gas export and enhancing reliability of gas supply to …€¦ · gas pipeline across baltic sea...
TRANSCRIPT
Press Conference, June 6, 2017
ALEXANDER MEDVEDEV
Deputy Chairman of Management Committee, Gazprom
GAS EXPORT AND ENHANCING RELIABILITY OF GAS SUPPLY
TO EUROPE
Volume and average price* data of Gazprom Group gas
beyond former Soviet Union (FSU)** Volume and average price* data of Gazprom Group gas
in FSU
2
Net revenue* from gas sales beyond FSU Net revenue* from gas sales in FSU
* Inclusive of (excise tax and) customs duties
** Gas supplies, including LNG and auctioned gas, to foreign countries, except for FSU, under contracts of Gazprom Export and other Gazprom companies
GAS SALES BY GAZPROM GROUP
56.7 70.2 81.7
66.1 59.4 48.1 40.3 33.2 6,411 7,039 8,509 9,490 8,500 10,116
11,911 10,263
0
50
100
150
200
250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RU
B/1
,000
m3
bln
m3
1,396 1,358
1,764 1,807
2,116 2,150
2,777 2,686
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RU
B b
ln
363 494
695 627 505 486 480
340
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RU
B b
ln
148.3 148.1 156.6 151.0 174.3
159.4 184.4
228.3
9,414 9,167 11,259 11,970 12,138
13,487 15,057
11,763
0
50
100
150
200
250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RU
B/1
,000
m3
bln
m3
Poland, 11.1
France, 11.5
UK 17.9
Italy, 24.7
Turkey, 24.8
Germany, 49.8
3
GAZPROM GROUP’S GAS SALES BEYOND FSU (UNDER CONTRACTS OF GAZPROM EXPORT AND GAZPROM SCHWEIZ)
• Total sales in 2016 amounted to 179.3 bln m3
• Increase of 19.9 billion m3 (+12.5%) from previous year
• Major gas buyers in 2016 were Germany, Turkey, and Italy
bln m3
Moldova, 3.0
Kazakhstan, 4.7
Belarus, 18.3
4
Gazprom’s gas sales in FSU totaled 33.2 bln m3* in 2016
bln m3
* According to consolidated financial
statements of Gazprom prepared under IFRS
GAZPROM GROUP’S GAS SALES TO FSU IN 2016
5
PIVOTAL ROLE OF GAZPROM GROUP’S GAS IN
EUROPEAN MARKET
Gazprom Group’s* share in European gas consumption Gazprom Group’s* share in European gas imports**
* Gas sales to European countries beyond FSU under contracts of Gazprom Export and GAZPROM Schweiz
** Difference between consumption and indigenous production
Gas supplies to Europe by major gas exporters and producers
in 2016, bln m3
Short-term forecasts for gas consumption from world’s
leading companies (consumption in 2012 = 100%)
100.0 99.7
89.6
93.5
99.9
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
%
Actual 2012-16 CERA (Oct. 2016)
CERA (March 2017) PIRA (Sept. 2016)
PIRA (March 2017) IEA (May 2015)
IEA (May 2016)
179.3
124.0
51.2 46.4 45.5 24.0
9.8 8.0
0
50
100
150
200
Gaz
prom
Gro
up*
Nor
way
Alg
eria
UK
Net
herla
nds
Qat
ar
Nig
eria
Iran
583 598 564 602 551 542 540 485 507 542
26% 27% 25% 23% 27% 26% 30% 30% 31% 33%
0100200300400500600700800900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gas consumption, bln m3 Gas sales by Gazprom Group*, bln m3
Gazprom Group's share*
271 273 257 280 274 248 255
225 240 273
56% 58% 55% 50% 55% 56% 64% 66% 66% 66%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Import needs, bln m3Gas sales by Gazprom Group*, bln m3Gazprom Group's* share
6
LOW COMMERCIAL ATTRACTIVENESS OF U.S. LNG
SUPPLIES TO EUROPE
In current
environment,
forward contract
prices at European
trading platforms do
not cover full cost of
future U.S. LNG
supplies linked to
Henry Hub prices
Estimated price range* for U.S. LNG supplies in Europe versus forward prices**
in European gas market
* Based on Henry Hub forward prices, P = HH * 115% + X, where X – costs (liquefaction, shipments, regasification)
** NBP forward prices
*** Historical data: Russian gas prices, including delivery, at German border (according to World Bank), projected data: based on current forward prices of
Brent and TTF
Sources: Bloomberg, Cheniere Energy, WoodMackenzie, World Bank
7
FORECASTED GROWTH IN GAS-FIRED
POWER GENERATION
Power industry shows highest growth rates in gas consumption across Europe. Even EC’s most radical ecology-oriented scenario, with highest subsidies for RES, envisages increased gas use for power generation. According to baseline scenario, by 2025 gas-fired power generation in EU will grow by one-third versus 2015.
