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FY2015 Opportunity Day Stock Exchange of Thailand, March 3, 2016

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  • FY2015 Opportunity Day

    Stock Exchange of Thailand, March 3, 2016

  • DISCLAIMER

    This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. PTTGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTTGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.

  • Agenda

    3

    2015 Financial Result

    Strategic Execution

  • Agenda

    4

    2015 Financial Result

    Strategic Execution

  • 2015 Highlight

    5

    Approved investment in 400KTA mLLDPE plant ,

    completed construction in ARO II expansion and COD

    MEG plant improvement

    Hold 50% share in PTTPM and PTTPL in order to be

    well-integrated in operation, after integrated

    PPCL in 2014.

    Achieved gain on inventory hedging that ease impact

    from stock loss

    Effective Hedging Strategy

    Continue in PTT Group

    Restructuring

    New Capacity Pipeline

    Well-integrated through value chain with PTT to

    maximize benefit of achieving high ethane flow

    at 251T/h with 94% run rate

    Improved in Ethane flow and

    OLE operating rate

  • Average and Ending Dubai Crude Price: USD/BBL

    Average and Closing FX : THB/USD

    6

    Business Environment & Operations Recap

    6

    o Surplus crude and weak demand pressured Dubai crude to decline from average at 51.9 USD/BBL in 1Q/15 to average at 40.7 USD/BBL in 4Q/15 (2015 year end closing at 31.8 USD/BBL). As a result, PTTGC reported Stock Loss & NRV totaling 3,602 M.THB for the year.

    o FX Loss amounting to 2,288 M.THB, resulting from depreciation in THB against USD from average at 32.65 THB/USD in 1Q/15 to average at 35.84 in 4Q/15.

    32.48

    34.25

    32.66 32.45 32.10 32.71 32.65 33.26 35.25 35.84

    32.58 32.60 32.52 33.11 32.70

    33.93

    36.53 36.25

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    Average FX Closing FX

    96.6

    50.9

    104.5 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7

    104.8 109.2

    94.6

    52.9 53.4 60.2

    43.5

    31.8

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    Average Price Closing Price

  • 7

    Gross Refinery Margin (USD/BBL)

    4.41 5.45 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 5.40 4.16 6.23

    (4.36) (1.25) (0.69)

    0.73

    (2.92)

    (14.68)

    (1.50)

    2.22

    (3.22) (2.47)

    0.94 0.93

    0.33 0.66 0.70

    2.08

    (0.31) (0.04) (0.03)

    3.86

    0.98

    5.13 4.12

    5.83 1.61

    (7.69)

    4.17 7.59

    0.91

    7.63

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV

    Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting GRM

    Products to Feed Margin (USD/Ton BTX)

    174 217 166 86

    290 164 219 216 183

    251

    (85.91) (8.57)

    -

    (7.90)

    40.44

    (68.54) (398.22) (27.63)

    54.93

    (48.94) (27.79) (0.02)

    (0.37)

    - 2.54

    88

    209 158 127

    222

    (235)

    191 271

    134 226

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    Market P2F Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRVHedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting P2F

    Petroleum Products - Dubai Spread (USD/BBL)

    Aromatics Products Spread (USD/Ton)

    2014 2015 YoY BTX Utilization Rate 81% 74% -6% PX- Condensate 400 383 -5% BZ- Condensate 375 238 -36% Market P2F ($/Ton) 174 217 +24%

    2014 2015 YoY CDU Utilization Rate 102% 100% -2% ULG95 – Dubai 14.3 18.3 +28% Jet - Dubai 15.9 13.9 -12% Diesel - Dubai 16.1 13.7 -15% Fuel Oil – Dubai (8.3) (5.0) +60% GRM on CDU ($/bbl) 5.61 7.13 +27%

