fy2015 opportunity day - ptt global...
TRANSCRIPT
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FY2015 Opportunity Day
Stock Exchange of Thailand, March 3, 2016
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DISCLAIMER
This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. PTTGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTTGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
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Agenda
3
2015 Financial Result
Strategic Execution
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Agenda
4
2015 Financial Result
Strategic Execution
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2015 Highlight
5
Approved investment in 400KTA mLLDPE plant ,
completed construction in ARO II expansion and COD
MEG plant improvement
Hold 50% share in PTTPM and PTTPL in order to be
well-integrated in operation, after integrated
PPCL in 2014.
Achieved gain on inventory hedging that ease impact
from stock loss
Effective Hedging Strategy
Continue in PTT Group
Restructuring
New Capacity Pipeline
Well-integrated through value chain with PTT to
maximize benefit of achieving high ethane flow
at 251T/h with 94% run rate
Improved in Ethane flow and
OLE operating rate
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Average and Ending Dubai Crude Price: USD/BBL
Average and Closing FX : THB/USD
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Business Environment & Operations Recap
6
o Surplus crude and weak demand pressured Dubai crude to decline from average at 51.9 USD/BBL in 1Q/15 to average at 40.7 USD/BBL in 4Q/15 (2015 year end closing at 31.8 USD/BBL). As a result, PTTGC reported Stock Loss & NRV totaling 3,602 M.THB for the year.
o FX Loss amounting to 2,288 M.THB, resulting from depreciation in THB against USD from average at 32.65 THB/USD in 1Q/15 to average at 35.84 in 4Q/15.
32.48
34.25
32.66 32.45 32.10 32.71 32.65 33.26 35.25 35.84
32.58 32.60 32.52 33.11 32.70
33.93
36.53 36.25
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Average FX Closing FX
96.6
50.9
104.5 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7
104.8 109.2
94.6
52.9 53.4 60.2
43.5
31.8
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Average Price Closing Price
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7
Gross Refinery Margin (USD/BBL)
4.41 5.45 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 5.40 4.16 6.23
(4.36) (1.25) (0.69)
0.73
(2.92)
(14.68)
(1.50)
2.22
(3.22) (2.47)
0.94 0.93
0.33 0.66 0.70
2.08
(0.31) (0.04) (0.03)
3.86
0.98
5.13 4.12
5.83 1.61
(7.69)
4.17 7.59
0.91
7.63
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV
Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting GRM
Products to Feed Margin (USD/Ton BTX)
174 217 166 86
290 164 219 216 183
251
(85.91) (8.57)
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(7.90)
40.44
(68.54) (398.22) (27.63)
54.93
(48.94) (27.79) (0.02)
(0.37)
- 2.54
88
209 158 127
222
(235)
191 271
134 226
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Market P2F Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRVHedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting P2F
Petroleum Products - Dubai Spread (USD/BBL)
Aromatics Products Spread (USD/Ton)
2014 2015 YoY BTX Utilization Rate 81% 74% -6% PX- Condensate 400 383 -5% BZ- Condensate 375 238 -36% Market P2F ($/Ton) 174 217 +24%
2014 2015 YoY CDU Utilization Rate 102% 100% -2% ULG95 – Dubai 14.3 18.3 +28% Jet - Dubai 15.9 13.9 -12% Diesel - Dubai 16.1 13.7 -15% Fuel Oil – Dubai (8.3) (5.0) +60% GRM on CDU ($/bbl) 5.61 7.13 +27%
Refinery & Aromatics Performance
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57% 57% 60% 54% 56% 59% 56% 54% 57% 60%
35% 35% 26% 35% 40% 36% 37% 38% 35% 31%
8% 8% 13% 11% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9%
3,727 3,899 799 932 965 1,032 991 932 964 1,012
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Ethane Other Gas Naphtha
8
Olefins Derivatives Prices and Spread (USD/Ton)
HDPE Price -20% YoY -7% QoQ
1,544
1,237 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448
1,188 1,375
1,234 1,153
1,543 1,234
1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181
1,375
1,224 1,158
1,571
1,249
1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440
1,192
1,401
1,244 1,158
1,113
948 1,182 1,093
1,143 1,035
903 1,027
1,025 837 861
491
935 951 913
647 494 563 461 445
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
