genworth canada investor-presentation-june2016
TRANSCRIPT
1 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
June 2016
Proven Business Model
2 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Forward-looking and non-IFRS statements
DRIVING VALUE THROUGH CUSTOMIZED SERVICE EXPERIENCE
Public communications, including oral or written communications such as this document, relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the
“Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) often contain certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future operating and financial results, expectations
regarding premiums written, losses on claims and investment income, the Canadian housing market, and other statements that are
not historical facts. These forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,”
“intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based
on the Company’s current assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market
and regulatory matters. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in
circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from
those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the
Company’s assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s most recently issued Annual Information Form,
Management’s Discussion and Analysis, its Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated June 18, 2014, the Prospectus Supplements
thereto, and all documents incorporated by reference in such documents. Management’s current views regarding the Company’s
financial outlook are stated as of the date hereof and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Other than as required by
applicable laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a
result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Non-IFRS financial measures
include net operating income, interest and dividend income (net of investment expenses), operating earnings per common share
(basic), operating earnings per common share (diluted), shareholders’ equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income
(“AOCI”), operating return on equity and underwriting ratios such as loss ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio. The Company
believes that these non-IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its performance and may
be useful to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial
and operational decision making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are unlikely to be comparable to any
similar measures presented by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s glossary, which is posted on the
Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS financial measures to the most readily
comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable can be found in the Company’s most recent
management’s discussion and analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available at www.sedar.com.
3 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
$3.1 billion Market capitalization*
92 million Shares outstanding
$6.2 billion Total assets
$3.5 billion Shareholders’ equity
Genworth Canada overview
WHO WE ARE
LARGEST private residential mortgage insurer in Canada
Helped ~1M+ families achieve homeownership
Supported 250+ Canadian lenders
WHAT WE DO1
1 2
4 3
Mortgage Application Mortgage Insurance Application and Premium
Mortgage Loan Insurance Contract
MARKET FACTS (Q1 2016)
• Mandatory for less than 20% down payment
• Covers 100% of loan, secured by property
• Upfront non-refundable premium
• Lender receives protection against loss from
mortgage default
• Capital relief for lenders
Homebuyer Mortgage lender (originates mortgage)
Mortgage insurer
Note: Company sources
1. Denotes transactional mortgage insurance.
*As at June 20th, 2016, Source: Bloomberg.
4 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Q1 2016 financial results
1.03
0.99 1.00 1.03
0.99
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
$MM except
ROE, EPS &
MCT
Q1
2016
Q4
2015
Q1
2015 Q/Q Y / Y
Premiums
written $117 $213 $130 -45% -10%
Loss ratio 24% 23% 22% +1 pt +2 pts
Net Operating
Income $91 $95 $97 -4% -6%
Operating ROE 11% 12% 12% -1% -1%
Operating EPS
(dil.) $0.99 $1.03 $1.03 -4% -4%
MCT1 234% 234% 233% Flat +1 pt
Q1 key highlights
• Top-line constrained primarily due to targeted
underwriting changes and a smaller transactional
insurance market
• Loss ratio of 24%, below expected range
• Operating income -4% Q/Q, primarily due to
marginally higher combined ratio
• Ongoing capital strength with MCT ratio of 234%1
Operating EPS (diluted) Book Value Per Share (diluted, incl. AOCI2)
36.07 36.18 36.14 36.82 37.23
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
+3%
YoY
1. Q1 2016 MCT company estimate. MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company.
2. Book value per share, diluted, including AOCI.
5 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Served market: first time homebuyers
Purchase price <300K >300K - <=500K >500K
NATIONAL VANCOUVER TORONTO CALGARY
…and what our prudent home buyers purchase
What our prudent home buyer profile looks like…
53%
31%
11%
5%
<= 100K >100K - 150K >150K - 200K > 200K
55%
28%
13%
5%
<= 35 >35 - <= 45 >45 - <= 55 > 55
64% 12% 24% 40% 22% 38% 39% 29% 32% 67% 11% 22%
Detached Condo Row/Semi
3% immigrated
to Canada1
67% bought with
spouse/partner1
752 average
credit score2
Average
household
income
= $97K
Average
borrower age
= 36 years
Avg. price3
$427,634
Avg. price3
$326,967
Avg. price3
$461,688
Avg. price3
$406,113
Note: Company sources. 1. Jan16-Mar16 timeframe; Purchase Business only. 2. Credit score references the Q1 2016 YTD timeframe; Purchase Business only 3. Average price represents Greater Calgary Area, Greater Toronto Area and
Greater Vancouver Area as at 2016 YTD; Purchase Business only
6 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Drivers of losses on claims
UNEMPLOYMENT & PORTFOLIO QUALITY
DRIVE PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT
Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Bankers Association (CBA, annual average) and Company sources. 1. Based on Company’s estimate of outstanding balance of insured mortgages as at December 31, 2015 of $193B.
