gam citywire france presentation 2013
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This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
European Equities
September 2013
Niall Gallagher Investment Director
For Professional Clients Only
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
Performance and process
Introduction
● 15 years experience investing in equities
Strategy managed Dates managed
BlackRock Global & European Teams –
various analytical & funds responsibilities Jan 98 – Sep 03
BlackRock European Dynamic Fund Sep 03 – Oct 06
BlackRock European Growth Fund May 05 – Oct 06
T. Rowe Price Europe ex UK Fund Mar 07 – May 09
T. Rowe Price European Fund Mar 07 – May 09
GAM European Equities Since Nov 09
GAM Star
Continental
Europe Equity
EUR 462.2m
GAM Star
European
Equity
EUR 61.6m
GAM European Equities: EUR 523.8m
GAM Assets under Management:
Source: GAM as at 30 Aug 2013 3
GAM Star Continental European Equity – EUR Performance from 30 Nov 2009 to 30 Aug 2013
Presented as supplemental information only. Please refer to the relevant GIPS compliant report and the GIPS supplemental text.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance is provided net of fees.
Source: GAM, MSCI 4 4
GAM Star European Equity – EUR Performance from 30 Nov 2009 to 30 Aug 2013
Presented as supplemental information only. Please refer to the relevant GIPS compliant report and the GIPS supplemental text.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance is provided net of fees.
Source: GAM, MSCI 5
Process overview
● Bottom up unconstrained approach
– Primarily large cap investor with some exposure to mid caps
● Aim for detailed understanding of each position
– High conviction research driven stock selection
– Focused portfolio of 30 – 50 stocks
– Long-term (3 – 5 year) investment horizon
● Absolute, cash-flow based valuation approach augmented by a range of
multiples incorporating entire capital structure
– Free Cash Flow Equity / Enterprise Value %
– EV/Sales
– EV/CE
– EV/EBIT
– Analysis of all metrics vs. long-term historical range
● Embedded ‘bias’
– Preference for High Return on Capital Employed businesses
– Preference for strong Free Cash Flow generation
– Requirement for ‘appropriate’ balance sheets
– No preference for structural, defensive or quality over cyclical
● Portfolio construction techniques aim to maximise risk-adjusted returns and
reduce risk concentrations
Return target (net) Benchmark + 300 – 400bps pa
Typical tracking error 4 – 6% pa
Implied information
ratio 0.75
Active Share >85%
Peer group comparison Achieve first quartile ranking
6
High conviction, fundamentally driven investing
Source: GAM
There is no guarantee that targets will be achieved.
Allocations and holdings are subject to change.
Process snapshot
GAM
Star Continental
European
Equity
Active
Sh
are
Tracking Error
Low
High Low
Hig
h
0
0
Diversified
stock picks
Closet
indexing
Factor
Bets
Concentrated
stock picks
Pure indexing
A fully active style:
• Bottom up, totally unconstrained stock
picking approach
• Fundamentally driven stock selection
with a high emphasis on
diversification
• Produces a concentrated but
diversified portfolio with high active
share and medium tracking error
indicating a true stock- specific, non-
thematic style of investing
Medium
Mediu
m
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM 7
8
Investment team Managing Pan European and Continental European long-only strategies
James Davidson
Head of Investment
Administration
– 24 years’ experience
– Joined GAM in 1997
John Paul Hodder-Williams
Head Dealer
– 12 years’ experience
– Joined GAM in 2004
Supported by two additional members of the dealing team
Trading and Administration
Niall Gallagher
Investment Director
– 15 years’ experience
– Joined GAM in 2009
– Responsible for all portfolio decisions
James Wigley
Investment Analyst
– 11 years’ experience
– Joined GAM in 2010
Source: GAM as at 28 Jun 2013
Swetha Ramachandran
Investment Analyst
– 13 years’
experience
– Joined GAM
in 2012
Jessica Williams
Investment Analyst
– 1 years’
experience
– Joined GAM
in 2009
8
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
The Case for Europe
10
Europe over the past 3 years
● Low economic growth for region as a whole
– Moderate growth in northern & central Europe
– Significant contraction in economies of southern & peripheral Europe
● Significant sovereign and financial sector stresses
– Balance of payment ‘sudden stops’ across southern & peripheral Eurozone
– Multiple sovereign and financial sector bail outs
● Weak policymaking infrastructure, particularly during early part of period
– Earlier generation of policymakers were unaware of full extent of crises
– Denial and consistently inadequate responses
● Unquantifiable tail risks, principally Eurozone break- up
– Concerns fuelled by many of the worlds most “prestigious” (??) economists
– Not helped by poor and inconsistent policymaking
European equities were considered uninvestable
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
US investors remain under positioned in European equities Cumulative purchases of European equities since 2003 (US$ bn)
Source: US Treasury, Haver, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research
Actual US cumulative buying of
European shares since 2003
Buying based on trend
1978-2008
Buying based on trend
2003-08
11
12
2012 confounded expectations
● Eurozone did not fall apart
– Many Anglo- Saxon commentators significantly underestimated economic, cultural and
