future of education late 2016

Education Education and and

technologtechnology: stories y: stories

of the of the futurefuture3er. Congreso

Internacional de Innovación Educativa

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dweekly/64221580

Greetings from Greetings from AmericaAmerica

Choices are before usChoices are before us

The US context is… chaotic, maybe dire

How can we grapple with the future?

•Trends•Futures•Choices

Monthly environmental scan report

Trends identified, tested, projected

TrendlinesTrendlines

Technology trendsTechnology trends

Rise of the stacksYet hardware + networks = multiple ecosystems

The post-Snowden world

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Snowden

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Kelly_(editor)

ScreeningFlowing AccessingSharing

Cognifying

FilteringRemixingInteracting

Automation on the rise

Automation on the rise

http://www.cnet.com/news/and-heres-a-drone-with-a-chainsaw-attached/

Design for mobile *first *

New device ecosystemNew device ecosystem

VR + AR = MR

New device ecosystemNew device ecosystemAndroid battles iOSDisintegrated computing:WearablesVery small cameras and computers…

New device ecosystemNew device ecosystem

Android battles iOSDisintegrated computing:

WearablesVery small cameras and computers

Leading to…Leading to…

https://www.reddit.com/r/IllBeYourGuide/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/collegeofsanmateolibrary/15373589050/

Globalization of higher Globalization of higher educationeducation

International higher ed systems building up

More international students heading to other nations

US campuses expanding overseas presence

Education trendsEducation trendsReform movements Alternative certification pilots

Alternative business models and schools

DemographicsDemographics

Youth population shrinkage

Expanding senior population…

MEXICOMEXICO

Macroeconomic changesMacroeconomic changes

Labor transformations•manufacturing->service•1 job/career->many

gigs•declining participation•automation

Student Student population population changeschanges

Near-majority adult

Increasing first-generation students

Veterans Learning

disabilities 12https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/6708914025/

Adjunctification rising

Defunding public Defunding public universitiesuniversities

A new finance modelA new finance model

Teaching and learning and Teaching and learning and techtech

blended/flipped /hybridclassroom

Teaching and learning and Teaching and learning and techtech

distance learning grows

generational gaps gaming in education

Changes in the LMS world?

http://i0.wp.com/mfeldstein.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/walledgarden5.jpg

Uses of social media

Uses of Web video

OERThe rise of the Maker movement

MOOCs on the moveMOOCs on the move

Credit for MOOCs? STEM vs humanities Sustainability? New forms Multinational

Technology-mediated research

Simulations

http://web.archive.org/web/20150418162758/http://www.futurict.eu/

Computational *•Computational genomics•Computational life sciences •Bioinformatics•Computational molecular science•New media practice and studies•Predictive policing•High frequency trading (finance)

Textual researchLaw: e-discovery

http://criminalintent.org/

Textual researchDigital humanities

The new community of scholars*

*Credit to Dan Cohen for this formulation

What happens to the library?

•Shift from collection development

to digital literacy consultation•Open scholarship•Transforms to research

entrepreneurship

National Science Library at the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Which of these trends are the most powerful?

Which of these trends are the

most unpredicatble?

All of these are in the present.

So what’s next?So what’s next?

Extrapolations: Transnational

campuses Average

student age: 40

Hourly faculty

Privatizing public universities

Hogwarts vs poor campuses

What comes next?What comes next?

• Rich multimedia environment

• Some gamification

• Student as producer

Disintegrated computing as a service

Extensive data analysis, surveillance, creativity

Campus of networked things

A higher education bubble?A higher education bubble?

A higher education bubble?A higher education bubble?

Continued cost/quality anxiety

Student and parent anxieties about debt

Grad school crises Political pressure

The Queen sacrifice gambit

Yet the college premium Yet the college premium persistspersists

Will universities fight Trump?Will universities fight Trump?

Campuses defending immigrants

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/12/02/outlining-commitments-undocumented-immigrant-students-some-presidents-avoid-term

What do campuses do during civil unrest?

We’re so not sustainablePolitical dysfunction

“ unrest

Failure of the elites

Resentment “ “ “

https://www.flickr.com/photos/suxsie_q/27261718274/

We’re not sustainableWhat happens when these combine?

• Environmental stresses trigger political unrest

• Political unrest meets tottering leadership

• Distrust and friction escalate

• Repeat, reiterate: vicious cycle

Taking automation seriouslyTaking automation seriously

Curriculum and life: is school for unemployment or working with AIs?

Post-AI educationPost-AI education

Curriculum and life: what does it mean to be human when machines exceed us?


Pedagogy:• Apps instead of

classes• Computer-assisted

creativity• Cyborg teaching and

becoming


What if we take digital literacy What if we take digital literacy seriously?seriously?

It might be insurgent

https://www.flickr.com/photos/77688862@N02/20014884218/

The best digital literacy

storytelling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6yVCgoBn-I

Choices:• Reinvest in public academics or

privatize further?



privatize further?• Turn away the world or embrace

increasing globalism



privatize further?• Turn away the world or embrace

increasing globalism• Become open or erect walled

gardens


Choices:• Embrace social media or retreat

to silos?



to silos• Rebuild authorities or

encourage democratic digital literacy?



to silos?• Rebuild authorities or encourage

democratic digital literacy?• Prepare for automation now or be

caught by surprise?


Collaborate with each other, across institutions, sectors, nations, populations, professions

What can we do now?What can we do now?

Use social media

Use social media

Use and be open

Rethink everything in terms of automation’s possibilities

Imagine different worlds and inhabiting them - yourselves, your institution, your children and the generation to come

http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org

http://ftte.ushttp://ftte.ushttp://twitter.com/http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderbryanalexander