fut mod corn

8/9/2019 Fut Mod Corn

1/20

he weekly forecasts for the marketing year.

he weekly forecasts for the marketing year.

forecast model.

del, data sources, and forecast procedures.

o produce the marketing year forecasts:by marketing year.ar.

ter*cyclical payment rates.

season"a#era$e %rice& %rice lossCCP( rate for corn

t in the file.01234 payment rate as provided for in the + -

*and*implications5crop*commodity*programs.aspxrketing year + -65- . $sers are encouraged torn: An Application of the Futures Pricen the model for corn, its data re7uirements, theand + 5 /. The models for soybeans and wheat

he 8xcel file for that commodity. The report only

s*feed*outlook5fds* /a* -.aspx

ived and implied counter*cyclical payment rate.ge forecast worksheet.

ived and implied counter*cyclical payment rate.ge forecast worksheet.

inserting their own numbers for futures prices,

orld Agricultural Supply and !emand "stimates

e, direct payment rate, counter*cyclical payment

0 A%&84 for season average farm price received.cument'&;--ero $pl es ar$ pr "es re"e e6 are ot a a lable. : e last pr "e l ste6 t s "olu$ represe ts t e $ 6-$o t pr "e< ot er pr "es re le"t t e ull $o t pr "e.

Chart of 4ee3l) futures !o el forecasts for the entire !ar3etin$ )ear 'fi$ure -(

t

Table $. +ee#ly nearby futures price by mar#eting year mont," mar#eting year $%1&'1(Cale 6ar Fore"ast 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1& 1-0a/-14 %.&& %.&& %.&& %.& %.& %.& %.14 %.14 %.1 %.1 4. 4.

-0a/-14 %.12 %.12 %.12 %.1 %.1 %.1 %.2% %.2% %.3& %.3& %.& %.&1%-0a/-14 4. 1 4. 1 4. 1 4. 4. 4. 4. 4 4. 4 %.&& %.&& 4. & 4. &22-0a/-14 4.*4 4.*4 4.*4 4. 3 4. 3 4. 3 4. 4. 4. % 4. % 4. 4 4. 42 -0a/-14 4.'3 4.'3 4.'3 4.*3 4.*3 4.*3 4.* 4.* 4. % 4. % 4.*% 4.*%

%- u -14 4.4* 4.4* 4.4* 4.%* 4.%* 4.%* 4.'4 4.'4 4.*& 4.*& 4.'4 4.'412- u -14 4.44 4.44 4.44 %.%% %.%% %.%% 4.'2 4.'2 4.' 4.' 4.'3 4.'31 - u -14 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.% 4.% 4.% 4.'% 4.'% 4.*1 4.*1 4.'* 4.'*

2'- u -14 4.43 4.43 4.43 4.%4 4.%4 4.%4 4.'1 4.'1 4.' 4.' 4.'3 4.'33- ul-14 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2* 4.2* 4.2* 4.34 4.34 4.41 4.41 4.42 4.421&- ul-14 3. 3 3. 3 3. 3 4.&4 4.&4 4.&4 4.12 4.12 4.1 4.1 4.22 4.221*- ul-14 3. * 3. * 3. * 3. 3. 3. 4.& 4.& 4.1% 4.1% 4.21 4.2124- ul-14 3.*& 3.*& 3.*& 3. 1 3. 1 3. 1 3. & 3. & 3. * 3. * 4.&4 4.&431- ul-14 3.'* 3.'* 3.'* 3. & 3. & 3. & 3. 3. 3. % 3. % 4.&3 4.&3*-Au -14 3.*1 3.*1 3.*1 3. 4 3. 4 3. 4 3. 3 3. 3 3. 3. 4.&% 4.&%

14-Au -14 3.*4 3.*4 3.*4 3. * 3. * 3. * 3. % 3. % 4.&2 4.&2 4.& 4.&21-Au -14 3.' 3.' 3.' 3. 2 3. 2 3. 2 3. & 3. & 3. * 3. * 4.&3 4.&32 -Au -14 3.' 3.' 3.' 3. 2 3. 2 3. 2 3. 1 3. 1 3. * 3. * 4.&3 4.&3

4-Sep-14 3.4* 3.4* 3.4* 3.'& 3.'& 3.'& 3.' 3.' 3.*' 3.*' 3. 3 3. 311-Sep-14 3.41 3.41 3.41 3.%4 3.%4 3.%4 3.'2 3.'2 3.' 3.' 3.** 3.**1 -Sep-14 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.%1 3.%1 3.%1 3.% 3.% 3.'' 3.'' 3.*4 3.*42%-Sep-14 3.2' 3.2' 3.2' 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.%% 3.%% 3.'2 3.'2

2-+"t-14 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.3' 3.3' 3.3' 3.44 3.44 3.%2 3.%2 3.'& 3.'&-+"t-14 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.% 3.% 3.% 3.'* 3.'* 3.*4 3.*4 3. 2 3. 2

1'-+"t-1423-+"t-143&-+"t-14

'-,o -1413-,o -142&-,o -142*-,o -14

4-De"-1411-De"-141 -De"-142%-De"-14

$%1( 1- a -1%- a -1%

1%- a -1%22- a -1%2 - a -1%%-Feb-1%

12-Feb-1%1 -Feb-1%2'-Feb-1%

%-0ar-1%12-0ar-1%1 -0ar-1%2'-0ar-1%

2-Apr-1%-Apr-1%

1'-Apr-1%23-Apr-1%3&-Apr-1%*-0a/-1%

14-0a/-1%

21-0a/-1%2 -0a/-1%

4- u -1%11- u -1%1 - u -1%2%- u -1%

2- ul-1%- ul-1%

1'- ul-1%23- ul-1%3&- ul-1%'-Au -1%

13-Au -1%2&-Au -1%2*-Au -1%

18 ?ee;l/ ore"ast re le"ts utures settle$e t pr "e o t at 6ate.

Table . ont,ly price-received forecast )nearby futures price plus t,e basis* by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1&'1(Cale 6ar Fore"ast Bas s a era e 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1& 1-0a/-14 Bas s 5 %-/ear a . 2&& -2&12 $;t. /r. 4.4 4.%4 4.' 4.*% 4.*' 4. 3 4. 3 4. * %.&* %.13 %.13 %.&%

-0a/-14 4.'1 4.'' 4. 1 4. ' 4. * 4. 4 4. 4 %.& %.1 %.24 %.23 %.1%1%-0a/-14 4.2 4.34 4.%& 4.%% 4.%* 4.'4 4.'3 4.** 4. 4. 4 %.&4 4. '22-0a/-14 4.22 4.2* 4.43 4.%& 4.%1 4.% 4.% 4.*2 4. 3 4. 4. 4. &2 -0a/-14 4.12 4.1* 4.32 4.3 4.41 4.4 4.4 4.'2 4.*3 4.* 4. & 4. 2

%- u -14 3. ' 4.&1 4.1* 4.24 4.2% 4.32 4.33 4.4* 4.% 4.'4 4.* 4.*112- u -14 3. 3 3. * 4.13 %.21 %.23 %.3& 4.31 4.4% 4.%' 4.'2 4.* 4.*&1 - u -14 3. ' 4.&1 4.1* 4.2% 4.2' 4.33 4.34 4.4 4.'& 4.'% 4. 1 4.*42'- u -14 3. 2 3. * 4.13 4.21 4.22 4.2 4.3& 4.44 4.%' 4.'2 4.* 4.*&

3- ul-14 3.'4 3.' 3. % 3. 4 3. % 4.&2 4.&3 4.1* 4.3& 4.3% 4.%* 4.41&- ul-14 3.42 3.4' 3.'2 3.*1 3.*2 3.* 3. 1 3. % 4.&* 4.13 4.3* 4.21*- ul-14 3.3' 3.41 3.%* 3.'' 3.'* 3.*4 3.*' 3. 1 4.&4 4.& 4.3' 4.224- ul-14 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.%& 3.%* 3.% 3.*3 3. % 3. 1 4.1 4.1131- ul-14 3.1' 3.21 3.3' 3.4' 3.4 3.%% 3.%* 3.*1 3. 4 3. 4.1* 4.&*-Au -14 3.2& 3.2% 3.41 3.%1 3.%3 3.'& 3.'1 3.*' 3. 3. 3 4.2& 4.12

14-Au -14 3.22 3.2* 3.43 3.%4 3.%% 3.'2 3.'4 3.* 3. & 3. ' 4.23 4.1%21-Au -14 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.%& 3.%* 3.% 3.*3 3. % 3. 1 4.1* 4.1&2 -Au -14 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.%1 3.% 3.% 3.*4 3. % 3. 1 4.1 4.1&

4-Sep-14 2. % 3.&& 3.1' 3.2' 3.2 3.3% 3.3* 3.%1 3.'4 3.*& 3. 3. &11-Sep-14 2. & 2. % 3.1& 3.2& 3.22 3.2 3.31 3.4% 3.% 3.'3 3. 2 3. 41 -Sep-14 2. * 2. 2 3.& 3.1 3.1 3.2' 3.2 3.42 3.%% 3.'& 3. 3. 12%-Sep-14 2.*% 2. & 2. % 3.&' 3.&* 3.14 3.1' 3.31 3.43 3.4 3.** 3.'

2-+"t-14 Bas s 5 %-/ear a . 2&& -2&13 $;t. /r. 2. * 2.*' 2. 4 2. * 2. 3.&4 3.&% 3.22 3.42 3.4 3.*3 3.''-+"t-14 3.1 2. 3.&' 3.1 3.2& 3.2' 3.2 3.44 3.'4 3.*1 3. % 3.

1'-+"t-1423-+"t-143&-+"t-14

'-,o -1413-,o -142&-,o -142*-,o -14

4-De"-1411-De"-14

eekly forecast of the corn season *average farm price received and implied price loss coverage 01234 payment rate for crop y ear + - 5-/ :

The user may change the weekly fore cast by go ing to the chan$e forecast worksheet.

8xplanation of forecast 0table -4

3hart o f weekly futures model forecasts for the entire marketing year 0figu re -4

8xplanation of detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year 0tables + through >4

%tep ? - enters the most recent Thursday(s settlement price from each tra ding contract into table -, column B. These price s provide a futures price for eac h mon th as found in column 3.

%tep ? + calculates a monthly price forecast found in column 8 by add ing a mo ving /*year average basis found in c olumn& to the monthly futures pric e found in column 3 . 3olumn ) reflects, w hen available, a ctual month ly farm prices received

by $.%. producers.

%tep ? 6 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into co lumn ), if available. 'nitia lly, this is a mid*month price but a m onth late r be comes the full mon th price received .

%tep ? comp utes each monthCs price weight, as found in co lumn ', and is a product of columns D and E. 3olu mn Dreflects a co mpo site f orecast de rived from farm prices received or f utures prices. 3olu mn E reflects each monthCs /*year*moving*average monthly marketing weight.