historic commitment to a common currency
● Significant improvement in policymaking
– Change in ECB management and board
– Greater engagement from Angela Merkel (the most important policymaker in Europe)
● Banking system did not collapse or experience significant convulsions
– Stronger banks boosted capital through strong profitability and retained earnings
– Many peripheral banks raised equity and diversified funding
– ECB provided significant assistance to banking sector (LTRO, OMT)
● Significant bounce in European equities
– Starting levels were heavily oversold
– Asset class is heavily misunderstood
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
13
2013 continues to surprise
● Economists expectations for the region have been proved wrong (again)
● Economic growth is re-accelerating in core
● Signs of ‘inflection’ in southern & peripheral economies
– Shorter term cyclical indicators are turning positive
– Longer- term structural indicators have improved significantly
● Policymaking remains focused and adept
● Economic data confirms what we have been hearing from companies “bottom- up”
– From May onwards increasing signs and commentary that activity across many sectors and
domestic economies have bottomed
● Need to maintain perspective
– Activity is bottoming and starting to expand from very low levels
– This is not a vigorous economic environment
● So far this is primarily an ‘expectational adjustment’
14
Northern and central Eurozone / Europe
● Northern and central Europe are heavily exposed to global trends
– Strong export sectors and core competitive advantage
– Stronger fiscal positions
● This creates virtuous feedback loops
– Record levels of employment → decent wage growth
– Decent wage growth → strong domestic demand
– Strong domestic demand → improving fiscal positions
● Monetary policy is set for peripheral Europe
– Interest rates too low for northern Europe
– Exchange rate very competitive for northern Europe
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
15
Southern & peripheral Europe
● Very significant improvement in current account positions in southern & peripheral Europe
– Reduced domestic demand (lower imports)
– Strong export performance
– Most economies now in current account surplus from -10 to -15% of GDP in 2007
– Eurozone region in current account surplus
● Significant improvement in fiscal positions but more to do
– Primary surplus in most peripheral economies but high debt costs leave fiscal deficits
– Debt to GDP stabilising
– Economic impacts from fiscal drag will be less going forward
● Improvements in competitiveness
– Reductions in unit labour costs
– Competitiveness often obscured by CPI increases, due to rises in taxation & ‘administered
prices’
● Shorter term economic indicators are improving such as PMIs and short-term GDP forecasts
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
16
Current account – % of GDP
Source: Citigroup August 2013 Global Economic Outlook and Strategy
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Eurozone 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Germany 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.4 4.9
Switzerland 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.9 14.0
Sweden 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.8
Denmark 6.7 5.3 4.7 4.2 4.0
Netherlands 10.1 9.4 8.9 9.4 9.5
France -2.2 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.3
Italy -0.5 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3
Spain -1.1 1.2 2.0 3.0 3.6
Portugal -1.5 1.2 3.2
Greece -3.4 -0.4 0.8 1.4 3.9
Ireland 4.4 4.6 7.1 7.8 8.5
US -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -3.0
UK -3.7 -3.3 -2.9 -2.7 -2.6
Select current accounts as % of GDP
Italy
Eurozone
Source: UBS Global Economics, Eurostat/Haver
Current account balances, % of GDP
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q100 Q101 Q102 Q103 Q104 Q105 Q106 Q107 Q108 Q109 Q110 Q111 Q112 Q113Spain
Portugal
Ireland
17
18
Fiscal position – % of GDP
Source: Citigroup August 2013 Global Economic Outlook and Strategy
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Eurozone -3.7 -2.9 -2.5 -1.9 -1.6
Germany 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5
Switzerland 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8
Sweden -0.6 -1.5 -1.5 -0.4 0.7
Denmark -4.3 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 0.5
Netherlands -4.1 -3.9 -3.4 -2.9 -2.3
France -4.8 -3.8 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4
Italy -3.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7
Spain -10.6 -6.5 -5.9 -4.6 -3.7
Portugal -10.6 -9.8 -9.2
Greece -10.0 -5.3 -4.9 -3.7 -2.4
Ireland -7.6 -8.2 -5.4 -3.4 -2.7
US -8.1 -4.8 -4.3 -3.8 -3.8
UK -6.3 -6.9 -5.8 -4.7 -2.8
Select primary fiscal accounts as % of GDP
Source: UBS Global Economics, Eurostat/Haver
Primary budget balance, % of GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Greece
Spain
Portugal
France
Ireland
Germany
19
Select unit labour costs
Source: UBS European Economics Team, Haver
Unit labour costs, Q1 2000 = 100
France
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Germany
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q1-2000 Q1-2003 Q1-2006 Q1-2009 Q1-2012
20
21
European equities remain cheap on ‘normalised’ metrics
● Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio (CAPE / Shiller PE)
– Current valuation of 13.5x
– 32 year average value of 17.5x implies a 22% discount to ‘normal’
