glass’s monthly commercial vehicle market report€¦ · the light commercial vehicles:...
TRANSCRIPT
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Glass’s Monthly Commercial Vehicle Market ReportJune 2019
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Contents
Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019 2
Foreword 3
New LCV Market
Overview 4
Used LCV Market
Overview 5
Breathing Easy in Birmingham 6
Used Van Hero June 9
Residual Values
Measuring our accuracy 10
And finally… 11
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Foreword: Investing Wisely
Research by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), shows growth in the
UK van parc almost double that of the UK car parc since the turn of the century.
The Light Commercial Vehicles: Delivering for the UK Economy report establishes:
• UK LCV parc almost 4.6 million vans
• 3.26m (96%) are diesel
• 357,325 LCV registrations in 2018
• 900,000 used LCVs sold in 2018
• The number of vans on the road is 59% higher than in 2000
• Cars only 29% higher than in 2000
• 3.4m people use or depend on vans for work
• 2018, average new van CO2 was 166.93g/km, down 10.4% versus 2013
• Ultra-low and zero emission van sales totalled 0.3% of the 2018 new market
Driving the increases is the boom in online shopping and to a lesser extent, an increase in the
number of self-employed and the downsizing of fleets.
Through legislation, manufacturers are under pressure to introduce ultra-low and zero
emission LCVs. Consequently, they are investing heavily in these latest technologies so that
UK van fleets continue to drive the economy in ever-cleaner vehicles.
Many fleets operate growing numbers of converted vehicles benefiting from the latest
emissions technology. At the end of their leases, these vehicles will enter the used market,
sought by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) seeking to improve the emissions of their
fleets. At this time, a three year old ultra-low or zero emission LCV will be more affordable and
readily accepted, whilst continuing to offer benefits to businesses of all sizes.
Businesses need to invest wisely in their fleet whilst future proofing against potential change. It
is not often that British and European politicians from all sides agree on something. There is
an underlying belief in a need to switch to ultra-low emission vehicles. The strategy ambition is
that at least 40% of new van registrations will be ultra-low emission by 2030. This legislation is
driving OEMs to develop electrification at speed.
Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass’s
Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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New LCV market overview –May 2019
Demand for new Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) in May increased 5.4%
versus May 2018, with 29,142 new vehicles registered. Demand for lower
emission vehicles aided by attractive market incentives continues to drive
the demand. May returned increases of 14.0% in the sub 2.0 tonne sector,
10.2% in the 2.0-2.5 tonne sector and 5.3% in the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector.
Offsetting some of these increases was a 1.8% decline in the pickup sector.
After five months of 2019, year to date (YTD) registrations of new LCVs
stand at 156,489. This is a 7.5% increase on the 145,514 registered over
the same period in 2018.
The September introduction of the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle
Test Procedure (WLTP) for LCVs has seen many dealers clearing NEDC
compliant stock in preparation. Many fleets and businesses are taking this
opportunity to replace older vehicles rather than waiting for WLTP
compliant versions later in the year. It is possible, that the introduction of
WLTP could lead to supply constraints and longer lead times through
quarter four as factories around the world ramp up UK production of WLTP
compliant LCVs.
4Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
Ford Transit Custom 23,886 Ford Transit Custom 3,770 Ford Transit Custom 4,237
Ford Transit 11,776 Ford Transit 2,626 Ford Transit 2,686
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 9,492 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 2,138 Volkswagen Transporter 1,791
Volkswagen Transporter 8,394 Peugeot Partner 1,758 Ford Transit Connect 1,425
Peugeot Partner 6,941 Volkswagen Transporter 1,629 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 1,308
YTD 2019 MAY 2019 MAY 2018
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Used LCV market overview
Overview
The LCV wholesale market proved unpredictable in May as two bank holidays and
softer retail activity impacted buyer demand. Well-presented and accurately valued
stock in the best condition resulted in professional buyers bidding strongly. With the
steady increase in stock availability over the last quarter, similarly specified vehicles
not professionally managed into the marketplace, have seen prices come under
downward pressure. Realistic reserves have kept buyers engaged however; tired
and damaged vans are continuing to prove difficult to shift.
