citywire berlin presentation final

29
NEPTUNE CHINA FUND Douglas Turnbull, CFA Fund Manager FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION CITYWIRE PAN EUROPEAN EVENT – BERLIN 16-18 November 2011

Upload: citywirewebsite

Post on 25-May-2015

517 views

Category:

Business


3 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Citywire berlin presentation final

NEPTUNE CHINA FUND

Douglas Turnbull, CFA

Fund Manager

FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION

CITYWIRE PAN EUROPEAN EVENT – BERLIN 16-18 November 2011

Page 2: Citywire berlin presentation final

2

BIOGRAPHY – DOUGLAS TURNBULL

Fund Manager on the Neptune China Fund, alongside Lead Manager Robin Geffen Assistant Fund Manager on Neptune Global Equity Fund, working alongside Robin Geffen

Joined Neptune as an Analyst in January 2007 Graduated from Oxford University with a first class honours in Modern History CFA Charterholder Global sector research responsibilities: financials

An emerging talent in fund management

Page 3: Citywire berlin presentation final

3

CHINA IS HERE TO STAY

Economic transition and development

in China

Investing in the Chinese market

– Policy importance and direction

Investment opportunities arising

We believe this is a “generation-defining opportunity”

Page 4: Citywire berlin presentation final

4

THE ECONOMIC TRANSITION TAKING PLACE IN CHINA

Page 5: Citywire berlin presentation final

LONG-TERM: AN ECONOMY IN TRANSITION

China too big to be an “Asian Tiger”

Economy moving up value-chain

– Push: ‘old economy’ companies under policy pressure

– Pull: ‘new economy’ companies given incentives

Economy moving towards endogenous growth

– Domestic consumption and rural development

We believe China is moving to a new & sustainable growth model

5 Source: World Bank, December 2010

Page 6: Citywire berlin presentation final

Urban population as % of total

MEDIUM-TERM: A GRADUAL TRANSITION

Looks the same? Growth still

investment led

– Urbanisation

– Industrialisation

Qualitatively different, if

quantitatively slower

– Geographically focused inland

– Softer infrastructure to the fore:

‘Harmonious Society’ is back

Political priorities unlocking long-term potential

6 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, July 2011; World Bank August 2011

FAI growth by region

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

India China Russia US Brazil UK

Page 7: Citywire berlin presentation final

CHINA’S INFLATION DILEMMA OVER-HYPED

Short-term = food and energy prices (economic negative, including for consumption)

Inflation expectations are important to manage, hence policy responses

Longer-term = driven by wage growth; good for consumption

Nuanced understanding shows inflation assists economic change

7

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11

%

CPI Food CPI non-food

Source: Bloomberg August 2011

CPI components Y-o-Y

Page 8: Citywire berlin presentation final

8

INVESTING IN CHINA THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

POLICY

Page 9: Citywire berlin presentation final

SHORT-TERM: POLICY KEEPING GROWTH ON TRACK

Tightening cycle fairly advanced and room to loosen

– Positive for economy after success of government’s firepower & willpower to stimulate

– Positive for market after uncertainty/policy risk overhangs

Policy sustaining economic strength and bodes well for market

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

%

Loan Growth M2 Growth

Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co., Bloomberg September 2011. The forecasts are Neptune’s personal views and as such this document is

deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

China quantity of money Y-o-Y China cost of money

9

Page 10: Citywire berlin presentation final

10

ADDRESSING CONCERNS: TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?

Comparison to Japan et al is inaccurate

Overcapacity fears are overdone

Long-term structural challenges exist, but

they are not insurmountable

We expect that long-term potential will continue to be realised

Source: The Economist, 14.01.10

Page 11: Citywire berlin presentation final

A MISPRICED MARKET OPPORTUNITY

Cheap by all key comparisons

The current crisis is not of China

– European and US: confidence & politics

– Policy tools still available in China

China’s growth increasingly insulated

– Investing for new model of growth

Valuation discounts are not warranted; compelling time to buy

MSCI China P/E

Valuation

Peak 29.35x

Average 15.57x

Current 9.21x

MSCI World 12.74x

S&P 500 12.94x

Source: Bloomberg as at 31.10.11. These are Neptune’s personal views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We

do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

11

Page 12: Citywire berlin presentation final

12

THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES ARISING

Consumer Infrastructure

Page 13: Citywire berlin presentation final

WINNING THE WALLETS OF CHINA’S CONSUMERS

Strong domestic brands

– Domestic tastes understood

– Leveraging JVs, e.g. Autos

– Strong sales and pricing power

Logistical advantages

– Networks in place

– Work well with local constraints

More sophisticated consumer

– Multi-layered consumer = multiple opportunities

Domestic champions establishing dominant positions

13 References to specific securities are for illustration purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities.

Page 14: Citywire berlin presentation final

GLOBAL SECTOR FOCUS: GROWTH OF THE INTERNET IN CHINA

Fast growth on a huge scale; domestic champions winning

Source: DCCI, China Internet Watch, June 2011. Please remember that forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts are

Neptune’s personal views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our

views. References to specific securities are for illustration purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities.

14

Already huge market

– China accounts for approx. 20% world internet users

Growth potential still huge as penetration still low

– China will have an estimated 551 million internet users by the end of 2011

Tencent’s QQ is the dominant online messenger

– Money follows the eyeballs

Page 15: Citywire berlin presentation final

MACAU – BETTER THAN RED OR BLACK

Already huge market – world’s largest

for gambling

Growing fast – adding a Vegas in 2011

– Demand huge but supply constrained

Picking the high quality winners

– Wynn Macau and Sands China

Las Vegas is now just the Macau of the West!

Source: CLSA Research, February 2011

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

LV Strip

Macau

15

US

$ B

n

Development of market size

Page 16: Citywire berlin presentation final

FINANCIALS – A CONSUMER SECOND DERIVATIVE?

Banking = a “new” industry as it is today in China

Valuation (P/B multiple) capped by politics and opacity

Earnings at risk: medium-term implications of stimuli

Equity raisings highly likely longer term

Long-term transitions further away in this sector

– Consumer or SME lending

Valuations unattractive for level of risk

We believe index heavyweights can be avoided for now

16

P/B = ROE – G

COE – G

Page 17: Citywire berlin presentation final

CHINA’S SOCIAL HOUSING PROGRAMME

Economic AND political imperative

– Social housing offsetting loan quotas in private sector

This has begun, and on a large scale

Impact of build out is substantial

– Residential construction -12.5% GDP

Prospects for order books of exposed companies excellent

Source: Neptune/ CLSA as at July 2011. Please remember that forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts are

Neptune’s personal views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any

change of our views.

Residential floor space completed (‘000sqm)

17

Page 18: Citywire berlin presentation final

NEPTUNE CHINA FUND PERFORMANCE SINCE LAUNCH (VS MARKET)

Source: Bloomberg, 31.10.11. Neptune, A Accumulation share class cumulative performance, in sterling with net income reinvested and no

initial charges. The performance of other share classes may differ. This Fund may have a high historic volatility rating and past performance is

not a guide to future performance. 18

4 distinct relative performance phases over life of fund:

1) Lagged mega-cap rally to bubble 2) In-line over sell off

3) Lagged initial stimulus bounce

4) Period of outperformance as economic adjustments gain momentum

Forward-looking fund positioning, bearing fruits

---------- Neptune China Fund relative to the MSCI China ---------- MSCI China

Page 19: Citywire berlin presentation final

19

NEPTUNE CHINA FUND CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE –EURO

Source: Lipper as at 31.10.11, IMA China / Greater China sector; A Accumulation share class cumulative performance, in euros with net

income reinvested and no initial charges. The performance of other share classes may differ. This Fund may have a high historic volatility

rating and past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise as

a result of market and currency fluctuations and your clients may not get back the original amount invested.

A good long-term record

Period Neptune China

Fund MSCI China

To 31.10.11 % return % return

1 year -16.09 -15.88

3 years 75.97 55.95

5 years 25.46 41.18

Since launch (31.12.04) 116.20 159.06

Page 20: Citywire berlin presentation final

CHINA: “A GENERATION-DEFINING OPPORTUNITY”