0ar;et/ear $o t18

Curre t uturespr "e b/ tra6

"o tra"t 28

Futures pr "e b ase6o earb/ "o tra"t 38

Bas s (%-/ear .S.a era e)

0o t l/ ar$pr "e ore"a st

A"tual $o t l/ar$ pr "e< a a lable 48

Co$pos te $o t l/ore"ast a"tual8 utures

0o t l/ $ar;ete ts (%-/ear .S.

a era e)

0o t l/ pr "ee t

5 e ere "e !r "e (78bu.) $ us t e 9ar er o (0ar;et /ear at o al ar$ pr "e (78bu.) or ,at o al $ar;et ass sta "e loa rate (78bu.))

The 123 payment rate will be po sitive if both the futures fore cast of the season*ave rage price rec eived and national

marketing assistanc e loan rate, F -. 5bu.

The 123 payment rate will be G ero if both the futures forecast of th e se ason*aver age price received and national marketingassistance loan rate a re e7ual to the re ference price of F 6.> 5bu .

The 123 payment rate will be neg ative or Ge ro if either the futures forecast of the season*average price received ornational marketing assistance loan rate are greater than the r eferen ce price of F 6.> 5bu.

E5%lanation of e taile co!%u tation al ste%s for the 4 ee3l) future s !o el forecasts 'ta6le + throu$h 7(

%tep ? - enters ea ch Thu rsda yCs settlement price fr om each trading contra ct for the respective marketing year(s month .1rices are taken from &ataHtable- and entered into table +.

%tep ? + ca lculates a monthly price* received forecast and e nters into table 6. This forecast is the sum of a /*year average

monthly basis from &ataH Table and th e futures price in table + .

%tep ? 6 inserts a mon thly pric e received , if ava ila ble, from &ataH Table into ta ble . 'nitially , this is a mid*month price but a m onth late r be comes the full mon th price received .

%tep ? com putes each monthCs pric e received forecast, weig hted by pe rcentage of monthly marketings, and inserts intotable @. 't is a product of the monthly com posite forecast in table / times a /*year average of monthly marketing weigh tfrom &ataH Table - .

%tep ? / com putes the we ekly forecasts fo r season*average price rec eived and enters them into table >. 8ach wee klyforecast is a su mmation o f that we ek(s price weights 0table @4 for each month of the marketing year.

%tep ? @ ca lculates forecasts of the price lo ss coverage 01234 pa yme nt rate and enters them in table >. 1olic y pa rameters

are in &ataH Table -6.

%. %%

%. (%

1. %%

1. (%

$. %%

$. (%

. %%

. (%

&. %%

&. (%

(. %%

(. (%

0. %%

0. (%

. %%

. (%

2. %%

2. (%

%.% %

%.% (

%.1 %

%.1 (

%.$ %

%.$ (

%. %

%. (

%.& %

%.& (

Fig ur e 1. Fu tur es for eca st o f .S. c orn p rod ucers !se aso n-aver age price r eceiv ed )S3P * and P LC paymentrat e" ma r# e ting yea r $%1 &'1(

A"t ua lSA ! (a-a l ab l e # + "tob er 2&1%)

Futures S A! 3 or e"as t

0 6p o #t o3 t e ? A S DE S A! p r o e" t o #

Be 3 e r e# " e ! r " e

,a t o #a l$a r;et # ass st a#"e l oa# ra t e

Futures ! 9C p a/$ e# t r ate 3 ore"as t

?AS DE !9C pa/$ e#t rate pro e"t o#

Forecast p er iod

S e a s o n - a

v e r a g e p r i c e r e c e i v e d ) D o l l a r s p e r b u s , e l *

P L C p a y m e n t r a t e ) D o l l a r s p e r b u s , e l *


3/20

1 -De"-142%-De"-14

$%1& 1- a -1%- a -1%

1%- a -1%22- a -1%2 - a -1%%-Feb-1%

12-Feb-1%1 -Feb-1%2'-Feb-1%

%-0ar-1%12-0ar-1%1 -0ar-1%2'-0ar-1%

2-Apr-1%-Apr-1%

1'-Apr-1%23-Apr-1%3&-Apr-1%*-0a/-1%

14-0a/-1%21-0a/-1%2 -0a/-1%

4- u -1%11- u -1%

1 - u -1%2%- u -1%2- ul-1%

- ul-1%1'- ul-1%23- ul-1%3&- ul-1%'-Au -1%

13-Au -1%2&-Au -1%2*-Au -1%


Table &. 3ctual mont,l y farm price received by /ee#ly forecast period " mar#eting year $%1&'1(

Cale 6ar Fore"ast elease 6ate o 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1& 1-0a/-14

-0a/-141%-0a/-1422-0a/-142 -0a/-14

%- u -1412- u -141 - u -142'- u -14

3- ul-141&- ul-141*- ul-1424- ul-1431- ul-14*-Au -14

14-Au -1421-Au -142 -Au -14

4-Sep-1411-Sep-141 -Sep-142%-Sep-14

2-+"t-14 2 -Sep-14 3.3-+"t-14 3.3

1'-+"t-1423-+"t-14

3&-+"t-14'-,o -1413-,o -142&-,o -142*-,o -14

4-De"-1411-De"-141 -De"-142%-De"-14

$%1( 1- a -1%- a -1%

1%- a -1%22- a -1%2 - a -1%%-Feb-1%

12-Feb-1%1 -Feb-1%2'-Feb-1%

%-0ar-1%12-0ar-1%1 -0ar-1%2'-0ar-1%

2-Apr-1%-Apr-1%

1'-Apr-1%23-Apr-1%3&-Apr-1%*-0a/-1%

14-0a/-1%21-0a/-1%2 -0a/-1%

4- u -1%11- u -1%1 - u -1%2%- u -1%

2- ul-1%- ul-1%

1'- ul-1%23- ul-1%3&- ul-1%'-Au -1%

13-Au -1%2&-Au -1%2*-Au -1%

18 ?ee;l/ ore"ast re le"t s a a lable ar$ pr "es re"e e6 o t at 6ate.

Table (. Composite forecast of fu tures forecasts and actual price received )/ ,en available*" by /ee#ly forecast period " mar#eting year $%1&'1(Cale 6ar Fore"ast 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1& 1-0a/-14 4.4 4.%4 4.' 4.*% 4.*' 4. 3 4. 3 4. * %.&* %.13 %.13 %.&%

-0a/-14 4.'1 4.'' 4. 1 4. ' 4. * 4. 4 4. 4 %.& %.1 %.24 %.23 %.1%1%-0a/-14 4.2 4.34 4.%& 4.%% 4.%* 4.'4 4.'3 4.** 4. 4. 4 %.&4 4. '22-0a/-14 4.22 4.2* 4.43 4.%& 4.%1 4.% 4.% 4.*2 4. 3 4. 4. 4. &2 -0a/-14 4.12 4.1* 4.32 4.3 4.41 4.4 4.4 4.'2 4.*3 4.* 4. & 4. 2

%- u -14 3. ' 4.&1 4.1* 4.24 4.2% 4.32 4.33 4.4* 4.% 4.'4 4.* 4.*112- u -14 3. 3 3. * 4.13 %.21 %.23 %.3& 4.31 4.4% 4.%' 4.'2 4.* 4.*&

1 - u -14 3. ' 4.&1 4.1* 4.2% 4.2' 4.33 4.34 4.4 4.'& 4.'% 4. 1 4.*42'- u -14 3. 2 3. * 4.13 4.21 4.22 4.2 4.3& 4.44 4.%' 4.'2 4.* 4.*&

3- ul-14 3.'4 3.' 3. % 3. 4 3. % 4.&2 4.&3 4.1* 4.3& 4.3% 4.%* 4.41&- ul-14 3.42 3.4' 3.'2 3.*1 3.*2 3.* 3. 1 3. % 4.&* 4.13 4.3* 4.21*- ul-14 3.3' 3.41 3.%* 3.'' 3.'* 3.*4 3.*' 3. 1 4.&4 4.& 4.3' 4.224- ul-14 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.%& 3.%* 3.% 3.*3 3. % 3. 1 4.1 4.1131- ul-14 3.1' 3.21 3.3' 3.4' 3.4 3.%% 3.%* 3.*1 3. 4 3. 4.1* 4.&*-Au -14 3.2& 3.2% 3.41 3.%1 3.%3 3.'& 3.'1 3.*' 3. 3. 3 4.2& 4.12

14-Au -14 3.22 3.2* 3.43 3.%4 3.%% 3.'2 3.'4 3.* 3. & 3. ' 4.23 4.1%21-Au -14 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.%& 3.%* 3.% 3.*3 3. % 3. 1 4.1* 4.1&2 -Au -14 3.1 3.23 3.3 3.4 3.%1 3.% 3.% 3.*4 3. % 3. 1 4.1 4.1&

4-Sep-14 2. % 3.&& 3.1' 3.2' 3.2 3.3% 3.3* 3.%1 3.'4 3.*& 3. 3. &11-Sep-14 2. & 2. % 3.1& 3.2& 3.22 3.2 3.31 3.4% 3.% 3.'3 3. 2 3. 41 -Sep-14 2. * 2. 2 3.& 3.1 3.1 3.2' 3.2 3.42 3.%% 3.'& 3. 3. 12%-Sep-14 2.*% 2. & 2. % 3.&' 3.&* 3.14 3.1' 3.31 3.43 3.4 3.** 3.'

2-+"t-14 3.3 2.*' 2. 4 2. * 2. 3.&4 3.&% 3.22 3.42 3.4 3.*3 3.''-+"t-14 3.3 2. 3.&' 3.1 3.2& 3.2' 3.2 3.44 3.'4 3.*1 3. % 3.

1'-+"t-1423-+"t-143&-+"t-14

'-,o -1413-,o -142&-,o -142*-,o -14

4-De"-1411-De"-141 -De"-142%-De"-14

$%1( 1- a -1%- a -1%

1%- a -1%22- a -1%2 - a -1%%-Feb-1%

12-Feb-1%1 -Feb-1%2'-Feb-1%

%-0ar-1%12-0ar-1%1 -0ar-1%2'-0ar-1%

2-Apr-1%-Apr-1%

1'-Apr-1%

23-Apr-1%3&-Apr-1%*-0a/-1%

14-0a/-1%21-0a/-1%2 -0a/-1%

4- u -1%11- u -1%1 - u -1%2%- u -1%

2- ul-1%- ul-1%

1'- ul-1%23- ul-1%3&- ul-1%

'-Au -1%13-Au -1%2&-Au -1%2*-Au -1%

18 ?ee;l/ ore"ast re le"ts settle$e t utures pr "es a 68or a a lable ar$ pr "es re"e e6 o t at 6ate.

