5

Daily Market Note Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com 13

th November 2012

2011

Equities

Distribution Activities Boost the NSE...

The NSE 20 Share Index gained 0.11% to close at 4156.86 as equity turnover surged 1.14% to Kes.677.46Mn. The FTSE 15 and

FTSE 25, both followed suit gaining 0.04 and 0.02 points respectively. The NASI was the only index that closed in the red

losing 0.31% to 92.62. The FTSE Bond Index ascended 1.932 points to close at 102.652. Foreign investor’s further reduced their

participations contributing to 46.21% although they increased their positive inflow to Kes.325Mn. Market capitalisation

reduced to Kes.1.234Tn.

“Be Willing to Bet Big on the Right Opportunity.” Bill Ruane

The highlights of the day’s trading activity are listed below:

Table 1: NSE Performance Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Index Previous Today % change

NASI 92.91 92.62 -0.31%

NSE 20 Share 4152.11 4156.86 0.11%

FTSE NSE 15 122.79 122.83 0.03%

FTSE NSE 25 125.39 125.41 0.02%

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of today’s trading

session stood at 14/22with 14 stocks advancing in price and 22

shedding prices.

Foreign investor participation decreased from yesterday’s

49.59% to 46.22% of total activity.

Today’s session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.325.1Mn a

threefold increase from yesterday’s Kes.100M.

East Africa Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) was the most actively

traded stock among foreigners recording a turnover of

Kes.316.7Mn. Equity bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the

second highest foreign investor turnover at Kes.125.6M. The 2

counters accounted for 32.65% and 70.65% of the total NSE and

total foreign activity respectively.

Kenya Power and Lighting Co Ltd (NSE: KPLC) had the highest

net outflow of Kes.15.2Mn.

The stock with the highest net Inflow was East African

Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) worth Kes.205.96Mn.

Top Traders

Equity Volume

Mumias Sugar

Ltd

7,611,200

Safaricom Ltd 7,261,300

Equity Bank Co. Ltd 4,528,400

Centum Investment Co Ltd 3,241,200

Access Kenya Group 3,112,200

Gaining Stocks

Equity Price (KES) % Change

Scangroup Ltd. 64.50 4.03

Eveready East Africa 1.65

3.12

Uchumi Supermarket ltd 19.65

2.88

Kenya Airways Ltd 11.90 1.71

Sameer Africa Ltd 3.50

1.45

Losing Stocks

Equity Price (KES) % Change

Olympia Capital Holdings

Ltd

3.60

-6.49

Eaagads Ltd 24.75 -4.81

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd 5.50 -4.35

CFC Insurance Co. Ltd 6.65 -3.62

PanAfrican Insurance Co. 38.75 -3.13

Source: NSE *Closing Prices

Daily Market Note

2

Table 3: NSE Summary

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Automobiles and accessories sector was the best performer for the day, registering gains of 0.72%

supported by Sameer Africa Ltd (NSE: FIRE) up 1.45% to a VWAP of Kes.3.50 and Marshalls E.A. Ltd

(NSE:MASH) up 1.43% to a VWAP of 14.20. The total index performance decreased 0.48% where 7 of the

10 segments closed in negative territory.

The Investment Sector was the worst sector performer for the day, declining 1.76%. Losses are

attributed to the 6.49% decline of Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCL) to a VWAP of Kes.3.60.

Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

12th November 2012 13thNovember 2012

Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes) Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes)

206,824,840 106,489,030 475,644,155 150,537,210

Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position

100,335,810 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position

325,106,945

Sector Constituents Price Performance (% Change)

Automobiles and Accessories 4 0.72

Commercial and services 9 0.60

Energy and Petroleum 4 0.06 Banking 10 -0.08

Manufacturing and Allied 9 -0.17

Agriculturals 7 -0.66

Construction and Allied 5 -1.00

Telecommunication and Technology 2 -1.04

Insurance 6 -1.48

Investment 9 -1.76

Total Index 60 -0.48

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

12th Nov 2012 13th Nov 2012 % Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn) 1238.30 1234.40 0.00

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) 315.91 677.46 1.14

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) 47.29/52.71 53.78/46.21 N/A

Advance:Decline Ratio 17:19 14:22 N/A

Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn) 1349.30 1857.00 0.38

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

(Mn)395.00 700.00 N/A

Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of

Total Bond T/O)29.27% 37.70% N/A

Daily Market Note

3

Trading Ideas:

The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.

Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

CompanyPrice at

Recommendation

12 Month

Target Price

Current

Price

Upside

Potential

Return to

DateRecommendation

Centum Investments Ltd 14.55 19.55 12.50 36.06% -14.09% BUY

Equity Bank Limited 15.80 19.90 24.50 -23.12% 55.06% SELL

KenolKobil Limited 9.80 16.90 14.80 12.43% 51.02% HOLD

NIC Bank Limited 26.50 45.50 42.00 7.69% 58.49% BUY

EA Cables Ltd 11.80 14.55 11.15 23.37% -5.51% BUY

Athi River Mining Ltd 156.00 220.00 219.00 0.45% 40.38% HOLD

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd 88.50 123.40 119.00 3.57% 34.46% HOLD

KCB Group Ltd 18.50 33.10 30.00 9.37% 62.16% HOLD

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd 7.20 22.25 19.65 11.69% 172.92% HOLD

Kenya Power & Lighting Co. 15.85 21.00 18.35 12.62% 15.77% HOLD

Nation Media Group Ltd 153.00 233.60 231.00 1.11% 50.98% HOLD

British American Investments 4.00 6.25 6.30 -0.80% 57.50% HOLD

Bamburi Cement Ltd 168.00 201.00 176.00 12.44% 4.76% HOLD

Cooperative Bank Limited 11.55 18.50 12.50 32.43% 8.23% BUY

Kenya Reinsurance Corp. 10.05 15.35 12.20 20.52% 21.39% BUY

KenGen Ltd 8.30 16.25 9.90 39.08% 19.28% BUY

Jubilee Holdings Ltd 163.00 186.00 170.00 8.60% 4.29% HOLD

Sasini Ltd 10.90 15.50 11.90 23.23% 9.17% BUY

Housing Finance Ltd 13.65 27.00 15.00 44.44% 9.89% BUY

Scangroup Ltd 49.25 59.60 65.00 -9.06% 31.98% HOLD

Portfolio Return 34.41%

Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Fixed Income:

Government Seeks Kes.8bn…

Money Markets: The interbank rate declined to 7.91% from 8.64%.

Primary Markets: The 182-DayT-Bill was auctioned on Wednesday, 14th November 2012 while the 91-

Day T-Bill will be auctioned the following day. The government will be seeking Kes.4Bn from each

paper.

Secondary Markets: Bond turnover increased by another 0.38%to Kes.1.86Bn with 30 deals conducted. Infrastructure bonds accounted for the bulk of the activity accounting for 37.7% of the today’s activity with a turnover of Kes.700Mn.

Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s

Tenor Kenya Uganda Tanzania U.S LIBOR (USD)

91 Day 10.35% 9.69% 11.98% 0.09% 0.21%

182 Day 10.92% 14.68% 13.13% 0.14% 0.31%

1 Year 11.94% 13.93% 13.40% 0.18% 0.88%

2 Year 12.50% 14.84% 14.53% 0.30% --

5 Year 11.86% 12.16% 14.49% 0.72% --

10 Year 12.71% 15.28% 14.20% 1.71% --

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

4

Currency:

KES Recovers Losses…

Performance: The local currency was fairly stable in the day as it recorded gains against all

currencies but two in Table 8.The largest gains were 0.623% against the UGX and 0.46% in the

ZAR/KES pair. The losses were 0.15% against both the USD and TZS. The Euro dipped as the IMF

and the European Commission failed to agree on a long term plan to reduce Greece’s debt.

Table 8: Currency Rate

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the Know Sure Thing and Trading

Envelope indicators on the USDKES currency pair over a one year period. They both signify an

improvement in the volatility of the currency pair due to the tightening policy adopted by the

government in 2011 extended in the current year.