HDPE (FILM) SEA LLDPE CFR SEA LDPE CFR SE AsiaMEG ACP Naphtha MOPJ
-12% YoY -8% QoQ
682 747
620 618 691
802 694
812 774 708
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
+9% YoY
HDPE – Naphtha ($/T) 2014 2015 YoY Olefins Utilization Rate 91% 94% +3% Polyethylene Utilization Rate 105% 104% -1% MEG Utilization Rate 95% 96% +1% HDPE Price 1,544 1,237 -20% MEG Price 1,113 948 -15% % Adj. EBITDA Margin 26%
24%
-2%
GAS : NAPHTHA Intake %
KTons
Olefins & Derivatives Performance
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Overview of Business Unit’s Performance
9
% Adj. EBITDA Margin 2014 2015
Business Unit :
Refinery 4 8
Aromatics 3 9
Olefins and Derivative 26 24
Green 4 6
HVS 5 7
Average 10 13
20%
6%
66%
2% 3%
3%
46%
18%
24%
6% 6%
FY2014 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure
550,909 MB 52,369 MB 45%
15%
30%
3% 7%
Sales Revenue
FY2015 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure
400,128 MB
27%
11% 55%
2% 4%
1%
Adjusted EBITDA
50,873 MB
Sales Revenue Adjusted EBITDA
(Unit: Million Baht) 2014 2015 YoY
% + /(-)
Sales Revenue 550,909 400,128 -27%
EBITDA 34,220 44,740 31%
EBITDA Margin (%) 6% 11% 5%
Net Profit 15,372 20,502 33%
EPS (Baht/Share) 3.41 4.55 33%
Adjusted EBITDA* 52,369 50,873 -3% Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)
10% 13% 3%
Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (Inventory ,NRV and extra ordinary item)
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10
FY2015 Income Statements Consolidated
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10
‘ 2014** 2015 YoY 4Q/2015
MB % MB % MB % MB %
Sales Revenue 550,909 100 400,128 100 (150,781) (27) 96,088 100
Feedstock Cost (449,497) (82) (304,672) (76) (144,825) (32) (71,547) (74)
Product to Feed Margin 101,412 18 95,456 24 (5,956) (6) 24,541 26
1 Variable Cost (28,433) (5) (25,752) (6) (2,681) (9) (6,585) (7)
2 Fixed Cost (16,389) (3) (16,143) (4) (246) (2) (4,652) (5)
3 Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV (15,910) (3) (3,602) (1) 12,308 77 (2,053) (2)
4 Gain/(Loss) Commodity Hedging 2,249 0 2,645 1 396 18 2,853 3
5 Other Income 4,353 1 5,023 1 670 15 1,847 2
6 SG&A (10,823) (2) (10,356) (3) (467) (4) (3,033) (3)
7 รายการพิเศษ
คา่เผ่ือการปรบัโครงสรา้งธรุกิจ (2,239) (0) 0 0 (2,239) N/A 0 0
ขาดทนุจากการดอ้ยคา่ 0 0 (2,531) (1) 2,531 N/A (2,531) (3)
EBITDA 34,220 6 44,740 11 10,520 31 10,387 11
Depreciation & Amortization (15,890) (3) (16,382) (4) 492 3 (4,209) (4)
EBIT 18,330 3 28,358 7 10,028 55 6,178 6
8 Finance Cost (4,452) (1) (3,967) (1) (485) (11) (937) (1)
9 FX Gain/(Loss) 618 0 (2,338) (1) (2,956) (478) 510 1
10 Shares of profit/(loss) from investments 177 0 711 0 534 302 (210) (0)
11 Income Tax Expense (581) (0) (1,984) (0) 1,403 241 (769) (1)
Net Profit 14,092 3 20,780 5 6,688 47 4,772 5
Profit/(loss) attributable to:
Owners of the Company 15,372 3 20,502 5 5,130 33 4,690 5
Non-controlling interests (1,280) (0) 278 0 1,558 122 82 0
Adjusted EBITDA* 52,369 10 50,873 13 (1,496) (3) 14,971 16
Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (excludes Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV) ** Restated FY2014 Financial Statements from the implementation of new accounting standards (Pack 5) and purchasing PTTPM and PTTPL shares under
common control
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2016 Outlook
11
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Projected to see correction in dubai price to be around $30-40/bbl on average.
• Demand & Supply balance is expected to be in 2H16 from less production from non-OPEC but will have some disruption from Iran volume.
AROMATICS
• Although, market is in oversupply situation but the product spread is expected to be improved from having low feedstock cost as low crude price.
• Capacity outage in 1H/16 will ease up oversupply situation
• Utilization rate is expected to increase from 74% to 88% with expanded capacity of 170 KTA of aromatics product.
REFINERY
• Demand growth over supply growth for refinery product both in gasoline and middle distillate. This help to ease market situation.
• Utilization rate drop from 100% to 84% due to planned shutdown in 2Q/16. GRM is expected to slightly decrease to approx. $ 5/bbl
OLEFINS & DERIVATIVES
• Improve in internal factor from expecting more gas flow to increase u rate of olefins and inventory management to ease effect from PTTPE turnaround. HDPE – MOPJ spread is maintain at more than $700/T.
