ge shipping feb 14 presentation

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1 The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd. Business & Financial Review February 2014

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Page 1: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

11

The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.

Business & Financial Review

February 2014

Page 2: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

22

Forward Looking StatementsExcept for historical information, the statements made in this presentationconstitute forward looking statements. These include statements regarding theintent, belief or current expectations of GE Shipping and its managementregarding the Company’s operations, strategic directions, prospects and futureresults which in turn involve certain risks and uncertainties.

Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those containedin the forward looking statements; including changes in freight rates; globaleconomic and business conditions; effects of competition and technologicaldevelopments; changes in laws and regulations; difficulties in achieving costsavings; currency, fuel price and interest rate fluctuations etc.

The Company assumes no responsibility with regard to publicly amending,modifying or revising the statements based on any subsequent developments,information or events that may occur.

Page 3: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

33

Corporate Profile

Through subsidiaryGreatship (India) Limited

Shipping Business Offshore Business

Dry bulk

Crude Tankers Product Tankers - Logistics

The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.Incorporated in 1948

Wet bulk

- Drilling

Page 4: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

44

Company at a glance

India’s largest private sector Shipping Company Diverse asset base with global operations Completed 65 years of operations 29 years of uninterrupted dividend track record

Shareholding Pattern as on December 31, 2013

Promoters30%

Public 23%

FIIs25%

Govt/FI16%

Bodies Corporate

6%

Page 5: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

55

Shipping business-owned fleet

30 ships aggregating 2.42 Mn dwt, avg.age 10.0 years

22 Tankers avg.age 10.52 years

- 8 Crude carriers (4 Suezmax, 4 Aframax) avg.age 11.2 years

- 13 Product tankers (4 LR1, 8 MR, 1 GP) avg.age 8.5 years

- 1 LPG Carrier (1 VLGC) avg. age 24.0 years

8 Dry bulk carriers avg.age 8.5 years

- 1 Capesize - avg.age 18.0 years

- 3 Kamsarmax - avg.age 3.0 years

- 4 Supramax- avg.age 7.3 years

Page 6: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Shipping business- CAPEX plan

6

Newbuilding:

- 1 Medium Range (MR) Product Tanker with STX Group - expected delivery Q4FY16

- 2 Kamsarmax Dry Bulk Carriers with Tsuneishi Shipbuilding - expected delivery H1FY16

- 3 Kamsarmax Dry Bulk Carriers with Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding Co. Ltd, China -expected delivery Q2 & Q3 CY2016.

Secondhand

- 1 Very Large Gas Carrier (1994 built)- expected delivery H1FY15

Total committed CAPEX: ~ USD 205 mn

Page 7: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Asset Price Movement (5 yr old)- Tankers

7

Timeline- Jan 2001 till Jan 2014

Amt in US$ mn

Source: Clarkson

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

VLCC Suezmax MR

Page 8: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Asset Price Movement (5 yr old) – Dry Bulk

8

Timeline- Jan 2001 till Jan 2014

Amt in US$ mn

Source: Clarkson

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Capesize Panamax Supramax

Page 9: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Asset Price Movement

9

(Amt in $mn) High Low Current

Tankers

VLCC 165 (2008)

49(1994)

68

Suezmax 105 (2008)

32 (1993)

47

MR 46 (2007)

20 (1999)

29

Dry Bulk

Capesize 155 (2008)

25 (1999)

46

Panamax 92(2007)

14 (1999)

27

Supramax 75(2007)

13 (1998)

26

Source: Clarkson

20 year High /Low: (5 year old assets)

Page 10: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

BDTI & BCTI Movement (Jan 2001 to Feb 2014)

10

- Sluggish demand & steady fleet growth keeping the TCYs low- Seasonal uptick in BDTI led by Winter demand and Chinese SPR program

Source: Baltic Exchange

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

BDTI BCTI

Page 11: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

11

Global Oil Demand Scenario

Source: Clarkson/IEA

Global Oil demand growth Region wise demand growth

Muted growth from developed economies….Non OECD countries making up for the lost demand

