Future ChallengesSpecifications Working Group

Riaan Henn

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Agenda

• SWG Introduction

• ARA Roadmap and Status

• Fuel Change Drivers in Africa

• Specification changes - review

• Future ARA SWG Challenges and Action Plans

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Specifications Working Group

• On future fuel specifications, vehicle emissions strategy and related matters

• Development of fuels specifications strategy AFRI 1 – AFRI 5, biofuels strategy, creating awareness of the ARA fuel specifications

• Pan African and Global stakeholders to adopt cleaner fuel standards in accordance with the ARA Specifications Strategy

• Various meetings on fuel specifications, which are held across the continent and globally when necessary

• Road map for future African specifications; currently concentrating on promoting regional fuel specifications

• On the introduction of best practices relating to fuel quality, such as introduction of Biofuels into the fuel supply chain

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SWG Objective

To encourage, in conjunction with the Refining Techniques WG, individual ARA members to develop investment plans to meet AFRI 4 Specifications by 2020, and AFRI-5 by 2030

Promote fuels and vehicle ‘one system’ approach

Promoting Regional Harmonisation of fuel standards

Engage with key stakeholders to raise awareness of ARA fuel specifications

Review of Africa Vehicle Parc modelling to promote best timing of clean fuels introduction

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SWG Strategy

The strategies

of the SWG

Be in the best interests of each

Region within Africa

Consider fuel specification

changes in an integrated

system approach

Project long term solutions of

15 years

emission standards

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AFRI specifications road map

• Started in 2006 as a response to lead removal from gasoline

• Improve Public Health and reduce mortality rate related to emissions

• Developed into a road map for Africa to match fuel for vehicles’ engine technology and emission standards

With an objective to improve air quality

To aid refinery investment planning

To establish a road map towards global product quality

to match the evolving car fleet, African climatic

conditions and emission standards

To consider engines and fuel as one system for

improving standards for exhaust emissions

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AFRI Specifications road map - gasoline

Property AFRI-1 AFRI-2 AFRI-3 AFRI-4 AFRI-5

RON, min. (1) 91 91 91 91 91

MON, min. 81 81 81 81 81

Lead content, max. (2) Unleaded Unleaded Unleaded Unleaded 0.005

Sulphur content, % mass, max. 0.1 0.05 0.03 0.015 0.005

Benzene content, vol%, max. to be

reported

to be

reported 5 1 1

Aromatics, vol%, max. n/a n/a n/a n/a 42

Density at 15°C, kg/m³ min-max n/a n/a n/a n/a 725-780

RVP, kPa, max. n/a n/a n/a n/a 65

Ethanol content, vol%, max.(4) 5 5 5 10 10

1. A higher grade of gasoline may be marketed if required.

2. “Unleaded” means <0.013g of lead per litre.

3. Imported gasoline to be free from oxygenates.

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4. In cases of dispute ASTM D3244 / EN ISO 4259 shall be used.

• ARA promotes an AFRI specifications road map with a MINIMUM target of AFRI-4 by 2020, and AFRI-5 by 2030:

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AFRI Specifications road map - diesel

Property AFRI-1 AFRI-2 AFRI-3 AFRI-4 AFRI-5

Sulphur content, % mass, max. 0.8 0.35 0.05 0.005 0.005

Density at 15°C, kg/m³, min/max. 800 / 890 800 / 890 800 / 890 820 / 880 820-880

Cetane Index (calculated), min. 42 45 45 45 46

Cetane Number, min. n/a n/a n/a n/a 49

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

(PAH), mass %, max.n/a n/a n/a n/a 11

Lubricity (HFRR @ 60 °C), micron, max.to be

reported

to be

reported 460 460 460

Oxydation stability (Hr) (1) 20 20 20 20 20

FAME content, vol%, max. 7 7 7 7 7

2. In cases of dispute ASTM D3244 / EN ISO 4259 shall be used.

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1. Applicable only to gas oil / diesel containing more than 2 % v/v FAME.