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Agenda
12
2015 Financial Result
Strategic Execution
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Map Ta Phut Retrofit & Synergies through PTT group restructuring
13
Timeline : 2015 2018
Feasibility Study
2020
1Q/18 Construction
COD 1Q/20
2016
ITB
To study a new naphtha cracker for increasing flexibility of feedstock, especially in feedstock price volatile period, and secure downstream production along value chain as well as create value added to internal feedstock.
Readiness on location, supporting facilities & strategic partner e.g. Thai Tank Terminal
Fulfill downstream product portfolio via partnership e.g. PTT Group operating asset injection and position as a flagship in petrochemical
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PO/Polyols Project Updates
2016 2017
Set up JV company
2019
2Q/17 Construction
COD 2Q/19
Timeline :
Isocyanate • TDI/HDI
EO
Polyols System House PO Propylene
PU Formulation PU Raw Materials Feedstock
Cumene
1
2 160 KTA
• MDI
Progress :
Kick off meeting with Foster Wheeler on Jan 04, 2016
Expect to complete FEED package by Jul 31, 2016
#1 Public participation meeting on Nov 26, 2015
#2 Public participation meeting on Mar 31, 2016
Polyols - Completed 1st tier market survey with partners in 6 target countries
more than 80 customers on Dec 15, 2015 and will continue in other countries
PO - Expect to complete market survey with partner in 3 target countries more than 25 customers by Mar 15, 2016
- Under developing offtake agreement with 3 offtakers with total volume covering 80% of total production capacity (incl. captive vol. for Polyols
Marketing & entry strategy will be completed by Jul 31, 2016
FEED
EIA
MARKET
Capacity 200 KTA PO
Licensor
Capacity 130 KTA Polyols
40 KTA PU System
Licensor
PO
Polyols/ System House
Majority Shareholder
Majority Shareholder
Project Scopes :
http://www.vencorex.com/http://www.sumitomo-chem.co.jp/english/
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Opportunity in New Geographies
World Scale Ethane Cracker • Utilize ethane from shale gas as feedstock • Capacity : 1 MTA Ethylene • Derivatives
• HDPE : 700 KTA • MEG : 500 KTA • EO : 100 KTA
• Location : Dilles Bottom, Ohio
US Petrochemical Complex Indonesia Project
• Investment cost justify investment return • Enough ethane capacity with capped price • Partner can distribute products in N. America
Key Criteria for FID
Indonesia remains deficit in PE with additional opportunity in AEC, especially CLMV countries
Project Update
• FEED : FEED progress is approximately at 31%. EPC termsheet has been issued
• Feedstock : Working with a major ethane provider to finalize contract term
• Marketing : Continue conducting market survey phase 2 as well as exploring logistic providers options
• Permit: Preparing air permit application
KTA
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
D&S in AEC Country
VN Supply PH Supply MY Supply TH Supply
VN Demand PH Demand MY Demand TH Demand
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Existing Non Captive Upstream
and Downstream 8,948 KTA
HDI Deriv. 12 KTA
Phenol II 405 KTA Aromatics 170 KTA
HDI Monomer 70 KTA
mLLDPE 400 KTA
PO/Polyol 250 KTA
MTP Retrofit 761 KTA
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Strategic Investment
16
ARO2 Phenol2 HDI Thailand HDI France MLLDPE PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit
CAPEX 128.8 MUSD 345 MUSD 43 MUSD 18 MUSD 288.2 MUSD TBC TBC
Additional PetChem* (per year)
PX 115 KTA BZ 35 KTA OX 20 KTA
PH 250 KTA AC 155 KTA
HDI Derivative 12 KTA
HDI Monomer 70 KTA
MLLDPE 400 KTA Hexene-1 34 KTA
PO 200 KTA Polyol
130 KTA
Ethylene 500 KTA Propylene 261 KTA
Period Q1’16 Q2’16 Q2’16 Q2’16 2018 2019 2020 EBITDA Uplift/Year** 24 MUSD 63 MUSD 9 MUSD 24 MUSD 59 MUSD
• 100% stake of additional capacity
** Estimate EBITDA uplift with 100% stake at mid cycle price
8,948 KTA
10,677 KTA
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For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at [email protected]
Thank You
17
1 Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP-Corporate Finance & IR [email protected] +662-265-85742 Jittasak Soonthornpan IR Manager [email protected] +662-265-81723 Prang Chudasring IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-83274 Supika Charudhanes IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-85335 Nattchanon Chawinsittangkul IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-83646 Chutima Jarikasem IR Coordinator [email protected] +662-140-8713
mailto:[email protected]
Slide Number 1DISCLAIMER AgendaAgenda2015 HighlightBusiness Environment &� Operations RecapSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Overview of Business Unit’s PerformanceFY2015 Income Statements Consolidated2016 OutlookAgendaMap Ta Phut Retrofit �& Synergies through PTT group restructuringPO/Polyols Project UpdatesOpportunity in New GeographiesStrategic InvestmentSlide Number 17