2.3%

3.6%

1.6%1.3%

1.6%

-0.6%

-1.2%

2.9%

1.0%1.1%1.0%1.2%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

mn.bpd 2011 20122013 (E)

2014 (E)

% chg(CY14 over

CY13)

N.America 24.1 23.8 23.8 23.8 -

OECD Europe 14.3 13.8 13.5 13.4 (0.7)%

OECD Pacific (Japan & Korea) 8.1 8.5 8.4 8.3 (1.2)%

Asia (Non - OECD) 20.3 21 21.6 22.4 3.7%

Other Non OECD 22.1 22.7 23.5 24 2.1%

Total 88.9 89.9 90.8 91.9 1.2%

Page 12: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Oil Trade – Changing patterns...

12

Resulting in long haul trade routes…

Oil supply dynamics changing

US – Shale revolutionIran – Uncertainty on SanctionsNorth Sea – Decreasing SupplyVenezuela – Diversifying Customer base West Africa – More takersAngola , Algeria –production inching upNigeria – increasingly unstable

of Refined Products

Oil demand sourcing matrix changing

China & India in forefrontLatin America – Increase in imports

of Refined Products

Other Market Developments

Increasing demand from India & ChinaPolitical Risk - MENA, Venezuela

Page 13: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

13

Products Trade…Continues to grow steadily

Global refinery crude distillation capacity set to rise by 9.5 mb/d from 2013 to 2018, Asia accounting for about 60% and M.E about 22%.

Total world refining capacity will reach 106.7 mb/d by the end of 2018, of which 60% will be in non-OECD countries.

US refining sector to benefit, due to increasing exports of distillates to Latin America and Europe.

Page 14: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Products trade… Evolving Trade Patterns

14

Page 15: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

BDI Movement (Jan 2001 to Feb 2014)

15

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

BDI hovering at low levels on back of relentless fleet growth despite steady improvement in the cargo movement

Source: Baltic Exchange

2008 marketcrash, BDI dropped by 94%

China announces $586 bn stimulus

Cargo growth but record NB deliveries

Page 16: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

16

Seaborne Bulk Trade … growing steadily

Source: Clarkson

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Iron Ore Coal Grains Minor Bulk

Contribution to seaborne trade growth by commodity

Global dry bulk seaborne trade reached 4.3 bn tons in 2013

Seaborne trade to grow at CAGR 5%between 2012 & 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(E)

Minor Bulk Grains Coal Iron Ore

Mn.tons

Page 17: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Dry Bulk Trade … Evolving Trade Patterns

17

China… imports to continue

-Iron ore & Coal imports running at a steady pace

- Coastal trade to firm up due to inland transport restrictions

India… catching up

-To be leading coal importer in the world

- Developing ports to specifically suit the trade

- UMPPs to create greater coal demand once commissioned

- Apart from Indonesia & S.Africa, China going far away to Colombia to source coal

- Larger parcel size moved from Brazil to China (Chinamaxes)

Long routes & bigger parcels

Page 18: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

China’s dependency on imported iron ore

18

CHINA: Iron ore import dependency has increased from37% in 2001 to 70% in 2012 and growing.

Main Import Drivers

Domestic Iron ore (Fe) content < 25% and declining.

Expensive domestic Cost of prodn. due to:

- Labor & energy cost Inflation has been 15% YoY

- Deep Underground iron ore mines: High strip ratio

- Energy & water intensive beneficiation process.

- Steel plants located in coastal areas; high transport cost.

Smaller firms will face closure, disproportionate import competition effect & tax regime in the wake of low prices.

Page 19: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

World Fleet Growth

19

(mn dwt) 2002 2007 2013 % change(2013 over 2002)

Dry 295 393 721 144%

Crude 222 280 364 63%

Product 74 106 138 86%

Fleet growth 2002-2013

Source: Clarkson

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Dry Bulk Crude Product

Mn.dwt

Page 20: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

2020

… Fleet continues to grow

World Fleet addition*

Fleet(as on 1st Feb’14)

CY2014 CY2015 CY2016+

(in mn dwt)