Long-term growth story strong and

supported

Translates into potential long-term

investment themes

Fund focussed on consumer and

infrastructure; financials key

underweight

20 Source: Neptune as at 31.10.11

Developed market SIZE; emerging market potential for GROWTH

Consumer Disc. 29.5%

Healthcare 1.5%

IT 13.1%

Utilities 4.1%

Consumer Staples 14.3%

Financials 7.1%

Telecoms 4.2%

Industrials 6.8%

Cash 5.2%

Energy 11.7%

Materials 2.5%

Page 21: Citywire berlin presentation final

21

APPENDICES

Page 22: Citywire berlin presentation final

22

NEPTUNE CHINA FUND

Launch date: 31 December 2004

Fund Managers: Robin Geffen (Lead Manager) and Douglas Turnbull

Assistant Fund Manager: Adam Kelly

Fund size: £82.0* (€93.5m)

Concentrated high conviction approach: 30-50 best ideas invested through

HK listings

Investment objective†: to generate capital growth from investment

predominantly in Chinese securities, or in the securities issued by

companies transacting a significant proportion of their business in China

*Source: Neptune as at 31.10.11. FX rate as at 31.10.11 £1/€1.1403. †There is no assurance that the fund objective will actually be achieved. This Fund may invest more than 35% in government and public securities in a number of jurisdictions. For further details please see the Full Prospectus. Investments in emerging markets are higher risk and potentially more volatile than those in established markets.

Page 23: Citywire berlin presentation final

23

NEPTUNE BY NUMBERS

Corporate

– £6.7 billion (€7.6billion) under management

– Approximately 75% of the Company is owned by staff and directors

Investment expertise

– 23 investment professionals incentivised by shares, fund profitability and

performance

– 10 global industry sectors researched by dedicated in-house sector analysts

Fund range

– 10 funds registered for sale in Germany

– UCITS UK-domiciled OEICs denominated in euros, US dollars or sterling

– Please refer to slide 24 for a full breakdown of all Neptune funds registered

in Europe and available currency share classes

Source: unless otherwise stated, information is provided by Neptune as at 31.10.11. The value of an investment and any income from it can fall

as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuation and your client may not get back the amount originally invested. FX rate as at

31.10.11 £1/€1.1403.

Page 24: Citywire berlin presentation final

CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN REGISTRATION OF NEPTUNE FUNDS

The Funds listed are approved

in Germany, Switzerland,

Austria, Belgium,

Luxembourg, Netherlands

and France in addition to the

UK**

Tax transparent in Germany

and Austria

Currency share classes

available: £, €, $

*Are authorised but not currently available for investment.

**Please note that the Emerging Markets fund is not registered in Belgium, Luxembourg or the Netherlands.

Neptune Funds £ € $

UK Equity Fund *

US Opportunities Fund

Japan Opportunities Fund

Global Equity Fund

European Opportunities Fund

Russia & Greater Russia Fund

Asia Pacific Opportunities Fund

India Fund * *

Emerging Markets Fund** *

China Fund *

24

Page 25: Citywire berlin presentation final

25

A PROVEN PROCESS WITH PROPRIETARY RESEARCH

Team-driven active management

– No fixed style

– Seeking to outperform throughout the economic cycle

Top-down global view by experienced sector analysts

– Focus on economic indicators and growth prospects

– Produces output of sector and regional weightings

Bottom-up stock screening

– We believe stock selection is essential in concentrated portfolios

– Proprietary research and valuation models

– Emphasis on global sectors and industry-dominant companies

Page 26: Citywire berlin presentation final

26

MEET THE TEAM

Culture that promotes communication and collaboration

Alex Breese

Rebecca Young

Industrials Sector

Mark Martin

Healthcare Sector

James Dowey

Chief Economist

Douglas Turnbull

George Boyd-Bowman

Financials Sector

Harriet Grieve

Shelley McKeaveney

Adam Kelly

Leonard Cripps

Consumer Sectors

Felix Wintle

Head of US Equities

Healthcare Sector

Rob Burnett

Head of European Equities

Financials Sector

Ted Alexander

Kunal Desai

Technology & Telecoms Sector

Chris Taylor

Head of Research

Thomas Sinclair

William Rice

Oil & Gas Sector

Nicola Muirhead

Mining & Metals Sector

Robin Geffen

CEO

Fund Manager, Global Equities

Douglas McDowell

Head of

Client Investment Strategies

Ewan Thompson

Head of Emerging Market Equities

Mining & Metals Sector

Emma Stanford

Thomas Smith

Chemicals & Utilities Sector

Page 27: Citywire berlin presentation final

27

CONTACT DETAILS

Neptune Investment Management Limited

3 Shortlands, London W6 8DA

Tel: +44(0)20 3249 0100

Fax: +44(0)20 3249 0123

[email protected]

www.neptunefunds.com

Philippe Bretaudeau +44(0)20 3249 0179

Client Service and Sales Manager [email protected]

Henry Foster +44(0)20 3249 0180

Client Service Executive [email protected]

Calls may be recorded for monitoring and training purposes and for your protection

Page 28: Citywire berlin presentation final

28

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This presentation is only intended for Investment Professionals resident or domiciled in Germany. This material is not intended for the use of Retail

Clients.