Mortgage arrears and
unemployment rate
2. Portfolio quality
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
200
2
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
4
201
5
Mortgage Arrears
UE Rate (R)
Strong correlation
49% 49%
67%
71%
76%
81%
87%
92%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Portfolio<=2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Portfolio 2015
> 20% Equity
O/S
Insured
Mortgage
Balances1
($B)
Transactional Segment
$76 $23 $9 $12 $14 $15 $20 $24
Transactional
Effective LTV
(National, as at December 31, 2015)
1. Unemployment 3. House prices
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
MIC All Market All
Median house price appreciation
(‘$000s)
PRICE APPRECIATION & EFFECTIVE LTV
DRIVE LOSS GIVEN DEFAULT
7 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Insurance risk framework
• Portfolio analytics
• Identification of emerging
loss trends
• Dynamic underwriting
guidelines
• Proactive loss mitigation
• Comprehensive master
policy
Portfolio risk
management
• Underwriting fundamentals
• Risk limits and triggers
• Proprietary mortgage
scoring model
• Robust quality assurance
Manage the quality
of new business
RISK PILLARS
• Macro-economic
environment
• Housing market trends
• Regional risk factors
Identify & assess
key risks
Supportive
regulatory
framework
• Defined underwriting best practices (OSFI’s B20 / B21 support
safety and soundness)
• Borrower recourse
• Efficient and effective mortgage foreclosure process
REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
8 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Regional risk assessment
Note: Based on Company estimates.
Slowdown will pressure
delqs in Alberta &
Saskatchewan
Monitoring
housing risk in
GTA and GVA
Balanced risk profile
in Pacific, Quebec
and Ontario
Ho
us
ing
ris
k
Economic risk Low High
High
GTA
GVA
Quebec
Alberta
Atlantic
Ontario
(ex GTA)
Prairies
Key Metrics
Price-to-income
Affordability
Price growth
Key Metrics: GDP; UE Rate; Economic diversity
Pacific
(ex GVA)
9 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Portfolio quality improving
TRANSACTIONAL PORTFOLIO QUALITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO ‘07/08
Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written.
Highlights
Steady credit score
improvement year-over-year
Modest home
price increases
Stable debt
servicing ratios
Credit score Average gross debt service ratio (%) Median home price (In ‘$000s)
16
%
3%
71
6
75
1
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q1'1
6
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
24
%
23
%
22
%
24
%
25
%
24
%
23
%
24
%
24
%
25
%
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q1'1
6
$2
25
$2
32
$2
40
$2
55
$2
70
$2
75
$2
80
$2
91
$2
95
$3
01
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q1'1
6
10 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Delinquency performance
1,177 1,415
1,232 1,047
735 619 517 395 385 383
108
240 387
492
480
342 295
268 181 187
165
484 862 1,048
722
437
284
222 303 424
413
561
645 552
554
515
482 569 624
656
183
240
255 262
261
240
252 302 336
384
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016
Number of reported delinquencies
Loss
Ratio2 19% 31% 42% 33% 37% 33% 25% 20% 21% 24%
3,381 3,401
2,752
2,153
1,830 1,756 1,829
2,940
2,046
Ontario
BC Alberta
Quebec
Other
Dec. 31, 2015
delinquency
rate1
0.31%
0.45%
0.22%
0.18%
0.10%
Note: Company sources.
