(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

Future Directions Future Directions inin

Globally Coordinated Globally Coordinated Climate Change ResearchClimate Change Research

Primary Sources:

IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

New ScenariosNew Scenarios

• “• “long-term” scenarios long-term” scenarios 2100 and ultimately 2100 and ultimately 2300 2300- climate targets for avoiding risks- climate targets for avoiding risks- long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation- long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation

Global scenarios for two time periodsGlobal scenarios for two time periods

• “• “near-term” scenarios near-term” scenarios 2035 2035- potential for “prediction”- potential for “prediction”- directly linked to policy planning- directly linked to policy planning

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

Approaches to Scenario DevelopmentApproaches to Scenario Development

Previous (e.g., SRES) Planned (e.g., RCP)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

Expected Representative Concentration PathwaysExpected Representative Concentration Pathways

RCP8.5RCP8.5

• > 8.5 W/m> 8.5 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100

• risingrising

RCP6RCP6

• ~ 6 W/m~ 6 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100

• stabilizationstabilization

RCP4.5RCP4.5

• 4.5 W/m4.5 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100

• stabilizationstabilization

RCP3-PDRCP3-PD

• peak 3 W/mpeak 3 W/m22 before 2100 before 2100

• decline after peakdecline after peak

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models)CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

(K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)

ENDEND

Future Directions Future Directions inin

Globally Coordinated Globally Coordinated Climate Change ResearchClimate Change Research