garanti vs. market – q1’15 loans & deposits outstanding · stocul de credite private, zona...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Garanti vs. Market – Q1’15 Loans & Deposits Outstanding · Stocul de Credite Private, Zona EURO (scala dreapta) ... Dezvoltare Cresterea nivelului de trai Cresterea salariilor,](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022600/5b3b59977f8b9a1a678e93ac/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Creditarea si Cresterea sustenabila
15 June, 2015
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Evolutia creditarii in Romania
Evolutia dobanzilor si a politicii monetare
Creditarea si cresterea economica
Agenda
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Ajustarea negativa a portofoliului de credite private
6.4%
-3.6%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Depozite, crestere anuala % Credite, crestere anuala %
231 miliarde RON
211 miliarde RON
194 miliarde RON
228 miliarde RON
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Unde se vede schimbarea?
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Stocul de Credite Private Romania
Stocul de Credite Private, Zona EURO(scala dreapta)
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Unde se vede schimbarea? –Credite noi acordate
107
73 75
70
44 44
51
15
7.6%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
6
26
46
66
86
106
126
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 15
Mil
iard
e R
ON
credite noi acordate ( miliarde RON) credite noi, cresdtere anuala (scala dreapta, %)
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Unde se vede schimbarea? –Credite noi pentru populatie
4
0
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15
RO
N b
n
EUR RON
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Unde se vede schimbarea? –Credite noi pentru companii
4
2
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15
RO
N b
n
EUR RON
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Evolutia creditarii in Romania
Evolutia dobanzilor si a politicii monetare
Creditarea si cresterea economica
Agenda
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Schimbare semnificativa la costul creditarii in fuctie de moneda
6.63
3.95
20.68
5.07
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Rata dobanzilor la credite pentru companii in EUR Rata dobanzii la credite pentru companii in RON
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Schimbare semnificativa la costul creditarii in fuctie de moneda
5.76
5.3
14.76
4.254
6
8
10
12
14
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Rata dobanzii la Credite pentru locuinte in EUR Rata Dobanzii la Credite pentru locuinte RON
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Finantarea de pe piata interbancara si politica monetara
1.75
16.32
1.38
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
ROBOR 3M key rate ROBOR 1M
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Evolutia creditarii in Romania
Evolutia dobanzilor si a politicii monetare
Creditarea si cresterea economica
Agenda
![Page 13: Garanti vs. Market – Q1’15 Loans & Deposits Outstanding · Stocul de Credite Private, Zona EURO (scala dreapta) ... Dezvoltare Cresterea nivelului de trai Cresterea salariilor,](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022600/5b3b59977f8b9a1a678e93ac/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Cresterea economica sustinuta si de acceleratorul financiar
-6.6
2.8
4.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
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Recuperarea economica se face cu creditarea…
Source: S. Claessens, M. Ayhan Koze and M. E. Terrones: IMF Working Paper, 2011: How do business and financial cycles
interact, IMF Working Paper, 2011
Date bazata pe 44 de tari (21 dezvoltate si 23 emergente) care reprezinta 90% din Productia Globala.
Mai repede si… mai puternic.
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Crestere pe baza
productivitatii
mai ridicate
Crearea
locurilor
de munca
Investitii
Cercetare si
Dezvoltare
Cresterea
nivelului de trai
Cresterea
salariilor,
incluziune sociala
Cresterea cererii
prin consum
Accelerator financiar
Accele
rato
r f
ina
nc
iar
Pentru buna functionare a ciclului este nevoie de un mix de politici macroeconomice adecvat
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Crestere economica sub potential
Dezintermediere financiara (raport
credite/depozite sub 100%) : lipsa
finantarii proiectelor profitabile
(profitabilitate si crestere redusa atat a
companiilor cat si a bancilor)
Crestere economica peste potential
Alocarea resurselor neadecvata:
Finantarea proiectelor neprofitabile
(bubbles, credite neperformante)
Supraindatorarea
Gasirea echilibrului-reducerea amplitudinii ciclurilor
Politici macroeconomice contra-ciclice; reglementari potrivite,
micro si macro prudentialitate potrivita (amortizorul anticiclic de capital);
dezvoltarea institutionala penrtu reducerea asimetriei informationale
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Multumesc