– 40% discount to the US CAPE vs. a 32 year average discount of 14%
● Other ‘normalised’ metrics reach conclusion
● Not all of the difference is pure valuation
– ‘Normalised’ profitability in US is closer to peak
– ‘Normalised’ profitability in Europe is closer to trough
– Some of the profit destruction in Europe is permanent; Telecoms, Utilities, Banks
Source: Morgan Stanley (European Strategy Team) as at 31 Dec 2012
Shiller PE Late 1979 to summer 2013
Note: European inflation data is based on market cap weighted aggregation of constituent country inflation rates
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: MSCI, OECD, various national sources, Haver, Morgan Stanley Research - European Strategy Team, Source: MSCI, OECD, various national sources, Haver, Morgan Stanley Research -
European Strategy Team
22
Shiller PE Europe vs US
22
Alternative valuation metrics
Source: MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research
Note : Average relative valuation across PB, PD, PCE. Sector neutral valuation assumes
European Valuation Premium / Discount Relative to USA, %
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
23
Sector Neutral Premium /
Discount %
Premium / Discount %
Europe vs. USA profitability
Source: MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research
European vs USA ROE %
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 USA
Europe
24
25
Some important context on European equities
● European equities are global not local
– 50% of revenues are from outside of Europe
– 30% of revenues are from emerging markets
– Significantly less exposure to € currency than assumed
● European equity market is not homogeneous
– Significant divergences in ‘geographic exposures’ within the market
– Some sectors / stocks are almost completely global
– Some sectors / stocks are almost completely local
● In many industries European companies are the global leaders
Europe is not a good proxy for European equities
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
Revenue composition for Europe
Source: Redburn Securities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 2015
Europe Japan USA and Canada Other Americas Asia ex Japan Rest of World
26
27
Longer term investing context
● Global economic growth forecast by IMF and other forecasters at 3–4%
● Significant regional divergences are likely in the long- term
– Global growth will primarily led by emerging economies
– Emerging economies strong(er)
– Developed economies weak(er)
– US economy somewhere in between
● In a developed world characterised by low growth focus on companies that possess
– Good revenue growth prospects, ideally indexed to Global Nominal GDP
– High Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
– High Free Cash Flow conversion
– Strong balance sheets
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
28
How to find growth?
● Geographic positioning of companies
– Presence in growth markets vs no growth markets
– Total geographic composition of revenues
● Industry / technological positioning
– Innovation and evolution
– Market leadership
– Barriers to entry
● Structural vs cyclical growth
– Growth does not just imply defensiveness
– Many attractive global growth companies have embedded cyclicality
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
29
Conclusion
● European equities remain very cheap on normalised metrics
● The factors that kept investors away from Europe are dissipating
● Economic growth is recovering in the core and the periphery
● Structural improvements in the periphery are real
● Over medium- to- longer term the best growth opportunities will be those companies with best
geographical footprints
– Although Europe is getting better it is still a low growth footprint
– Companies that can index to global nominal GDP are best placed
● European equities are far more global than local
Europe contains main world class and world leading businesses that are
attractively valued
Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: GAM
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
GAM Star Continental European Equity
GAM Star Continental European Equity Investments Top 10 holdings (of 41) as at 30 Aug 2013
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Reference to a security is not a recommendation.
Source: GAM 31 31
32
GAM Star Continental European Equity Investments
Stocks % Overweight
Paddy Power 4.6
Kone 4.1
Wirecard 4.0
Schindler Holding-Part Cert 3.8
Fresenius Se & Co Kgaa 3.5
Gas Natural 3.4
Continental 3.3
Ryanair Holdings 3.3
Swatch Group 3.0
Cie Financiere Richemon-Br A 2.7
Most overweight and underweight stocks versus MSCI Europe ex UK as at 30 Aug 2013
Source: GAM/UBS PAS
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Reference to a security is not a recommendation
Stocks % Underweight
Nestle -4.2
Total Sa -2.3
SANOFI -2.3
Bayer -1.8
Siemens -1.7
Banco Santander Sa -1.5
Ubs Ag-Reg -1.4
Novartis -1.4
Novo Nordisk A/s-B -1.3
Daimler Ag-Registered Shares -1.3
GAM Star Continental European Equity Investments
Sectors % Overweight
Capital Goods 7.3
Consumer Durables & Apparel 6.2
Software & Services 4.5
Consumer Services 4.3
Automobiles & Components 4.1
Health Care Equipment & Services 3.6
Household & Personal Products 2.7
Retailing 1.7
Transportation 1.6
Media 1.4
33 33
Most overweight and underweight sectors versus MSCI Europe ex UK as at 30 Aug 2013
Source: GAM/UBS PAS
Allocations and holdings are subject to change.