Table 0. Composite forecast'actual mont,l y farm price received /eig ,ted by percentage of mont,l y mar#etin gs by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1&'1(Cale 6ar Fore"ast 0ar;et - e t a era e 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1& 1-0a/-14 0;t. t. 5 %-/ear a . 2&& -2&12 $;t. /r. &.33 &.%* &.%3 &.43 &.'' &.33 &.4& &.3& &.31 &.32 &.34 &.3&

-0a/-14 &.34 &.% &.%% &.44 &.'* &.34 &.41 &.3& &.32 &.33 &.3% &.3&1%-0a/-14 &.32 &.%4 &.%1 &.41 &.'3 &.32 &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.33 &.222-0a/-14 &.31 &.%4 &.%& &.4& &.'2 &.31 &.3 &.2 &.2 &.31 &.33 &.22 -0a/-14 &.3& &.%2 &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3* &.2 &.2 &.3& &.32 &.2

%- u -14 &.2 &.%& &.4* &.3 &.% &.3& &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.212- u -14 &.2 &.%& &.4* &.4* &.*2 &.3' &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.21 - u -14 &.2 &.%& &.4* &.3 &.% &.3& &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.22'- u -14 &.2 &.%& &.4* &.3 &.% &.2 &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.2

3- ul-14 &.2* &.4' &.44 &.3% &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.3& &.2'1&- ul-14 &.2% &.43 &.41 &.33 &.%1 &.2' &.32 &.24 &.2% &.2' &.2 &.2%1*- ul-14 &.2% &.43 &.4& &.33 &.%1 &.2' &.31 &.23 &.2% &.2' &.2 &.2%24- ul-14 &.23 &.41 &.3 &.31 &.4 &.24 &.3& &.22 &.24 &.24 &.2 &.2431- ul-14 &.23 &.4& &.3 &.31 &.4 &.24 &.3& &.22 &.23 &.24 &.2 &.24*-Au -14 &.23 &.41 &.3 &.32 &.4 &.2% &.3& &.22 &.24 &.2% &.2 &.24

14-Au -14 &.24 &.41 &.3 &.32 &.4 &.2% &.3& &.23 &.24 &.2% &.2 &.2421-Au -14 &.23 &.4& &.3 &.31 &.4 &.24 &.3& &.22 &.23 &.24 &.2 &.242 -Au -14 &.23 &.4& &.3 &.31 &.4 &.24 &.3& &.22 &.24 &.24 &.2 &.24

4-Sep-14 &.22 &.3 &.3' &.2 &.4% &.23 &.2 &.21 &.22 &.23 &.2' &.2311-Sep-14 &.21 &.3* &.3% &.2 &.44 &.22 &.2 &.21 &.22 &.23 &.2' &.231 -Sep-14 &.21 &.3* &.3% &.2 &.44 &.22 &.2* &.2& &.22 &.22 &.2' &.222%-Sep-14 &.2& &.3% &.33 &.2 &.42 &.21 &.2' &.2& &.21 &.22 &.2% &.22

2-+"t-14 0;t. t. 5 %-/ear a . 2&& -2&13 $;t. /r. &.2% &.3' &.32 &.2* &.42 &.23 &.2% &.2& &.1 &.21 &.24 &.21-+"t-14 &.2% &.3 &.3% &.2 &.4% &.24 &.2* &.21 &.1 &.22 &.2% &.22

1'-+"t-1423-+"t-143&-+"t-14

'-,o -1413-,o -142&-,o -142*-,o -14

4-De"-1411-De"-14

1 -De"-142%-De"-14

$%1( 1- a -1%- a -1%

1%- a -1%22- a -1%2 - a -1%%-Feb-1%

12-Feb-1%1 -Feb-1%2'-Feb-1%

%-0ar-1%12-0ar-1%1 -0ar-1%2'-0ar-1%

2-Apr-1%-Apr-1%

1'-Apr-1%23-Apr-1%3&-Apr-1%*-0a/-1%

14-0a/-1%21-0a/-1%2 -0a/-1%

4- u -1%11- u -1%1 - u -1%2%- u -1%

2- ul-1%- ul-1%

1'- ul-1%23- ul-1%3&- ul-1%'-Au -1%

13-Au -1%2&-Au -1%2*-Au -1%


Table . Fu tures forecast of season-average price received )S3P* and impl ied price lo ss coverage )PLC* payment rate by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1&'1(

Futures SA! ore"ast ?ASDE release 6ate e ere "e !r "e

Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el$%1& 1-0a/-14 4. 1 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&

-0a/-14 4. 2 4.2& -0a/-14 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&1%-0a/-14 4.'3 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&22-0a/-14 4.%* 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&2 -0a/-14 4.4* 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&

%- u -14 4.32 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&12- u -14 4.% 4.2& 11- u -14 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&1 - u -14 4.33 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&2'- u -14 4.2 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&

3- ul-14 4.&3 4.2& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&1&- ul-14 3. & 4.&& 11- ul-14 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&1*- ul-14 3.*' 4.&& 3.*& 1. % &.&& &.&&24- ul-14 3.% 4.&& 3.*& 1. % &.12 &.&&31- ul-14 3.%' 4.&& 3.*& 1. % &.14 &.&&*-Au -14 3.'& 4.&& 3.*& 1. % &.1& &.&&

14-Au -14 3.'3 3. & 12-Au -14 3.*& 1. % &.&* &.&&21-Au -14 3.% 3. & 3.*& 1. % &.12 &.&&2 -Au -14 3.% 3. & 3.*& 1. % &.12 &.&&

4-Sep-14 3.3' 3. & 3.*& 1. % &.34 &.&&11-Sep-14 3.3& 3.%& 11-Sep-14 3.*& 1. % &.4& &.2&1 -Sep-14 3.2 3.%& 3.*& 1. % &.42 &.2&2%-Sep-14 3.1' 3.%& 3.*& 1. % &.%4 &.2&

2-+"t-14 3.13 3.%& 3.*& 1. % &.%* &.2&-+"t-14 3.33 3.4& 1&-+"t-14 3.*& 1. % &.3* &.3& E 6 o Data

1'-+"t-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

Agricultural Prices 28

28 Agricultura l Prices or a / e $o t (e. .< Septe$ber) l sts pr "es re"e e6 t at $o t (Septe$ber). : e last pr "e l ste6 t e ro s a $ 6-$o t pr "e a 6 al l ot ers are ull $o t pr "es.

Cale 6ar/ear

Fore"ast per o618

0 6po t o t e?ASDE SA!

pro e"t o

A"tual SA! (a a lable +"tober 2&1%)

,at o al$ar;et

ass sta "e

loa rate

Futures!9C

pa/$e t

rate ore"ast

?ASDE!9C

pa/$e t

ratepro e"t o


4/20

23-+"t-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A3&-+"t-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

'-,o -14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A13-,o -14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2&-,o -14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2*-,o -14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

4-De"-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A11-De"-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A1 -De"-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2%-De"-14 #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

$%1( 1- a -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A- a -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

1%- a -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A22- a -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2 - a -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A%-Feb-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

12-Feb-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A1 -Feb-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2'-Feb-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

%-0ar-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A12-0ar-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A1 -0ar-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2'-0ar-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

2-Apr-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A-Apr-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

1'-Apr-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

23-Apr-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A3&-Apr-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A*-0a/-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

14-0a/-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A21-0a/-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2 -0a/-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

4- u -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A11- u -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A1 - u -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2%- u -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

2- ul-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A- ul-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

1'- ul-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A23- ul-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A3&- ul-1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

'-Au -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A13-Au -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2&-Au -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A2*-Au -1% #,8A #,8A 3.*& 1. % #,8A #,8A

#,A 5 ,ot a a lable.18 Date o " t e settle$e t pr "es are obser e6.


5/20

+,-1/- forecastThis worksheet provides:

NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.

2ee3l) forecast of the corn seaso n"a#era$ e far! %rice recei#e an i!%lie co unter"c)clical %a)!ent 'CCP( rate for cro% )ear +, -1 /- :

Date of 4ee3l) forecast + *Aug*-

Season-av erage farm price receiv ed CCP rate

&ollars per bushel

)utures model forecast . @ .

!idpoint of A%&8 pro9ection . / .

E5%lanation of forecast 'ta6le -(:

%tep ? / computes the season*average price received forecast, a summation of monthly p rice weights found in column '.

%tep ? @ calculates the coun ter*cyclical payment rate 0target price less th e effective price4.

Date of futures forecast: + *Aug*-Table 1. Futures model forecast of .S. corn producers! season-average price receiv ed and CCP rate" mar#eting year $%1 '1&

Step # 1 Step # 2 Step # 3 Step # 4 (Col. A) (Col. B) (Col. C) (Col. D) (Col. E) (Col. F) (Col. G) (Col. H) (Col. I)

-------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bus el------------------------------------------------------------------------- !er"e t Dollars per bus elSepte$ber -&.%1 /. %.4& *.3 &.3 '+"tober -&.4' .@- 4.'1 12.% &.%*,o e$ber -&.31 .6/ 4.3% 11.3 &.4 3De"e$ber -&.33 . - 4.41 .& &.3 *

a uar/ -&.32 . + 4.42 13. &.'1&Februar/ -&.2% .6/ 4.3% '. &.20ar" -&.31 ./- 4.%1 .3 &.3*'

Apr l -&.1* .>- 4.*1 '.& &.2 20a/ -&.12 .>- 4.*1 '.1 &.2 *

u e -&.&' . < 4.4 '.2 &.2 &ul/ 3.'2 &.1% 3.*' 6. 3. & '.' &.2%1

Au ust 3.'2 &.&* 3.' 3.' %. &.21*

Septe$ber 6.@+ Su$ o e ts 5 1&&.&

Forecast of season-av erage price receiv ed:

Step # % Futures $o6el ore"ast o t e seaso -a era e pr "e re"e e6 ( e te6 a era e) (78bu.) 5 4.4'

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:Step # '

CC! rate (78bu.) &.&& 5 :ar et pr "e (78bu.) 2.'3 - E e"t e pr "e (78bu.) 4.*4

E e"t e pr "e (78bu.) 4.*4 5 D re"t pa/$e t rate t e lar er o ,at o al a era e pr "e or ,at o al a era e&.2 re"e e6 or $;t /r. loa rate

4.4' 1. %

18 : e $ar;et /ear or "or s Septe$ber-Au ust.28 Co tra"t $o t s "lu6e De"e$ber< 0ar" < 0a/< ul/< a 6< Septe$ber. Futures pr "e =uotat o ro$ t e C0E Group8C "a o Boar6 o : ra6e sett le$e t pr "es.

A alue o >ero $pl es a a"tual pr "e s a a lable or t at 6ate.38 ? e t e ore"ast $o t "o " 6es t t e $o t 6ur " t e "o tra"t e@p res< utures pr "es are obta e6 ro$ t e e@t earb/ "o tra"t.48 A alue o >ero $pl es ar$ pr "es re"e e6 are ot a a lable. : e last pr "e l ste6 t s "olu$ represe ts t e $ 6-$o t pr "e< ot er pr "es re le"t t e ull $o t pr "e.

Chart of 4ee3l) futures !o el forecasts for the entire !ar3etin$ )ear 'fi$ure -(

Table $. +ee#ly nearby futures price by mar#eting year mont," mar#eting year $%1 '1&Cale 6ar Fore"ast 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1 2-0a/-13 %.% %.% %.% %.' %.' %.' %.** %.** %. 4 %. 4 %.'' %.''

