getting to maybe: strategic plans and adaptive management · 2008-05-22 · other human benefits...
TRANSCRIPT
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TopicsDynamic Systems and Regime Management
Ecological Resilience and AEAM
Uncertainties of Resource ManagementDifferent Types of ProblemsAdaptive Management & Adaptive Governance
Adaptive Planning and ManagementKruger National Park ExampleManagement Objectives Hierarchy
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Social-Ecological System
Ecosystem ServicesWater supply,
Flood protection Recreation,
Others
Human SystemInstitutionsPreferences
EcosystemStructure and
Functions
Actions, Interventions
Dams,Levees,canals
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RegimesSystem A B
Rangeland: grass <--> shrubs
Reefs: coral <--> algae
Lakes: clear <--> turbid
Populations: endangered <--> safe
Managing Regimes
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Maintain Current/Desired RegimeDetect and Avoid thresholds
Managing Regimes
Nutrient Thresholds in Everglades
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Move System to Desired RegimeRestoration of
Temperature variabilitySedimentsPre‐ dam fauna
Managing Regimes
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TopicsDynamic Systems and Regime Management
Resilience and AEAM
Uncertainties of Resource ManagementDifferent Types of ProblemsAdaptive Management & Adaptive Governance
Adaptive Planning and ManagementKruger National Park Example
Management Objectives Hierarchy
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Managers must deal with different problem domains
PoliticsPolitics
ScienceScience
CommunityCommunity
OrganizationOrganization
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Managing Uncertainty
‐‐Problem DomainProblem Domain
‐science
‐‐organizationalorganizational
‐‐communitycommunity
‐‐politicalpolitical
‐ adequate theory‐multiple hypotheses‐ tractability (complexity) ‐models
•scales and data‐ types of science
•integrative•piecemeal
‐ types of learning
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‐‐Problem DomainProblem Domain
‐‐sciencescience
‐organizational
‐‐communitycommunity‐‐politicalpolitical
‐ culture of institution ‐ scales of institutions‐ integration (in/out game)‐ shifting objectives‐ sources of novelty
(loyal heretics , skunkworks)
‐ location of learning
Managing Uncertainty
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‐‐Problem DomainProblem Domain
‐‐sciencescience‐‐organizationalorganizational
‐community
‐‐politicalpolitical
‐ role of crises‐windows of opportunity
‐groups‐functional (epistemic, advocates)‐formal (AMP) / informal (shadow)
‐ arenas for discourse‐ use of uncertainty‐ trust & social capital
Managing Uncertainty
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‐‐Problem DomainProblem Domain
‐‐sciencescience‐‐organizationalorganizational‐‐communitycommunity
‐political
‐leadership‐arena for experimentation‐scale spanners
‐expressions of power‐alternative agendas
‐use of scientific uncertainty ‐status quo
‐multiple discourses‐ scales
Managing Uncertainty
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Managing Uncertainty
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TopicsDynamic Systems and Regime Management
Uncertainties of Resource ManagementDifferent Types of ProblemsAdaptive Management & Adaptive Governance
Adaptive Planning and ManagementKruger National Park Example
Management Objectives Hierarchy
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Kruger National Park:
Integrating Plans
Defining objectives(Thanks to Harry Biggs and Kevin Rogers)
Planning and Adaptive Management
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KNP Management Process
Not effective
Effective
If TPC reached
Define desired stateVision/Mission
Stakeholder and societal inputs
Research, modelling, scenario planning,
enhance predictive capability, generate understanding, learning
Specify Thresholds of Potential Concern (TPCs)
Design monitoring programme
Execute monitoring programme and
evaluate against TPCs
Re-evaluate TPC specification
Evaluate acceptability of alternative management actions and design
strategy
Implementation(On-the- ground-management)
Evaluate effectiveness of management actions
SURPRISES(e.g. floods, droughts, politics)
5 year cycle
Objectives, sub-objectives
Short term cycle
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Kruger National Park Mission Statement
In keeping with the SANParks mission;
1. to maintain biodiversity in all its natural facets and fluxes