Sectors % Underweight
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life
Sciences -8.9
Banks -5.9
Insurance -5.9
Food, Beverage & Tobacco -4.7
Telecommunication Services -3.2
Diversified Financials -3.1
Energy -2.2
Materials -1.5
Food & Staples Retailing -1.3
Semiconductors & Semiconductor
Equipment -0.9
GAM Star Continental European Equity – EUR Industry Analysis as at 30 Aug 2013
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding of data at source.
Source: GAM, MSCI 34 34
GAM Star Continental European Equity – EUR Geographic Analysis as at 30 Aug 2013
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding of data at source.
Source: GAM, MSCI 35
36
GAM Star Continental European Equity Investments
36
Market cap quintile as at 30 Aug 2013
GAM Star Continental European Equity - EUR
MSCI Europe ex UK Index - EUR
Source: GAM, FactSet
Allocations and holdings are subject to change.
37
GAM Star Continental European Equity Investments
37 Source: GAM, UBS/PAS
Allocations and holdings are subject to change.
Style analysis as at 30 Aug 2013
GAM Star Continental European Equity Risk-based performance attribution
Economic Sector
Portfolio Benchmark* Variation Attribution analysis
Total
effect
Average
weight
Total
return
Contrib. to
return
Average
weight
Total
return
Contrib. to
return
Average
weight
Total
return
Contrib. to
return
Factors
effect
Selection
effect
Transaction
effect
Total 100.00 68.08 68.08 100.00 34.34 34.34 -- 33.74 33.74 5.18 23.57 4.99 33.74
Consumer
Discretionary 20.13 174.01 24.59 9.52 102.32 7.44 10.61 71.69 17.15 2.69 13.45 2.18 18.32
Industrials 19.95 90.41 16.47 13.09 55.71 6.47 6.86 34.70 10.00 1.92 8.26 -0.34 9.83
Utilities 3.80 69.82 2.87 5.34 -24.46 -1.99 -1.54 94.28 4.86 0.44 5.11 0.53 6.09
[Unassigned] 5.15 115.81 4.99 1.06 48.56 0.41 4.09 67.25 4.58 -0.11 4.86 0.55 5.30
Telecommunication
Services 0.59 19.70 0.29 6.35 -7.48 -0.59 -5.76 27.17 0.88 1.07 0.40 0.38 1.84
Information
Technology 6.74 76.22 3.38 4.06 47.06 1.77 2.68 29.16 1.61 0.06 1.86 -0.80 1.11
Materials 4.34 62.17 2.70 7.97 32.93 2.45 -3.63 29.23 0.25 0.20 -1.02 0.95 0.13
[Cash] 0.84 1.13 0.03 -- -- -- 0.84 1.13 0.03 -0.52 0.55 0.01 0.03
Consumer Staples 10.30 92.34 8.75 12.50 68.60 8.10 -2.20 23.73 0.65 1.33 -1.99 0.17 -0.50
Energy 4.72 17.02 2.13 6.78 21.70 1.83 -2.06 -4.67 0.30 0.13 -1.46 0.36 -0.97
Health Care 11.12 53.08 7.00 12.58 81.34 9.39 -1.46 -28.25 -2.39 -1.29 -2.07 -0.29 -3.65
Financials 12.32 19.66 -5.12 20.76 0.45 -0.93 -8.44 19.20 -4.19 -0.73 -4.36 1.30 -3.79
Source: BARRA
* MSCI Europe Ex-United Kingdom
Data as of 30 Nov 2009 to 9 Sep 2013
38
GAM Star Continental European Equity Risk-based performance attribution
Source: BARRA
Note : Benchmark MSCI Europe Ex-United Kingdom, data as of 30 Nov 2009 to 9 Sep 2013
Risk factor names
Average managed
exposure
Average active
exposure
Compounded
factor return
Compounded
factor impact
Total 2.96 -1.84 5.18
EUR Momentum 0.28 0.23 8.34 3.20
EUR Size -0.29 -0.55 -2.17 1.86
EUR Liquidity 0.16 -0.12 -0.59 0.15
EUR Financial Leverage -0.19 -0.25 -0.10 0.11
EUR Growth 0.13 0.15 -0.32 -0.16
EUR Dividend Yield -0.49 -0.55 0.27 -0.21
EUR Volatility 0.02 -0.06 5.04 -0.40
EUR Earnings Yield -0.17 -0.20 4.36 -1.41
EUR Value -0.44 -0.46 6.59 -4.47
39
GAM Star Continental European Equity Risk-based performance attribution
Source: BARRA
Data as of 30 Nov 2009 to 9 Sep 2013
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
GAM Star European Equity
GAM Star European Equity Investments Top 10 holdings (of 42) as at 30 Aug 2013
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Reference to a security is not a recommendation
Source: GAM 42
GAM Star European Equity Investments
Stock % Overweight
Paddy Power 4.3
Kone 4.1
Henkel Ag & Co Kgaa Vorzug 4.1
Schindler Holding Ag-Reg 4.1
Wirecard 3.7
Gas Natural 3.6
Fresenius Se & Co Kgaa 3.5
Ryanair Holdings 3.3
Swatch Group 3.2
Continental Ag 3.2
43 43
Stock % Underweight
Nestle Sa-Reg -2.8
HSBC Holdings -2.5
Vodafone Group -2.0
Bp -1.7
Glaxosmithkline -1.6
Royal Dutch Shell A -1.6
Total Sa -1.5
SANOFI -1.5
Bayer Ag-Reg -1.2
Royal Dutch Shell B -1.1
Most overweight and underweight stocks versus MSCI Europe as at 30 Aug 2013
Source: GAM/UBS PAS
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Reference to a security is not a recommendation
44
GAM Star European Equity Investments
Sector % Overweight
Consumer Durables & Apparel 8.6
Capital Goods 6.0
Software & Services 4.8
Automobiles & Components 4.7
Health Care Equipment & Services 3.8
Consumer Services 3.4
Household & Personal Products 2.6
Retailing 2.4
Transportation 2.1
Technology Hardware & Equipment 1.1
44
Most overweight and underweight sectors versus MSCI Europe as at 30 Aug 2013
Sector % Underweight
Banks -7.6
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life
Sciences -7.1
Insurance -5.5
Telecommunication Services -4.3
Materials -3.8
Food, Beverage & Tobacco -3.6
Energy -1.7
Food & Staples Retailing -1.7
Diversified Financials -1.6
Real Estate -1.0
Source: GAM/UBS PAS
Allocations and holdings are subject to change.