-0a/-13 %.42 %.42 %.42 %.%2 %.%2 %.%2 %.% %.% %.'' %.'' %.%& %.%&1'-0a/-13 %.24 %.24 %.24 %.34 %.34 %.34 %.42 %.42 %.4 %.4 %.41 %.4123-0a/-13 %.3% %.3% %.3% %.4' %.4' %.4' %.%3 %.%3 %.'1 %.'1 %.%2 %.%23&-0a/-13 %.'3 %.'3 %.'3 %.*3 %.*3 %.*3 %. & %. & %. ' %. ' %.*& %.*&

'- u -13 %.4 %.4 %.4 %.% %.% %.% %.'' %.'' %.*3 %.*3 %.'4 %.'413- u -13 %.3% %.3% %.3% %.4* %.4* %.4* %.%4 %.%4 %.'1 %.'1 %.%3 %.%32&- u -13 %.'1 %.'1 %.'1 %.*1 %.*1 %.*1 %.* %.* %. % %. % %.*4 %.*42*- u -13 %.3 %.3 %.3 %.4 %.4 %.4 %.%' %.%' %.'3 %.'3 %.%4 %.%4

4- ul-13 %.&3 %.&3 %.&3 %.1% %.1% %.1% %.23 %.23 %.3& %.3& %.3& %.3&11- ul-13 %.2* %.2* %.2* %.3 %.3 %.3 %.4* %.4* %.%3 %.%3 %.%& %.%&1 - ul-13 %.&1 %.&1 %.&1 %.13 %.13 %.13 %.21 %.21 %.2* %.2* %.2' %.2'2%- ul-13 4.* 4.* 4.* 4. 1 4. 1 4. 1 4. 4. %.&' %.&' %.& %.&1-Au -13 4.'* 4.'* 4.'* 4. & 4. & 4. & 4. 4. 4. 3 4. 3 4. % 4. %

-Au -13 4.'& 4.'& 4.'& 4.*3 4.*3 4.*3 4. 2 4. 2 4. * 4. * 4. 1 4. 11%-Au -13 4.*2 4.*2 4.*2 4. % 4. % 4. % 4. 3 4. 3 4. 4. %.&3 %.&322-Au -13 4.'% 4.'% 4.'% 4.** 4.** 4.** 4. % 4. % 4. 1 4. 1 4. 4 4. 42 -Au -13 4. 2 4. 2 4. 2 4. 4 4. 4 4. 4 %.&2 %.&2 %.& %.& %.1& %.1&

%-Sep-13 4.'1 4.'1 4.'1 4.*4 4.*4 4.*4 4. 3 4. 3 4. 4. 4. 2 4. 212-Sep-13 4.'' 4.'' 4.'' 4.* 4.* 4.* 4. * 4. * 4. 4 4. 4 4. 4.1 -Sep-13 4.'& 4.'& 4.'& 4.*2 4.*2 4.*2 4. & 4. & 4. * 4. * 4. 1 4. 12'-Sep-13 4.%* 4.%* 4.%* 4.*& 4.*& 4.*& 4.* 4.* 4. 4 4. 4 4. * 4. *

3-+"t-13 4.4& 4.4& 4.4& 4.%2 4.%2 4.%2 4.'& 4.'& 4.' 4.' 4.*3 4.*31&-+"t-13 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.%1 4.%1 4.%1 4.'& 4.'& 4.'* 4.'* 4.*3 4.*31*-+"t-13 4.43 4.43 4.43 4.%' 4.%' 4.%' 4.'4 4.'4 4.*1 4.*1 4.*' 4.*'24-+"t-13 4.4& 4.4& 4.4& 4.%3 4.%3 4.%3 4.'1 4.'1 4.' 4.' 4.*% 4.*%31-+"t-13 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.%4 4.%4 4.'1 4.'1

*-,o -13 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.4& 4.4& 4.4* 4.4* 4.%3 4.%314-,o -13 4.2* 4.2* 4.2* 4.3* 4.3* 4.3* 4.4% 4.4% 4.%2 4.%2 4.% 4.%21-,o -13 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.3& 4.3& 4.3& 4.3 4.3 4.4% 4.4% 4.%& 4.%&2 -,o -13 4.1* 4.1* 4.1* 4.2* 4.2* 4.2* 4.3% 4.3% 4.42 4.42 4.4 4.4

%-De"-13 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.42 4.42 4.4 4.4 4.%% 4.%%12-De"-13 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.43 4.43 4.4 4.4 4.%% 4.%%1 -De"-13 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.3 4.3 4.4' 4.4' 4.%2 4.%2

2'-De"-13 4.2' 4.2' 4.2' 4.3% 4.3% 4.42 4.42 4.4 4.4$%1& 2- a -14 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.2 4.2 4.3' 4.3' 4.4% 4.4%

- a -14 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.2& 4.2& 4.2 4.2 4.34 4.341'- a -14 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3' 4.3' 4.42 4.42 4.4* 4.4*23- a -14 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3% 4.3% 4.41 4.41 4.4% 4.4%3&- a -14 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.4& 4.4& 4.44 4.44 4.4' 4.4''-Feb-14 4.43 4.43 4.43 4.4 4.4 4.%4 4.%4 4.%% 4.%%

13-Feb-14 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.4* 4.4* 4.%1 4.%1 4.%2 4.%22&-Feb-14 4.%' 4.%' 4.%' 4.'2 4.'2 4.'* 4.'* 4.'* 4.'*2*-Feb-14 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.%% 4.%% 4.% 4.% 4.% 4.%

'-0ar-14 4. 1 4. 1 4. % 4. % 4. 1 4. 113-0ar-14 4. % 4. % 4. 4. 4. ' 4. '2&-0ar-14 4.* 4.* 4. 4 4. 4 4. 2 4. 22*-0ar-14 4. 2 4. 2 4. ' 4. ' 4. 2 4. 2

3-Apr-14 %.&& %.&& %.&% %.&% %.&3 %.&31&-Apr-14 %.&1 %.&1 %.&* %.&* %.&* %.&*1*-Apr-14 4. % 4. % %.&1 %.&1 4. 4.24-Apr-14 %.&1 %.&1 %.&* %.&* %.&% %.&%1-0a/-14 %.&* %.&* %.&3 %.&3

-0a/-14 %.1* %.1* %.13 %.131%-0a/-14 4. 4 4. 4 4. 1 4. 122-0a/-14 4.** 4.** 4.*4 4.*42 -0a/-14 4.*& 4.*& 4.'3 4.'3

%- u -14 4.4 4.4 4.44 4.4412- u -14 4.44 4.44 4.4& 4.4&1 - u -14 4.%1 4.%1 4.44 4.442'- u -14 4.43 4.43 4.3 4.3

3- ul-14 4.1& 4.1&1&- ul-14 3. ' 3. '1*- ul-14 3. & 3. &24- ul-14 3.'2 3.'231- ul-14 3.%* 3.%**-Au -14 3.'& 3.'&

14-Au -14 3.'2 3.'221-Au -14 3.'2 3.'22 -Au -14 3.'2 3.'2


Table . ont,ly price-received forecast )nearby futures price plus t,e basis* by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1 '1&Cale 6ar Fore"ast Bas s a era e 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1 2-0a/-13 Bas s5 %-/ear a . 2&&*-2&11 $;t. /r. %.1* %.21 %.2 %.31 %.23 %.32 %.2 %.3% %.4 %.4& %.2' %.4&

-0a/-13 4. %.&4 %.11 %.14 %.&% %.1% %.12 %.1* %.3& %.23 %.1& %.241'-0a/-13 4. 2 4. ' 4. 3 4. * 4. 4. 4. 4 %.&& %.13 %.&' %.&1 %.1%23-0a/-13 4. 3 4. * %.&4 %.& 4. %.& %.&' %.11 %.2% %.1* %.12 %.2'3&-0a/-13 %.21 %.2% %.32 %.3% %.2' %.3' %.32 %.3* %.%& %.43 %.3& %.4%

'- u -13 %.&' %.11 %.1 %.21 %.12 %.22 %.1 %.24 %.3* %.3& %.24 %.3

13- u -13 4. 3 4. %.&% %.& %.&& %.1& %.&* %.12 %.2% %.1 %.13 %.22&- u -13 %.1 %.23 %.3& %.33 %.2% %.34 %.31 %.3' %.4 %.41 %.34 %.42*- u -13 4. ' %.&1 %.& %.12 %.&3 %.13 %.& %.14 %.2* %.2& %.14 %.2

4- ul-13 4.'1 4.'% 4.*2 4.** 4.' 4.* 4.*% 4. & 4. 4 4. ' 4. & %.&%11- ul-13 4. % 4. 4. ' %.&2 4. 3 %.&3 4. %.&% %.1* %.1& %.1& %.241 - ul-13 4.% 4.'3 4.*& 4.*% 4.'* 4.*' 4.*3 4.* 4. 1 4. 4 4. ' %.&&2%- ul-13 4.3* 4.41 4.4 4.%4 4.4% 4.%% 4.%2 4.%* 4.*& 4.'2 4.' 4. 21-Au -13 4.2% 4.2 4.3' 4.42 4.33 4.43 4.4& 4.4% 4.% 4.%& 4.%% 4.'

-Au -13 4.1 4.22 4.2 4.3' 4.2* 4.3* 4.34 4.3 4.%2 4.44 4.%1 4.'%1%-Au -13 4.3& 4.3% 4.42 4.4* 4.3 4.4 4.4% 4.%& 4.'3 4.%' 4.'3 4.*22-Au -13 4.22 4.2* 4.34 4.3 4.31 4.4& 4.3 4.43 4.%% 4.4 4.%4 4.'2 -Au -13 4.3 4.44 4.%1 4.%* 4.4 4.% 4.%% 4.'& 4.*2 4.'4 4.*& 4. %

%-Sep-13 4.1 4.23 4.3& 4.3' 4.2 4.3* 4.3% 4.4& 4.%3 4.4' 4.%2 4.'*12-Sep-13 4.24 4.2 4.3' 4.41 4.32 4.42 4.3 4.4% 4.% 4.%1 4.% 4.*31 -Sep-13 4.1* 4.22 4.2 4.34 4.2' 4.3% 4.33 4.3 4.%1 4.44 4.%1 4.''2'-Sep-13 4.1% 4.1 4.2' 4.32 4.23 4.33 4.3& 4.3% 4.4 4.41 4.4* 4.'1

3-+"t-13 Bas s5%-/ear a . 2&& -2&12 $;t. /r. 3. 3. 3 4.& 4.1 4.2& 4.2* 4.2 4.43 4.%' 4.'2 4. 4. &1&-+"t-13 3. * 3. 2 4.& 4.1 4.1 4.2' 4.2 4.43 4.%% 4.'1 4. 4. &1*-+"t-13 3. 2 3. * 4.12 4.22 4.24 4.31 4.33 4.4* 4.% 4.'% 4. 1 4. 324-+"t-13 3. 3. 4 4.1& 4.1 4.21 4.2 4.3& 4.44 4.%* 4.'3 4. & 4. 231-+"t-13 3.** 3. 2 3. 4.&' 4.& 4.1% 4.1' 4.31 4.43 4.4 4.*% 4.'