Crude tankers 364 5% 3% 4%

Product tankers 139 6% 4% 4%

Dry bulk carriers 728 9% 6% 4%

*includes only new building from yards

Source: Clarkson

… but high slippages may happen

Page 21: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

2121

Scrapping… too little to cheer

Source: Clarkson

Fleet as on 1st Feb’14 Scrapping CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013

(in mn dwt)

364 Crude 2% 2% 3% 2.5%

139 Product 4% 2% 2% 2%

728 Bulk 1% 4% 5% 3%

* As of 1st Feb’14

Require acceleration in scrapping to minimize the demand supply mismatch

Scrapping as % of world fleet (year wise)

Page 22: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Global Shipbuilding… Shrinkage in Capacity

22

Capacity to contract due to combination of: yard closures

return to pre-boom business models such as ship repairs

use of shipbuilding berths and workforces for non-shipbuilding activity

reduction in berth productivity

Page 23: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Global Shipbuilding… Shrinkage in Capacity

23

Yard Output (mn.gt)

Yard output to decline from a peak of 49 mn gt in 2010 to 32 mn gt in 2013…. A decline of 35%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013

2013 (e) yard capacity still higher than the pre boom capacity of 2006

Source: Industry/ research reports

Page 24: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Greatship (India) Limited(a 100% subsidiary)

24

Business & Financial Review

February 2014

Page 25: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

2525

Current Owned Fleet

3 Jack Up Rigs (350ft)

4 Platform Supply Vessels (PSV)

9 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessels (AHTSV)

2 Multipurpose Platform Supply and Support Vessels (MPSSV)

6 Platform / ROV Support Vessels (ROVSV)

Offshore business- Fleet ProfileThe Greatship Group

On Order: 1 Jackup Rig (350 ft) – expected delivery in CY2015

Page 26: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

26

Greatship’s Modern & Technologically Advanced Fleet

- Higher utilization rates

- Minimum down time

- Higher utilization rates

- Minimum down timeRevenue

EfficienciesRevenue

Efficiencies

- Lower Operating costs

- Reduced maintenance capex & opex

- Lower Operating costs

- Reduced maintenance capex & opex

Cost Efficiencies

Cost Efficiencies

Young FleetYoung Fleet

Young fleet with an average age of approx. 4 years by FY 2013

Demand shifting to modern vessels, especially as safety becomes a major concern for oil companies

Technologically AdvancedTechnologically Advanced

Specialized/technologically advanced vessels equipped with DP I/DP II (Dynamic Positioning) and FiFi I (Fire Fighting) technologies

Equipped to operate in challenging environments

Efficient and versatile vessels

Page 27: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

27

Offshore Service Value Chain

ExplorationExploration DevelopmentDevelopment ProductionProduction

VesselsVessels

DescriptionDescription

Length of Typical Cycle

Length of Typical Cycle

- 3 to 5 years- 3 to 5 years - 2 to 4 years- 2 to 4 years - 5 to 55 years- 5 to 55 years

- Collection of survey data

- Analysis & interpretation

- Identification of oil & gas reserves

- Collection of survey data

- Analysis & interpretation

- Identification of oil & gas reserves

- Construction & installation of production platforms, pipelines & equipment

- Preparation for production

- Construction & installation of production platforms, pipelines & equipment

- Preparation for production

- Management of oil & gas production

- Operations & Maintenance

- Retrofit work

- Management of oil & gas production

- Operations & Maintenance

- Retrofit work

-AHTV, AHTSV, MPSSV, Tugs

- PSV/ Supply, Crewboats

- ROV Support Vessels

- Seismic survey & support hydrographic survey (for pipeline routes)

- Chase boats

-AHTV, AHTSV, MPSSV, Tugs

- PSV/ Supply, Crewboats

- ROV Support Vessels

- Seismic survey & support hydrographic survey (for pipeline routes)

- Chase boats

- AHTV, AHTSV, MPSSV, Tugs

- PSV/ Supply, Crewboats

- Derrick/ Crane Vessels

- Cable & pipe-lay vessels

- Heavy Lift Transport

- Offshore Dredgers

- Accommodation units

- AHTV, AHTSV, MPSSV, Tugs

- PSV/ Supply, Crewboats

- Derrick/ Crane Vessels

- Cable & pipe-lay vessels

- Heavy Lift Transport

- Offshore Dredgers

- Accommodation units

- AHTSV,

- PSV/ Supply

- MPSSV/ Production Support Vessels

- Emergency Rescue & Response Vessels

- Crewboats

- Accommodation units

- AHTSV,

- PSV/ Supply

- MPSSV/ Production Support Vessels

- Emergency Rescue & Response Vessels

- Crewboats

- Accommodation units

Page 28: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

E&P Activities – Steady Growth

28

Global E&P Spending

Source: DNB

- Global E&P spending to increase to ~$650bn in 2014

- Up 4% from 2013

- Global E&P spending to increase to ~$650bn in 2014

- Up 4% from 2013

- National Oil Companies remain the largest contributor to the E&P spending

- Energy security: key concern for every nation

- National Oil Companies remain the largest contributor to the E&P spending

- Energy security: key concern for every nation

2014 E&P spending breakup

E&P spending to remain at a healthy level on back of attractive oil prices and increased momentum of activities.

Page 29: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

2929

(Nos) Jackup Rigs AHTSVs PSV/Supply

Current Fleet 523 2,917 2,212

Orderbook 116 177 423

% of O/B to current fleet 22% 6% 19%

Source: Clarkson, Rigzone

Global Fleet Supply -Offshore

As of end Jan’14

~ Half of the world offshore vessel fleet is more than 22 years

Average age of existing jackup rig fleet is about 24 years

- With increased focus on safety and efficiency, utilization for modern assets expected to remain healthy

- Current world fleet profile skewed towards older fleet. Hence, replacement demand should remain strong

Page 30: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Q3 FY 2014

30

Page 31: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

3131

Q3FY 2014 Financial Highlights

Standalone ConsolidatedKey Figures

Q3FY'14 Q3FY'13 9MFY'14 (Amount in Rs. crs) Q3FY'14 Q3FY'13 9MFY'14Income Statement

415.43 548.15 1388.65 Revenue (including other income) 792.99 881.55 2551.60157.34 224.90 659.61 EBITDA (including other income) 360.62 441.51 1341.5313.13 75.13 217.42 Net Profit 101.50 191.84 507.11

Balance Sheet9742.29 9950.80 9742.29 Total Assets 15093.19 14407.43 15093.194886.98 5113.5 4886.98 Equity 6847.76 6417.59 6847.763544.83 3768.75 3544.83 Total Debt (Gross) 6688.23 6620.81 6688.23413.55 507.46 413.55 Long Term Debt (Net of Cash) 2658.51 2481.52 2658.51

Cash Flow148.39 160.81 402.75 From operating activities 450.48 188.36 1197.85(38.70) 192.16 (134.39) From investing activities (245.04) 63.53 (389.16)

(141.84) (143.08) (704.67) From financing activities (308.53) 120.26 (1,224.15)(32.15) 209.89 (436.31) Net cash inflow/(outflow) (103.09) 372.15 (415.46)

Page 32: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

3232

Q3FY 2014 Performance Highlights

Breakup of revenue days

Average TCY Details

Days (in %) Q3’FY14 Q3’FY13

Dry BulkSpot %Time %

62%38%

50%50%

TankersSpot %Time %

50%50%

47%53%

TotalSpot %Time %

53%47%

48%52%

Mix of Spot & Time

Revenue Days Q3’FY14 Q3’FY13

Owned Tonnage 2,598 3,144Inchartered Tonnage - 128Total Revenue Days 2,598 3,232

Total Owned Tonnage (mn.dwt) 2.42 2.60

Average (TCY $ per day) Q3’FY14 Q3’FY13 % Chg

Crude Carriers 13,957 15,888 (12)%

Product Carriers (Incl. Gas) 16,036 16,111 0%

Dry Bulk 13,407 11,708 (14.5)%

Page 33: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

Book Value & Net Asset Value (NAV) comparison

33

Consol. Book Value(Rs. Per share)

Consol. NAV(Rs. Per share)

December 2013 454 539September 2013 444 532June 2013 439 494March 2013 416 433

Last 4 quarters

Page 34: Ge Shipping Feb 14 Presentation

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