Science versus pseudoscience

General AstronomyPseudosciences1Why is this in Astronomy?This course has a very wide range of studentsIt covers Freshman to Seniors Art History to Health Science to Physics to UndecidedFor many of you, this is your only hardcore physical science

This is an opportunity to give you some of the critical thinking tools needed to keep you from getting scammed in the name of Science.What is Science? Science refers to a system of acquiring knowledge. This system uses observation and experimentation to describe and explain natural phenomena. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.

Science is:Observable TestableFalsifiableRepeatableNatural

Whats a Pseudoscience? A discipline or approach that pretends to be or has a close resemblance to science, but isnt: Observable TestableFalsifiableRepeatableNatural

Arent subject to rigorous testing. Assert they are scientific (but arent). The really bad ones pretend to be a religion in addition.Lack empirical evidence to support theirPseudoscienceCrackpots, Fads and FallaciesThere are always individuals or groups who use what appears to be science (or religion) to mask some very odd ideas.Some are actual beliefsSome are scamsNone are science5The Top 10 most believed in pseudosciences are: 10. Extra-sensory perception (ESP) 9. Haunted houses 8. Ghosts (Anne Boleyn, et al) 7. Telepathy 6. Clairvoyance 5. Astrology 4. Communication with the dead 3. Witches 2. Reincarnation 1. Channeling(Demonic possession is on the decline.) Some old PseudosciencesFlat EarthHollow Earth Old Version New VersionAstrologySpiritualism- Ghosts, Elves, FairiesThe OccultSpeaking to the DeadDowsingThings that go bump in the nightVampiresLycanthropyZombiesBigfoot (Sasquatch/Yeti)Trolls, Goblins and the 'Monster Under the Bed'

7Hollow Earth

The Old Version

The 'New' Version

And some newUFOs Alien Abduction Area 51Crop CirclesCreationismIntelligent DesignScientologyHuman/Animal Psychics CommunicatorsSpeaking to the Dead (theyre back)

HomeopathyMagnetic water, anyone?HeadOnCold FusionTeleRemoteViewingN-WavesNascaFeng ShuiAnti-vaccinationMagnetic braceletsJunk Science9In a classic experiment that has been repeated many times in many different contexts, Bertran Forer gave a personality test to his students, ignored their answers, and gave each student an "evaluation" he had taken from a newsstand astrology column. He asked his students to evaluate the evaluation from 0 to 5, with "5" meaning the recipient felt the evaluation was an "excellent" assessment and "4" meaning the assessment was "good." The class average evaluation was 4.26. That was in 1948. The test has been repeated hundreds of time with psychology students and the average is still around 4.2. We might translate this to mean that it is quite common for people to be given strings of statements that are not based on any knowledge of the person and yet they commonly rate the statements as something like 80% accurate. Similar experiments have been done with phony biorhythm charts, graphology readings, astrological charts, and who knows what else. --Skepdics Dictionary"9944100% Pure: It Floats" This description of Ivory Soap is a classic example of Junk Science from the 19th century. Not only is the term "pure" meaningless when applied to an undefined mixture such as bath soap, but the implication that its ability to float is evidence of this purity is deceptive. The low density is achieved by beating air bubbles into it, actually reducing the "purity" of the product and in a sense cheating the consumer.A Closer Look: Crop CirclesThey started pretty simple

Then got a bit fancier11And fancierA Closer Look: Crop Circles

Til they don't need circles anymore12A Closer Look: Crop Circles

AmazingSpookyWeird!Alien Technology in action! Or a guy with a rope and apiece of 4x4 plywood13A Closer Look: Nasca

14A Closer Look: Anti-VaccinationIn 2000, measles was declared eliminated in the United States.The anti-vaccine movement has managed to breathe life into nearly vanquished childhood diseases: measles, mumps, rubella, or chickenpox, pertussis (whooping cough)Lets just look at measles

Looks itchy It is!Do Vaccines help?You decide

Anti-Vaccination Effects

So What started this?In 1998, Dr. Andrew Wakefield published an article supposedly linking the MMR vaccine and autism.