GAM Star European Equity – EUR Industry Analysis as at 30 Aug 2013
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding of data at source.
Source: GAM, MSCI 45
GAM Star European Equity – EUR Geographic Analysis as at 30 Aug 2013
Allocations and holdings are subject to change. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding of data at source.
Source: GAM, MSCI 46
47
GAM Star European Equity Investments
47
GAM Star European Equity – EUR
MSCI Europe Index – EUR
Market cap quintile as at 30 Aug 2013
Source: GAM/FactSet
48
GAM Star European Equity Investments
48
Style analysis as at 30 Aug 2013
Source: GAM/UBS PAS
Allocations and holdings are subject to change.
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
Stock Ideas
Gas Natural 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Gas Natural Spanish Utility
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Source: Thomson Reuters
Quasi regulated electric/gas assets in Spain & Latam
Regulatory risk under control
Growth prospects in LNG supply & Latam networks
Strong balance sheet
Outstanding free cash flow generation
Decent returns 11% ROE, 10% ROIC
Valuation
— 10x PE, 7.5% FCFE/EV, 15% FCFE 2014
— Dividend yield 6.2%, >2x covered
— Leverage 3x
— Market Cap / EV only 45%
Extraordinary value opportunity for long–term oriented investors
50
Continental 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Continental Automotives Tyres and Parts
Source: Thomson Reuters 51
Excellent tyre business – replacement tyres have controlled
distribution & strong pricing power.
Well positioned in auto parts – strong growth & margin
potential in powertrain.
High pre-tax ROIC c.20% despite goodwill burden – tangible
returns substantially higher.
Strong reinvestment opportunities to drive growth.
Balance sheet getting stronger after heavy debt burden
following 2007 acquisition
Potential to reduce interest costs substantially over next few
years as refinance & deleverage.
Significant shareholder overhang creates value opportunity.
Valuation
— 8x PE 2014
— 7% FCFE/EV 2014
Significant value opportunity for long–term oriented investors
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Duerr 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Duerr Automotive Paint Shop Systems
Source: Thomson Reuters 52
Global #1 for automotive paint shop systems
Dominant player in Chinese market
Emerging market auto penetration drives growth
Prepayments and low capex lead to high ROIC
Significant opportunity from monetising installed base
Net cash balance sheet
Outstanding free cash flow generation
Excellent returns 39% ROIC 2011
Valuation
— 10% FCFE/EV 2014
— Dividend yield 2.8%.
Extraordinary wealth creation for long–term oriented investors
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Paddy Power 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Paddy Power Traditional sports 'bookmaker'
Source: Thomson Reuters 53
Betting shops in Ireland and UK
Expansion into online sports bookmaking
and online gaming
— Acquired largest online sports bookmakers in
Australia
Online now 80% of profits
Mobile internet and expansion into Italy
Canada and Australia offer huge growth potential
Financial metrics
— 53% Return on Capital Employed in 2011
— Net cash of EUR 136m at end of 2011
— 10 year EPS compound annual average growth
rate of 18%
— Share price performance of almost 27x in 12 years
Extraordinary wealth creation for long–term oriented investors
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Schindler 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Schindler Global Elevator Installed Base
Source: Thomson Reuters
2nd largest installed base of elevators globally
Installed base provides highly stable earnings
Emerging market urbanisation drives growth
Prepayments ensure high ROIC
Significant long term margin upside
Over CHF2bn of net cash for acquisitions available
Outstanding free cash flow generation
Excellent returns >100% ROIC
Valuation
— 7.5% FCFE/EV 2014
— Dividend yield 1.5%
— 20% discount to peer Kone
Extraordinary wealth creation for long–term oriented investors
54
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Elekta 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Elekta Radiation Therapy Equipment
Source: Thomson Reuters 55
Global duopoly in radiation therapy equipment
Significant barriers to entry due to high switching costs
Installed base provides stable recurring revenue base
Demographic tailwind of aging population
Very low penetration rates today in emerging markets
Outstanding growth opportunities
Excellent returns >30% ROIC
Valuation
— 5% FCFE/EV 2014
— Dividend yield 1.3%
Extraordinary wealth creation for long–term oriented investors
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Henkel 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Henkel German HPC and Adesives
Source: Thomson Reuters 56
Global adhesive market leader – adhesives is a GDP plus
growth industry
Strong consumer brands e.g. Schwarzkopf, Persil – steady
growth
Long term restructuring – margins have doubled over 10
years – and still rising
Working capital focus has reduced capital intensity – more
gains to go for.
High ROIC and should continue to grow with further
restructuring
Rising capex indicates high level of re-investment
opportunities within the business
Rapidly deleveraging with balance sheet capacity to make
acquisitions – strong track record
Valuation attractive 2014 – unleveraged PE of 15.4x,
7% FCFE/EV. Ords at 15% discount to Prefs.
Extraordinary wealth creation for long–term oriented investors
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
Inditex 29 Aug 2003 to 30 Aug 2013
Inditex Largest clothing retailer in the world
Source: Thomson Reuters 57
Key brands:
— Zara, Zara Home, Massimo Dutti, Pull & Bear,
Bershka, Oysho, Stradivarius, Uterque
Significant global expansion over last 10 years
— Spain was 46% of revenues in 2003 and 27% of
revenues in 2012
— Growth in fast growing countries
Financial metrics
— 28% Return on Capital Employed (lease adjusted)
— 10 year compound growth of 16%
— 5 year compound sales growth of 11%
— €3.5bn net cash on balance sheet as of last
reporting period
— Shares up 7x since IPO in 2001
Extraordinary wealth creation for long–term oriented investors
Reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Views are those expressed by the manager at the time of writing
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent
and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person.
Appendix
Niall Gallagher
Investment Director
Niall Gallagher is an Investment Director responsible for European markets. Prior to joining
GAM in November 2009, Niall worked as a portfolio manager managing Pan-European equities
and Continental European equities at T. Rowe Price for two years. Before that, he was at
BlackRock for nine years, where he worked as an investment analyst before managing both
continental European and pan-European equity strategies. He began his career as an
economist at the Bank of England. Niall holds a BA in Economics from Manchester
Metropolitan University and an MSc in Economics and Finance from Warwick University, and is
a CFA Charterholder. He is based in London.
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GIPS Supplemental Information
All GAM's discretionary assets have been allocated to appropriate GIPS
composites. GAM's funds often are structured as investment pools with
underlying currency classes and it is at the investment pool level that GIPS
composite allocations have been made. Supplemental information shown in
GAM's materials, including performance, geographic/industrial asset
allocations, attribution details and other statistical analyses are based on a
sample account of the relevant composite that represents the management
style. Other accounts in the composite may have slightly different portfolio
characteristics. In some cases sample accounts have history that pre-dates
GAM's compliance with GIPS of 30 June 1996. Indices other than the
benchmark are sometimes used in presentations for illustrative purposes.
Please refer to the relevant GIPS compliant report.
GAM Continental European Equity Composite (G026)
Composite Performance 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
Composite Returns % 11.24 18.92 34.23 20.67 10.20 -35.98 26.80 16.34 -10.66 35.87 10.70
Benchmark Returns* % 19.49 13.60 28.30 22.00 5.94 -42.20 29.77 9.56 -11.63 20.66 10.14
Composite Standard Dev 3Yr % 16.35 13.82 10.13 8.74 9.68 14.96 17.74 18.75 16.36 14.53 13.65
Benchmark Standard Dev 3Yr % 22.68 20.06 12.73 8.52 9.35 16.89 21.25 22.08 18.71 14.57 13.89
Number of Portfolios in Composite < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6
High Return % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Low Return % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Composite Asset value (DEXm) 12 14 84 77 124 75 67 192 232 343 463
Total Firm Assets (DEXm) 21,464 27,844 46,881 51,702 51,833 28,205 34,412 42,284 36,395 38,443 40,114
1: Established in 1983, GAM delivers active investment management to private clients, institutions and intermediaries. All GAM's assets are included in the GIPS definition of the firm, except for clients who set up separately-managed accounts which are administered by an independent third party for their fixed income hedge strategy and/or currency hedge strategy.
2: GAM claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards ('GIPS®') and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. GAM has been independently verified from 1 January 1996 through 31 December 2011. In May 2009, GAM acquired Augustus Asset Managers Limited ('Augustus') and subsequently claims compliance for a single firm representing the combined business. Having determined that the GIPS portability criteria were satisfied, the pre and post acquisition performance records of Augustus are linked. Augustus has been subject to independent verification testing from 1 January 2000, the date from which Augustus performance results are first displayed. The verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm's policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation.
