future or fantasy - space tourism from the perspective of architecture and design professions

FUTURE OR FANTASY - SPACE TOURISM FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ARCHITECTURE AND DESIGN PROFESSIONS.

D a v i d Y u - K i n g W o n g ARB, RIBA

London, United Kingdom

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.

• Space Tourism is a well versed term to the space community - not so for many traditionally non-space professions.

• a lack of communication between the space community and these traditionally earth-bound professions has given rise to many misunderstandings and false expectations.

• This paper strives to investigate the general opinions of mainstream designers towards the emerging space tourism industry

• to establish a quantitative basis for assessing the “status quo” of the design profession.

Introduction

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Methodology

• a survey questionnaire targeting architecture and design professionals

• 11 questions on the space tourism, space architecture and space in general

• 4 questions on the background information on the respondents.

• The survey were primarily conducted electronically through network of architecture professional contacts

• Physical handouts of the questionnaire at the “Green/Space” seminar during the London Festival of Architecture (June 2010)

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Demography• survey sample size = 190• survey is primarily aimed at architecture professionals, but it is also open towards the wider design community.

18-257%

25-3558%

35-5023%

50-659%

65+3%

18-3565%

35-65+35%

Survey Demography: Age Survey Demography: Age


student6%

graduates18%

registered31%

senior15%

academics8%

freelance6%

retired1%

other15%

architecture pro-fessionals

63%

other design professionals

37%

Survey Demography: Professions Survey Demography: Professions


UK54%

US20%

Europe18%

Rest of the World7%

male68%

female32%

Survey Demography: Countries Survey Demography: Genders

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Question 1Do you believe that some people will be living on another planet or in the outer space, for private, recreational or commercial purposes in the future?

Overall Results

Yes84%

No16%

[1.00] - Overallpositive responses from the majority of survey participants.


Yes; 79%

No; 21%

Yes; 93%

No; 7%

[1.02] - Ageyounger age groups appear to be less optimistic towards the future prospect of space tourism when compared to older age groups.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


[1.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals appear to be less optimistic towards the future prospect of space tourism when compared to the other design professionals.

Architecture professionals Other design professionals

Yes; 80%

No; 20%

Yes; 91%

No; 9%

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Question 2Do you think architecture as a profession should be involved in the design of space habitat / space architecture for outer space and other planets?

Overall Results

Yes90%

No10%

[2.00] - Overallpositive responses from the majority of survey participants.


[2.02] - Ageyounger survey participants appear to be slightly less enthusiastic to the idea that architecture as a profession should get involved in the design of space habitat / space architecture.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+

Question 2Do you think architecture as a profession should be involved in the design of space habitat / space architecture for outer space and other planets?

Yes; 89%

No; 11%

Yes; 95%

No; 5%


[2.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals appear to be slightly less enthusiastic to the idea that architecture as a profession should get involved in the design of space habitat / space architecture.


Question 2Do you think architecture as a profession should be involved in the design of space habitat / space architecture for outer space and other planets?

Yes; 89%

No; 11%

Yes; 95%

No; 5%

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Question 3When do you think space tourism as an emerging industry will become accessible to the general public, as the aviation industry did in the later half of the 20th century?

Overall Results

[3.00] - Overallthere is no consensus among the survey participants on the timescale of when space tourism could become accessible to the general public..

10%

23%

20%

28%

19%

within 10 years

within 20 years

within 30 years

within 40 years

more than 40 years


[3.03] - ProfessionsArchitecture professionals expect a longer time scale on average for space tourism to become accessible to general public, when compared to other professional groups.

A significantly higher percentage of architecture professionals believe that space tourism is not going to become accessible to the general public in foreseeable future.


Question 3

7%

23%

19%26%

24%

<10 <20 <30 <40 >40

16%

19%

19%

34%

12%

<10 <20 <30 <40 >40

When do you think space tourism as an emerging industry will become accessible to the general public, as the aviation industry did in the later half of the 20th century?


[3.04] - GendersFemale survey participants expect a longer time scale on average for space tourism to become accessible to general public, when comparing to its male counterparts.

Male Female

Question 3When do you think space tourism as an emerging industry will become accessible to the general public, as the aviation industry did in the later half of the 20th century?

12%

21%

21%

26%

19%

<10 <20 <30 <40 >40

6%

22%

16%36%

20%

<10 <20 <30 <40 >40

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Question 4When do you think space tourism as an emerging industry will become accessible to the general public, as the aviation industry did in the later half of the 20th century?

Overall Results

[4.00] - OverallOver a third of all survey participants express a very strong interest in space and is keen to converge their general interests in space with their professional careers.

36%

21%

30%

9%

4%1 - I am very interested in most space related subjects, and have been following the latest news and development related to space on a regular basis. I am also very keen to the idea of converging my general interest in space with my professional interests

2 - I am interested in many space related subjects, and have been fol-lowing major news and development related to space on occasions. However I have not considered the possibility of combining my in-terest in space with my professional interest in design.