*-,o -13 3.' 3.*4 3. & 3. 4.&& 4.&* 4.& 4.23 4.3% 4.41 4.'* 4.'&14-,o -13 3.*% 3. & 3. ' 4.&3 4.&% 4.12 4.14 4.2 4.41 4.4' 4.*3 4.''21-,o -13 3.*2 3.** 3. 2 3. ' 3. 4.&% 4.&' 4.21 4.33 4.3 4.'% 4.%*2 -,o -13 3.'' 3.*1 3. * 3. 3 3. % 4.&2 4.&4 4.1 4.3& 4.3' 4.'3 4.%%

%-De"-13 4.&& 4.&2 4.& 4.11 4.2% 4.3* 4.43 4.*& 4.'212-De"-13 4.&1 4.&3 4.1& 4.11 4.2' 4.3 4.43 4.*& 4.'2

eekly forecast of the corn season*average farm price received and implied counter*cyclical payment 03314 rate for crop year + -65- :

The user ma y change th e weekly forecast by go ing to the c han$e forecast worksheet.

8xplanation of forecast 0table -4

3hart of weekly futures model forecasts for the entire marketing year 0figure -4

8xplanation o f detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year 0tables + throug h >4

%tep ? - ente rs the most recent Thu rsday(s settlement price from each trading contract into table -, column B. These prices provide a futures price for each mon th as found in column 3.

%tep ? + calculates a monthly price forecast found in column 8 by adding a moving /*year average basis found in column& to the monthly futures price found in column 3. 3olumn ) reflects, when available, a ctual monthly farm prices re ceived

by $.%. producers.

%tep ? 6 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into co lumn ), if available. 'nitia lly, this is a mid*month price but a month late r be comes the full month price received.

%tep ? computes each monthCs pr ice weight, as found in co lumn ', and is a product of columns D and E. 3olumn Dreflects a composite forecast derived from farm prices received or futures prices. 3olumn E reflects each monthCs /*year*moving*average monthly marketing weight.

0ar;et/ear $o t18

Curre t uturespr "e b/ tra6"o tra"t 28

Futures pr "e b ase6o earb/ "o tra"t 38 Bas s (%-/ear .S.a era e) 0o t l/ ar$pr "e ore"ast A"tu al $o t l/ar$ pr "e< a a lable 48

Co$pos te $o t l/ore"ast a"tual8 utures 0o t l/ $ar;ete ts (%-/ear .S.a era e)

0o t l / p r "ee t

The 331 rate will be po sitive if the futures forecast o f the season*average price received falls below the 331 trigger priceof F+.6/5bu.

The 331 rate will be Gero if the futures forecast of the season*a verag e price received e7uals or exceeds the 331 trigger price of F+.6/5bu.

The 331 rate will be at its ma ximum of F . 5bu. w hen the futures fore cast of the season*ave rage pr ice rec eive d is lessthan or e7ual to the national a verage loan rate of F-.


6/20

1 -De"-13 3. * 3. 4.&' 4.&* 4.22 4.34 4.4& 4.'' 4.% 2'-De"-13 3. 3 3. % 4.&2 4.&3 4.1 4.3& 4.3' 4.'2 4.%%

$%1& 2- a -14 3. * 3. 3. ' 3. 4.12 4.24 4.3& 4.'& 4.%2- a -14 3.* 3. & 3. * 3. 4.&3 4.1' 4.22 4.4 4.41

1'- a -14 3. % 3. ' 4.&3 4.&4 4.1 4.3& 4.3' 4.'1 4.%323- a -14 3. ' 3. * 4.&4 4.&4 4.1 4.3& 4.3% 4.% 4.%13&- a -14 4.&& 4.&2 4.& 4.& 4.23 4.32 4.3 4.'1 4.%3'-Feb-14 4.1& 4.12 4.1 4.1* 4.32 4.42 4.4 4.*& 4.'2

13-Feb-14 4.&* 4.& 4.1' 4.1% 4.3& 4.3 4.4% 4.'* 4.%2&-Feb-14 4.23 4.24 4.31 4.31 4.4% 4.%% 4.'1 4. 1 4.*32*-Feb-14 4.1% 4.1' 4.23 4.23 4.3 4.4* 4.%3 4.*3 4.'%

'-0ar-14 4.'& 4.*4 4. 4 4. %.&% 4. *13-0ar-14 4.%4 4.' 4.** 4. 3 %.&1 4. 32&-0ar-14 4.4* 4.'2 4.*2 4.* 4. ' 4.2*-0ar-14 4.'1 4.*% 4. % 4. & %.&' 4.

3-Apr-14 4.' 4. 3 4. 4 4. %.1* %.1&1&-Apr-14 4.*& 4. 4 4. % %.&1 %.22 %.141*-Apr-14 4.'4 4.* 4. 4. % %.13 %.&%24-Apr-14 4.*& 4. 4 4. % %.&1 %.2& %.121-0a/-14 4. % %.&1 %.1* %.1&

-0a/-14 %.&% %.11 %.2 %.2&1%-0a/-14 4.*3 4.* 4. ' 4.22-0a/-14 4.'% 4.*1 4. 4. 12 -0a/-14 4.% 4.'4 4.* 4.*&

%- u -14 4.3* 4.43 4.% 4.%112- u -14 4.32 4.3 4.%% 4.4*

1 - u -14 4.3 4.4% 4.% 4.%12'- u -14 4.31 4.3* 4.%4 4.4'3- ul-14 4.24 4.1'

1&- ul-14 4.&1 3. 31*- ul-14 3. 4 3. '24- ul-14 3.*' 3.'31- ul-14 3.*2 3.'4*-Au -14 3.*4 3.''

14-Au -14 3.** 3.'21-Au -14 3.** 3.'2 -Au -14 3.*' 3.'


Tabl e &. 3ctual mont,l y farm price received by /ee#ly forecast period " mar#eting year $%1 '1&Cale 6ar Fore"ast elease 6ate o 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1 2-0a/-13

-0a/-131'-0a/-1323-0a/-133&-0a/-13

'- u -1313- u -132&- u -132*- u -13

4- ul-1311- ul-131 - ul-132%- ul-131-Au -13

-Au -131%-Au -1322-Au -132 -Au -13

%-Sep-1312-Sep-131 -Sep-132'-Sep-13

3-+"t-13 2*-Sep-13 %.21&-+"t-13 %.21*-+"t-13 %.2

24-+"t-13 %.231-+"t-13 31-+"t-13 %.4& 4.4*-,o -13 %.4& 4.4

14-,o -13 %.4& 4.421-,o -13 %.4& 4.42 -,o -13 2*-,o -13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2

%-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.212-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.21 -De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2

2'-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2$%1& 2- a -14 3&-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31

- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.311'- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.3123- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.313&- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31

'-Feb-14 31- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3*13-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3*2&-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3*2*-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3*

'-0ar-14 2 -Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4*13-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4*2&-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4*2*-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4*

3-Apr-14 2 -0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%41&-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%41*-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%424-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%41-0a/-14 3&-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3

-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*31%-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*322-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*32 -0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3

%- u -14 3&-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*112- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*11 - u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*12'- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1

3- ul-14 2*- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3*1&- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3*1*- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3*24- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3*31- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3**-Au -14 31- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. &

14-Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. &21-Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. &2 -Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. &

18 ?ee;l/ ore"ast re le"t s a a lable ar$ pr "es re"e e6 o t at 6ate.

Tabl e (. Composite forecast of fu tures forecasts and actual price received )/ ,en availabl e*" by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1 '1&Cale 6ar Fore"ast 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1 2-0a/-13 %.1* %.21 %.2 %.31 %.23 %.32 %.2 %.3% %.4 %.4& %.2' %.4&

-0a/-13 4. %.&4 %.11 %.14 %.&% %.1% %.12 %.1* %.3& %.23 %.1& %.241'-0a/-13 4. 2 4. ' 4. 3 4. * 4. 4. 4. 4 %.&& %.13 %.&' %.&1 %.1%23-0a/-13 4. 3 4. * %.&4 %.& 4. %.& %.&' %.11 %.2% %.1* %.12 %.2'3&-0a/-13 %.21 %.2% %.32 %.3% %.2' %.3' %.32 %.3* %.%& %.43 %.3& %.4%

'- u -13 %.&' %.11 %.1 %.21 %.12 %.22 %.1 %.24 %.3* %.3& %.24 %.313- u -13 4. 3 4. %.&% %.& %.&& %.1& %.&* %.12 %.2% %.1 %.13 %.22&- u -13 %.1 %.23 %.3& %.33 %.2% %.34 %.31 %.3' %.4 %.41 %.34 %.42*- u -13 4. ' %.&1 %.& %.12 %.&3 %.13 %.& %.14 %.2* %.2& %.14 %.2

4- ul-13 4.'1 4.'% 4.*2 4.** 4.' 4.* 4.*% 4. & 4. 4 4. ' 4. & %.&%11- ul-13 4. % 4. 4. ' %.&2 4. 3 %.&3 4. %.&% %.1* %.1& %.1& %.241 - ul-13 4.% 4.'3 4.*& 4.*% 4.'* 4.*' 4.*3 4.* 4. 1 4. 4 4. ' %.&&2%- ul-13 4.3* 4.41 4.4 4.%4 4.4% 4.%% 4.%2 4.%* 4.*& 4.'2 4.' 4. 21-Au -13 4.2% 4.2 4.3' 4.42 4.33 4.43 4.4& 4.4% 4.% 4.%& 4.%% 4.'

-Au -13 4.1 4.22 4.2 4.3' 4.2* 4.3* 4.34 4.3 4.%2 4.44 4.%1 4.'%1%-Au -13 4.3& 4.3% 4.42 4.4* 4.3 4.4 4.4% 4.%& 4.'3 4.%' 4.'3 4.*22-Au -13 4.22 4.2* 4.34 4.3 4.31 4.4& 4.3 4.43 4.%% 4.4 4.%4 4.'2 -Au -13 4.3 4.44 4.%1 4.%* 4.4 4.% 4.%% 4.'& 4.*2 4.'4 4.*& 4. %

%-Sep-13 4.1 4.23 4.3& 4.3' 4.2 4.3* 4.3% 4.4& 4.%3 4.4' 4.%2 4.'*12-Sep-13 4.24 4.2 4.3' 4.41 4.32 4.42 4.3 4.4% 4.% 4.%1 4.% 4.*31 -Sep-13 4.1* 4.22 4.2 4.34 4.2' 4.3% 4.33 4.3 4.%1 4.44 4.%1 4.''2'-Sep-13 4.1% 4.1 4.2' 4.32 4.23 4.33 4.3& 4.3% 4.4 4.41 4.4* 4.'1

3-+"t-13 %.2 3. 3 4.& 4.1 4.2& 4.2* 4.2 4.43 4.%' 4.'2 4. 4. &1&-+"t-13 %.2 3. 2 4.& 4.1 4.1 4.2' 4.2 4.43 4.%% 4.'1 4. 4. &1*-+"t-13 %.2 3. * 4.12 4.22 4.24 4.31 4.33 4.4* 4.% 4.'% 4. 1 4. 324-+"t-13 %.2 3. 4 4.1& 4.1 4.21 4.2 4.3& 4.44 4.%* 4.'3 4. & 4. 231-+"t-13 %.2 4.4 3. 4.&' 4.& 4.1% 4.1' 4.31 4.43 4.4 4.*% 4.'

