Generating capacities in the Baltics

– way forward

Siim Paist

Huge wind resource potential in the Baltic region

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Baltic wind speeds: 2 500 –

3 000 full load hours per year

Relatively sparsely populated

areas

Potential for offshore

development: shallow waters

and smooth sandy seabed

Baltic region has some good

and really good offshore

development areas – where

the wind is good, the distance

from shore and water depth is

not too much

Baltic offshore: 2 000 TWh of potential

3

Technical potential Offshore wind power Golden Sites

Source: BASREC (Baltic Sea Region Energy Co-

operation) Conditions for deployment of wind power in

the Baltic sea region

Estonian offshore potential

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The Swedish University of Uppsala, Institute for Meteorology made the Model calculations

of wind energy potential at 103 m above sea level.The results indicated, that coastal sites

of Estonian Part of Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga and Saaremaa and Hiiumaa in the west

had the best wind potential, where the wind speed was between 9.01 to 9.25 m/s in

average.

Estonian offshore potential

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Hiiumaa Offshore

Nelja Energia

700 MW-1100 MW

Neugrund

Neugrund OÜ

190MW

Gulf of Riga

Eesti Energia

600-800 MW

Evolution of installed wind capacity

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142 149 184 269 294

650 60 60

416

91 163

179

225 275

500

24 27 60 74 106

135 159 261

343 394

554 629

1 566

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Nelja Energia

+ 937 MW onshore 471MW

offshore 466 MW

RE action plans

MW

of which

250 MW

offshore

of which

180 MW

offshore

Energy sources in the Baltics

* Net production is gross production less power plants’ own consumption

** Gross consumption includes grid losses

Three distinctive modes of electricity generation

Electricity generation split, 2012

Oilshale 81%

Biomass 8%

Shale oil gas 4%

Wind 4% Gas

1%

Other 2%

Hydro 47%

Gas 26%

Wind 1%

Biomass 1%

Other 3%

Import 22%

Gas 25%

Hydro 8%

Wind 4%

Heavy oil 2%

Biomass 2%

Other 2%

Import 57%

Baltic power market:

• Gross production: 23,2 TWh

• Net production*: 19,4 TWh

• Gross consumption**: 25,5 TWh

• Net Import: 6,1 TWh

Gas 17%

Oilshale 33%

Hydro 16%

Biomass 4%

Wind 4%

Other 5%

Import 21%

Power generation mix in 2020 & 2030 in the Baltics

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EA Energy Analysis: wind to generate 43% of power by 2030

Wind energy

10%

Other 90%

Wind energy

32%

Other 68%

Wind energy

14%

Other 86%

Wind energy

23%

Other 77%

Wind energy

60%

Other 40%

2020 2030

Wind energy

20%

Other 80%

Source: EA Energy Analysis

Onshore wind: the cheapest generation by 2020

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70 EUR/MWh

Result of LIT

tender in 2013

Leveraged cost of generating electricity in 2020

Source: EA Energy Analysis. CO2 price of 22 EUR/ton is assumed in 2020. 6000 full load hours assumed for condensing plants

Baltic offshore

First-class wind conditions with

gross load factors of 45%-50%

More stable wind compared to the

North Sea

Much lower waves: more time for

service

Less salty water

Favorable geological conditions

Shallow waters

Smooth seabed, no rocks

Easy access to ports

Ice proof-foundation - gravity

based foundation 10

Source: EnBW Erneuerbare Energien GmbH

Baltic offshore

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Factors that affect the

offshore wind power price

North sea Baltic sea

Distance from the shore Long Medium/ near shore

Depth 20 – 40 m 5 – 25 m

Tidal Yes No

Waves High, up to 6,5m Low, average near Vilsandi 0,6 m,

6 m wave possible once in 40 years

Wind class IECI IEC I/II

Saltiness High Low

Temperature -10 ... +30 C -30 .... +30 C

Ice No Yes

Wind turbine design Offshore turbine Semi-offshore, cold climate version

Baltic offshore: cheaper offshore energy

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Hiiumaa

project

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Diagram of co-electrolysis of CO2 and H2O in a solid oxide cell, as part of a

renewable fuel cycle

C. Graves et al. / Solid State Ionics 192 (2011) 398–403.

Electrolysis of water into hydrogen- storage into gas

Electrolysis of water is

the decomposition of

water (H2O) into oxygen

(O2) and hydrogen gas

(H2) due to an electric

current being passed

through the water.

ENERTRAG: Hybrid power plant

14 Germany Trade & Invest http://www.gtai.com/energystorage

This innovative system allows the operation of a stabilized electricity grid

entirely powered by renewable energies. It also supplies hydrogen for mobility

applications, as well as heat for local district heating.

Hydro pump storage power plant

Pump storage technology combines traditional pumped storage

hydro-electric power generation with deep mining technique

Ideal solution for balancing of wind farms and as a reserve

capacity station due to short start-up times

Concept Positive impact on the environment

Realisation of the hydro pump storage would allow reducing

production of energy from fossil fuel, meaning significant

reduction of CO2 emissions

Hydro pump storage with contemplated capacity of 500 MW

would allow 1,5 TWh production of wind energy per annum

No CO2 emissions and no related expenses

No reliance on imported resources, no gas, oil etc

Preliminary design

Upper reservoir

Lower reservoir

Maintenance

tunnel

High pressure

pipe

Low pressure pipe

Turbines

Electrical grid

tunnel Lift

Management

centre

Sub-station Entrance to

maintenance

tunnel

Thank you!

siim.paist@neljaenergia.ee

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