• ARA promotes an AFRI specifications road map with a MINIMUM target of AFRI-4 by 2020, and AFRI-5 by 2030:

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AFRI Specs – Test Methods are critical

Property

RON

MON

Lead content

Sulphur content (1)

Benzene content

Aromatics

Density (2)

RVP

Ethanol content

Property

Sulphur content (1)

Density (2)

Cetane Index

Cetane Number

Polycyclic Aromatic

Hydrocarbons

Lubricity

Oxydation stability

FAME content

1. In case of dispute test method ASTM D5453 shall be used.

2. In case of dispute test method ASTM D4052 shall be used.

EN 14078

EN 1601 / EN 13132 / ASTM D4815 / EN ISO 22854 / EN 14517 / EN 1601 / EN 13132

Methods

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ASTM D2622 /ASTM D5453 / IP336 / ASTM D4294 (1) EN ISO 20846 / EN ISO 20884 / EN ISO 13032

ASTM D4052/ D1298 /IP 160 / IP 365 / EN ISO 3675 / EN ISO 12185

ASTM D976 / ASTM D4737 / EN ISO 4264

ASTM D976 / ASTM D4737 / EN ISO 5165 / EN 15195 / EN 16144

IP391 / ASTM D2425 / EN 12916

ISO 12156-1 / CEC –F06-A-96

EN 15751

Methods

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ASTM D2699 / IP 237 / EN ISO 5164

ASTM D2700 / IP 236 / EN ISO 5163

ASTM D5059 / ASTM D3237 / ASTM D3348 / ASTM D3341 / IP 270 / IP 228 / IP 362 / IP 352 / EN 237

ASTM D2622 / ASTM D5453 / ASTM D4294 / IP336 / EN ISO 20846 / EN ISO 20847 / EN ISO 20884

ASTM D5580 / ASTM D5443 / ASTM D3606 / ASTM D6730 / ASTM D4815 / EN 12177 / EN 238

ASTM D1319 / ASTM D5580 / ASTM D5443 / EN ISO 22854

ASTM D1298 / ASTM D4052 / IP 160 / IP 365 / EN ISO 3675 / EN ISO 12185

No alcohol: ASTM D323 / IP 69 / ASTM D5191 / ASTM D4953 / EN 13036-1

With alcohol: ASTM D4953 / EN 13036-1

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AFRI road map

2020

2030

The ARA targets

MINIMUM AFRI-4 fuel

specifications by 2020

The ARA targets

MINIMUM AFRI-5 fuel

specifications by 2030

Vehicle maintenance and

mandatory inspection & control

are essential alongside fuel

quality improvements

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Roadmap Status

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Roadmap review - general

• Little regulatory and consumer interest in detailed specifications and their impact on fuel quality and environment linked to vehicles?

• Imported quality tends to be lower sulphur, but examples of exploitation of lack of detailed controls on individual specifications

• Many countries have not updated official specifications inline with importation / typical quality

• To meet 2020 deadline, refinery investments needs to be made now

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Gasoline AFRI - 2 (Official vs. Typical)

Gasoline AFRI - 3 (Official vs. Typical)

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Gasoil AFRI – 2 (Official vs. Typical)

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Gasoil AFRI – 3 (Official vs. Typical)

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AFRI-4 Status

• Gasoline

No countries presently meet AFRI-4 in Africa today

AFRI-4 Sulphur levels are met by Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Seychelles and the EAC (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi). These countries however fail to meet AFRI-4 fully because of higher benzene levels, while some do not have MON requirements (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire & Gabon)

• Gas Oil

No countries presently meet AFRI-4 in Africa today, except Seychelles

Morocco , Mauritius & the EAC states: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi meet all AFRI-4 requirements, but have no biodiesel related limitations (Oxidation Stability / FAME)

Only DRC (e.g. “undetectable”) and RSA have FAME specifications

Only 14 out of 53 African countries have a lubricity specification. Some (such e.g. Tunisia) include as part of import spec

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Fuel Change Drivers in Africa

• Engine technology

Influx of new technology – requirement for improved fuel quality and demand, but timing is unclear

Gasoil / Gasoline Technology shift

Preservation of catalyst

• Vehicle manufacturers (Pass Car & Heavy duty)

Requirement of cleaner fuels, new engines fitted with exhaust after treatment technologies

Fuel cleanliness / solid particle count (ISO 4406)

Certainty of fuel quality and timing

Lubricity

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Fuel Change Drivers in Africa

• Vehicle Exhaust Emissions

Increasing car populations in our cities result in urban pollution and health concerns

Need for limits and controls on exhaust emissions linked with fuel enabling technology

