Global cable & satellite: 2016 outlook

Geetha Ranganathan, Paul Sweeney, Joshua Yatskowitz and Erhan GursesBloomberg Intelligence analysts

North American cable & satellite 2016 outlook

M&A, wireless, Apple’s Web TV are key cable issues

M&A continues to be a key theme across the U.S. pay-TV market. Record deal-making occurred in 2015, with Charter’s announced acquisition of Time Warner Cable and Bright House, and the entry of European operator Altice into the U.S. Altice is taking a pause to integrate recently purchased systems but may return for more M&A in 2016.

Cable operators may make a foray into wireless for a potential quad-play offering as they build out Wi-Fi hotspots. Apple may intensify competition with a launch of its live TV service.

Cable charts comeback; Faces AT&T, Sling TV, Apple

Cable operators including Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Charter are showing improved video metrics, partly driven by aggressive promotions and a focus on customer retention. The companies have benefited from AT&T being distracted with its DirecTV deal. However, cable operators may face pressure in 2016 as AT&T integrates its lower-cost DirecTV platform.

Apple’s potential launch of its live online TV service, which was delayed from 2015, and a growing popularity of Dish’s Sling TV may also intensify competition.

More M&A likely from Altice; Charter-TWC await nod

While Altice plans to keep expanding its U.S. cable business, it has slowed down its deal-making to integrate systems. Altice bought Cablevision for $17.7 billion after acquiring a 70% stake in Suddenlink, making it the fourth-largest cable operator (3.7 million subscribers).

Cox, with 4 million subscribers, may entice Altice to return to M&A in 2016. Charter is awaiting regulatory approval on its Time Warner Cable and Bright House deals, which will make it the third-largest operator with 17 million subscribers.

Comcast may chase wireless, quad-play ambition

Comcast may move forward with a hybrid wireless service, using its 12 million Wi-Fi hotspots in combination with Verizon’s mobile network, and potentially sell a quadruple-play service. The company has said that it’s planning trials for a wireless product. While Comcast said it doesn’t need to own a wireless system to make a profit, it may go after T-Mobile.

Liberty Broadband Chairman John Malone said that all cable operators will add wireless for quad-plays, which are common in Europe and have helped reduce churn.

European cable & satellite 2016 outlook

European Pay-TV to preserve resilience amid risks

European pay-TV operators proved their resilience amid rising competition in 2015 as industry video losses were contained and the slowdown in broadband net additions was limited. Conversions to advanced set-top boxes, investment in premium content and expansion of online services will be critical to fend off competition in 2016.

Converged bundled services will gain prevalence, potentially punishing laggards in mobile. Cable operators will need to invest in broadband speeds to maintain their lead over telecoms.

European Pay-TV consensus preserves status quo

Consensus estimates for European pay-TV operators call for low- to mid-single-digit growth with stable margins and capital spending in 2016, suggesting a preserved cash flow profile for operators. Telecom operators’ focus on converged bundle offers will continue to pressure revenue, with competition in Germany and the U.K. likely heating up most next year.

Cost-cutting initiatives may be able to offset the competitive pressures on Ebitda margins for Liberty Global and Sky, which are expected to expand margins.

Set-top, online, content to deflect Pay-TV risks

The much-feared substitution of pay-TV subscriptions by online services did not take place in any significant way in Europe during 2015.

Pay-TV operators’ efforts to upgrade set-top boxes with functionality and connectivity and their launch of online services will help limit the risk from over-the-top players. Sky’s continued TV net additions this year also highlight the role of premium content. Substitution risk in Europe may remain modest structurally given low pay-TV penetration and subscription fees.

Convergence to drive M&A, mobile launch for cable

Convergence, or the bundled sale of mobile and fixed-line products, has regained prominence among Europe’s integrated telecoms carriers as they seek to differentiate their offers. This is prompting cable operators to expand into mobile services or engage in M&A.

The EU’s quad-play take-up varies, averaging 4% in 2014. Nordic countries, which have fragmented broadband coverage, have the lowest penetration, while southern Europe leads. Convergence competition looks set to rise most in the U.K. and Germany.

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