FutureCBC Carbon

Reduction 2025

FUTURE TRENDS, RISK, CHANGE MANAGEMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

25th March 2009, North Wales Conference Centre Llandudno

1. CARBON REDUCTION IMPERATIVE

climate change is high on the political agenda

annual temperatures have continued to rise up to 3.5oC from 1990 levels.

drastic carbon reduction of 9% per annum will avoid dangerous climate change

2008 Climate Change Act = new statutory duty placed on Local Partnerships

statutory 9% annual carbon emission reduction duty.

2. ENERGY SECURITY

UK is importing 80% of its fuel (mainly gas) via a pipeline from Russia.

little microgeneration or large-scale wind or tidal power

nuclear power stations has been delayed through political pressure

Electricity supply in Wales is from a few ageing power stations supplied by dwindling Welsh coal reserves and imported gas.

Short term economic benefits from revitalised coal production

Gas supplies unreliable due to political tension between Russia and EU

3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRENDS

2008 recession still affecting competitiveness.

failure to secure investment in the FutureCBC infrastructure

failure of pension funds

heat-related health problems

acute fuel poverty in warmer summers

climate-induced migration =6,000 additional migrants over the next 5 years

local services stretched

4. POOR CARBON RECORD

fragmented household energy efficiency measures have not brought consumption down.

new housing built without microgeneration & high energy use has continued unabated.

affordable homes urgently needed

FutureCBC’s record on carbon reduction questioned by auditors

renewables opportunities in stadium and shopping centre ignored

5. NEW DEVELOPMENT AND CARBON REDUCTION

FutureCBC’s Local Partnership has a number of pending decisions in the light of this new statutory duty to reduce carbon emissions.

- replacing the Council’s ageing and energy-inefficient HQ, due for closure in 3 years - traffic congestion and fuel supply affecting essential journeys around city. - building 10,000 affordable homes adjacent to new NHS facility on land on the outskirts of the city  

annual audit of performance on the new duty

significant financial penalties to the partnership should they fail to respond.

two year lead-in period has just started for the partnership to plan its strategic and practical response.

national significance in interpreting the new duty

partnership need a strategic and decisive response to carbon reduction and energy security

6. CARBON ACCOUNTABILITY

7. QUESTIONS AND PREPAREDNESS?

1. List the big questions which come out of this scenario for the FutureCBC partnership? What are the top five priority issues you have identified?

Long term (5):

Short term (5): 

2. Assume that FutureCBC wouldn’t have been so unprepared  for this scenario.

What actions might have been implemented before 2025 to reduce exposure to the risks in this scenario?

8. INFORMATION, RISK, SUCCESS PARTNERSHIP?

Think about the following ‘change management ‘ issues for the partnership: 

getting a better understanding of impacts of the scenario (what sort of information might you need?)

which ‘business as usual activities’ are most vulnerable are they fit for purpose? implications for risk management and emergency planning? what does success look like on carbon reduction and how might you measure it? the role of the Partnership and the changing relationships to tackle carbon reduction

 

9. RESOURCES, ACTION, POLICY RESPONSIBILITY?

aligning organisational resources to deal with carbon reduction and building capacity in the partnership – how might you approach this? What practical things can you do immediately to ease the situation? What long term measures and policies might you develop to ensure carbon reduction?  How might this scenario change your organisation’s role within the Partnership?

10. MESSAGES FOR PLENARY

What are the 5 key pieces of learning for the group from this exercise?  

What immediate actions can be carried out by your organisation to increase preparedness for carbon reduction in the future?

Learning1.2.3.4.5.

Actions1.2.3.