Future directions for

aridlands research –

an African perspective

Dr. Norbert Juergens Director, Hamburg Herbarium and GNDRI coordinator,

Dryland Research Centre Hamburg, Germany

International

Research and

Development

Division Friday, 22 April 2016, at the ICC room 108

Future directions for aridlands research

1 Context: work in the Okavango Delta and elsewhere

2 Weaknesses of the UNCCD conceptual framework

3 Presently defined focal areas (Cancun 2015)

4 Self-determination by the scientific community (DNI, WOCAT, GNDRI, ICON-SLM)

BIOTA West

BIOTA East

BIOTA South

Cuvette Central

BIOTA Maroc

BIOTA AFRICA

Mega-Transects

1. Work in Africa

The BIOTA AFRICA network and its goals

Towards an integrated biodiversity observation system

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

AFRICA

Natural resource use

Understanding drivers of change

Predictions of changes

Developing capacity

Managing biodiversity

BIOTA East

BIOTA South

BIOTA West Assessing Biodiversity

Plants & Animals

Biotic and abiotic interaction

Scaling up

Monitoring in space and time

The regional project clusters of the 76 cooperation partners as well as global monitoring initiatives collaborating with BIOTA AFRICA

INVESTIGATING BIODIVERSITY KNOWLEDGE FOR

SUSTAINING BIODIVERSITY BIOTA Maroc

CBTHA

Congo project

The Future Okavango

Spatial analyses:

Multi-scale remote sensing & GIS-based landscape analyses

Stakeholder involvement, implementation, policy implications SP10

Ca

pa

city d

eve

lop

me

nt

Coordination & Data integration

SPC

Ecological and economic

valuation of ESS

SP8 Analysis & design of social

and economic mechanisms

User knowledge, valuation and

regulation

SP6

Regional and transboundary

Governance

SP7

Assessment of ESF/ESS related to...

Soils & crops

SP3

Plants

SP5

Micro-

organisms

SP4

Water

SP2

Climate

SP1

SP 9

1 2

3

9

5

6

7

8

4 7

The Future Okavango

„Regional Science Service

Ce ters

SASSCAL WeatherNet 2015

SASSCAL WeatherNet 2015

10. November 2015:

25273 plots

vegetation & forests

SASSCAL VegMap 2015

Biodiversity Observatories 2015

SASSCAL ObervationNet 2015

Angola Zambia

Namibia Botswana

Südafrika

Arid

Zone

Angola

Okavango Delta

Namibia

Zambia

Okavango catchment

Okavango: climate

Mean annual

precipitation

1981 - 2010

Okavango: climate change

Up to 250 mm less rain in Angola

Up to 150 mm less rain in Okavango-Delta

Change annual rainfall: 2016-2045/1971-2000

T. Weber, A. Kriegsmann &

D. Jacob

Climate Service Center 2.0,

Hamburg Germany

Okavango: Modelled fluxes J2000g J2000g

J2000g J2000

J2000g

J2000g

J2000g

J2000g

Almost all the water is generated

in Central Angola

Source: Steudel, Göhmann, Baumberg,

Helmschrot, Kralisch, Flügel (Univ. of

Jena), Mosimanyana, Massamba (ORI,

Univ. of Botswana), Mwewa, Vushe

(Polytechnic of Namibia), Quintino

(INRH, Angola)

Okavango: Annual fluctuations

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

01.04.1962 01.04.1963 01.04.1964 01.04.1965 01.04.1966 01.04.1967 01.04.1968 01.04.1969 01.04.1970 01.04.1971 01.04.1972 01.04.1973 01.04.1974 01.04.1975

Dis

cha

rge

in

cb

m/s

Rundu (Cubango)

Dirico (Cuito)

Mukwe

Cubango at Rundu

Cuito at Dirico

Okavango at Mukwe

Source: Steudel, Göhmann,

Baumberg, Helmschrot,

Kralisch, Flügel (Univ. of Jena),

Mosimanyana, Massamba

(ORI, Univ. of Botswana),

Mwewa, Vushe (Polytechnic

of Namibia), Quintino (INRH,

Angola)

Okavango: planned extractions

Bewässer

ung

(ha)

Extraktion

(m3 s-1)

Geplant

(ha)

Geplant:

Extraction

(m3 s-1)

Angola 1,500 2 270,000 131

Namibia 2,200 2.4 15,700 12.2

Botswana 31 < 0,1 188 0,25

Cubango

(m3 s-1)

Cuito

(m3 s-1)

Mean low water (October) 40 105

Anual mean 188 162

Mean high water 246 173

Highest water 960 350

Source: Steudel,

Göhmann, Baumberg,

Helmschrot, Kralisch,

Flügel (Univ. of Jena),

Mosimanyana,

Massamba (ORI, Univ.

of Botswana), Mwewa,

Vushe (Polytechnic of

Namibia), Quintino

(INRH, Angola)

Angola

Okavango Delta

Windhoek

Gaborone

China

Angola

Okavango Delta

KAZA

Ramsar UNESCO

World heritage

?

Deforestation

Agriculture Charcoal

Deforested area until 2030 based on current deforestation rates: ca 3,842,000 ha.

[ca. 42% of the Miombo forests within the FORA catchment]

Deforestation until 2030

[if current change rates do

not change

Source: Stellmes, M.,

University of Trier, unpubl.