*-,o -13 %.4& 4.4 3. & 3. 4.&& 4.&* 4.& 4.23 4.3% 4.41 4.'* 4.'&14-,o -13 %.4& 4.4 3. ' 4.&3 4.&% 4.12 4.14 4.2 4.41 4.4' 4.*3 4.''21-,o -13 %.4& 4.4 3. 2 3. ' 3. 4.&% 4.&' 4.21 4.33 4.3 4.'% 4.%*2 -,o -13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2 3. 3 3. % 4.&2 4.&4 4.1 4.3& 4.3' 4.'3 4.%%

%-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2 4.&& 4.&2 4.& 4.11 4.2% 4.3* 4.43 4.*& 4.'212-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2 4.&1 4.&3 4.1& 4.11 4.2' 4.3 4.43 4.*& 4.'21 -De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2 3. * 3. 4.&' 4.&* 4.22 4.34 4.4& 4.'' 4.%

2'-De"-13 %.4& 4.'1 4.2 3. 3 3. % 4.&2 4.&3 4.1 4.3& 4.3' 4.'2 4.%%$%1& 2- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31 3. 3. ' 3. 4.12 4.24 4.3& 4.'& 4.%2

- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31 3. & 3. * 3. 4.&3 4.1' 4.22 4.4 4.411'- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31 3. ' 4.&3 4.&4 4.1 4.3& 4.3' 4.'1 4.%323- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31 3. * 4.&4 4.&4 4.1 4.3& 4.3% 4.% 4.%13&- a -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.31 4.&2 4.& 4.& 4.23 4.32 4.3 4.'1 4.%3'-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3* 4.1 4.1* 4.32 4.42 4.4 4.*& 4.'2

13-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3* 4.1' 4.1% 4.3& 4.3 4.4% 4.'* 4.%2&-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3* 4.31 4.31 4.4% 4.%% 4.'1 4. 1 4.*32*-Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.3* 4.23 4.23 4.3 4.4* 4.%3 4.*3 4.'%

'-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4* 4.'& 4.*4 4. 4 4. %.&% 4. *13-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4* 4.%4 4.' 4.** 4. 3 %.&1 4. 32&-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4* 4.4* 4.'2 4.*2 4.* 4. ' 4.2*-0ar-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4* 4.'1 4.*% 4. % 4. & %.&' 4.

3-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%4 4. 3 4. 4 4. %.1* %.1&

1&-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%4 4. 4 4. % %.&1 %.22 %.141*-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%4 4.* 4. 4. % %.13 %.&%24-Apr-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%4 4. 4 4. % %.&1 %.2& %.121-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3 4. % %.&1 %.1* %.1&

-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3 %.&% %.11 %.2 %.2&1%-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3 4.*3 4.* 4. ' 4.22-0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3 4.'% 4.*1 4. 4. 12 -0a/-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*3 4.% 4.'4 4.* 4.*&

%- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.43 4.% 4.%112- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3 4.%% 4.4*1 - u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4% 4.% 4.%12'- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3* 4.%4 4.4'

3- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3* 4.24 4.1'1&- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3* 4.&1 3. 31*- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3* 3. 4 3. '

24- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3* 3.*' 3.'31- ul-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3* 3.*2 3.'4*-Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. & 3.''

14-Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. & 3.'21-Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. & 3.'2 -Au -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.4 3. & 3.'

18 ?ee;l/ ore"ast re le"ts utures settle$e t pr "es a 68or a a lable ar$ pr "es re"e e6 o t at 6ate.

Tabl e 0. Composite forecast'actual mont,l y farm price received /eig ,ted by percentage of mont,l y mar#etin gs by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1 '1&Cale 6ar Fore"ast 0ar;et - e t a era e 0ar;et /ear $o t/ear per o6 18 Septe$ber +"tober ,o e$ber De"e$ber a uar/ Februar/ 0ar" Apr l 0a/ u e ul/ Au ust

Dollars per bus el$%1 3-0a/-12 0;t. t.5 %-/ear a . 2&&*-2&11 $;t. /r. &.3% &.'3 &.'2 &.4 &.*% &.3 &.43 &.33 &.33 &.34 &.3% &.3&

1&-0a/-12 &.33 &.'1 &.'& &.4* &.*2 &.3' &.41 &.32 &.32 &.33 &.34 &.21*-0a/-12 &.32 &.% &.% &.4' &.*& &.3% &.4& &.31 &.31 &.32 &.33 &.224-0a/-12 &.33 &.'& &.% &.4* &.*1 &.3' &.41 &.32 &.31 &.33 &.34 &.231-0a/-12 &.3% &.'4 &.'2 &.4 &.*% &.3 &.43 &.34 &.33 &.34 &.3% &.3&

*- u -12 &.34 &.'2 &.'& &.4 &.*3 &.3* &.42 &.33 &.32 &.33 &.3% &.3&14- u -12 &.33 &.'& &.% &.4* &.*2 &.3' &.41 &.32 &.31 &.33 &.34 &.3&21- u -12 &.3% &.'3 &.'2 &.4 &.*% &.3 &.43 &.33 &.33 &.34 &.3' &.312 - u -12 &.33 &.'1 &.% &.4* &.*2 &.3' &.41 &.32 &.32 &.33 &.34 &.3&

%- ul-12 &.31 &.%' &.%% &.44 &.'* &.34 &.3 &.3& &.3& &.31 &.33 &.212- ul-12 &.32 &.% &.% &.4' &.*& &.3% &.4& &.31 &.31 &.32 &.34 &.21 - ul-12 &.31 &.%' &.%% &.44 &.'* &.34 &.3 &.3& &.2 &.3& &.32 &.22'- ul-12 &.2 &.%3 &.%2 &.42 &.'4 &.32 &.3* &.2 &.2 &.2 &.31 &.2*2-Au -12 &.2 &.%2 &.%1 &.41 &.'2 &.31 &.3' &.2 &.2* &.2 &.3& &.2'

-Au -12 &.2 &.%1 &.%& &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3% &.2* &.2* &.2 &.3& &.2'

1'-Au -12 &.2 &.%3 &.%2 &.41 &.'3 &.32 &.3' &.2 &.2 &.2 &.31 &.2*23-Au -12 &.2 &.%2 &.%1 &.41 &.'2 &.31 &.3% &.2 &.2* &.2 &.3& &.2'3&-Au -12 &.2 &.%4 &.%3 &.42 &.'4 &.32 &.3* &.2 &.2 &.2 &.31 &.2*

'-Sep-12 &.2 &.%1 &.%& &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3% &.2* &.2* &.2 &.3& &.2'13-Sep-12 &.2 &.%2 &.%1 &.41 &.'2 &.31 &.3' &.2 &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2'2&-Sep-12 &.2 &.%1 &.%& &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3% &.2* &.2* &.2 &.3& &.2'2*-Sep-12 &.2 &.%1 &.%& &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3% &.2* &.2* &.2 &.3& &.2'

4-+"t-12 0;t. t.5 %-/ear a . 2&& -2&12 $;t. /r. &.3 &.4 &.4' &.3 &.% &.2 &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.211-+"t-12 &.3 &.4 &.4' &.3 &.% &.2 &.3' &.2' &.2 &.2 &.32 &.21 -+"t-12 &.3 &.%& &.4* &.3 &.% &.2 &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.22%-+"t-12 &.3 &.4 &.4' &.3 &.% &.2 &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.2

1-,o -12 &.3 &.%' &.4% &.3* &.%' &.2 &.3% &.2' &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*-,o -12 &.4& &.%' &.44 &.3' &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*

1%-,o -12 &.4& &.%' &.4% &.3' &.%' &.2 &.3% &.2' &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*22-,o -12 &.4& &.%' &.44 &.3' &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.31 &.2*

2 -,o -12 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3% &.%4 &.2* &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.31 &.2*'-De"-12 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3' &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*

13-De"-12 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3' &.%' &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*2&-De"-12 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3' &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.31 &.2*

2*-De"-12 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3% &.%4 &.2* &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.31 &.2*$%1& 3- a -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3 &.%4 &.2* &.33 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.3& &.2*

1&- a -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3 &.%2 &.2' &.32 &.24 &.2% &.2' &.3& &.2'1*- a -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3 &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.3& &.2*24- a -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3 &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.3& &.2*31- a -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.3 &.%% &.2 &.34 &.2% &.2' &.2* &.3& &.2**-Feb-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'& &.2 &.3% &.2' &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*

14-Feb-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'& &.2 &.3% &.2' &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*21-Feb-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'& &.2 &.3' &.2* &.2 &.2 &.32 &.22 -Feb-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'& &.2 &.3% &.2' &.2* &.2 &.31 &.2*

*-0ar-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.33 &.2

14-0ar-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3 &.2 &.2 &.3& &.33 &.221-0ar-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3* &.2 &.2 &.3& &.33 &.22 -0ar-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.31 &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.33 &.2

4-Apr-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.34 &.3&11-Apr-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.34 &.3&1 -Apr-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.34 &.3&2%-Apr-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.34 &.3&2-0a/-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.3& &.31 &.34 &.3&

-0a/-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.31 &.32 &.3% &.311'-0a/-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.3& &.33 &.223-0a/-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.32 &.23&-0a/-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.32 &.2

'- u -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.3& &.2*13- u -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.3& &.2'2&- u -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.3& &.2*2*- u -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.3& &.2'

4- ul-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.2 &.2411- ul-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.2' &.231 - ul-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.2' &.232%- ul-13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.2% &.221-Au -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2* &.2% &.21

-Au -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.2% &.221%-Au -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.2% &.2222-Au -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.2% &.222 -Au -13 &.4& &.% &.4 &.4& &.'1 &.3& &.3 &.2 &.2 &.2 &.2% &.22


Tabl e . Fu tures forecast of season-average price received )S3P* and impli ed counter-cyclical payment rate by /ee#ly forecast period" mar#eting year $%1 '1&Futures SA! ore"ast ?ASDE release 6ate CC! tr er pr "e

Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el Dollars per bus el$%1 2-0a/-13 %.2 4.*& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

-0a/-13 %.12 4.*& 1&-0a/-13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1'-0a/-13 4. ' 4.*& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&23-0a/-13 %.&* 4.*& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&3&-0a/-13 %.33 4.*& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

'- u -13 %.2& 4.*& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&13- u -13 %.& 4. & 12- u -13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2&- u -13 %.32 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2*- u -13 %.1& 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

4- ul-13 4.** 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&11- ul-13 %.&1 4. & 11- ul-13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1 - ul-13 4.*% 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2%- ul-13 4.%3 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1-Au -13 4.41 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

-Au -13 4.3% 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1%-Au -13 4.4* 4. & 12-Au -13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&22-Au -13 4.3 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2 -Au -13 4.%' 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

%-Sep-13 4.3' 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&12-Sep-13 4.41 4. & 12-Sep-13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1 -Sep-13 4.34 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2'-Sep-13 4.32 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

3-+"t-13 4.3 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

Agricul tural Prices 28

28 Agricultural Prices or a / e $o t (e. .< Septe$ber) l sts pr "es re"e e6 t at $o t (Septe$ber). : e last pr "e l ste6 t e ro s a $ 6-$o t pr "e a 6 al l ot ers are ull $o t pr "es.