3: The composite consists of actively managed portfolios of European equities (excluding the United Kingdom). Mid to large capitalisation stocks are selected from attractive sectors based on existence of or potential for above average Cash Flow Return on Investment.
4: Derivatives may be used in the portfolios to gain market exposure as well as for hedging purposes. Further details are available on request in the relevant product documentation. 5: Composite results are presented gross of investment management fees and net of trading expenses and net of withholding taxes on dividends, capital gains and interest. Benchmarks are gross of withholding taxes on
dividends. 6: The composite was created in Nov 2002 and applied retrospectively. 7: The maximum investment management fee for accounts is 1.5% per annum. Management fees may vary by product and jurisdiction. 8: High and low returns (for those constituents present in the composite throughout each period) are presented above to demonstrate dispersion within the composite. Dispersion information is only required by GIPS where there
are 6 or more portfolios in the composite. 9: From 01 Dec 2009 Niall Gallagher took over as manager from John Bennett. 10: The benchmark shown is MSCI Europe ex UK Index. 11: DEX - The reporting currency for this composite is EUR. Prior to Dec 1998, this composite was denominated in DEM. 12: Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations are available on request. 13: In 2005 GAM changed its methodology for calculating its Total Firm Assets (TFA) to follow the principles and guidelines of FINMA, resulting in TFA as of Nov 2005 increasing by 38%. In May 2009, GAM acquired Augustus
resulting in an increase of 22% in TFA and a change in the Firm definition to incorporate an exclusion of certain assets as detailed above. Current data is as at 30 June 2013. 14: FX rates used for valuation of funds and portfolios within the composite are those at 23:00 hours GMT. FX rates for benchmark and composition calculation are those at 16:00 hours GMT. 15: Where there are fewer than 36 monthly returns for the Composite, Standard Deviation 3Yr% is shown as ‘N/A’ for both the Composite and the Benchmark.
GAM has prepared and presented this report
in compliance with the Global Investment
Performance Standards (GIPS®). A
complete list and description of composites is
available on request.
Source: GAM as at 31 Aug 2013
* The benchmark shown is for comparative
purposes only. The composite is not
managed to a specific benchmark.
There is no guarantee that targets will be
achieved.
GAM European Equity Composite (G025)
Composite Performance 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
Composite Returns % 13.72 16.76 28.56 20.56 6.60 -38.85 26.94 11.26 -9.71 30.76 9.81
Benchmark Returns* % 15.76 12.65 26.68 20.18 3.17 -43.29 32.55 11.75 -7.51 18.09 8.85
Composite Standard Dev 3Yr % 16.81 15.20 10.92 7.90 9.22 15.21 18.20 18.91 15.91 13.69 12.88
Benchmark Standard Dev 3Yr % 20.15 17.85 11.31 7.37 8.73 16.22 20.21 20.84 16.98 13.00 12.34
Number of Portfolios in Composite < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6 < 6
High Return % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Low Return % N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Composite Asset value (DEXm) 581 647 874 1,255 1,412 718 406 277 190 52 62
Total Firm Assets (DEXm) 21,464 27,844 46,881 51,702 51,833 28,205 34,412 42,284 36,395 38,443 40,114
1: Established in 1983, GAM delivers active investment management to private clients, institutions and intermediaries. All GAM's assets are included in the GIPS definition of the firm, except for clients who set up separately-managed accounts which are administered by an independent third party for their fixed income hedge strategy and/or currency hedge strategy.
2: GAM claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards ('GIPS®') and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. GAM has been independently verified from 1 January 1996 through 31 December 2011. In May 2009, GAM acquired Augustus Asset Managers Limited ('Augustus') and subsequently claims compliance for a single firm representing the combined business. Having determined that the GIPS portability criteria were satisfied, the pre and post acquisition performance records of Augustus are linked. Augustus has been subject to independent verification testing from 1 January 2000, the date from which Augustus performance results are first displayed. The verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm's policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation.
3: The composite consists of actively managed portfolios of European equities (including the United Kingdom). Stocks are selected from attractive sectors primarily on a cash-flow based valuation approach and the fundamental long- term growth prospects of the business.