This presentation document has been provided in English as additional information for those readers with a sufficient command of the English

language. This document is issued by Neptune Investment Management Limited (“Neptune”), 3 Shortlands, London, W6 8DA which is authorised

and regulated by the Financial Services Authority 25 The North Colonade, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HS. Details of our regulatory status and

authorisation by regulators in other countries are available from us on request. The Neptune web address is www.neptunefunds.com

Neptune has 29 UK domiciled funds authorised for public distribution by the FSA. The Neptune Emerging Markets Fund was authorised by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) as at 05.05.10 for public distribution in and from Germany. The remaining nine funds were authorised by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) as at 24.09.09 for public distribution in and from Germany. Further details can be located on the following German website http://www.bafin.de. Retail Clients should consult their Independent Financial Adviser or other authorised intermediary. This communication is only intended for persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations. The provision of investment services may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint yourself with any local laws and restrictions on the availability of any services described. None of our products are available to residents in the United States. Some information and statistical data herein has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to their accuracy or completeness. These are the analyst’s personal recommendations and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell. Neptune Investment Management Limited has produced this report for private circulation to Investment Professionals only and this document is not for onward distribution. The material is not intended for the use of Retail Clients. All information and advice is given in good faith but without any warranty. Please remember that that this Fund may have a high historic volatility rating and past performance should not be seen as a guide of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and your clients may not get back the amount originally invested. Any forecast, projection or target is indicative only, is not guaranteed in any way and is not a reliable indicator of future performance Investments in Emerging Markets are higher risk and potentially more volatile than those in established markets. These and other risks are describes in the prospectus which should be read carefully prior to investing. This Fund may invest more than 35% in government and public securities in a number of jurisdictions.

Page 29: Citywire berlin presentation final

29

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Any past performance data that has not been shown is due to the information not being available. The information provided is for information purposes only and is not intended to be considered as advice to invest in a particular fund. Neptune is not authorised to give investment advice and only provides information on Neptune products. The offer in Germany is made solely by means and on the basis of the published full and simplified prospectuses including any supplements thereof. The prospectuses and any supplements therefore have been electronically published on the website of the offer at http://http://www.neptunefunds.com/Navigate.aspx/Financial-Adviser/1/Literature/Literature-Library The information provided is for information purposes only and is not intended to be considered as advice to invest in a particular fund. The simplified and full prospectus (in German), the articles of incorporation or the certificate of incorporation, the audited annual and unaudited semi-annual report, the ACD contract from 10th February 2006 between the investment company and the ACD as well as the contract with the custodian bank from 10th February 2006 between the investment company, the custodian bank and the ACD are available from the Information Agent in printed form and free of charge: Marcard, Stein & Co AG Ballindamm 36 20095 Hamburg Germany Furthermore, the issuing price and conversion price of the investment certificated are available from the German Information Agent free of charge. For further information including the relevant definitions, please see the full prospectus Informationsstelle in Deutschland MARCARD, STEIN & CO Ballindamm36 D-20095 Hamburg hat in Deutschlean die Funktion der Informationsstelle ubernommen. Der vereinfachte und der ausfuhrliche Verkaufsprospekt, die Satzung der Gesellschaft beziehungsweise die Grundungsurkunde, die gepruften Jahresund ungepruften Halbjahresberichte, der ACD- Vertrag vom 10. Februar 2006 zwischen der Investmentgesellschaft und dem ACD sowie der Vertrag mit der Depotbank vom 10. Februar 2006 zwischen der Investmentgesellschaft, der Depotbank und dem ACD sind kostenlos in Papierm bei der deutschen Informationsstelle erhaltlich. Weiterhin sind bei der deutschen Informationsstelle kostenlos die Ausgabe- Rucknahme- und Umtauschpreise der Investmentanteile erhaltlich.