3 - I have some interest in space related subjects, but have not been actively following any space related news and development.

4 - I have little interest to space related subjects; it is relevant only as references to some of my other more profound interests.

5 - I do not have any interest in space related subjects whatsoever.


[4.01] - CountriesUK survey participants express a significantly lower level of interest in space on average when compared to survey participants from US and Europe.

UK Rest of the World


26%

21%

41%

7%5%

1 2 3 4 5

47%

25%

19%

6% 3%

1 2 3 4 5

66%

17%

3%

14%

1 2 3 4 5

36%

18%

27%

9%

9%

1 2 3 4 5

US Europe


[4.02] - Ageyounger survey participants express a lower level of interest in space on average when compared to those from the older age groups.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


35%

18%

30%

11%

6%

1 2 3 4 5

44%

27%

25%

4%

1 2 3 4 5


[4.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals express a significantly lower level of interests in space on average when compared to survey participants from other professional groups.


30%

20%

34%

10%

5%

1 2 3 4 5

52%

22%

19%

5% 2%

1 2 3 4 5


IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Question 5Please choose one of the following answers which best describes your opinion towards the space tourism industry and its associated services.

Overall Results

[[5.00] - Overallover two-thirds of survey participants express positive opinions towards space tourism industry and its associated services

17%

13%

41%

18%

11%1%

Great opportunities – taking proactive approach towards the space industry, willing to invest significant resources and strive to become one of the leader in the emerging market. (positive)

Enthusiastic – willing to invest limited resources in the hope of gaining a foothold in the emerging market when the projected growth is realised. (posi-tive)

Interested – passively keep track on related development but no immediate ac-tions or plans for it. (positive)

Indifferent – “does not concern me”; doubtful to its signifiance or relevance to my career or profession. (negative)

Contempt – waste of recourses; distraction to the real issues around the world and to the profession. (negative)

Do not know enough to comment.


[5.01] - CountriesUK survey participants have, on average, expressed a less positive opinion towards space tourism when compared to survey participants from US and Europe.

UK Rest of the WorldUS Europe

Question 5Please choose one of the following answers which best describes your opinion towards the space tourism industry and its associated services.

65%

35%

positive negative

75%

22%

positive negative

unknown

86%

14%

positive negative

64%

36%

positive negative


[5.02] - Ageyounger survey participants have, on average, expressed less positive opinion towards space tourism when compared to those from the older age groups.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


65%

35%

positive negative unknown

82%

16%



[5.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals have, on average, expressed a less positive opinion towards space tourism when compared to survey participants from other professional groups.



67%

33%

positive negative

78%

21%



[5.04] - Gendersfemale survey participants have, on average, expressed a slightly less positive opinion towards space tourism when compared to male survey participants.

Male Female


73%

26%


66%

34%

positive negative


[6.00] - Overallsurvey results indicate a broad spectrum of opinions - no majority trend can be established.

survey participants have on average, indicated a lesser interest in project management and system engineering than the more design oriented services.

Overall Results

Question 6Please rate the following professional services that you would like to provide to the space tourism industry based on your own interests:

concept design

overall mission architecture design

interior, details & human factor design

project management

system engineering

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

not interested little interested interested highly interested


[6.00] - Overallsurvey results indicate a broad spectrum of opinions - no majority trend can be established.

survey participants have on average, indicated a lesser interest in project management and system engineering than the more design oriented services.

Average of Interest

Question 6Please rate the following professional services that you would like to provide to the space tourism industry based on your own interests:

concept design

overall mission architecture design

interior, details & human factor design

project management

system engineering

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

2.94

2.70

2.79

2.19

2.18

average rating


[7.00] - Overallsurvey results indicate a broad spectrum of opinions - the largest opinion group (national space agencies) represents only a little over a quarter of the total survey responses.

Around half of the survey participants who choose the "other" category believe in multi-lateral efforts instead of relying on a "champion"

Overall Results

Question 7Who do you think should act as the "champions" for architects and design professionals for their involvement in the space tourism industry?

national space agencies (NASA, ESA, etc.)

28%

professional institutes (RIBA, AIA, etc.)

13%

influential space entrepreneurs (Richard Branson, etc.)

17%

established community of space architects (SICSA, spacearchitect.org, etc.)

24%

celebrity architects and designers (Norman Foster,

etc.)6%

other13%


[7.01] - Countriesmarginal differences in opinions between survey participants from UK, US and Europe.