2. provide for tourism and other human benefits, and build a strong constituency
3 . nd preserve as far as possible the wilderness qualities and cultural resources associated with the Park
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SANParks mission
KNP mission
BiodiversityTo maintain
biodiversity in all its natural facets and
fluxes
Ecos
ystem objec
tive
Lega
l & Statuto
ry
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SANParks mission
KNP mission
BiodiversityTo maintain
biodiversity in all its natural facets and
fluxes
Ecos
ystem objec
tive
Lega
l & Statuto
ry
Tourism & other human
benefitsTo provide for tourism and other human benefits and
build a strong constituency, preserving as far as possible the
wilderness qualities and cultural resources
associated with the Park
Tourism
Cons
titue
ncy Bu
ilding
Cultu
ral H
erita
ge
Wild
erne
ss
Dire
ct Hum
an ben
efits
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SANParks mission
KNP mission
BiodiversityTo maintain
biodiversity in all its natural facets and
fluxes
IntegrationBy agreeing on a desired1 set of future conditions to strive for, and by developing an adequate set of principles and appropriate approaches, to balance human activities and development inside and around the KNP, with the need to conserve ecosystem integrity and wilderness qualities. A holistic view will be strived for, of an integrated socio‐ecological system. 1 (necessarily environmentally fluctuating)
Ecos
ystem objec
tive
Lega
l & Statuto
ry
Tourism & other human
benefitsTo provide for tourism and other human benefits and
build a strong constituency, preserving as far as possible the
wilderness qualities and cultural resources
associated with the Park
Tourism
Cons
titue
ncy Bu
ilding
Cultu
ral H
erita
ge
Wild
erne
ss
Dire
ct Hum
an ben
efits
Sustaina
ble Utilization
Des
ired state
Integrated Env
ironm
ental Mgt ethic
Strategic Ada
ptive Mgt action
Rese
arch esp
ecially Soc
io‐eco
logica
l
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SANParks mission
KNP mission
BiodiversityTo maintain
biodiversity in all its natural facets and
fluxes
IntegrationBy agreeing on a desired1 set of future conditions to strive for, and by developing an adequate set of principles and appropriate approaches, to balance human activities and development inside and around the KNP, with the need to conserve ecosystem integrity and wilderness qualities. A holistic view will be strived for, of an integrated socio‐ecological system. 1 (necessarily environmentally fluctuating)
Ecos
ystem objec
tive
Lega
l & Statuto
ry
Tourism & other human
benefitsTo provide for tourism and other human benefits and
build a strong constituency, preserving as far as possible the
wilderness qualities and cultural resources
associated with the Park
Tourism
Cons
titue
ncy Bu
ilding
Cultu
ral H
erita
ge
Wild
erne
ss
Dire
ct Hum
an ben
efits
EnablingTo provide cross‐cutting support
services which enable KNP to achieve the line function biodiversity and
people objectives, and balance these effectively.
NB : must be cross‐linked to; and is subject to growth depending on
further demands from the other three
Commun
ication
Infrastruc
ture
Hum
an Res
ources
Fina
ncial res
ources
Sustaina
ble Utilization
Des
ired state
Integrated Env
ironm
ental Mgt ethic
Strategic Ada
ptive Mgt action
Rese
arch esp
ecially Soc
io‐eco
logica
l
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Ecosystem objective
To understand and manage the KNP as part of the Lowveld savanna and its river catchment areas in such a manner as to conserve and restore its varied natural structure, function and composition over time and space, and its wilderness qualities, through an approach integrating the different scales of types of objectives in the KNP objectives tree.
Aquatic Terrestrial Alien Species Rare Biota
To develop an integrated understanding of ecosystem diversity and dynamics, and where necessary intervene with appropriate strategies, in order to conserve and restore terrestrial biodiversity and natural processes
Atmospheric
To understand the major effects of climate (esp. rainfall) in influencing biodiversity, and therefore if, when and how to take management decisions (including the no‐action decision) with this clearer context.
To maintain the intrinsic biodiversity (hydrological, geomorphic and biotic) of the aquatic ecosystems as an integral component of the landscape, and where necessary restore or simulate natural structure, function and composition.