Nonetheless, there is a good stock mix available, with something to suit everyone’s
budget. With Euro 5 and older vehicles accounting for over 90% of all stock sold at
auction, most buyers remain happy trading in vehicles that are at least three years
old.
It was clear, however, that buyers were exercising caution, as the average first-time
conversion rate fell to 76%, over 10% lower than May 2018.
Small Vans - 30% of overall sales
In the small van segment, there is still huge demand for the PSA products of
Berlingo and Partner. This small van ticks plenty of boxes when it comes to
reliability, economy and specification. 3-5 year old Caddys have sold well during the
month, as have similar age Combo and Doblo. Older Astravan and Transit Connect
are irregular sightings nowadays, but straight examples continue to perform well.
Medium Vans - 36% of overall sales
The best presented higher specification vans continue to perform strongly. The
Transit Custom is a regular sight at auction, resulting in downward pressure on all
but the nicest examples. Crew vans continue to be top of the popularity stakes,
generating good prices for vendors. Increasing volumes of latest shape Dispatch
and Proace have allowed their prices to firm. Demand for Euro 6 stock has
plateaued of late, with many professional buyers struggling to find customers at this
uncertain economic time.
Large Vans - 18% of overall sales
Used buyers in this sector are demanding higher specification models, especially
metallic colours. The Ford Transit Trend, Citroen Relay Enterprise, Peugeot Boxer
Professional and Renault Master Business + models are most in demand,
especially short and medium wheelbase examples. Similarly, buyers pay premiums
for curtain sider Transit or Sprinter chassis for the right stock. Tidy, low mileage
examples of a drop sider or tipper continue to attract buyer attention and solid
prices.
4x4 Pickups - 16% of overall sales
Stock availability is unfavourably high at present with vendors holding too much
similar stock. Only the nicest examples, priced to sell, have found success. High
specification L200 Barbarian, L200 Warrior and Navara Tekna have sold in decent
volumes, whilst the Amarok Highline and Ranger Wildtrak have generally
underperformed. Any 4x4 fitted with an automatic gearbox has tended to fare better.
Conversion rates improved for older examples of Ranger, Hilux, L200 and Navara.
5Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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As with other big cities, Birmingham city centre has secured government
funding to set up a Clean Air Zone (CAZ). Given how much Birmingham city
centre has expanded over the last decade with new business as well as more
people living in the city centre, the time is right for the introduction of this
scheme.
The Birmingham CAZ is due to start in January 2020. The scheme will be
similar to London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ). High polluting cars and
commercial vehicles will be charged a set fee to enter congested roads and
areas.
A CAZ is an area where targeted action is taken to improve air quality, in
particular by discouraging the most polluting vehicles from entering the zone.
No vehicle is banned in the zone, but vehicles that do not have clean enough
engines pay a daily charge to enter the zone.
The rationale behind the Birmingham CAZ is to help improve air quality and
make drivers think before entering the zone. UK cities need to reduce levels of
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) as research links the death of nearly 900 people a year
to poor air quality. The old, the young and those with respiratory conditions are
most vulnerable.
The highlighted area on the map shows the Birmingham CAZ. The zone covers
the area within the A450 Middleway ring road including the whole of the city
centre.
The scheme will operate 24 hour per day 7 days per week with any vehicle
entering the CAZ paying once a day allowing travel in and out of the CAZ as
many times as required. The charges for cars and vans will be £8 per day and
heavy goods vehicles and buses will be £50 per day.
Below are the requirements for vehicles exempt from the charges. To avoid
paying the CAZ Charge drivers will need a vehicle that meets the requirements
below.
• A diesel of Euro 6 standard of better
• A petrol of Euro 4 standard or better
• Zero emission, i.e. electric or hydrogen vehicles
• Low emission, including CNG (compressed natural gas) and hybrids that
either meet or go beyond Euro 6 diesel and Euro 4 petrol standards
• Motorcycles, mopeds and scooters are exempt
• Emergency vehicles
Breathing easy in Birmingham
6Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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Exemptions
If vehicles are not CAZ compliant, and drivers working within the CAZ area
earn less than £30,000 a year, Birmingham City Council are planning not to
charge these drivers until January 2021, one year after the CAZ is introduced.
