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Global Climate Change Prof J. Hicke GEOG 313/513 Fall 2016 Learning outcomes • understand mitigation and adaptation, and know the differences and interactions • describe ways of mitigating future climate change • understand the aspects of climate change preparedness planning (impacts, vulnerability, risk assessments, adaptation plans) • be aware of ethical issues about climate change, mitigation, and adaptation Section 10: Action

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Page 1: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2016

Learningoutcomes

• understandmitigationandadaptation,andknowthedifferencesandinteractions

• describewaysofmitigatingfutureclimatechange

• understandtheaspectsofclimatechangepreparednessplanning(impacts,vulnerability,riskassessments,adaptationplans)

• beawareofethicalissuesaboutclimatechange,mitigation,andadaptation

Section10:Action

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GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke

Section10:Action

Outline

10.1Mitigation

10.2Adaptation

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GlobalClimateChange 3 ProfJ.Hicke

“Thebenefitsofstrong,earlyactiononclimatechangeoutweighthecosts”

SternReview:TheEconomicsofClimateChange,2006

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GlobalClimateChange 4 ProfJ.Hicke

Existingpowertechnologiesusedwidely

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cattenom_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

hydroelectricgeothermal

nuclear

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GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke

Emergingpowertechnologies

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

solarwind

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GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke

InfographicaboutclimatechangefromWorldBank

www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/11/23/infographic-climate-change-latin-america-middle-east-central-asia

Page 7: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 7 ProfJ.Hicke

PathwaystostabilizingCO2emissions

PacalaandSocolow,Science,2004

Withexistingtechnologies,cansocietystabilizationCO2emissions?

Need7technologies,eachofwhichreducesemissionsin50yearsby1Gt C/year(a“wedge”).

(Now9areneededbecauseofnoactionsince2004.)

Page 8: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.HickePacala andSocolow,Science,2004

energyconservationandefficiency

fuelswitching,Ccapturestorage

15wedges:

alternativeenergysources

landmanagement

PathwaystostabilizingCO2emissions

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GlobalClimateChange 9 ProfJ.Hicke

Sum=6000MtCO2-eq/yrCurrentfossilfuel+cement emissions=34,000MtCO2/yr

Mitigationoptionsinagriculture

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

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GlobalClimateChange 10 ProfJ.Hicke

In2030

Mitigationoptionsinagriculture

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

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GlobalClimateChange 11 ProfJ.Hicke

Currentfossilfuel+cementemissions=34

GtCO2/yr

CumulativeCby2050andby2100

Mitigationoptionsinforestry

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

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GlobalClimateChange 12 ProfJ.Hicke

Currentfossilfuel+cement emissions=34GtCO2/yr

CumulativeCO2by2055

Mitigationoptionsinforestry:avoideddeforestation

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

Page 13: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Geoengineering possibilities

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GlobalClimateChange 14 ProfJ.Hicke

Section10:Action

Outline

10.1Mitigation

10.2Adaptation

Page 15: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.HickeGlicketal.2011

whetherorhowasystemisaffectedbyachangein

climate

howmuchclimatechangeasystemwillexperience abilityto

minimizeimpact

riskassessment,adaptationplantominimizeeffect

susceptibilityofasystemtoadverseeffectsfromclimate

change

Climatechangeimpactandvulnerabilityassessments

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GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeGlicketal.2011

Example:buildingA/Cturn-oninspring

turnonA/Cwhendailymaximumtemperature

exceeds62ºF

springtemperaturewillincreaseby5ºFby

2030 shortterm:turnonA/Cearlier

longterm:buildingmodifi-cations

low(butcostly)

turn-ondaywilladvancebythree

weeks

riskassessment,adaptationplantominimizeeffect

Page 17: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 17 ProfJ.Hicke

• identifyaspectsofINLthatcouldbeaffectedbyclimatechange

• quantifyhowthesesystems/componentswillrespond

• determinethecapacitytoadapttominimizeimpact

• assessclimatechangerisks(consequence× probability)

• developadaptationplantominimizenegativeimpacts

GoalsofclimateadaptationplanningatIdahoNationalLaboratory

www.id.doe.govwww.inl.gov Daltonetal.,2013

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GlobalClimateChange 18 ProfJ.Hicke

Physicalassetsandrealproperty• redistributionofpopulation• hydropowerenergyproductiondisruption• availabilityofpotableandnon-potablewater• probability/severityoffire• stormevents/flooding/erosion• decreasedheatingneedsinwinter• increasedcoolingneedsinsummer• electricalshortages• sealevelrise• hurricanes• coastalerosion• fuelsupplydisruptionduetoseverestorms

Programmatic• increasedenergy,watercosts• opportunitiesforcleanenergydevelopment

anddeployment• groundwaterremediation• budgetconsiderations• historicalorculturalpreservationonDOElands• landfill/wastesites

Examplesofsystems/componentspotentiallyvulnerabletoclimatechange(atDOElevel)

Humanhealthandsafety• disease• qualityoflife• heatstress• transportationinfrastructure

disturbances,includingtoDOEfacilitiesandsupplychain

DOE2014InterimClimateChangeAdaptationPlan

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GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.Hicke

• Isthesystemalreadyabletoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Aretherebarrierstoasystem'sabilitytoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Isthesystemalreadystressedinwaysthatwilllimittheabilitytoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Istherateofprojectedclimatechangelikelytobefasterthantheadaptabilityofthesystem?

