gcc fall 14 section c carboncycle - university of idahojhicke/courses/... · 10/14/14 1 global...

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Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke

GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014

Sec�on C: Carbon Cycle

Outline

C.1 Introduc�on C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturba�ons to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget


GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014


Learning outcomes

  explain the major stocks of the global carbon cycle

  understand the major sources and sinks of the carbon cycle and the �me scales over which they operate

  describe the human perturba�ons to the carbon

cycle and where the emi�ed carbon is going


GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014


Outline


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Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013

Carbon stocks and fluxes


Carbon stocks in ecosystems (plants and soil) Carbon stocks


cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documenta�on.html

Carbon stocks

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GPP or NPP (and R?)

Carbon fluxes


Forest disturbances and the C cycle

Sink of C from atmosphere

Source of C to atmosphere

carbon management

Kurz et al., Nature, 2008

Kurz et al. 2008, Nature

Slide courtesy W. Kurz, CFS

Cumulative impact: equivalent to 5 years of emissions from Canada’s transportation sector


Sea-‐to-‐Air Carbon Flux

cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/LDEO_Underway_Database/pco2_flux_rate_maps.html

to air to sea

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Long-‐term Carbon Cycle

www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/carbon_cycle/carbon_cycle.html




GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014


Outline


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Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2012/04/modeling-‐global-‐co2-‐cycles.html

Annual cycle of atmospheric CO2

Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990

Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

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Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios

Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC

Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014�

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)

The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)

Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions


Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)

China’s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average


Per capita emissions in 2013

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Size of country propor�onal to total CO2 emissions in 2009


EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990– 2012, 2014

IPCC AR4, 2007

CO2e emissions by sector (source)

US

Global


EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990– 2012, 2014

State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007

US emissions by consumers of fossil fuels

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www.ib�mes.com/reversal-‐fortune-‐deforesta�on-‐ amazon-‐rainforest-‐increased-‐28-‐over-‐past-‐year-‐1472840 www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/05/31/187301981/Ba�ling-‐Deforesta�on-‐In-‐

Indonesia-‐One-‐Firm-‐At-‐A-‐Time

Tropical deforesta�on

www.argen�naindependent.com/socialissues/environment/amazonian-‐deforesta�on-‐soars/

Global Climate Change 23 Prof J. Hicke upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Fires_and_Deforesta�on_on_the_Amazon_Fron�er%2C_Rondonia%2C_Brazil_-‐_August_12%2C_2007.jpg

Deforesta�on pa�erns


h�p://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/

Arc of deforesta�on (red) in Amazon

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R.A. Houghton, unpublished

Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Pg

C y

r-1

0.00 0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80 1.00

1.20

1.40 1.60

1.80

1850

1860

1870

18

80

1890

19

00

1910

1920

19

30

1940

19

50

1960

1970

19

80

1990

20

00

Africa Latin America S. & SE Asia

Historical Emissions from Land Use Change

SUM

2000-2007

1.5 GtonC y-1

(16% total emissions)

Land-Use Change Emissions

Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 during 2004–2013 The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990

Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey Land-use change also emits CH4 and N2O which are not shown here

Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Indonesian peat fires

Total Global Emissions by Source

Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950 Coal consumption continues to grow strongly

Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

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GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014


Outline



Na�onal Geographic, 2009

Balancing the global carbon budget

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

26% 9.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr

32.4±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%

+ 3.3±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%

10.6±2.9 GtCO2/yr

29% Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

15.8±0.4 GtCO2/yr

44%

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Carbon uptake by land and ocean


IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013

Global carbon budget

Global Carbon Budget

Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

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Global Carbon Budget

The cumulative contributions to the Global Carbon Budget from 1870 Contributions are shown in parts per million (ppm)

Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;

Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

sources

sinks


State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007

North American carbon budget


Oceans: Sinks, with small uncertain�es

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Land: Sinks, with uncertain�es


Large uncertain�es in model results for uptake of carbon on land


Large uncertain�es when modeling

future vegeta�on type

columns: different GCMs rows: different assump�ons about

vegeta�on (amount of CO2 and its effect on photosynthesis)

Lapola et al., 2009

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