Fire is degrading ecosystems and their economic values

Database:

MODI“ „a tive fire a d „ ur ed area produ t (2001 – 2012)

Descriptors derived:

- fire frequency

- fire season

- fire intensity

Source: Stellmes et al. (2013) Fire frequency, fire seasonality and fire intensity

within the Okavango Catchment derived from MODIS fire products.

Biodiversity & Ecology 5, 351-362.

Years with fire witin 2001-2012

Blitzrate

Stellmes et al. (2013) Fire frequency, fire seasonality and fire intensity

within the Okavango Catchment derived from MODIS fire products.

Biodiversity & Ecology 5, 351-362.

Jahreszeit der Brände

The so alled fire trap a fire return period < 5 years) impedes

the regeneration of young trees.

Stellmes et al. (2013) Fire frequency, fire seasonality and fire intensity

within the Okavango Catchment derived from MODIS fire products.

Biodiversity & Ecology 5, 351-362.

Maximaler Abstand zwischen Bränden 2000-2014

Feuer: Entzündungsorte

Management matters!

southern border of Zambezi

veterinary fences

border of Kavango West /

Ohangwena & Oshikoto

Source: Frantz, Stellmes, Röder & Hill, University of Trier, unpublished

2 Weaknesses of the UNCCD conceptual framework (a,b) Broad definitions • a UNCCD: Desertifi atio : „Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and

dry sub-humid areas, resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities

• La d degradatio : „the reduction or loss of biological or economic productivity = redu ed e osyste servi es

Arid lands: Relevant environmental parameters, ressources & processes:

•Water !!!

• Energy/Heat

•Geomorphology/topography (water, erosion)

• Soil structure & texture (water, erosion)

• Soil fertility

•Well-adapted organisms

•Adapted land use (rangeland animal production, qualitative, quantitative)

Sub-humid lands: Relevant environmental

parameters, ressources & processes, if we use the

wide UNCCD definition (semi-arid & sub-

humid),including 1/3 of all land, including e.g. all

savannahs

• Deforestation

• Rain fed agriculture

• Land & water grabbing

• Fire !!!

(c) Multiple possible goals – not always compatible

• Conservation of desert ecosystems?

• Maximize use of drylands?

• Sustainable use of drylands?

• Avoid degradation?

• Restoration of degraded systems?

(d) Complex societal context

• Integration of the socio-economic dimension and the ecological dimension into a social-ecological system

• Livelihood enhancement / poverty reduction

• Stronger political dimension

(e) Multiple stakeholders

• Trans-disciplinary approach needed: integrate stakeholder viewpoints into all research, from the very beginning of concept development.

• Large additional task

(f) Harmonization of UNCCD, UNFCCC & UNCBD

Integration and harmonization with Climate Change, with Biological Diversity agreements

3 Presently defined focal areas for science, as by: UNCCD 3rd Scientific Conference 9-12 March 2015

A Diagnosis of constraints

B Responses

C Monitoring & Assessment

http://www.unccd.int/Lists/OfficialDocuments/cop12/cst2eng.pdf

A Diagnosis of constraints

Aa. Interaction between (a) adaptation measures to climate change and (b) desertification, land degradation, and drought.

Ab. Role of extreme weather events (droughts, heat stress, increased soil temperatures, evaporation rates) in degradation processes.

Ac. Cascading effects of climate change and land degradation on the nexus of food security, health, livelihood losses, and poverty.

Ad. Food – water – energy nexus

B Responses

Ba. Combine (a) adaptation to climate change, (b) reduction of land degradation and (c) enhance & protect biodiversity.

Bb. Use a transdisciplinary approach

Bc. Make use of traditional and local knowledge

Bd. Traditional knowledge transfer can inform climate change adaptation.

B. Responses (continued) Be. Knowledge exchange needs to be enhanced at all levels.

Bf. Local strategies need to be actively incorporated.

Bg. Economic incentives and disincentives need to be developed with all stakeholders.

Bh. Land ownership and social and national adaptation goals need to be harmonized.

Bi. Lack of public awareness.

Bj. Financial support is needed to assist affected countries.

C Monitoring & Assessment

Ca. Biophysical indicators for land degradation can be estimated by RS.

Cb. RS data must be integrated with ground truth.

Cc. Change can be monitored using national observatories.

Cd. A common framework assessment of the three Rio Conventions would provide insights into the benefits of of SLM.

Ce. LDN concept needs scientific support

4 Self-determination by the scientific community (DNI, WOCAT, GNDRI, ICON-SLM • A huge opportunity for good science

• A lot of discussion still missing

• U.S. community should become more strongly involved (e.g. foundation of GNDRI in San Francisco)

Summary

• UNCCD is based on a number of the politically, economically and socially weakest countries on earth

• The present approach to UNCCD goals is complex or even weak, due to very wide definitions, a lack of clarity in several areas and the dimension of challenges involved

• The global scientific networks have improved since the definition of UNCCD concepts (MEA, ESS concept, GEOSS, IPCC, IPBES)

• Based on these building blocks, a new approach could be developed by the ICON-SLM network

Components of ICON-SLM

ICON-SLM: International Consortium of Science and Knowledge Networks on Sustainable Land Management

DNI (DesertNet International) (www.desertnet-international.org)

WOCAT (World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies, www.wocat.net)

GNDRI (Global Network of Dryland Research Institutes, www.gndi.org)