info for NO2 currently 25 km resolution with OMI, in the future 5k with TROPOMI use VIIRS nightlight to infer resolution of ~400m use bottom-up to distribute within satellite resolution grid cells Answers to Q3: few parameters visible to satellite More comprehensively equipped aircraft campaigns may provide the link to species that are not observed by satellite. Answers to Q4: errors in top-down use top-down trends and patterns to avoid absolute errors high-resolution CTMs needed to represent chemistry adequately for VOCs, representativity brings the dominant error singular events like Fukushima can be used to assess atmospheric model errors 17 th GEIA Conference Impacts and Scenarios Regions: Mainly China, other Asian countries & Africa Investigate regional differences within/between countries for a range of pollutants (VOC, O3, PM2.5) Emission growth impacts from US/Europe to China and vice versa Impact: climate, health, pollution It important to see the larger picture and avoid negative impact i.e. health and climate dual impact in Africa Switching from diesel/petrol to electric mobile combustions reduced urban emissions but increased rural power plant SO2 emissions Multispecies and multisector control (need to include ALL PM2.5 species/ chemical composition of the fuels (coal)/ bVOC speciation) Economic impact of air pollution on health in China 17 th GEIA Conference Impacts and Scenarios Scenarios: Mitigation and Future How can we persuade the consumer to change their habits? Access to wood stops using less polluting stoves Detailed sector behaviour knowledge How can we address the pollution burden of the producer? Shift to consumer? GEIA GEIA to push for better regional data for global perspective 17 th GEIA Conference Town Hall discussion on Science and Policy Main issues (I) World-wide a)Biomass burning emissions specially including waste in the developing world I.Total reactive carbon speciated (VOC, SVOC, ELVOC) II.Activity data: use of biofuel and biomass III.Biomass burning efficiency is a large source of uncertainties b)International transportation (ocean ships, aircraft). Need for international action adopted worldwide c)NH3 is globally important and linked to increased fertilizer use, causes aerosol formation & human health problems. I.Hotspots in i.e. India/China need to be explored II.Global network of NH3 data are needed, there is a current lack of organized studies hence inability to validate i.e. NH3 satellite data. d)GHG from agriculture through landuse change and agronomic management thereafter. I.Impact of O3 on crop yields needs to be recorded for all regions. II.Activity data to calculate emissions for emerging fast changing economies are needed. 17 th GEIA Conference Town Hall discussion on Science and Policy Main issues (II) Europe and North America a)Fugitive emissions, with larger uncertainties in activity data b)GHG: Even for countries with many data and lots of research, such as California, uncertainties in emission inventories are high. Constrain bottom up with top down could help to solve this problem c)Mobile and stationary combustion/solvents: large uncertainties, residential solvent use not really quantified, Fuel shift from coal to gas needs to be quantified, NOx inventory needs to be improved to quantify O3 better. Arctic a)Gas and oil extraction - Flaring emissions b)Shipping emissions 17 th GEIA Conference Town Hall discussion on Science and Policy Main issues (III) Asia, South America and Africa a)General need for better local emission understanding in particular from following sectors Industrial emissions (steel, cement, petroleum, chemical) Mobile sources (exhaust and non-exhaust, off-road) Residential slid fuel use crop residue burning Power combustion common to all these are inherent uncertainties: I.Activity levels are uncertain, not always reliable and i difficult to obtain II.Local emission factors are lacking III.Speciation profiles for VOC missing a)Future projections of point sources (energy production) and area sources (biogenic and wildfire) I.Uncertainty in predicting future decisions that will drive these changes 17 th GEIA Conference Recommendations for GEIA GEIA should continue promoting open access to all emission data and information Provide guidance on best practices for both emissions and emission reductions Create an emission factor database around the world - common formats, with information on technology, measurement methods, data quality and evaluation of uncertainties the database should not be only a compilation of data, should make us wiser! Provide guidance on how to develop a system to estimate local emission factors Create a forum to share experiences on emission control for developing countries BRIC countries or similar regions Develop online listing of regulatory/policy success stories as a way of illustrating what seems to be working in the way of mitigation, including comments on why Improve understanding of top-down vs bottom-up differences by developing a working group and/or forums Improve information on activity data particularly for areas like Africa and some part of Asia and western Europe where information on driving factors is less well known Town Hall discussion on Science and Policy 17 th GEIA Conference Should GEIA be more proactive regarding emission reduction? There were split views on this topic On the one hand, there is a need for exchange of experiences on successful technologies and actions used to reduce emission success stories on mitigation options should be exchanged, think-tanks Useful compilation of success stories to increase the visibility On the other hand, GEIA is not a policy expert group focus should be on emission and emission understanding not to lose scientific credibility GEIA should be aware of what others are doing this and support the community that makes these recommendations Direct involvement in the policy process is not advised. Instead, interact indirectly by making science easier to understand for those that implement policy or mediators such as WMO, IPCC. Town Hall discussion on Science and Policy Looking forward All presentations and contact information available, with your approval, atMeeting report IGAC Newsletter - available also at our website GEIA working groups: further cooperation possibilities for the community Next GEIA Conference in 2017 Thank you !