global baery electric bus market2016/12/05 · ~202 k in 2015 ~328k in 2025 cagr +4.9% legend: %...
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GlobalBa(eryElectricBusMarket
FrankThorpeUKCountryManagerBYDEuropeB.V.November2016・ London,UK
EnergyCrisis
50 years
The world has 53 years of oil usage left
AirPollu;onPM2.5 mainly from vehicle emissions
AirPollu;onPM2.5 mainly from vehicle emissions
AirPollu;onPM2.5 mainly from vehicle emissions
AirPollu;onPM2.5 mainly from vehicle emissions
HazardsofautomobileexhaustAround65%oftheurbanenvironmentalpolluLon
25%oftheCO2emission70%ofthetoxicgascomesfromautoexhaust
CurrentMainSustainableTransportSystems
Mercedes-BenzCitaroCNG Volvo7900electricHybrid BYDebus-12m
HDBusForecastby2025
LEGEND:Normalfont=2015valuesBOLDfont=predicted2025values
OthersincludeAfrica,Middle-East,RussiaandCIS,Asia(excludingChinaandIndia),andOceania.EuropeincludesWestern,Central,andEasternEurope.
China~79.4k~115.5k
Europe~27.6k~34.9k
N.A.~12.5k~16.2k
S.A.~27.2k~46.1k
OtherMarkets~27.2k~46.1k
India~34.1k~55.2k
HD:10tonandaboveor10mandaboveAllDrivetrainHDbus
Source:Frost&Sullivan
~202kin2015
~328Kin2025
CAGR +4.9%
LEGEND:%denotestherespecLveregion’sforecastshareofelectricbusesoftotalglobalelectricHDbussalesin2025.
OthersincludeAfrica,Middle-East,RussiaandCIS,Asia(excludingChinaandIndia),andOceania.EuropeincludesWestern,Central,andEasternEurope.
China~28k(68.7%)
Europe~3.2k(7.8%)
N.A.~1.6k(4%)
S.A.~2.4k(5.9%)
OtherMarkets~1.7k(4.3%)
India~3.8k(9.4%)
HD:10tonandaboveor10mandaboveFullyElectricBuses
Source:Frost&Sullivan
~5.7Kin2015
~40.7Kin2025
CAGR +21.7%
ElectricHDBusForecastby2025
40.7Kin2025
JapaneseandKoreanmanufacturer
Ba(ery-PoweredElectricTransportSystem
Performance
SpecificEnergy
SpecificPower
Life
Safety
Cost
Performance
SpecificEnergy
SpecificPower
Life
Safety
Cost
Performance
SpecificEnergy
SpecificPower
Life
Safety
Cost
LFP LTO NCM
Performance
Performance
Performance
Over80%
KeyPlayersintheGlobalElectricBusMarket
VariousSource:P&SMarketResearch,etc.
BYD Footprints: 52 cities in EU, 172 cities worldwide
BYDElectricBusandCoachFamilyBYD roadmap will introduce a full spectrum of electrified mini, midi, double-decker and articulated buses and BRT solutions.
8.6m
12m
10.2mdouble-decker 10.8m
18marLculated 12mapronbus
12mcoach
COP21ClimateChangeConference
Global city governments attended the Paris UN/COP21 Climate Change Conference and discussed measures to ban polluting vehicles
ChineseGovernmentSubsidiesforBusesin2016
Ekg(Wh/km·kg)
Standard(10m<Length≤12m)Pureelectricrange(R,km)
6≤R<20 20≤R<50 50≤R<100 100≤R<150 150≤R<250 R≥250
Pureelectricbus
Ekg<0.25 25,850 30,550 35,250 41,125 49,350 58,750
0.25≤Ekg<0.35 23,500 28,200 32,900 37,600 44,650 54,050
0.35≤Ekg<0.5 21,150 25,850 28,200 32,900 39,950 49,350
0.5≤Ekg<0.6 18,800 21,150 23,500 29,375 35,250 42,300
0.6≤Ekg<0.7 14,100 16,450 18,800 23,500 28,200 35,250
Hybridbus / / 23,500 27,025 29,375
GBP ToBusManufacturers
Length≤6m Standard×0.26m Length≤8m Standard×0.58m Length≤10m Standard×0.812m LengthorDoubleDecker Standard×1.2
Ekg Wh/km·kgEkg=E/M• E:EnergyconsumpLonperkm(Wh/km)• M:Weight(kg)
China'sLeadershipinElectrifyingPublicTransport
• Newenergybusestoreach150,000during13thFiveYearPlan(2016-2020)
• Chinatobecomeworld'sLARGESTmarketfornewenergyvehicles
• Newenergyvehiclesubsidiesextendedto2020
• Around20provinces/ci;esissuedlocalsubsidiestopromotenewenergybuses
TrendofChina'sElectrifiedPublicTransport
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Vehicle
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Annualsalesvolumeofelectricbus Annualsalesvolumeofbus ElectrificaLon
Sales Volume of Electric Bus and Electrification in China,2009-2017E
Source:ResearchinChina
SomeEuropeanIncen;vesforElectricBuses
Low emission bus scheme, UK A total of £30.4 million will go towards public transport improvements across the UK, with around £22.7 million to be spent on new buses and some £7.7 million on new infrastructure projects to help drive down emissions.
Paris, France RATP’s goal for 2025 is to build a bus fleet that is approximately 80% electric and 20% biogas, a renewable non-fossil fuel.
Bucharest, Romania Bucharest‘s General Mayor announced that 30 percents of the 500 new buses to be purchased by RATB will be electric.
ZeEUS the Zero Emission Urban Bus System It aims to be the main EU activity to extend the fully-electric solution to the core part of the urban bus network. The project has a total budget of €22.5 million with €13.5 million provided by the European Commission’s Directorate General for Mobility and Transport.
BYDElectricBusesinUK
October,2016ADLandBYDwonelectricbustenderonMerseyside
March,2015BYDwon13pureelectric12mbusestendertoNonnghamCityCouncil
March,20165unitsofBYDpureelectricdoubledeckerbuslaunched
September,2016DeputyMayorofLondonswitchedonEurope’slargestelectricbusfleetinLondon–51units12melectricbuses
BarriersforPromo;ngElectricBuses
• Forregulators• Foroperators
• Forgreenlobby
CharginginfrastructureandgeneraLngcapacity–bothsolubleHigheriniLalcost–TCOislower;rangeanxiety–nolongerapplies
Electriciscleaner,cheaper,moreavailablethanalternaLvesandisemissionsfreeoncitystreets
TheLmeisrightforallofustotakeurgentacLon
tointroduceelectricbuses
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