4: Derivatives may be used in the portfolios within the composite to gain market exposure as well as for hedging purposes. Please note that further detail is available on request. 5: Composite results are presented gross of investment management fees and net of trading expenses and net of withholding taxes on dividends, capital gains and interest. Benchmarks are gross of withholding taxes on
dividends. 6: The maximum investment management fee for accounts is 1.5% per annum. Management fees may vary by product and jurisdiction. 7: The composite was created in Nov 2002 and applied retrospectively. 8: High and low returns (for those constituents present in the composite throughout each period) are presented above to demonstrate dispersion within the composite. Dispersion information is only required by GIPS where there
are 6 or more portfolios in the composite. 9: From 01 Dec 2009 Niall Gallagher took over as manager from John Bennett. 10: The benchmark shown is MSCI Europe Index. 11: DEX - The reporting currency for this composite is EUR. Prior to Dec 1998, this composite was denominated in DEM. 12: Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations are available on request. 13: In 2005 GAM changed its methodology for calculating its Total Firm Assets (TFA) to follow the principles and guidelines of FINMA, resulting in TFA as of Nov 2005 increasing by 38%. In May 2009, GAM acquired Augustus
resulting in an increase of 22% in TFA and a change in the Firm definition to incorporate an exclusion of certain assets as detailed above. Current data is as at 30 June 2013. 14: FX rates used for valuation of funds and portfolios within the composite are those at 23:00 hours GMT. FX rates for benchmark and composition calculation are those at 16:00 hours GMT. 15: Where there are fewer than 36 monthly returns for the Composite, Standard Deviation 3Yr% is shown as ‘N/A’ for both the Composite and the Benchmark.
GAM has prepared and presented this report
in compliance with the Global Investment
Performance Standards (GIPS®). A
complete list and description of composites is
available on request.
Source: GAM as at 31 Aug 2013
* The benchmark shown is for comparative
purposes only. The composite is not
managed to a specific benchmark.
There is no guarantee that targets will be
achieved.
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Disclaimer
Source: GAM unless otherwise stated. (Unless otherwise noted, where shown, performance is shown net of fees, on a NAV to NAV basis). This material is confidential and is intended solely for the use of the person or persons to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person. It is aimed at sophisticated, professional, eligible, institutional and/or qualified investors who have the knowledge and financial sophistication to understand and bear the risks associated with the investments described herein. This material is confidential and is intended solely for the use of the person or persons to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced, copied or given, in whole or in part, to any other person. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be solely relied on in making an investment or other decision. It is not an invitation to subscribe and is by way of information only. The fund is a sub-fund of GAM Star Fund plc. GAM Star Fund plc is an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds. GAM Star Fund plc is authorised as a UCITS pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2011 (S.I. No.352 of 2011) and is a recognised scheme under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. The fund is managed by GAM Fund Management Limited which is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Subscriptions will only be received and shares or units (‘Shares’) issued on the basis of the current prospectus for the fund. Copies of the fund’s prospectus, key investor information document (KIID) and financial statements can be obtained free of charge from GAM Fund Management Limited, George’s Court, 54-62 Townsend Street, Dublin 2, from the centralising agent for France, BNP Paribas Securities Services, 66 rue de la Victoire, 75009 Paris, from its representative in Switzerland GAM Anlagefonds AG, Klausstrasse 10, CH - 8034 Zurich, from the information agent in Germany Bank Julius Baer Europe AG, An der Welle 1, D-60322 Frankfurt am Main ,from the information agent in Austria, UniCredit Bank Austria, Schottengasse 6 - 8, A-1010 Vienna. Paying Agent in Switzerland is State Street Bank GmbH, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstrasse 19, CH-8027 Zurich. Shares are not available for sale in any state or jurisdiction in which such sale would be prohibited. In Hong Kong, this material is restricted to professional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap 571)) only. In Singapore, this material is limited to institutional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289)) ('SFA') only. The fund is not authorised or recognised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Shares in the fund are not allowed to be offered to the retail public in Singapore; and any written material issued in connection with the offer is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA and, accordingly, statutory liability under the SFA in relation to the content of prospectuses would not apply. In other countries in the Asia Pacific region, this document should only be distributed in accordance with the applicable laws in the relevant jurisdiction. In Japan, the fund mentioned herein shall not be disclosed publicly pursuant to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (the “FIEL”) nor registered for public sale or private placement pursuant to the Law on Investment Trusts and Investment Companies. Therefore, none of the shares of the fund mentioned herein may be solicited in Japan or to residents in Japan. This material is intended for circulation to professional, institutional and/or qualified investors only. Any person in receipt of this material is not allowed to distribute it to residents in Japan nor communicate to residents in Japan about the fund mentioned herein. The Shares of the fund have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and the fund is not registered under the US Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “Company Act”). Accordingly, unless an exemption is available, such shares may not be of fered, sold or distributed in the United States or to US persons. However, pursuant to an exemption from registration under the Securities Act and the Company Act, the shares may be sold or resold in the United States or to certain qualified US investors in transactions that do not constitute a public offering. The views expressed herein are those of the manager at the time and are subject to changes. The price of Shares may go down as well as up and the price will depend on fluctuations in financial markets outside GAM's control, as a result an investor may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and reference to a security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Prices quoted refer to accumulation Shares unless otherwise stated. Historic data may be subject to restatement from time to time. In the United Kingdom, this material has been issued and approved by GAM London Ltd, 12 St James's Place, London SW1A 1NX, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued in Switzerland by GAM Anlagefonds AG.
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