Cale 6ar/ear

Fore"ast per o618

0 6po t o t e?ASDE SA!

pro e"t o

A"tual SA! (a a lable +"tober 2&14)

,at o ala era e

loa ra te

FuturesCC! rate

ore"ast

?ASDECC! rate

pro e"t o


7/20

1&-+"t-13 4.3 4. & 11-+"t-13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1*-+"t-13 4.42 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&24-+"t-13 4.4& 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&31-+"t-13 4.3' 4. & 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

*-,o -13 4.3& 4.%& -,o -13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&14-,o -13 4.3% 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&21-,o -13 4.2 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2 -,o -13 4.33 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

%-De"-13 4.3 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&12-De"-13 4.3 4.4& 1&-De"-13 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1 -De"-13 4.3% 4.4& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

2'-De"-13 4.33 4.4& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&$%1& 2- a -14 4.34 4.4& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

- a -14 4.2 4.4& 1&- a -14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1'- a -14 4.3* 4.4& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&23- a -14 4.3* 4.4& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&3&- a -14 4.3 4.4& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&'-Feb-14 4.4 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

13-Feb-14 4.4 4.%& 1&-Feb-14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2&-Feb-14 4.%% 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2*-Feb-14 4.%1 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

'-0ar-14 4.'* 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&13-0ar-14 4.'% 4.%& 1&-0ar-14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2&-0ar-14 4.'3 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2*-0ar-14 4.' 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

3-Apr-14 4.' 4.%& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

1&-Apr-14 4.*& 4.'& -Apr-14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1*-Apr-14 4.' 4.'& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&24-Apr-14 4.*& 4.'& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1-0a/-14 4.' 4.'& 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

-0a/-14 4.*1 4.'% -0a/-14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1%-0a/-14 4.'3 4.'% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&22-0a/-14 4.'1 4.'% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2 -0a/-14 4.% 4.'% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

%- u -14 4.%' 4.'% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&12- u -14 4.%% 4.%% 11- u -14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1 - u -14 4.%' 4.%% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2'- u -14 4.%% 4.%% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

3- ul-14 4.%1 4.%% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1&- ul-14 4.4 4.4% 11- ul-14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&1*- ul-14 4.4 4.4% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

24- ul-14 4.4% 4.4% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&31- ul-14 4.4% 4.4% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&*-Au -14 4.4' 4.4% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&

14-Au -14 4.4* 4.4% 12-Au -14 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&21-Au -14 4.4* 4.4% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&&2 -Au -14 4.4' 4.4% 2.3% 1. % &.&& &.&& E 6 o Data

#,A 5 ,ot a a lable.18 Date o " t e settle$e t pr "es are obser e6.


8/20

0 'ta6le -(

y the user.

y the user.

n E by the user.

recast, a summation of monthly price weights found in column '.

ment rate.


9/20

-&.3 3.1 3.1 .& &.2 '-&.3 3.2& 3.2& 14.1 &.4%1-&.32 3.2' 3.2' *.4 &.242-&.3 3.2 3.2 .2 &.2*&-&.23 3.44 3.44 '.1 &.21&-&.1& 3.'4 3.'4 %.2 &.1 1

-&.&3 3.*1 3.*1 %. &.21&.14 3. % 3. % '.4 &.2%3&.&' 3. 3. %. &.223

Su$ o e ts 5 1&&.&

e re"e e6 ( e te6 a era e) (78bu.) 5 3.33

3.*& 3.33 1. %

6< Septe$ber. Futures pr "e =uotat o ro$ t e C0E Group8C "a o Boar6 o :ra6e settle$e t pr "es.at 6ate.

" t e "o tra"t e@p res< utures pr "es are obta e6 ro$ t e e@t earb/ "o tra"t.a lable. : e last pr "e l ste6 t s "olu$ represe ts t e $ 6-$o t pr "e< ot er pr "es re le"t t e ull $o t pr "e.

+(

n B by the user.

5 e ere "e !r "e (78bu.) $ us t e 9ar er o (0ar;et /ear at o al ar$ pr "e (78bu.) or ,at o al $ar;et ass sta "e loa rate (78bu. ))

gust + - . Eowever, the ability to change these forecasts remains in

t forecast period. Thereafter, marketing year + -65- forecasts areage4.

nt price from each trading contract into table +, column B. Thesein column 3.

n column 8 by adding a moving /*year average basis found in columnumn ) reflects, when available, actual monthly farm prices received


10/20

& by the user.

umn E by the user.

d forecast, a summation of monthly price weights found in column '.

ate 0target price less the effective price4.

+ *Aug*-season-average price received and CCP rate" mar#eting year $%1 '1&

Step # 2 Step # 3 Step # 4(Col. D) (Col. E) (Col. F) (Col. G) (Col. H) (Col. I)

-----------Dollars per bus el---------------------------------------------------------------------- !er"e t Dollars per bus el-&.%1 /. %.4& *.3 &.3 '-&.4' .@- 4.'1 12.% &.%*

-&.31 .6/ 4.3% 11.3 &.4 3-&.33 . - 4.41 .& &.3 *-&.32 . + 4.42 13. &.'1&-&.2% .6/ 4.3% '. &.2-&.31 ./- 4.%1 .3 &.3*'

-&.1* .>- 4.*1 '.& &.2 2-&.12 .>- 4.*1 '.1 &.2 *

-&.&' . < 4.4 '.2 &.2 &&.1% 3.*' 6. 3. & '.' &.2%1&.&* 3.' 3.' %. &.21*

Su$ o e ts 5 1&&.&

e re"e e6 ( e te6 a era e) (78bu.) 5 4.4'

farmers into column ), if available. 'nitially, this is a mid*month price.

und in column ', and is a product of columns D and E. 3olumn Deceived or futures prices. 3olumn E reflects each monthCs /*year*

Bas s (%-/ear .S.a era e)

0o t l/ ar$pr "e ore"ast

A"tual $o t l/ar$ pr "e< a a lable 48



a era e)

0o t l/ pr "ee t


11/20

&.&& 5 :ar et pr "e (78bu.) 2.'3 - E e"t e pr "e (78bu.) 4.*4

4.*4 5 D re"t pa/$e t rate t e lar er o ,at o al a era e pr "e or ,at o al a era e&.2 re"e e6 or $;t /r. loa rate

4.4' 1. %

l/< a 6 Septe$ber. Futures pr "e =uotat o ro$ t e C0E Group8C "a o Boar6 o :ra6e settle$e t pr "es.or t at 6ate. 6ur " t e "o tra"t e@p res< utures pr "es are obta e6 ro$ t e e@t earb/ "o tra"t.ot a a lable. : e last pr "e l ste6 t s "olu$ represe ts t e $ 6-$o t pr "e< ot er pr "es re le"t t e ull $o t pr "e.


12/20

with the futures forecast model.

the 8I% )arm and 3ommodity 1olicy briefing room:

is the monthly $.%. average price received by producers 0as published%erviceK see the &ata and %ource section of the &ocumentationhly average of the nearby futures settlement price observed for a giventhe next nearby contract is used instead of the current nearby

sis is the difference between the %eptember farm price received byge settlement price of the nearby &ecember futures corn contract. 'nthe &ecember farm price received by $.%. corn producers and

arch futures contract, which is the next nearby contract for corn. 'nsis is used to compute the forecast. The /*year average is updated

unter*cyclical payment 03314 rate is e7ual to the target price less thethe direct payment rate plus the higher of the season*average pricemore information on counter*cyclical payments, see:

-+5http:55ers.usda.gov5)armBill5+ 5Titles5Title'commodities.htmd counter*cyclical payment rate are initially unknown, but the values and direct payment are predetermined. #nce the season*average

an be determined, as can the counter*cyclical payment rate. )or

pics5farm*economy5farm*commodity*policy5glossary.aspx

v5topics5farm*economy5farm*commodity*policy.aspxsee:w.ers.usda.gov5media56/@


13/20

corn futures data from the 3!8 Droup, see:

es from the 3!8 Droup(s contract for Jo. + yellow corn are used forct is used except when the marketing year month coincides with themple, the &ecember contract prices are used for the months of!arch contract prices are used for the months of &ecember, Lanuary,rksheet for information on which futures contracts cover which3!8 Droup, see:

om5trading5commodities5grain*and*oilseed5corn.html

m5market*data5datamine*historical*data5datamine.html

represents the proportion of the marketing yearCs crop that is marketedrketing year, +/ percent of the crop may be sold in #ctober. The

keting year would be .+/. !arketing weights are used to construct aa /*year moving average of these weights is used to compute the

lly.

month period starting with the month when the harvest of a specificyear runs from %eptember to August.

The difference between the reference price and the higher of theal marketing assistance loan rate. )or background information see:*of*+ - *highlights*and*implications5crop*commodity*programs.aspx

eference priceM established by the Agricultural Act of + - 0The + -mation:5pkg5B'22%*--6hr+@ +enr5pdf5B'22%*--6hr+@ +enr.pdf

nthly or season farm price received is determined by $%&A(s Jationalrough sampling, JA%% collects data on sales from producers to firstales by 7uantity sold. This price represents all grades and 7ualities.

nnually.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/corn.htmlhttp://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/datamine.htmlhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/agricultural-act-of-2014-highlights-and-implications/crop-commodity-programs.aspxhttp://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-113hr2642enr/pdf/BILLS-113hr2642enr.pdfhttp://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-113hr2642enr/pdf/BILLS-113hr2642enr.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/agricultural-act-of-2014-highlights-and-implications/crop-commodity-programs.aspxhttp://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/datamine.htmlhttp://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html


14/20

oup, see:

ce. )utures prices reflect both expected supply

es, farm prices received, basis values 0farm priceon on basis, futures prices, and marketing

ed monthly farm price forecasts for the marketingrksheet.

d throughout the marketing year. )or more

y farm price forecast, which is replaced with the&A(s Jational Agricultural %tatistics %ervice. )or

ore information on marketing weights, see the

ar. &aily settlement prices by contract for cornor current corn futures data from the 3!8

s5grain*and*oilseed5corn.html

e*historical*data5datamine.html

y farm prices received for corn are obtained froms %ervice. )or the publication, see:

ument'nfo.do document'&;- +ument'nfo.do document'&;- 6
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/corn.htmlhttp://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/datamine.htmlhttp://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1002http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1003http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1003http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1002http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/datamine.htmlhttp://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html


15/20

mple tables - and + below to follow each step.4

tion of monthly price weights found in column '.

d less monthly average futures settlement prices

month are derived from data published in $%&A(sissue of Agricultural Prices thereafter. )or the most

ment'nfo.do document'&;- +

rice pro9ections from $%&A are from orld%&ACs orld Agricultural #utlook Board. )or the

ment'nfo.do document'&;--- 4.*1 '.& &.2 2-&.12 .>- 4.*1 '.1 &.2 *

-&.&' . < 4.4 '.2 &.2 &&.1% 3.*' 6. 3. & '.' &.2%1&.&* 3.' 3.' %. &.21*

Su$ o e ts 5 1&&.&

e6 ( e te6 a era e) (78bu.) 5 4.4'

:ar et pr "e (78bu.) 2.'3 - E e"t e pr "e (78bu.) 4.*4

5 D re"t pa/$e t rate t e lar er o ,at o al a era e pr "e or ,at o al a era e&.2 re"e e6 or $;t /r. loa rate

4.4' 1. %

ber. Futures pr "e =uotat o ro$ t e C0E Group8C "a o Boar6 o :ra6e settle$e t pr "es.