• Arethereeffortsalreadyunderwaytoaddressimpactsofclimatechangerelatedtothesystem?

Considerationsfordeterminingadaptivecapacity

USDOTFHA,2012;Snoveretal.,2007 Glicketal.2011

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GlobalClimateChange 20 ProfJ.Hicke

combine:• exposure(climatechangeinformation)• sensitivity(responsetoclimatechange)• adaptivecapacity

twoapproaches• quantitativeanalysis(uncommon)• expertopinion

• yieldslow/medium/highrating

Determiningvulnerability

USDOTFHA,2012;Snoveretal.,2007Glicketal.2011

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GlobalClimateChange 21 ProfJ.Hicke

Identifyingsectors/systems/componentsatINLthatcouldbeaffectedbyclimatechange

Glicketal.2011

Needtoconsiderbothdirectandindirecteffects

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GlobalClimateChange 22 ProfJ.Hicke

INLimpactandvulnerabilityassessmentsensitivity exposure

adapt.capacityimpact vuln.

Glicketal.2011

Page 23: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.HickeIPCC,WG2,2013

Page 24: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 24 ProfJ.Hicke

www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/plans.html

States,LocalClimateAdaptationPlans

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GlobalClimateChange 25 ProfJ.Hicke

villagerelocationbecauseofsealevel

rise,erosion

upgradingsewersystems

LA:$10Mforresiliency(planning,capacity,guidance)

citiesformedadaptationalliance

toshareinfo

NationalClimateAssessment,2014

Currentadaptationactivities

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GlobalClimateChange 26 ProfJ.Hicke

USDAForestServiceclimateadaptationplans

slidecourtesyDavePeterson,USFS

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GlobalClimateChange 27 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationWATER

Vulnerability• Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation strategy• Design infrastructure to

accommodate higher peak flows

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

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GlobalClimateChange 28 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationWATER

Vulnerability• Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation tactics• Install larger culverts• Decommission roads in

floodplains• Relocate campgrounds

subject to floodingSlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

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GlobalClimateChange 29 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationFISHERIES

Vulnerability• Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation strategy• Restore and maintain

cold-water habitat

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

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GlobalClimateChange 30 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationFISHERIES

Vulnerability• Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation tactics• Map cold-water habitat• Restore side channels• Increase shade in

riparian areas

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

Page 31: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 31 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationVEGETATION

Vulnerability• Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation strategy• Increase resilience of

forest ecosystems to more frequent fire

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

Page 32: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 32 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationVEGETATION

Vulnerability• Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation tactics• Reduce stand densities• Accelerate hazardous

fuel treatments• Manage for diversity of

stand agesSlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

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GlobalClimateChange 33 ProfJ.Hicke

1.restraint(donothing)

2.resilience(buytime)• facilitateanecosystem’sororganism’s

abilitytorebound/recoveryfromadisturbance

• removeotherstressors(invasivespecies,humanpressure)

• thinforeststodecreasedroughtvulnerability

3.resistance(buytime)• fuelbreakstostopwildfires• controllinginsectoutbreaks• dripirrigation

4.realignment(long-termchange)• assistedmigration• plantwithspeciesbetter

adaptedtonew/futureclimatefollowingseveredisturbance

• mixinggenotypesfromotherregions(thatmaybemoreresilient/resistant)

Adaptationoptionsinwildernessareas

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GlobalClimateChange 34 ProfJ.Hicke

AmericanSocietyofAdaptationProfessionals

Page 35: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 35 ProfJ.Hicke

“Whitebarkpine(Pinusalbicaulis)assistedmigrationpotential:testingestablishment

northofthespeciesrange”

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

Assistedmigrationofspecies

Page 36: gcc fall 16 section 10 action - University of Idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure) • thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

GlobalClimateChange 36 ProfJ.Hicke

Triallocations(blackdots)

Seedsources (whitesquares)

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

Assistedmigrationofspecies

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GlobalClimateChange 37 ProfJ.Hicke

Resultsoftrials

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

coldestsites

Assistedmigrationofspecies


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