To anticipate, prevent entry and where possible control invasive alien species, in an effort to minimize the impact on, and maintain the integrity of indigenous biodiversity
To prevent extinction within the Kruger Park of any species on the IUCN’s global critically endangered or endangered lists1, and to work with other conservation initiatives to secure and strengthen the future of such species over their historic distribution ranges. To put in place appropriate conservation efforts of other threatened2
species or lower taxonomic division, including considering recommendations of experts of invertebrate taxa for which no formal red listing has been done, according to a realistic framework. Except in crucial instances for the survival of globally critically endangered species management for system integrity and biodiversity must take precedence over species management.
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Terrestrial ecosystem objective: To develop an integrated understanding of ecosystem diversity and dynamics, and where necessary intervene with appropriate strategies, in order to conserve an restore terrestrial biodiversity and natural processes
Ecological Processes Objective:
To understand the major processes which are, or should be, taking place in the ecosystems in and around KNP, articulating implications for management and responding appropriately in the interests of biodiversity management.
Abiotic processes Biotic processes
Terres
trial’co
mpo
nents of hyrdrolog
ical cyc
leincl
Rainfall, e
vapo
tran
spira
tion, soil infiltratio
n,
grou
ndwater cyc
ling
‐Soil for
mation, erosion
‐Dec
ompo
sitio
n (uv, biotic etc)
‐Fire
‐Nutrie
nt cyc
ling an
d en
ergy con
version
Composition, Structure & Pattern Objective:
to adequately inventorise our biodiversity heritage, understand the ecology of important elements, and of unnatural threats leading to compositional or structural changes deemed beyond acceptable flux limits, and respond appropriately.
‐Lan
d classific
ations
‐Gen
etic doc
umen
ation
‐Agg
rega
te des
criptio
ns eg biod
iversity and
complem
entarit
y indice
s
‐Autec
olog
y of selec
ted sp
ecies/taxa
‐Hab
itat p
atterns an
d structure
‐Com
mun
ity listings
‐Tax
a listin
gs
Community Processes
Compe
tition an
d Co
mmun
ity Dyn
amics
Herbivo
ry
Disea
se and parasitism
Pred
ation
Prim
ary prod
uctio
n
Succes
sion
Species Processes
Reprod
uctio
n (in
clud
ing po
llina
tion an
d se
ed
disp
ersal), surviva
l and m
ortality.
Natural Selec
tion /N
atural Extinction
Gen
etic Proce
sses
Migratio
n, nom
adism, d
ispe
rsal, c
olon
isation
and reintrod
uctio
ns
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Fluvial geomorphology and riparian vegetation: TPCs for flow and sediment as agents of changeRationale: Increased sediment storage causes alluviation, loss of habitatdiversity from bedrock influence and reduction in diversity of woody species regeneration niches.
Indicators Measurement TPC
Bedrock dominated geomorphic units (4 of 14) in representative reaches of bedrock channel types (5 of 9)
Aerial extent. Every 5 years and after floods/ droughts >1:25 yrs. 20x20m grid square
E.G. Pool-rapid reaches; point and lateral bars >20% cover; pools >15%
Population structure of woody species which regenerate on the bedrock template
Size class frequency distribution every 3 yrs and events >1:25 yrs in selected representative reaches/channel types
E.G. Breonadiasalicina: loss of negative J population structure in pool rapid reaches/channel types
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SUGGESTIONSComplex Resource SystemsSocial and Ecological Components--DYNAMIC!Regime ManagementResilience moderates transitions
Managers must deal with different problem domainsScience, community, organization, politicsWhere is the problem?
Social Objectives - Desired ConditionsHierarchy of Goals/Objectives
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SUGGESTIONSStrategic Plans and Adaptive ManagementRe-evaluate plans and change as neededDevelop shared views of possible futuresDifferences are good, polarization is bad Discourses and collaborations, not fixed structures.Focus on new ideas, solutionsGetting to MaybeLeadership across scales is neededOne person can do it for a time, but several are better locally, regionally and politically.