Birmingham City Council is planning additional help for these lower earners as
either:
• £1,000 credit on a swift card which can be used on public transport in the
West Midlands region and, in future, on a West Midlands bike share scheme
• If a non-compliant vehicle is scrapped, a choice of £2,000 credit on a swift
card or £2,000 towards the purchase of a compliant vehicle
A further exemption is planned for vehicles that are not CAZ compliant and
owners have lived in the CAZ area since before September 2018. For these
drivers, Birmingham City Council are not planning to charge these drivers to
drive in the CAZ until January 2022, two years after the CAZ is introduced.
Further exemptions include:
• People visiting key hospitals, GPs and care homes inside the CAZ will
be exempt for the first year only
• Commercial vehicles registered within the CAZ, including HGVs, LCVs
and coaches, maximum two per firm - will not have to pay for the first
year
• Vans and minibuses registered as providing essential community and
school transport services and classified as section 19 operators,
registered for operation in Birmingham will not have to pay
• Vehicles registered with disabled tax class will be exempt for the
duration of the CAZ
Birmingham City council has stated this is a scheme that needs to be
introduced or it will face heavy fines if pollution remains at current levels.
The cost to set up are reported to be around £67.8 million including
measures to help residents and workers. Birmingham council have been
granted £38 million from the national Clean Air Fund to pay for introducing
the scheme. There will be a shortfall of £16million as the amount
Birmingham Council asked for has not been met. This means some parts of
the scheme maybe cut back unless additional funds can be found by an
existing cash sensitive council.
Income generation
Birmingham City Council calculates that the CAZ is likely to generate
revenue around £205million over the ten-year period. In the first year alone,
the revenue generated is likely to be around £43million (2020/21). The
revenue outweighs the total cost of implementation and maintenance of the
zone over the ten years, calculated to be around £108million. Surplus cash
generated by the CAZ is required to be ring-fenced and reinvested into
further measures to improve the city’s transport and air quality.
Breathing easy in Birmingham
7Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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Estimates suggest in the first year around 4,600 non-compliant cars will enter
the CAZ every day. That number is expected to fall year on year as drivers and
companies renew vehicles and become more aware of the charges to enter the
zone.
Last mile delivery
As E-commerce continues to grow, the last leg of delivery, ending up at the
consumer's home or business, is becoming more challenging, especially with
the introduction of CAZs. Thanks to the “Amazon Effect”, consumers demand
convenient options for delivery, putting pressure on other businesses to
compete for the perfect delivery experience.
The definition of last mile delivery is “the movement of goods from a transport
hub to its final destination”. This final element of the supply chain is booming in
line with E-commerce growth into an industry estimated to be worth £160
billion to the UK economy in 2016.
It is the last mile delivery that is having a significant impact on our urban
environment. It is the least efficient element of most supply chains, with the
final leg of the journey making up to 28% of a product’s total transportation
cost. Added to this economic cost, congestion in urban areas, distance in
remote areas, invalid or incorrect address details, hard-to-locate destinations
and a lack of human presence to sign for deliveries mean the process is far
from optimal.
Be prepared
With the shift towards convenience retail and internet shopping within the
densely populated Birmingham CAZ, deliveries into them are essential. In
Birmingham between 2002 and 2015, the number of people living within 0.8
miles of the City centre increased 163%. Pair this population trend with the
growing numbers of grocery outlets, trades people, next day and even same
day deliveries, there will be increasing numbers of delivery and service
vehicles entering the CAZ.
This poses some big questions for businesses. With competitive markets and
thin margins, can additional delivery and journey costs be absorbed or
recovered elsewhere?
• Does the vehicle fleet meet the criteria for low emissions?
• Can routes be more efficiently scheduled to reduce the volume (and
location) of emissions?
• Is there a new model for urban deliveries to prioritise emission reduction?
Businesses need to consider the impact of CAZs on their customers and how
to meet the requirements of each CAZ. This may mean investing in more
environmentally responsible transport, such as electric vehicles that could
avoid the need to pass additional costs on to customers.
Not every business or every driver will be ready for this new challenge.
However, by thinking ahead, and considering the requirements of the CAZ,
businesses and private drivers can prepare themselves for the changes ahead.