    Refinery & Aromatics Performance

  • 57% 57% 60% 54% 56% 59% 56% 54% 57% 60%

    35% 35% 26% 35% 40% 36% 37% 38% 35% 31%

    8% 8% 13% 11% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9%

    3,727 3,899 799 932 965 1,032 991 932 964 1,012

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    Ethane Other Gas Naphtha

    8

    Olefins Derivatives Prices and Spread (USD/Ton)

    HDPE Price -20% YoY -7% QoQ

    1,544

    1,237 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448

    1,188 1,375

    1,234 1,153

    1,543 1,234

    1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181

    1,375

    1,224 1,158

    1,571

    1,249

    1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440

    1,192

    1,401

    1,244 1,158

    1,113

    948 1,182 1,093

    1,143 1,035

    903 1,027

    1,025 837 861

    491

    935 951 913

    647 494 563 461 445

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    HDPE (FILM) SEA LLDPE CFR SEA LDPE CFR SE AsiaMEG ACP Naphtha MOPJ

    -12% YoY -8% QoQ

    682 747

    620 618 691

    802 694

    812 774 708

    2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

    +9% YoY

    HDPE – Naphtha ($/T) 2014 2015 YoY Olefins Utilization Rate 91% 94% +3% Polyethylene Utilization Rate 105% 104% -1% MEG Utilization Rate 95% 96% +1% HDPE Price 1,544 1,237 -20% MEG Price 1,113 948 -15% % Adj. EBITDA Margin 26%

    24%

    -2%

    GAS : NAPHTHA Intake %

    KTons

    Olefins & Derivatives Performance

  • Overview of Business Unit’s Performance

    9

    % Adj. EBITDA Margin 2014 2015

    Business Unit :

    Refinery 4 8

    Aromatics 3 9

    Olefins and Derivative 26 24

    Green 4 6

    HVS 5 7

    Average 10 13

    20%

    6%

    66%

    2% 3%

    3%

    46%

    18%

    24%

    6% 6%

    FY2014 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure

    550,909 MB 52,369 MB 45%

    15%

    30%

    3% 7%

    Sales Revenue

    FY2015 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure

    400,128 MB

    27%

    11% 55%

    2% 4%

    1%

    Adjusted EBITDA

    50,873 MB

    Sales Revenue Adjusted EBITDA

    (Unit: Million Baht) 2014 2015 YoY

    % + /(-)

    Sales Revenue 550,909 400,128 -27%

    EBITDA 34,220 44,740 31%

    EBITDA Margin (%) 6% 11% 5%

    Net Profit 15,372 20,502 33%

    EPS (Baht/Share) 3.41 4.55 33%

    Adjusted EBITDA* 52,369 50,873 -3% Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)

    10% 13% 3%

    Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (Inventory ,NRV and extra ordinary item)

  • 10

    FY2015 Income Statements Consolidated

    ***

    10

    ‘ 2014** 2015 YoY 4Q/2015

    MB % MB % MB % MB %

    Sales Revenue 550,909 100 400,128 100 (150,781) (27) 96,088 100

    Feedstock Cost (449,497) (82) (304,672) (76) (144,825) (32) (71,547) (74)

    Product to Feed Margin 101,412 18 95,456 24 (5,956) (6) 24,541 26

    1 Variable Cost (28,433) (5) (25,752) (6) (2,681) (9) (6,585) (7)

    2 Fixed Cost (16,389) (3) (16,143) (4) (246) (2) (4,652) (5)

    3 Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV (15,910) (3) (3,602) (1) 12,308 77 (2,053) (2)

    4 Gain/(Loss) Commodity Hedging 2,249 0 2,645 1 396 18 2,853 3

    5 Other Income 4,353 1 5,023 1 670 15 1,847 2

    6 SG&A (10,823) (2) (10,356) (3) (467) (4) (3,033) (3)

    7 รายการพิเศษ

    คา่เผ่ือการปรบัโครงสรา้งธรุกิจ (2,239) (0) 0 0 (2,239) N/A 0 0

    ขาดทนุจากการดอ้ยคา่ 0 0 (2,531) (1) 2,531 N/A (2,531) (3)