In 2010, Lancet retracted the article. Why?An investigation published by the British medical journal BMJ concluded the study's author, Dr. Andrew Wakefield, misrepresented or altered the medical histories of all 12 of the patients whose cases formed the basis of the 1998.Most of his co-authors withdrew their names from the study in 2004 after learning he had been paid by a law firm that intended to sue vaccine makers.Britain stripped Wakefield of his medical license He has moved to Texas and has a following there.How did anti-vax get rolling?Celebrity help of course. Like a lot of fads a big name has some importance to people who forget they are not experts in the field they are supporting.Jenny McCarthy, Katie Couric, Michelle Bachmann have swallowed the nonsense and pushed it outAll have medical degrees and are able to think critically about detailed scientific results! (Not!)As a result we are losing the herd immunityLearn to think critically (before you give up eating bacon try to think about the fact that the anti-bacon spokesperson is Porky Pig).A Closer Look: UFOs

20Gort! Klaatu barada nikto!

21Close Encounters Of The Jersey Kind?

MORRISTOWN, N.J. (CBS) Click to enlarge Strange lights were seen hovering over Morris County in New Jersey on Jan. 5, 2009. CBS

"Red lights in the sky over the Morristown-Morris Township area, 5 red lights in a weird pattern over the area," one viewer wrote.

"The formation of 5 lights were first noticed over Cedar Knolls and then as they approached the Madison/Morris Township border the rear half of the formation slowly faded and appeared to drop from the sky and then the front part of the formation went out one by one," wrote anotherNothing more than a prank, roadside flares attached to helium balloons.22Kenneth A. Arnold a private pilot made what is generally considered the first widely reported UFO sighting in the United States.On June 24, 1947, Arnold said he saw nine unusual objects flying in a chain near Mount Rainier, Washington while he was searching for a missing military aircraft. He described the objects as almost blindingly bright when they reflected the sun's rays, their flight as "erratic" ("like the tail of a Chinese kite"), and flying at "tremendous speed". Kenneth Arnold hadn't reported seeing flying saucers.In a memoir of the incident for the First International UFO Congress in 1977 Arnold revealed the flying saucer label arose because of a "great deal of misunderstanding" on the part of the reporter who wrote the story up for the United Press. Bill Bequette asked him how the objects flew and Arnold answered that, "Well, they flew erratic, like a saucer if you skip it across the water." The intent of the metaphor was to describe the motion of the objects not their shape. Arnold stated the objects "were not circular."A Closer Look: UFOs23Better protect your thoughts

A Closer Look: UFOs

24The Cottingley FairiesA Closer Look: Fairies

In 1917, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle saw photographs some young girls took in the glen behind their home of themselves in the company of fairies.He wrote to the girls and to their father for permission to speak to the girls, aged 10 and 14, to question them about their experiences and for use of the photos for a book he was writing proving the existence of Fairies.25The Cottingley Fairies

What convinced Conan Doyle?

It wouldn't have convinced Sherlock Holmes!26The World didnt end December 2012!Doomsday rumors had been proliferating, fueled by recent books, shows, and films

Most rumors cited the end of the Mayan long count calendar in December 21, 2012

Doomsday scenarios included:Collision of a rogue planet with Earth Violent solar stormsSudden violent shifting of continents and polesSudden reversal of Earths magnetic fieldGalactic alignmentArtist rendition of two planets undergoing a catastrophic collision. Such collisions do happen in planetary systems, but are highly unlikely after the system has formed.

Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick Schneider dpsdisc@aas.org - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 200927The Mayan long calendar did partly reset, but the world did not endLike New Years (when both day & month reset), 13 (of at least 20) Mayan time increments reset in 2012The Mayans recorded recurring astronomical events tied to the Sun, Moon, and visible planets - but did not predict natural disasters or undiscovered astronomical objects

There is no known Planet X that will impact Earth in the near futureA few Pluto-like dwarf planets have been discovered in our outer solar system recently, but none have orbits that bring them inside ~35 AUA planet headed toward Earth would be easily visibleConspiracies in astronomy are unlikely, especially given the large number of skilled amateurs (who regularly pioneer new discoveries)

Other doomsday scenarios are similarly far-fetched, or based on poor scienceNo!Artists conception of dwarf planet Eris. From NASA / ESA / A. Schaller

Photo of a Mayan long count calendarPrepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick Schneider dpsdisc@aas.org - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 200928The Big PictureMany of these doomsday scenarios are not new, but have been recycled for many years

Ancient (and modern) astronomers could not predict the future, beyond repeated events (e.g. lunar cycles, eclipses, planetary positions) based on observations

One advantage of studying science at any level is that one learns how to think critically about any topic, such as the 2012 rumorsMovie poster for 2012, released in November 2009. The movie features worldwide tectonic activity and natural disasters, triggered by the Sun.

Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick Schneider dpsdisc@aas.org - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 200929For More InformationWeb Resources and Press ReleasesAstronomy Society of the Pacific - Astronomy Beat on-line column on 2012 by David Morrisonhttp://www.astrosociety.org/2012/index.htmlNASA Lunar Science Institute - Video by David Morrison - The Truth about 2012http://www.vimeo.com/7463829NASA - 11/06/09 - 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End?http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.htmlNational Geographic News - 2012: Six End-of-the-World Myths Debunkedhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-end-of-world-myths.html

ImagesSlide 1 image from NASA / JPL-Caltech http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/spitzer/multimedia/spitzer-20090810.htmlSlide 2 Mayan calendar photo from Wikipedia user Maunus, released to public domain http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lamojarra-inscription.jpgSlide 2 Eris image from NASA / ESA / A. Schaller (STScI) http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/2006/16/image/aSlide 3 image from Sony Pictures 2012 Official Website http://www.whowillsurvive2012.com/Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick Schneider dpsdisc@aas.org - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 200930So.Can all this stuff be TRUE?31When pigs fly!!

32This says it all

33Why do people believe this stuff?Anecdotal (Testimonial) evidenceTestimonials and vivid anecdotes are one of the most popular and convincing forms of evidence presented for beliefs in the supernatural, paranormal, and pseudoscientific.Nevertheless, testimonials and anecdotes in such matters are of little value in establishing the probability of the claims they are put forth to support.Anecdotes are unreliable for various reasons. Stories are prone to contamination by beliefs, later experiences, feedback, selective attention to details, and so on. Most stories get distorted in the telling and the retelling. Events get exaggerated. Time sequences get confused. Details get muddled. Stories of personal experience with paranormal or supernatural events have little scientific value. If others cannot experience the same thing under the same conditions, then there will be no way to verify the experience. If there is no way to test the claim made, then there will be no way to tell if the experience was interpreted correctly.

34Wishful thinking Interpreting facts, reports, events, perceptions, etc., according to what one would like to be the case rather than according to the actual evidence. Communal reinforcement The process by which a claim becomes a strong belief through repeated assertion by members of a community. The process is independent of whether the claim has been properly researched or is supported by empirical data significant enough to warrant belief by reasonable people.Mass media contributes to the process by uncritically supporting the claims. Often, however, the mass media provides tacit support for untested and unsupported claims by saying nothing skeptical about even the most outlandish of claims. Celebrities pushing the nonsenseBecause a person is a talented actor, singer, or just a celebrity doesnt mean that they are experts in the fieldWhy do people believe this stuff?35Confirmation bias A type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs. A tendency to do this over time unjustifiably strengthens your belief in the relationship.Self-deceptionThe process or fact of misleading ourselves to accept as true or valid what is false or invalid. Self-deception, in short, is a way we justify false beliefs to ourselves.Have you watched some of the first auditions on American Idol? Why do people believe this stuff?36A Guide for Identifying the Idiots Do they publish?Don't Confuse me with the facts!Simple answers to complex questions.Playing the UnderdogConspiracy Theories Playing on fear and/or emotion Do they research? Is the hypothesis at risk? 'Scientific' buzzwords37Don't Confuse me with the facts!Ignore, deny or interpret the facts in such a way that the hypothesis seems true.

