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Benny Daniel; VP-Consulting; Mobility-EI
Frost & Sullivan
Future of Autonomous Vehicles 12 Key Business Streams to generate >$200Bn by 2030
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Technology SAE L0 SAE L1 SAE L2 SAE L3 SAE L4 SAE L5
Adaptive Cruise Control ● ● ● ● ●
Parking Helper L1 ●
Active Lane Centering ● ● ● ● ●
Parking Helper L2 ● ● ● ●
Highway Pilot L2 ● ● ● ●
Traffic Jam Pilot ● ● ●
AD System L3 ●
AD System L4 - Highway ●
AD System L4 - City ●
Parking Valet ● ●
AD System L5 ●
ADAS Market: Product Segmentation, Europe and North America, 2018
LEVELS OF AUTOMATION
L0
NO DRIVING AUTOMATION
Driver drives the vehicle, vehicle can provide
assist features.
L1
DRIVING AUTOMATION ASSISTANCE
Either steering or braking assist, but not
simultaneously.
L2
PARTIAL DRIVING AUTOMATION
Steering and braking assist together as support
feature only, human driver to supervise.
L3
CONDITIONAL DRIVING AUTOMATION
Automation of full driving task with human
fallback; driver to respond promptly when
alerted.
L4
CONDITIONAL DRIVING AUTOMATION
Full automation in pre-determined conditions;
human to drive when system not engaged.
L5
FULL DRIVING AUTOMATION
Vehicle drives itself always unless the human
intends to drive.
SAE Definition for Various Levels of Automation Features within each level of automation will drive adoption within use cases in ownership and usership
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Autonomous Driving SAE Levels: Priority By Use Case, 2025-2030
Note: Technologies mentioned here are not an exhaustive list of L3, L4 and L5 functions.
Automated
Driving System
L3
Automated
Driving System
L4 (highway)
Automated
Driving System
L4 (City)
Parking
Valet
Automated
Driving
System L5
Technology
SAE L3
SAE L4
SAE L5
Ownership
Usership
Robo Taxis
Shuttles
Car Sharing
Ride Sharing
SAE Definition for Various Levels of Automation Development and deployment of AD features for
Low Medium High Impact:
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18 Million Highly Automated Vehicles (L3/4/5) Globally by 2030 L3 to peak at 35% of total autonomous car market by 2026; L4 to enter ownership.
- - - 82 477
1,171
2,242
3,827
5,622
7,487
9,305
11,291
13,316
15,404
18,031
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
L3 L4 L5
Global Autonomous Driving, Market Volumes, 2016-2030
Un
its in
Th
ou
san
ds
(‘000s)
Years
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
L3
L4
6
Years
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Global Autonomous Driving, Market Revenue, 2016-2030
AD Services to Account for 65% of Revenues by 2030 60% of ADS to be led by Shuttle Services, with China contributing an overall 50% to ADS revenues.
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.02 $8.33
$14.10 $17.67
$23.31
$31.54
$39.73
$48.48
$69.85
$95.79
$127.62
$173.12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
AD Product Revenue AD Service Revenue
$ in
Billio
n
65%
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1. User Based
Insurance
2. Vehicle Data
Services
3. Maintenance and
Predictive Model
Peripheral Services
1. In-vehicle feature
updates
2. Valet Parking /
Parking
3. BOOM
Hotspots: 12 Revenue Opportunities for Key Stakeholders Represents 65% of Overall Autonomous Market in 2030; 12 streams to cover $200 Bn in revenue.
Mobility
Autonomous
Service Revenue
12 UNIQUE Revenue propositions
1. Pods
2. Taxi
3. Shuttles
1. Kerb Side Delivery
2. Refuse / Recover /
City Logistics
3. Hub 2 Hub
[Highway Logistics)
Logistics & Services 3 4 Vehicle Services 2
1. Pods
2. Taxi
3. Shuttles
Mobility 1 1
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
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Expected YoY Global Penetration Rate Of Autonomous Shuttles by Number of Rides, Global, 2018–2030
Shared Mobility: Shuttles (By Rides) $74.42 Billion By 2030! Based on a weighted average of the fare ($3.6 per autonomous trip) globally.
2018 2026 2030
0 1.59 Total Estimated Number of Trips (in Billion)
Global Average Fare per ride for a certain
length (in US$) NA 3.13 3.16 3.32 3.41 3.5 3.9
Autonomous Rides Penetration 0 5.7% 11.4% 19% 22.9% 26.8% 30.7%
Value ($ Billion) 0 1.25 5.04 16.38 27.63 45.61 74.5
13.02
2023 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030
0.41 4.92 8.09 20.7
Today fare per Ride is estimated at $3.9: Constitutes of: 15% Operator Profit = $0.6 30%
Labor Cost =$1.2 35% Operation Cost (Insurance, parking) = $1.4 20% Maintenance Cost (Service, Fuel) = $0.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ROW
China
ASEAN
Africa
SAM
Europe
NAR86% Y
oY
Gro
wth
Ra
te:
To
tal
Ma
rke
t S
ize
(B
illio
n R
ide
s)
75%
69%
65%
87% 193% 115%
63%
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
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Expected YoY Global Adoption Rate Of Autonomous Taxis by Number of Rides, Global, 2018–2030
Shared Mobility: Automated Taxi (By Rides): $38.61B by 2030! China and North America being the major markets.