Currency Pair 12thNov 2012 13thNov 2012

USD/KES 85.40 85.53

GBP/KES 135.86 135.75

EUR/KES 108.67 108.51

ZAR/KES 9.81 9.76

KES/UGX 30.21 30.40

KES/TZS 18.68 18.65

INR/KES 1.56 1.56

Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

Estimates

Daily Market Note

5

Genghis Index:

D

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Indicator Previous Current % Change

Price Index Performance (%) 0.93% 0.02% N/A

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 1013.685 1013.615 -0.01%

No. of Shares Traded (000) 12,270 25,724 109.64%

P/E Ratio 10.52x 10.52x N/A

Indicator Previous Current % Change

Price Index Performance (%) 0.87% 0.01% N/A

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 147.485 146.943 -0.37%

No. of Shares Traded (000) 11,052 1,817 -83.56%

P/E Ratio 7.01x 6.96x N/A

Indicator Previous Current % Change

Price Index Performance 0.04% -0.45% N/A

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 12.607 12.563 -0.35%

No. of Shares Traded (000) 70 152 118.08%

P/E Ratio 12.57x 12.53X N/A

Genghis Large-Cap Index

Genghis Mid-Cap Index

Genghis Small-Cap Index

Source: Genghis Capital

Large-Cap Index

The index gained 0.02% with Market Capitalisation

holding steady at Kes.1.013Bn.

The best performing counter in this segment was

KenGen Ltd (NSE: KEGN) up 2.58%.

Losing by the biggest margin was Barclays Bank of

Kenya Ltd (NSE: BBK) down 2.93%.

Mid-Cap Index

The Index gained to close at 0.01% over yesterday’s

close as Market Capitalisation decreased to

Kes.146Bn.

This section’s best performer for the daywas East

Africa Portland Cement Co. Ltd (NSE: PORT) up 8.98%.

Losing by the biggest margin was Carbacid

Investments Ltd (NSE: CARB) down 8.00%.

Small-Cap Index

Price performance had a 0.45% decline as Market

Capitalization decreased to Kes.12.56Bn.

Gaining by the biggest margin was Kakuzi Ltd (NSE:

KUKZ) up 1.43%.

Losing by the biggest margin was Sameer Africa Ltd

(NSE: FIRE) shedding 2.82%.

Daily Market Note

6

Total Mkt Cap. Dividend

Shares Outstanding Kshs Mn. Yield - %

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 40,000,000,000 188,000,000,000 7,261,300 -2.08% 0.32 0.22 14.69 4.68%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 790,774,356 191,367,394,152 1,083,200 0.00% 13.46 8.75 17.98 3.62%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 3,702,777,020 90,718,036,990 4,528,400 1.03% 2.79 1.00 8.78 4.08%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50 5,431,536,000 80,386,732,800 2,278,500 -0.67% 1.49 1.50 9.93 10.14%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 362,959,275 63,880,832,400 300 0.00% 14.44 10.00 12.19 5.68%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 287,077,133 66,314,817,723 3,300 0.43% 19.75 11.00 11.70 4.76%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 3,492,369,900 43,654,623,750 793,100 -0.40% 1.53 0.40 8.17 3.20%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 2,950,259,818 88,507,794,540 1,226,100 0.00% 3.72 1.85 8.06 6.17%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50 2,198,361,456 21,763,778,414 290,200 -0.50% 1.28 0.60 7.73 6.06%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00 100,000,000 46,200,000,000 800 -0.65% 30.98 30.50 14.91 6.60%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50 157,118,572 36,294,390,132 13,900 1.32% 12.70 8.00 18.19 3.46%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 273,684,211 10,536,842,124 14,100 -0.65% 5.99 0.00 6.43 0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 461,615,483 5,493,224,248 153,400 1.71% 3.58 0.25 3.32 2.10%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 1,530,000,000 8,415,000,000 7,611,200 -4.35% 1.32 0.50 4.17 9.09%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 163,037,108 19,401,415,852 111,400 -0.83% 13.58 1.70 8.76 1.43%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 633,024,000 11,615,990,400 1,544,000 -0.27% 2.16 0.45 8.50 2.45%

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 99,055,000 21,693,045,000 400 -1.35% 11.63 2.00 18.83 0.91%

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 358,997,784 15,077,906,928 42,200 0.00% 6.72 0.50 6.25 1.19%

1,009,321,825,453 26,955,800 -0.40% 8.19 4.40 10.48 4.20%

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50 604,947,068 7,561,838,350 3,241,200 0.00% 1.79 0.00 6.98 0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05 1,471,761,200 21,782,065,760 392,900 1.02% 2.21 1.00 6.70 6.76%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 284,789,128 18,368,898,756 62,500 4.03% 2.55 0.70 25.29 1.09%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 280,000,000 5,334,000,000 1,226,100 0.26% 3.19 0.40 5.97 2.10%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00 90,000,000 3,982,500,000 8,900 -2.75% 6.24 0.50 7.09 1.13%

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 148,210,640 5,706,109,640 2,200 -1.91% 4.51 1.30 8.54 3.38%

Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 54,450,000 9,256,500,000 9,200 -1.73% 33.00 4.50 5.15 2.65%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 582,709,440 7,866,577,440 0 0.00% -0.31 0.00 -43.55 0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 600,000,000 7,320,000,000 57,500 -1.21% 3.19 0.35 3.82 2.87%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 235,750,000 3,536,250,000 135,700 0.00% 2.70 1.20 5.56 8.00%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 175,028,706 2,424,147,578 35,900 0.00% 3.05 0.00 4.54 0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 33,980,265 3,907,730,475 0 0.00% 8.89 5.00 12.94 4.35%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 96,000,000 3,720,000,000 200 -3.13% 2.31 1.00 16.77 2.58%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 253,125,000 2,822,343,750 12,000 -0.89% 1.15 1.00 9.70 8.97%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 208,084,296 957,187,762 3,112,200 0.00% 0.53 0.00 8.68 0.00%

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 74,059,026 1,740,387,111 0 0.00% 2.96 0.00 7.94 0.00%

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10 2,150,000,000 13,545,000,000 317,500 0.80% -1.09 0.15 -5.78 2.38%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00 2,179,615,440 7,846,615,584 1,536,700 0.00% 0.27 0.09 17.04 1.96%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 265,424,636 5,215,594,097 315,300 2.88% 1.47 0.00 13.37 0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS 273,950,284 6,163,881,390 11,000 0.00% 1.23 0.25 18.29 1.11%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00 515,270,364 3,426,547,921 48,500 -3.62% 1.84 0.00 3.61 0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 228,055,500 2,713,860,450 58,000 0.42% 1.72 1.00 6.92 8.40%

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 19,525,446 2,206,375,398 100 0.00% 7.71 6.80 14.66 6.02%

147,404,411,462 10,583,600 -0.32% 3.96 1.10 6.97 2.77%

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 278,342,393 974,198,376 127,200 1.45% 0.35 0.20 10.00 5.71%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 8,756,320 1,742,507,680 1,300 -0.50% 93.74 57.50 2.12 28.89%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00 19,599,999 1,391,599,929 72,200 0.00% 28.06 3.75 2.53 5.28%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 60,000,000 1,110,000,000 2,200 0.27% 7.79 1.10 2.37 5.95%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 22,279,616 534,710,784 0 0.00% 7.78 0.55 3.08 2.29%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 75,708,873 1,003,142,567 2,700 0.38% 2.81 0.75 4.72 5.66%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 23,727,000 901,626,000 0 0.00% 5.44 1.25 6.99 3.29%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 210,000,000 346,500,000 9,700 3.12% -0.59 - -2.80 0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS 16,078,500 397,942,875 400 -4.81% 1.36 1.25 18.20 5.05%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 5,728,314 2,033,551,470 3,241,200 -0.56% 6.12 4.00 58.01 1.13%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS 58,500,000 585,000,000 0 0.00% 2.33 1.50 4.29 15.00%

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS 3,912,000 489,000,000 0 1.00% 19.93 7.50 6.27 6.00%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS 1,200,000 516,000,000 0 0.00% 33.70 7.50 12.76 1.74%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 35,403,790 130,994,023 1,400 -2.63% -6.47 - -0.57 0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 40,000,000 144,000,000 10,200 -6.49% 0.38 0.10 9.47 2.78%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14,393,106 204,382,105 100 1.43% -11.80 - -1.20 0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 12,868,124 38,604,372 0 0.00% 0.04 - 75.00 0.00%

12,543,760,181 3,468,600 -0.43% 11.23 5.11 12.43 5.22%

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT EPS DPS P/EPrice Change Total Shares Traded

Daily Market Note

7

Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com Report By: Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com

Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: cmatu@genghis-capital.com Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: gweru@genghis-capital.com

George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com

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