Baseline scenario* 2030 Energy Strategy scenario**
* 21% increase in energy efficiency by 2030, 33% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 versus 1990, 24.4% share of
RES in primary energy consumption by 2030.
** 27% increase in energy efficiency by 2030, 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 versus 1990, 27% share of
RES in primary energy consumption by 2030.
Source: European Commission, ENTSO-E
438
473
489
505
521
537
554
570
586
602
618
634
650
666
682
698
714
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
TWh
33.3
%
33.6
%
438
473
476
478
481
484
487
489
492
495
497
500
503
505
508
511
513
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Oil
Gas
Coal
Wind
Solar and tidalenergy, etc.Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
TWh
26.4
%
40.1
%
Prospects for gas demand increase in transportation
sector:
• Heavy-duty truck can consume up to 200–300 kg of
LNG daily
• Transportation company with 20–40 trucks consumes
several mln m3 of gas per year
• Europe’s demand for natural gas as vehicle fuel can
reach up to 27 billion m3 by 2025*
Between 2013 and 2016:
• Number of Gazprom Group’s gas filling stations in Europe increased from 23 to 69
• In 2016, Gazprom Group entered Serbia’s NGV market, with retail services offered
at two stations
• Gazprom’s supplies of CNG and LNG to its own and third-party gas filling stations
grew from 4.8 to 14.6 mln m3
• In collaboration with local companies, Gazprom NGV Europe (part of Gazprom
Group) implements Europe’s first projects for introducing LNG as vehicle fuel in
public bus transportation in Poland: 11 buses in Olsztyn and 35 buses in Warsaw
8
USE OF NATURAL GAS AS VEHICLE FUEL IN LONG TERM
* ACER (Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) forecast.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2013 2014 2015 2016
Serbia
Czech Republic
Poland
Germany
Gazprom’s sales of gas as vehicle fuel through its
own and third-party stations, mln m3/year
UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE: ENSURING STABLE,
RELIABLE AND FLEXIBLE SUPPLIES
2016: development of Europe’s underground gas storage network
Rehden
Banatski Dvor
Katharina
Bergermeer
Haidach
Damborice
During 2016/2017 withdrawal season, Gazprom
operated 5 bln m3 of storage capacities in Europe.
Maximum daily deliverability of UGS facilities in
Western Europe was 83.3 mln m3 during
2016/2017 withdrawal season.
Katharina and Damborice UGS projects are in progress:
• Katharina UGS facility has 6 operational caverns with total working capacity of 315 mln m3 and maximum daily
deliverability of 23.2 mln m3. On April 1, 2017, UGS surface facilities were brought onstream.
• On July 1, 2016, Damborice UGS facility with design working capacity of 456 million m3 was put into operation in Czech
Republic. At present, Gazprom has access to 156 mln m3 of Damborice’s storage capacity, with maximum daily
deliverability standing at 3.7 mln m3.
9
NORD STREAM 2
10
• Nord Stream 2 project envisages construction of
gas pipeline across Baltic Sea with entry point in
Kingisepp District of Leningrad Region and exit
point near Greifswald in Germany
• Length of gas pipeline: around 1,200 km
• Annual capacity: 55 bln m3 of gas
• In addition to higher reliability of supplies, Nord
Stream 2 project is consistent with EU objectives
for energy security and harmful emissions
reduction
• Nord Stream 2 AG project company was set up to
deliver project
• Nord Stream 2 AG signed financing agreements
with ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and
Wintershall for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project
TURKSTREAM
11
• TurkStream is project for transit-free export gas pipeline
stretching across Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and
further to Turkey's border with neighboring countries
• First string (15.75 bln m3 in capacity) of gas pipeline is
intended for Turkish consumers, while second string (with
same capacity) will deliver gas to EU countries
• On October 10, 2016, Russian and Turkish Governments
signed Agreement on TurkStream project
• South Stream Transport B.V., wholly-owned subsidiary
of Gazprom, is responsible for construction of gas pipeline’s
offshore section
• On May 7, 2017, pipe-laying of TurkStream gas pipeline
started near Russian coast (Audacia vessel owned
by Allseas)
• Pioneering Spirit, world’s largest pipe-laying vessel, has
arrived in port of Anapa to build TurkStream pipeline in deep-
water area of Black Sea
• TurkStream is expected to come onstream before late 2019
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!