1. Based on outstanding insured mortgages as at December 30, 2015
2. Loss ratio in 2009 excludes the impact of the change to the premium recognition curve in the first quarter of 2009.
2,034
EMERGING ALBERTA PRESSURE…. QUEBEC SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING
0.21% Total
8%
61%
23%
8%
Portfolio insurance
Core transactionalproducts
Refinance >80%LTV
100% LTV
Products
Eliminated
2010 delinquency
mix by
product
Elimination of higher risk products
11 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
2016 annual loss ratio expectations
Regional Transactional NIW Dispersion
25% 27% 22% 20%
38% 38% 39% 42%
14% 12% 12% 11%
10% 12% 13% 15%
13% 12% 12% 12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2013 2014 2015 Q1'16
Alberta Ontario Quebec B.C. Other
Average Credit Score
National 733 737 743 751
Alberta 730 734 740 751
Responsible Underwriting Actions
Enhanced borrower due diligence,
ensuring consumers can afford to stay
in homes for the long term
Increased underwriting due diligence
resulting in slightly smaller but better
quality Alberta portfolio in 2015/16
Increased appraisals and property
risk assessment, ensuring borrowers
are not over-leveraged
12 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Elevated risk: regional markets
Median Prices (‘$000s)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
GNW Single GNW Condo
Market Single Market Condo
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
GNW Single GNW Condo
Market Single Market Condo
Greater Vancouver
Note: Company sources, except for market data based on Teranet, CREA and Statistics Canada. Median price on transactional new insurance written for purchase transactions (excludes re-financings).
PRODUCT RESTRICTIONS AND AFFORDABILITY CONSTRAINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO MORE MODEST HOME PRICE APPRECIATION IN GENWORTH SERVED MARKET
Greater Toronto
13 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Loss performance & economic scenarios
MI PRICED TO COVER TYPICAL ECONOMIC CYCLE
Illustration: Expected over
economic cycle
Stress
scenario
Unemployment rate
change over 5 years 1% to 2% increase 2% to 4% increase
Cumulative HPA /
HPD over 5 years 5% to 7% -15% to -20%
Loss ratio (national)
over 5 years 25% to 30% 60% to 70%
Note: Company estimates based upon historical data and performance trends; expected ranges are approximations. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed above.
14 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Top line
$3.9 $3.4 $5.9 $4.5
$6.8 $4.1
~$22.0 $8.3 $6.1
$6.2 $9.6
2015 Q1'16 2015 Q1'16
New insurance written ($ billions) Net premiums written ($ millions)
Note: Company sources.
$25.2 $25.7
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
New insurance written Net premiums written
Impact of lower transactional
new insurance written
partially offset by a higher
average premium rate
Portfolio insurance
premiums written primarily
reflect low LTVs and high
credit quality
Transactional Portfolio
$104 $99
$183
$236
$181
2015 Q1'16
$705 $104
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Transactional Portfolio
$26 $18
$22
$24
$32
2015 Q1'16
Reflects portfolio insurance NIW
in first three weeks of April 2016
Reflects portfolio insurance
premiums written in first three
weeks of April 2016
Targeted underwriting
changes and a smaller
transactional insurance market
have driven modestly lower
transactional NIW
Portfolio NIW….
strong pipeline
reflects increased
demand ahead of
July 1, 2016
regulatory change
Average premium rate
2.79% 2.91%
15 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Solid financial performance
$MM except EPS & BVPS Q1’16 Q4’15 Q1’15
Transactional premiums written $99 $181 $104
Portfolio premiums written 18 32 26
Total premiums written $117 $213 $130
Premiums earned 154 151 143
Losses on claims (37) (35) (31)
Expenses (28) (27) (24)
Underwriting income $88 $90 $87
Net investment income (excl. realized gains / losses)
41 44 42
Net operating income $91 $95 $97
Operating EPS (diluted)
$0.99 $1.03 $1.03
Book value per share (diluted, incl. AOCI)
$37.23 $36.82 $36.07
Q1 highlights
• Transactional premiums written lower by
5% Y/Y
• Premiums earned increased Q/Q by
$3 million
• Loss ratio of 24%, up 1 pt Q/Q
• Net investment income down $2 million
Q/Q
• Net operating income down Y/Y, primarily
due to an increase in the corporate tax
rate and a $5 million non-recurring
favourable tax item in Q1 2015
• Book value per share up 3% Y/Y
Note: Amounts may not total due to rounding.