    EBITDA 34,220 6 44,740 11 10,520 31 10,387 11

    Depreciation & Amortization (15,890) (3) (16,382) (4) 492 3 (4,209) (4)

    EBIT 18,330 3 28,358 7 10,028 55 6,178 6

    8 Finance Cost (4,452) (1) (3,967) (1) (485) (11) (937) (1)

    9 FX Gain/(Loss) 618 0 (2,338) (1) (2,956) (478) 510 1

    10 Shares of profit/(loss) from investments 177 0 711 0 534 302 (210) (0)

    11 Income Tax Expense (581) (0) (1,984) (0) 1,403 241 (769) (1)

    Net Profit 14,092 3 20,780 5 6,688 47 4,772 5

    Profit/(loss) attributable to:

    Owners of the Company 15,372 3 20,502 5 5,130 33 4,690 5

    Non-controlling interests (1,280) (0) 278 0 1,558 122 82 0

    Adjusted EBITDA* 52,369 10 50,873 13 (1,496) (3) 14,971 16

    Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (excludes Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV) ** Restated FY2014 Financial Statements from the implementation of new accounting standards (Pack 5) and purchasing PTTPM and PTTPL shares under

    common control

  • 2016 Outlook

    11

    KEY ASSUMPTIONS

    • Projected to see correction in dubai price to be around $30-40/bbl on average.

    • Demand & Supply balance is expected to be in 2H16 from less production from non-OPEC but will have some disruption from Iran volume.

    AROMATICS

    • Although, market is in oversupply situation but the product spread is expected to be improved from having low feedstock cost as low crude price.

    • Capacity outage in 1H/16 will ease up oversupply situation

    • Utilization rate is expected to increase from 74% to 88% with expanded capacity of 170 KTA of aromatics product.

    REFINERY

    • Demand growth over supply growth for refinery product both in gasoline and middle distillate. This help to ease market situation.

    • Utilization rate drop from 100% to 84% due to planned shutdown in 2Q/16. GRM is expected to slightly decrease to approx. $ 5/bbl

    OLEFINS & DERIVATIVES

    • Improve in internal factor from expecting more gas flow to increase u rate of olefins and inventory management to ease effect from PTTPE turnaround. HDPE – MOPJ spread is maintain at more than $700/T.

  • Agenda

    12

    2015 Financial Result

    Strategic Execution

  • Map Ta Phut Retrofit & Synergies through PTT group restructuring

    13

    Timeline : 2015 2018

    Feasibility Study

    2020

    1Q/18 Construction

    COD 1Q/20

    2016

    ITB

    To study a new naphtha cracker for increasing flexibility of feedstock, especially in feedstock price volatile period, and secure downstream production along value chain as well as create value added to internal feedstock.

    Readiness on location, supporting facilities & strategic partner e.g. Thai Tank Terminal

    Fulfill downstream product portfolio via partnership e.g. PTT Group operating asset injection and position as a flagship in petrochemical

  • PO/Polyols Project Updates

    2016 2017

    Set up JV company

    2019

    2Q/17 Construction

    COD 2Q/19

    Timeline :

    Isocyanate • TDI/HDI

    EO

    Polyols System House PO Propylene

    PU Formulation PU Raw Materials Feedstock

    Cumene

    1

    2 160 KTA

    • MDI

    Progress :

    Kick off meeting with Foster Wheeler on Jan 04, 2016

    Expect to complete FEED package by Jul 31, 2016

    #1 Public participation meeting on Nov 26, 2015

    #2 Public participation meeting on Mar 31, 2016

    Polyols - Completed 1st tier market survey with partners in 6 target countries

    more than 80 customers on Dec 15, 2015 and will continue in other countries

    PO - Expect to complete market survey with partner in 3 target countries more than 25 customers by Mar 15, 2016

    - Under developing offtake agreement with 3 offtakers with total volume covering 80% of total production capacity (incl. captive vol. for Polyols

    Marketing & entry strategy will be completed by Jul 31, 2016

    FEED

    EIA

    MARKET

    Capacity 200 KTA PO

    Licensor

    Capacity 130 KTA Polyols

    40 KTA PU System

    Licensor

    PO

    Polyols/ System House

    Majority Shareholder

    Majority Shareholder

    Project Scopes :

    http://www.vencorex.com/http://www.sumitomo-chem.co.jp/english/

  • Opportunity in New Geographies

    World Scale Ethane Cracker • Utilize ethane from shale gas as feedstock • Capacity : 1 MTA Ethylene • Derivatives

    • HDPE : 700 KTA • MEG : 500 KTA • EO : 100 KTA

    • Location : Dilles Bottom, Ohio

    US Petrochemical Complex Indonesia Project

    • Investment cost justify investment return • Enough ethane capacity with capped price • Partner can distribute products in N. America

    Key Criteria for FID

    Indonesia remains deficit in PE with additional opportunity in AEC, especially CLMV countries

    Project Update

    • FEED : FEED progress is approximately at 31%. EPC termsheet has been issued

    • Feedstock : Working with a major ethane provider to finalize contract term

    • Marketing : Continue conducting market survey phase 2 as well as exploring logistic providers options

    • Permit: Preparing air permit application

    KTA

    -

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    D&S in AEC Country

    VN Supply PH Supply MY Supply TH Supply

    VN Demand PH Demand MY Demand TH Demand

  • Existing Non Captive Upstream

    and Downstream 8,948 KTA

    HDI Deriv. 12 KTA

    Phenol II 405 KTA Aromatics 170 KTA

    HDI Monomer 70 KTA

    mLLDPE 400 KTA

    PO/Polyol 250 KTA

    MTP Retrofit 761 KTA

    8,000

    8,500

    9,000

    9,500

    10,000

    10,500

    11,000

    2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

    Strategic Investment

    16

    ARO2 Phenol2 HDI Thailand HDI France MLLDPE PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit

    CAPEX 128.8 MUSD 345 MUSD 43 MUSD 18 MUSD 288.2 MUSD TBC TBC

    Additional PetChem* (per year)

    PX 115 KTA BZ 35 KTA OX 20 KTA

    PH 250 KTA AC 155 KTA

    HDI Derivative 12 KTA

    HDI Monomer 70 KTA

    MLLDPE 400 KTA Hexene-1 34 KTA

    PO 200 KTA Polyol

    130 KTA

    Ethylene 500 KTA Propylene 261 KTA

    Period Q1’16 Q2’16 Q2’16 Q2’16 2018 2019 2020 EBITDA Uplift/Year** 24 MUSD 63 MUSD 9 MUSD 24 MUSD 59 MUSD

    • 100% stake of additional capacity

    ** Estimate EBITDA uplift with 100% stake at mid cycle price

    8,948 KTA

    10,677 KTA

  • For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at [email protected]

    Thank You

    17

    1 Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP-Corporate Finance & IR [email protected] +662-265-85742 Jittasak Soonthornpan IR Manager [email protected] +662-265-81723 Prang Chudasring IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-83274 Supika Charudhanes IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-85335 Nattchanon Chawinsittangkul IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-83646 Chutima Jarikasem IR Coordinator [email protected] +662-140-8713

    mailto:[email protected]

    Slide Number 1DISCLAIMER AgendaAgenda2015 HighlightBusiness Environment &� Operations RecapSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Overview of Business Unit’s PerformanceFY2015 Income Statements Consolidated2016 OutlookAgendaMap Ta Phut Retrofit �& Synergies through PTT group restructuringPO/Polyols Project UpdatesOpportunity in New GeographiesStrategic InvestmentSlide Number 17