Although not considered to be the prime candidate, UK survey participants have expressed a higher expectation (ranked 3rd in UK) of the professional architecture institutes, of its "champion" role into space tourism than any other countries (ranked 5th in US, 6th in Europe and rest of the world)



25%

9%

22%

22%

3%

19%

26%

18%

13%

22%

6%

15%

national space agencies

professional architecture institutes

space entrepreneurs

space architecture community

celebrity architects and designers

other

34%

3%

21%

24%

10%

7% 18%

18%

36%

9%

18%


[7.02] - Ageyounger survey participants are on average, more likely to believe that national space agencies would do more for architects and design professionals than any other groups.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


31%

9%

16%

23%

8%

14%



space entrepreneurs



other

18%

18%

18%

25%

4%

16%


[7.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals are more likely to believe that national space agencies would do more for architects and design professionals for their involvement in the space tourism industry than any other groups.

other design professionals tend to believe that the established space architecture community would do more for them instead.



36%

14%18%

17%

7%7%



space entrepreneurs



other

10%

9%

14%

34%

5%

28%


[8.00] - OverallAlmost half of the total survey participants believe that they will be able to receive the most useful professional support and guidance from the national space agencies.

Overall Results

Question 8 If you were to engage design works in relation to space tourism, from whom would you expect to receive the most useful professional support and guidance?

national space agencies (NASA, ESA, etc.)

46%

professional institutes (RIBA, AIA, etc.)10%

influential space en-trepreneurs (Richard

Branson, etc.)10%

established community of space architects (SICSA, spacearchitect.org, etc.)

27%

celebrity architects and designers (Norman Foster,

etc.)1%

other7%


[8.01] - Countriesmarginal differences in opinions between survey participants from different countries.

survey participants from Europe tend to believe that they are as likely to receive useful support and professional guidance from the space architecture community as from the national space agencies.



44%

9%

19%

25%

3%

45%

10%8%

28%

1%8%

national space agenciesprofessional architecture institutesspace entrepreneursspace architecture communitycelebrity architects and designersother

41%

10%7%

38%

3%

45%

9%

27%

18%


[8.02] - Ageolder age groups tend to believe that they are as likely to receive useful support and professional guidance from the space architecture community as from the national space agencies.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


47%

10%

9%

27%

1% 6%



space entrepreneurs



other

38%

9%11%

33%

9%


[8.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals tend to believe that they are more likely to receive useful professional support and guidance from the national space agencies than any other groups.

architecture professionals as a group do not seem to have much expectation of the professional architecture institutes in providing useful professional support and guidance on the subject.

Question 8


If you were to engage design works in relation to space tourism, from whom would you expect to receive the most useful professional support and guidance?

47%

10%

10%

26%

1% 5%



space entrepreneurs



other

38%

9%9%

34%

11%


[8.04] - Gendersfemale survey participants tend to believe that they are as likely to receive useful support and professional guidance from the space architecture community as from the national space agencies.

Question 8

Male Female

If you were to engage design works in relation to space tourism, from whom would you expect to receive the most useful professional support and guidance?

48%

9%

10%

26%

7%



space entrepreneurs



other

37%

10%8%

35%

2%8%


[9.00] - OverallAlmost a third of all survey participants indicate that they will consider accepting the design commission without fee.

Another third of all survey participants indicate that they will consider accepting the design commission providing they can get paid at least the bare minimum fee for the work.

Only a minority indicate that they would not consider taking up the commission at all.

Overall Results

Question 9

32%

4%

37%

18%

9%

Accept the commission, consider the expense an investment to expand your company's portfolio and design capability

Accept the commission, but only because you are unwilling to refuse an estab-lished client

Accept the commission, but only if you get paid at least a bare minimum fee for the feasibility studies

Decline the commission, unless you can negotiate a profit deal from it

Decline the commission, simply not interested

In a hypothetical scenario; an established client of yours (who is not known to be previously engaged with the space tourism industry) asked your company to carry out a 100 man-hour feasibility study on a preliminary space hotel design on a no fee basis. No guarantee was given to the potential opportunity of progressing to the later stages of design. Which of the following answers best describes your likely decision?


[9.03] - Professionsarchitecture professionals are on average less likely to consider accepting the commission without fee than other design professionals.


Question 9In a hypothetical scenario; an established client of yours (who is not known to be previously engaged with the space tourism industry) asked your company to carry out a 100 man-hour feasibility study on a preliminary space hotel design on a no fee basis. No guarantee was given to the potential opportunity of progressing to the later stages of design. Which of the following answers best describes your likely decision?

28%

5%

39%

18%

9%

Accept commission with no fee

Accept commission to maintain established client

Accept commission with minimum fee

Decline commission unless profit

Decline commission, not interested

42%

2%36%

15%

5%


[10.00] - OverallOver half of all survey participants indicate that they are ready, or have plan to acquire essential capacity if necessary, to develop a space hotel design in detail.

Over a third of all survey participants considered themselves not ready and do not know from where to develop the essential know-how.