2018 2026 2030
0 0.85 Total Estimated Number of Trips (in Billion)
Global Average Fare per ride (in US$) NA 0 4.3 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4
Autonomous Trips Penetration 0 0 0.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.9% 3.7%
Value ($ Billion) 0 0 3.64 12.52 20.53 29.24 38.61
4.64
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ROW
China
ASEAN
Africa
SAM
Europe
NAR
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0
243.7% To
tal M
ark
et
Siz
e
(In
Billio
n R
ide
s)
63.9%
42.4%
32.1%
2.02 3.28 6.08
Markets include developed regions like Australia, Japan and Singapore where autonomous taxis are likely to grow faster.
The average cost per trip by 2030 is expected to be around $3.64 estimating 30-40% of the total to be driver costs.
Years
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
??
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SHORT TERM MEDIUM TERM LONG TERM
Ow
ne
rsh
ip
Sh
are
d
Autonomous
Parking/
Chauffeur
L3 Robo
Taxi
Highway
auto pilot
(L3)
Fleet
V2X
Intra Fleet
Platooning
Scheduled
/in fleet
platooning
Traffic jam
Assist
L5 Geo
Fenced
Shuttles
Geo fenced
– Airports,
Construction
sites
Hub-hub
Transfer
Intra State
Long Haul
Inter State
Long Haul
Hub-Dock
Transfer
(Regional)
Dock-dock
Transfer
(Regional)
Go
od
s
L5 Ride
Hailing L4 Shuttles
L4 Vehicle
L4 Robo
Taxis
CONVENIENCE
SA
FE
TY
?
COST
Use Cases Driving Autonomous Adoption Convenience driver in ownership and usership. Cost primary driver in logistics.
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Electronic Platform
Vehicle Platform (Electric)
Ease of Use , User Delight 1
3D Approach for the OS 2
HMI and Infotainment Features 3
3D Car as the Menu 4
IoT Integration 5
Future Of Vehicle Platforms & Architectures CASE Convergence will lead to 3 Platforms as Building Blocks for AD Development
Digital Platform
Diagnostics and Vehicle Health Monitoring
Electrical Power Systems
Backup Autonomous Driving System
Redundant Braking and Steering Systems
1
2
3
4
Redundancy ECUs 1
Domain Controllers &
Interfacing Units 2
Cyber Security Modules 3
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Ecosystem: Providing “Cost” and “Convenience” in Autonomous OEMs planning foray into ecosystem via partnership / acquisition or in-house model.
(1)
Hardware
(2)
Software
(3)
Cloud
(4)
Fleet Management Services
Car In car In-car Outside AI Service MAP Others S/W; P/F Fleet
ICE
EV
LID
AR
RA
DA
R
CA
ME
RA
OS
M/W
AP
I
V2V
V2X
AU
TO
NO
MO
US
CO
NN
EC
TIV
ITY
HD
Fle
et
Deplo
ym
ent
Invento
ry M
gm
t
Custo
mer
Engagem
ent
Paym
ent
Cars
Other
Vital
Partners
Consortium
Mode
Acquisition Mode
Conquest Mode
Hybrid Mode
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Future Ownership & Usership Structures Users to access multiple structures based on their day to day needs and travel scenarios.
OWNERSHIP USERSHIP
Full
Ownership
Leased
Ownership
Exclusive
Licence
Shared
Licence
Fleet
Service
Private Owned
Service
STATUS DRIVEN ACCESS DRIVEN COST DRIVEN
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Key Takeaways & Discussion Points
1 in 6 cars sold (18Mn) globally to be automated (L3, L4 and L5) by 2030 -China leading; Shuttle Programs and Automated Taxis to have biggest share of revenue pie
12 Key Autonomous Driving Based Services to Account for $200Bn by 2030 -Shuttles and Robotaxis contribute 54%.
OEMs Will Consider Options to Capitalize on future AD Service market -Options include: Consortiums, Partnerships, Acquisitions or Hybrid
Tier 1 Supplier Role will Evolve (Integrator; H/W agnostic S/W) -Tech partnership, acquisition or consortiums vital to develop new mobility ecosystems!
Autonomous to Disrupt Existing New Mobility Business Models -Likely convergence of e-hailing and car sharing operations to Ride Sharing by 2025/30!
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Benny Daniel
Vice President – Consulting
Mobility-EI
Direct: +44 2089 968 528
Mobile: +44 7597 694 310
Get In Touch!