16 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Solid underwriting profitability
87 90 89 90 88
24 29 28 27 28
31 25 31 35 37
Q1' 15 Q2' 15 Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16
Underwriting profitability ($ millions)
Underwriting
profit
Expenses
Losses on claims
Loss ratio 22% 17% 21% 23% 24%
Expense ratio 17% 20% 19% 18% 19%
Combined
ratio 39% 37% 40% 41% 42%
Premiums earned $151 $143 $144 $148
2016 ANNUAL LOSS RATIO ESTIMATED RANGE: 25% TO 40%
$154
Avg. reserve
per delq. ($000’s)
$66.2 $69.8 $70.4 $71.9 $70.9
Highlights
Continued growth
in premiums
earned
New delinquencies net of cures increased by
81 Q/Q, primarily due to Alberta, partly offset by
a modest decrease in Ontario and Quebec
Loss ratio
marginally below
expected range
Solid underwriting
profitability with
42% combined ratio
New delinquencies net of cures by region
114 59
105 96 77
52
38 42 31 40
47
43
75 89 183
130
119
116 156
138 76
58
76 82
92
13
2
26 33
38
Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16
432 319 440 487 568
Ontario
Pacific2
Alberta
Quebec
Atlantic
Prairies1
1 Prairies includes MB and SK. 2 Pacific includes the Territories.
Total
17 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Strong balance sheet
($ millions) March 31, 2016 Dec. 31, 2015 Dec. 31, 2014
Assets
Cash and investments $ 5,872 $ 5,917 $ 5,472
Other assets 338 322 299
Total assets $ 6,211 $ 6,239 $ 5,771
Liabilities
Loss reserves 144 132 115
Unearned premiums 1,984 2,021 1,799
Other liabilities 621 666 585
Total liabilities 2,749 2,819 2,499
Shareholders’ equity
(incl. AOCI) 3,462 3,420 3,271
Total liabilities and
shareholders’ equity $ 6,211 $ 6,239 $ 5,771
234% MCT Ratio
vs. Holding Target
of 220%
Strong capital
position with MCT
modestly above
220% holding
target
$2.0 billion of
unearned
premiums
represents future
revenues
High quality
investment
portfolio 95%
investment grade
fixed income
18 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Federals
Provincials
Preferred shares
Emerging markets debt3
Investment grade
corporates2
Cash4
33%
17%
35%
5%
5%
5%
Investments contribute steady income
Duration: 3.7 years
Book yield: 3.1%1
Invested assets (C$ millions, unless noted)
Note: Company sources.
1. Represents market value. Book yield represents pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of portfolio (as at Mar. 31, 2016).
2. Market value, includes CLOs. 3. 99% Investment grade. 4. Cash includes short-term investments.
Total Invested Assets ($5.9B portfolio1) Net Investment Income ($ millions)
$5,917
$5,867
LOW RATES CONTINUE TO PRESSURE INVESTMENT
YIELD…FOCUS ON OPTIMIZING YIELD WITHIN RISK APPETITE
$353 million of
maturities over
remainder of 2016
5,641 5,633
276 235
Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Book value
Net
unrealized
gain
$5.9B $5.9B
43.8 41.5
Q4 2015 Q1 2016
19 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
2,396
449 436
569 570
219 217
December 31st,2015
March 31st, 2016
Capital management
INTEND TO OPERATE IN THE 225-230% MCT RANGE,
PENDING FINALIZATION OF THE CAPITAL FRAMEWORK
Regulatory capital at 220% MCT holding target (by risk category, $ millions)
Flexibility Efficiency
Strength
Note: Company sources. 1. Market risk includes interest rate, credit, equity risk, and foreign exchange risk.
MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company. 1Q16 MCT based on company estimates.
2. Represents liquid investments and cash held in addition to capital in operating insurance company.
• MCT ratio of 234%:
• Introduced interest rate hedging
program
• Strong portfolio insurance
pipeline for second quarter
• New capital framework for
insurance risk under development
for implementation in 2017:
• More risk sensitive
• No expected change in overall
level of capital held
• Renewing Normal Course Issuer
Bid
Highlights
3,633 3,636
Insurance Risk
Market Risk1
Operational Risk
Capital in
excess of 220%
MCT 234% 234%
Holdco
cash2 ($ millions)
$121 $173
2,413
20 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Keen focus on risk management
Proactive loss mitigation
programs
Investing in our customer
experience strategy
Key takeaways
Proven business model has positioned
MIC for future
performance
Balanced approach to writing
new business
21 Genworth MI Canada Inc.
[email protected] investor.genworthmicanada.ca
Investor Relations
Jonathan A. Pinto, MBA, LL.M
Vice President, Investor Relations
[email protected] 905.287.5482