Remember our friends, the Flat Earthers?38Simple answers to complex questionsThe Universe is rather large.Nature is complex and wonderful.Therefore, trivial explanations are always suspect.Creationists note that the Hubble Space Telescope' can see to the beginnings of the Universe.' So if there is a beginning, then it must be the Beginning that they promote.Nice and simple, but not a proofThe pseudosciences nearly always point to the gaps in our knowledge

39'Scientific' BuzzwordsBeware of ads, etc., using fancy wording such as:QuantumVibrationsEssenceZero-cost energy (free energy)AuraFor exampleThis magnificent product will sense your personal quantum vibration and induce a harmonic which will balance your essence, bringing your meridianal pathways into a natural, soothing alignment rejecting dissonance clearing your auraand curing your hangover, athlete's foot and halitosis?40Playing the Underdog"I'm just like Galileo, the establishment is persecuting me for my ideas."

Yeah, right.41Conspiracy TheoriesThe __________ is conspiring to hide the TRUTH from the publicGovernmentChurchBig BusinessMysterious CabalsAliens???Insert from list42Conspiracy TheoriesThere's nothing the media and the scientific world like better than to blow the lid off some deep, dark secrets.

This would make the reporter or scientist world famous.

If someone is trying to hide something, someone else is trying to expose it!43Playing on fear and/or emotionHow many of you have hesitated just a bit before throwing out that chain letter that threatened Bad Luck if you broke the chain?

Or did you send it to 10 friends?

Use of emotional, religious, or other beliefs44Is the hypothesis at risk?If the hypothesis is not at risk; where you can, at least in principle, find a way to prove it wrong, then it is not a science.

45And finallyDo they do research?Are you kidding?

Do they publish?Only for the public and themselves ('Preaching to the choir')Heavy propagandaObscure references46The Scientific Method

and not so scientificReal ScienceRevolutionary theories like the Special and General Theories of Relativity and Quantum Theory which change our way of thinking are few and far between. Usually these come about by an experiment showing things which defy explanation by the existing theories. Even then, the old theories are not lost, they simply have their applicable range better defined

Classical Mechanics [Slow] Special Relativity [Fast]Gravitation [moderate mass] General Relativity [Huge mass]Classical Physics [macroscopic] Quantum Physics [atomic]

They still work, just in their proper realm."The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found it!) but 'That's funny ...' " Isaac Asimov 48And NowPresenting Wackos On The WebFrom the far reaches of the Globe For your entertainment, education and amusment

49(Selected) Wackos On The Webwww.onelight.comwww.trvuniversity.comwww.zetatalk.comwww.dowsers.orgwww.paoweb.com/umacexp.htmwww.marlana.orgwww.synergyforlife.commypage.direct.ca/j/jliving/landmine.htmwww.angeltherapy.com/www.sonyafitzpatrick.com/www.jacquelinestallone.comwww.remedydevices.comwww.tfes.org

50Antidotes to IdiocyDebunkers and Skeptics:www.randi.orgwww.doubtfulnews.comwww.quackwatch.orgwww.badastronomy.comwww.skepticreport.com/general/index.htmwww.csicop.orgwww.guardian.co.uk/life/badscience/www.skepdic.comwww.skepchick.orgwww.whatstheharm.netwww.senseaboutscience.org.ukFinding the Kooks:www.crank.nethome.swbell.net/drt1/pseudo.html51