Clear time line for these limits required

• International

Marine Fuel Specifications

Aviation

• Environmental pressures

UNEP and PCFV working to link fuel quality, vehicle exhaust emissions, vehicle maintenance and control systems with improving air quality

Increase Global Africa Focus

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Specification changes - review

Area Item

Algeria Lead removal programme delayed due to refinery upgrade, maybe until 2017? – pending

Angola ULP 93 moved to 500ppm sulphur and 3% vol Benzene, and gasoil moved down to 1500ppm sulphur. New 95 RON gasoline spec

DRC Gasoline moved to 300ppm sulphur and 5% vol Benzene, while gasoil is now 500ppm sulphur and zero FAME requirement

East Africa Community

Implementation of AFRI 4 - East Africa Community implemented low sulphur standards 2015 - Gasoil @ 50 ppm sulphur; Gasoline @ 150 ppm sulphur. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi supplied via imports

Madagascar Moving to 500ppm sulphur on Gasoil - pending

Morocco Moved to 10 ppm sulphur Gasoil and Gasoline

South Africa Cleaner Fuels 2 by 20XX? 10 ppm sulphur - pending

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Specification changes - review

• International

Aviation

DEF STAN 91-91 Issue 7 Amd 3 (FAME Content)

Supply Chain Traceability and Material handling procedures part of specification

Marine Fuels

Marine Fuel Sulphur (fuel oil & distillates)

IMO Global Marine Fuel Sulphur reduction by 2020 / 2025 to 0.5 % max sulphur

Study being conducted by IMO to review 0.5 % max sulphur fuel availability for either 2020 or 2025 global cap implementation

Final report for study expected to be completed by October 2016 for decision by Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC)

Direct impact for refiners in Africa : +/-

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Specification changes - review

• Emission compliance & progress

Mandatory vehicle emissions testing in Rwanda from January 2015. Future importation to comply with the emissions standards, but no vehicle age limit

Very few countries in Africa have emissions compliance standards and effective inspection and maintenance. South Africa and Nigeria have Euro 2 emission requirements, but Inspection & Maintenance (I&M)?

• Vehicle Import limitations

Some countries impose vehicle age limits on import

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IMPORTATION OF USED VEHICLES

None permitted

Restricted by Age Higher DutyNo

RestrictionsN/A

Algeria Benin < 14 years Cape Verde > 4 years Angola Comoros

South Africa Chad < 4 years Gambia > 10 years Botswana Djibouti

Sudan Congo < 7 years Ghana > 5 years Burkina Faso South Sudan

DRC < 10 years Tanzania > 8 years Burundi Sao Tome & Principe

Côte d'Ivoire < 7 years Zimbabwe > 5 years Cameroon Togo

Egypt < 5 years CA

Eritrea < 10 years Eq. Guinea

Gabon < 4 years Ethiopia

Kenya < 9 years Guinea

Lesotho < 8 years Guinea-Bissau

Liberia> 20 years prohibited> 10 years restricted

Madagascar

Libya < 6 years Malawi

Mauritania < 8 years Mali

Mauritius < 4 years Niger

Morocco < 5 years Rwanda

Mozambique < 5 years Sierra Leone

Namibia < 9 years Uganda

Nigeria < 10 years Zambia

Senegal < 6 years

Seychelles < 5 years

Swaziland < 16 years

Tunisia < 4 years

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African Refining Challenges

The African refining system will face many challenges in the coming years:

FundingEvolution of

specifications / upgrading of

fuels

Evolution of environmental

standards

The safety of industrial sites and refineries

Reducing energy consumption of

refineries

Impact (competition) of large refineries in

Asia, future African refineries

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Future Challenges and Action Plans

• Challenge of timing to meet AFRI – 4 specifications by 2020

• Seek AU and regional support (eg ECOWAS) for AFRI specifications

• Look at opportunities of regional specifications based on common supply chains rather than individual countries

• Support members efforts to gain government support for refinery investment to produce cleaner fuels

• Seek further cooperation's with UNEP and PCFV

• Promote ARA WoodMac refinery study considering socio-economic impact of closure of local refineries

• Conduct Vehicle parc study model

Lack of availability of vehicle data, especially emission levels

Funding /Budget / Costs

• Develop fuel additive guidelines

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THANK YOU