Breathing easy in Birmingham
8Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the
current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers
versatility, economy and outstanding value for money.
Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “Strong economical engines
and two rows of seats, together with a good size payload area are attractive
benefits”.
Andy added that, “Sportive models in colour fitted with plenty of extras are
seen as good value for money compared to more expensive competitors”
WHY?
The Vivaro has always had a good following in the UK. Built in Luton, there are
four economical 1.6CDTi turbo-diesel engines to choose from generating
95bhp, 115bhp, 125bhp or 145bhp. Two body lengths are also available with
body choices of panel van, crewcab van, 9-seat minibus and a platform cab for
aftermarket conversions. The cabin is comfortable and well laid out, with plenty
of storage and adjustable driver’s seat. Standard security features include
deadlocks and immobiliser. The Doublecab van opens the Vivaro to a new
audience regularly used by the family or a crew of workers.
WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?
The forerunner to the Vivaro, the Vauxhall Arena launched in the UK in 1997.
The second-generation X83 model launched in 2001 and was a joint venture
with sister products the Renault Trafic and Nissan Primastar with crew vans
launching in 2005. Various engine changes and minor facelifts took place until
the replacement arrived in 2014. The current third generation X82 model
added the Fiat Talento to the partnership and is still in production. Following
the purchase of Vauxhall by PSA, the replacement for the current Vivaro will be
via a PSA donor vehicle, the Citroen Dispatch.
WHAT’S GOOD?
Frugal diesel engines, good handling, a spacious load area coupled to a large
dealer network have helped Vauxhall establish the Vivaro as a popular new
and used van. The timing chain requires no servicing work, whilst service
intervals are set at competitive two years or 25,000 miles, whichever is sooner.
The Doublecab benefits from a glazed plastic bulkhead fitted with a hinged flap
at the base to allow for extra-long lengths to be stored under the rear
passenger seats.
WHAT’S BAD?
The current Vivaro is behind the competition concerning safety features. Whilst
the van also misses the more powerful engines available from competitors in
this sector and no automatic gearbox is available.
IDEAL BUY?
Vauxhall Vivaro Sportive 2900 1.6 CDTI 125ps s/s E6 L2H1 Doublecab van on
a 17/17 plate with 47k on the clock.
Glass Retail £15,550 Trade £13,075
Used van hero June: VauxhallVivaroSportive2900 1.6CDTi 125PS s/s E6 L2H1 Doublecabvan
9Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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Residual values –measuring our accuracy
10
How accurate are our current Glass Trade values?
Glass’s closely monitors the wholesale auction market and all observations gathered are used to help us to achieve our target of the Glass Trade Value. The
graphs below show Glass’s Trade Accuracy For LCVs Observed in May 2019 versus the average Glass Trade Valuation for May.
The image to the left is a snapshot of our
accuracy reporting dashboard.
Glass’s subscribers get full access to our
accuracy dashboard each month and filters
include:
• vehicle type
• fuel type
• manufacturer
This means subscribers can see just how
accurate we are on what matters most to
them.
Glass's Monthly CV Market Report – June 2019
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Glass’s Monthly Market ReportJune 2019
Author:
Phil Curry, Data Journalist, Autovista Group
Contributors:
Anthony Machin, Head of Content, Glass’s
Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass’s
Jonathan Wyatt, Analytics Manager, Glass’s
David Hill, Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass’s
Media enquiries: [email protected]
Glass’s, part of Autovista Group
5th Floor, Wellington House
125 Strand
London
WC2R 0AP
w: www.glassbusiness.co.uk
p: +44 (0)20 3897 2500
T: @GlassGuide
Published by Glass’s Information Services Ltd. All material © Glass’s Information Services 2019. 11
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And finally…
RENAULT REVEALS LATEST GENERATION TRAFIC AND MASTER VANS PACKED
WITH CUTTING EDGE TECHNOLOGY - WLTP AND EURO 6DTEMP COMPLIANT
• New 2.0-litre single turbo engine for Trafic – choice of 4 power outputs
• Efficient Dual Clutch (EDC) Automatic gearbox available for the first time on Trafic
• New 2.3-litre twin turbo engine for Master – 135bhp, 150bhp & 180bhp
• Master ZE available
• First deliveries – September 2019