Future of Marine Animal PopulationsFuture of Marine Animal Populations

Principal Investigators:Boris Worm, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NSHeike Lotze, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS

Ian Jonsen, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Bedford, NS

Management, Education and Outreach:Catherine Muir, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS

Synthesis Plan: Three StreamsSynthesis Plan: Three Streams

(1) DIVERSITY: Global biodiversity patterns (1) DIVERSITY: Global biodiversity patterns (Lead: Boris Worm)(Lead: Boris Worm)

(2) DISTRIBUTION: Animal movements (2) DISTRIBUTION: Animal movements (Lead: Ian Jonsen)(Lead: Ian Jonsen)

(3) ABUNDANCE: Long-term trends(3) ABUNDANCE: Long-term trends(Lead: Heike Lotze) (Lead: Heike Lotze)

Diversity: ApproachDiversity: Approach

Diversity: ResultsDiversity: Results

Source: Worm & Lotze (2009) Source: Worm & Lotze (2009) In: Letcher T (ed) Climate and global change: observed impacts on Planet Earth. Elsevier, in pressIn: Letcher T (ed) Climate and global change: observed impacts on Planet Earth. Elsevier, in press

MammalsMammals

Large fishLarge fish

ZooplanktonZooplankton

Diversity: PredictionsDiversity: Predictions

Source: Whitehead et al. (2008) Source: Whitehead et al. (2008) Ecol. Lett. 11:1198–1207Ecol. Lett. 11:1198–1207

Distribution: ApproachDistribution: Approach

Distribution: ResultsDistribution: Results

Source: Jonsen & James, in preparationSource: Jonsen & James, in preparation

Abundance: ApproachAbundance: Approach

Abundance: ResultsAbundance: Results

Source: Lotze & Worm B (2009) Source: Lotze & Worm B (2009) Trends Ecol. Evol., in pressTrends Ecol. Evol., in press

50 60 70 80 90 100

Diadromous fish

Groundfish

Reef fish

Sharks

Large pelagics

Deep sea fish

Pinnipeds, Otters, Sirenia

Whales

Sea turtles

Coastal birds

No. of records

24

57

14

41

32

9

19

42

7

10

Percent decline from historical baseline

Visualization & CommunicationVisualization & Communication

Source: Time magazine, Nov. 2006

Societal Impacts: Policy BriefingsSocietal Impacts: Policy Briefings

Sources: Worm & VanderZwaag (2007) Behind the headlines Vol. 64

Lotze et al. (2008) UNESCO-SCOPE-UNEP Policy Brief

Societal Impacts: Media and Public PolicySocietal Impacts: Media and Public Policy

Source: The New York Times, Nov. 2008

Limits to KnowledgeLimits to Knowledge

1.1. Data availability, Data availability, especially for poorly especially for poorly known species groupsknown species groups

2.2. Future predictions Future predictions fraught with uncertaintyfraught with uncertainty

3.3. Human behaviorHuman behavior

How new technologies might How new technologies might help:help:

1.1. Ongoing database efforts Ongoing database efforts (OBIS, NCEAS)(OBIS, NCEAS)

2.2. Ocean tracking network Ocean tracking network (OTN)(OTN)

3.3. Wild, inspired guessing Wild, inspired guessing (WIG)(WIG)

The Ocean’s Future: half full or half empty?The Ocean’s Future: half full or half empty?