Overall Results

Question 10Based on the same hypothetical scenario set out in the previous question; On the basis of a successful feasibility study, your client would like to offer you / your company an opportunity to follow through to the preliminary space hotel design and develop it in detail, at a fair market fee basis. Which of the following answers best describe your self assessment of job readiness.

13%

39%

37%

11%

ready and possess the essential skills and know-how to carry out detailed design work

not possess all the essential skills but have identified a development strategy to acquire the essential capability

not ready, do not know from where you will develop the essential know-how

not ready and not interested


[10.01] - Countriessurvey participants from UK are less likely to feel positive about carrying out space related design work compared to those from the US, Europe and the rest of the world.



9%

47%

31%

13%

12%

34%

40%

13%

ready

have plan to get ready

not ready but interested


17%

52%

31%

20%

40%

40%


[10.02] - Ageyounger survey participants express a lower level of readiness on average when compared to those from the older age groups.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


12%

36%41%

11%

ready




15%

49%

29%

7%


[10.03] - Professionswhile the percentage of "readied" survey participants are similar among different professional groups, a slightly higher percentage of architecture professionals claim to not be interested in space related design work at all.

Age: 18-35 Age: 35-65+


12%

39%35%

13%

ready




15%

43%

39%

4%

IAC-10.E5.2.1161st International Astronautical Congress, Prague, CZ.Question 11Please rate the following benefits space architecture might bring to main stream architecture & design profession, based on your opinion to their likelihoods to be realised:

Science and technology spin-offs - space industry will introduce new ways of creating intelligent and environmentally friendly design into the mainstream architecture and design profession.

Intellectual advances - Research in space architecture will challenge established mindsets and expand the vocabularies of existing dialogues of architectural theories and creative thinking.

Inspire new generations - Space architecture can create grand visions and inspirations for the younger generations; demonstrating how unique and far reaching architecture and design can be.

New opportunities - Multi-disciplinary engagement with the space tourism industry will open up many new design opportunities that were previously unknown to architects and design professionals.


Overall Results

Question 11Please rate the following benefits space architecture might bring to main stream architecture & design profession, based on your opinion to their likelihoods to be realised:

technology spin-offs

intellectual advance

inspire new generations

new opportunties

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

strongly disagree disagree agree strongly agree

[11.00] - Overallmajority of the survey participants feel positive that space architecture can bring the benefits listed above to main stream architecture and design professions.

opinions towards all four benefits are fairly even - no majority trend can be established.


Summary - overall

• Survey results indicate an overall receptive opinion towards space and a positive interest in the emerging space tourism industry.

• A general consensus that the development of space architecture could bring many benefits to the mainstream architecture and design professions.

• Uncertainty over how to get involved and how to take advantage of the potential new opportunities offered by the space tourism.


Summary – young age groups (aged 18-35)

• Tend to be less enthusiastic about space and more sceptical of the benefits space tourism might bring.

• Have higher expectation of the national space agencies.


Summary – architecture professionals

• Tend to be less enthusiastic about space, and have a slightly higher level of negative opinions towards space tourism.

• Have higher expectation of the national space agencies

• Tend to be more conservative and adopt a realistic approach towards speculative space related works.


Summary – professional architecture institutes

• Among the least expected to champion the cause for the architecture and design professions to engage with the emerging space tourism industry.

• Architecture professionals also do not seem to have any higher expectation on the professional institutes when compared to those from non architecture background.


Summary – genders

• Both genders share similar opinions on the more generic questions about space and getting involved with space tourism.

• Female survey participants tend to be more sceptical on specific questions such as timescale, its interest in particular professional services, or the benefits space tourism might bring etc.


Summary – countries of origins

• Survey participants from United Kingdom have on average, expressed a significantly lower level of interest in space, more sceptical towards the emerging space tourism industry and are lessl ikely to feel positive about carrying out space related design work.

• a slightly higher expectation towards the professional architecture institutes (ranked 3rd in UK) than any other countries (ranked 5th for US, 6th for Europe and rest of the world)


Conclusion

In summary, the survey has achieved its primary goal of giving an illustrative account of the status quo between the space sector and the mainstream architecture & design professions.

The survey results have galvanised the idea that more interactions between the traditional design disciplines and the space sector could be mutually beneficial.

The findings from the survey analysis could provide new ground of debates on how to make the most out of the cross-disciplinary exchanges between the space sector and the traditional architecture & design professions.


Conclusion

While the survey analysis have revealed many key trends of opinions in the earlier section of this paper, the survey was designed to be indicative only and was intended to be a mean to encourage new dialogues for discussions, rather than providing any specific direction or recommendation on the subject - the latter would require a significantly bigger survey sample and a more comprehensive set of survey questions & analysis to identify specific field of interests where cross-disciplinary interactions could bring mutual benefits to the respective professions.

future or fantasy - space tourism from the perspective of architecture and design professions

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