" t e "o tra"t e@p res< utures pr "es are obta e6 ro$ t e e@t earb/ "o tra"t.. : e last pr "e l ste6 t s "olu$ represe ts t e $ 6-$o t pr "e< ot er pr "es re le"t t e ull $o t pr "e.

s (%-/ear .S.a era e)

0o t l/ ar$pr "e ore"ast

A"tual $o t l/ar$ pr "e<

a a lable 48



a era e)

0o t l/ pr "ee t


18/20

DataThis worksheet provides current and historical data needed to produce the marketing year forecasts:

9 Monthl) 6asis #alues 6) !ar3etin$ )ear

9 Polic) %ara !eters""tar$et %rice& national a#era$e loa n rate& counter"c)clical %a )!ent tri$$er %rice& a n irect %a)!ent rate 6) !ar3etin$ )ear

. "

/ear

- - . . . . .- a/- . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- a/- . . . . .

- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- u - . . . . .- u- . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .

24- ul-14 3.*& 3. 1 3. & 3. * 4.&4- - . . . . .

- - . . . . .- u - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .

- ep- . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- " - . . . . . o a a- -- " -- " -- -- -- o -- -- e"-- -- -- e"-- -- -- a -- -- -- -- -- e -- -- -- ar-- ar-- -- pr-- -- -

- -- -

- a/-- -- -- a/-- -- -- u -- -- -- -- u-- u-- -

- -13-Au -1%- -- -

ee / ore"as re e" s u ures se e$e pr"e o a a e.

. "

/ear

- - . . . . .- a/- . . . . .- - . . . . .- a/- . . . . .- a/- . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- u - . . . . .- - . . . . .- u- . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- u- . . . . .

- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- u - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .

- ep- . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- " - . . . . .- " - . . . . .- - . . . . .- " - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- - . . . . .- e"- . . . .- - . . . .- - . . . .- e"- . . . .- - . . . .- - . . . .- a - . . . .- - . . . .- - . . . .- - . . . .- e - . . . .- e - . . . .- - . . . .- - . . .

13-0ar-14 4. % 4. 4. '- - . . .- - . . .- pr- . . .- - . . .- - . . .- - . . .

- - . .- a/- . .- - . .- - . .- a/- . .- - . .- u - . .- u - . .- - . .- - .- u- .- - .- u- .- - .

- - .- u - .- - .- - .

ee / ore"as re e" s u ures se e$e pr"e o a a e.

a e . verage mont y sett ement pr ce or t e near y corn utures contract y mar et ng year mont " mar et ng years -

ar e ar e /ear $o/ear ep e$ er " o er o e$ er e"e$ er a uar/ e ruar/ ar" pr a/ u e u/ u us

- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 4- % 2.2& 2.1' 2.& 2.2 2.32 2.33 2.4' 2.4 2.'1 2.*3 2. 2. 3- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .

- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . .- .

Tabl e &. bserved mont,l y farm price received by /ee# for .S. corn producers" mar#eting year $%1&'1( )from mont, ly 3gricul tural Prices report*

/ear per o ep e$ er " o er o e$ er e"e$ er a uar/ e ruar/ ar" pr a/ u e u/ u us

- -- a/-

- -- -- a/-- u -- -- u -- -3- ul-14- -- -- u-- -

- -- u -- -- -- ep-- -- ep-- -- " - - ep- .- " - . o a a- -- -

3&-+"t-14- -- -- o -- -- e"-- -

- -- e"-- -- -- a -- -- a -- e -- -- e -- e -- -- ar-- -- -

- pr-- -- -- pr-- -

- a/-- -- -- a/-- -- -- u -- u -- -- u-- -

2ee3l) an !o nthl) futures %rices of the near6) contrac t 6) !ar3etin$ )earTable -. eekly 0Thursday4 settlement price of the nearby corn futu res con tract, marketing year + - 5- /Table +. eekly 0Thursday4 settlement price of the nearby corn futu res con tract, marketing year + -65-Table 6. Average monthly settlement price for the nearby corn futures contract by marketing year mon th, marketing years - /*+ -

Monthl) an annual far! %rices rec ei#e 6) !ar3etin$ )e arTable . #bserved month ly farm price received by week for $.%. corn prod ucers, marketing y ear + - 5-/ 0from monthly Agricultural 1rices report4Table /. #bserved month ly farm price received by week for $.%. corn p rodu cers, marketing year + - 65- 0from monthly Agricultural 1rices report4

Table @. !onth ly and annu al price received by $.%. corn produ cers, marketing years - /*+ -

Table >. Average monthly basis 0farm price received less futu res4 for $.%. corn, marketing years - /*+ -Table . /*year average mon thly basis 0farm price received less futures4, for $.%. corn, marketing y ears -< *+ -/

! onthl) !ar3et in$ 4e i$hts 6) !ar 3etin$ )earTable / *+ -

9 Monthl) season"a#era$e %rice rece i#e %ro;ection f ro! World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates '2ASD E(Table --. A%&8 mon thly pro9ection o f the $.%. farm price received for corn by forecast period, marketi ng year + - 5-/Table -+. A%&8 mon thly pro9ection o f the $.%. farm price received for corn by forecast period, marketi ng year + -65-

Table -6. 1olicy p arameters**target price, natio nal average loan rate, direct payment rate, cou nter*cyclical pay ment trigg er price,

grcu tura r ces


19/20

- -- -

- u -- u -- -- u -

.

Tabl e (. b served mont,l y farm price received by /ee# for .S. corn produ cers" mar#eting year $%1 '1& )from mont, ly 3gricul tural Prices report*

/ear per o ep e$ er " o er o e$ er e"e$ er a uar/ e ruar/ ar" pr a/ u e u / u us

- a/-- -- a/-- a/-- -- -

13- u -13- -- -- u-- -- u-

- -- -- u -- -- -- u -- -- ep-- ep-- -- " - - ep- .- " - .- - .- " - .- - - - . .

- - . .- o - . .- - . .- - - - . . .- e"- . . .- - . . .- e"- . . .- - . . .- - - - . . . .- a - . . . .- - . . . .- - . . . .- a - . . . .- e - - a - . . . . .- - . . . . .- e - . . . . .- - . . . . .

'-0ar-14 2 -Feb-14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.4*- - . . . . . .- - . . . . . .- ar- . . . . . .- - - - . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . .- pr- . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . .

- - - - . . . . . . . .- a/- . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . .- a/- . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . .- u - - a/- . . . . . . . . .- u - . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . .3- ul-14 2*- u -14 %.4& 4.'1 4.3% 4.41 4.42 4.3% 4.%1 4.*1 4.*1 4.3*

- - . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . .- u- . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . .

- u - - u- . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . .- u - . . . . . . . . . . . o a a

.

a e . on y an annua p rce rece ve y . . co rn p ro ucers" mar e ng years -

/ear ep e$ er " o er o e$ er e"e$ er a uar/ e ruar/ ar" pr a/ u e u / u us uao ars per us e

- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 %- ' 2.' 2.* 2. * 3.&* 3.& 3.3* 3.%1 3. % 4.14 4.2& 4.43 4.3& 3.24- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

- . . . . . . . . . . . . .2&12-13 '. '.* *.&1 '. * '. ' *.&4 *.13 '. * '. * '. * '.* '.21 '.- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- .

a e . verage mon y as s arm pr ce rece ve ess u ures or . . corn" mar e ng years -

/ear ep e$ er " o er o e$ er e"e$ er a uar/ e ruar/ ar" pr a/ u e u / u us

- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- . - . - . - . - . - . - . . . . . .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . .- . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- . . - . - . . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . . - . - . - . . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- . . . - . . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . . . . . . . - . - . - . . .- . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . . . - . - .- - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . . . . .- . . . . . - . - . - . - . . . .- - .

. - " . . " -ar e ar e /ear $o

-

- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .

1 - 1 3- * -&.12 -&.23 -&.23 -&.1 -&.13 -&.11 -&.14 -&.14 -&.13 -&.1 &.&1 &.&1- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

2&&%-&' 2&&&-&4 -&.1 -&.1% -&.14 -&.13 -&.11 -&.12 -&.1% -&.13 -&.13 -&.13 -&.12 -&.13- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- - - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . .- - - .

a e . on y mar e ng /e g s or . . corn" mar e ng years -

/ear ep e$ er " o er o e$ er e"e$ er a uar/ e ruar/ ar" pr a/ u e u / u us u$ o e s

- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 - &.&*% &.13 &.1&3 &.&*2 &.12* &.&*' &.& & &.&4 &.&43 &.&% &.&*4 &.& % 1.&&- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2&13-14 &.&%1 &.11' &.123 &.& &.142 &.& 4 &.& 1 &.&*3 &.&4 &.&%* &.&% &.&% .

a e . -year average mon y mar e ng / eg s o r . . co rn" mar e ng years - -

S are o total or t e $ar;et /ear - - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .

- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 '- * 1 1- % &.&*' &.13* &.12% &.& 4 &.1%1 &.&* &.&* &.&%2 &.&4 &.&%& &.&%* &.&%4 1.&&- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .- - . . . . . . . . . . . . .

gr cu ura rces or a / e $o e. .< ep e$ er s s pr "es re"e e a $o ep e$ er . e as p r"e se e ro s a $ -$o pr"e a a o e rs a re u $o pr"es.

grcu ura r ces

gr cu ura rces or a / e $o e. .< ep e$ er s s pr "es re"e e a $o ep e$ er . e as p r"e se e ro s a $ -$o pr"e a a o e rs a re u $o pr"es.

Table 11. +3SD; mon t,ly pro


20/20

- - .- a/- . - a/-- a/- .- - .- a/- .- - .- - . - -- u - .- - .- u - .- - . - -- - .- u - .- - .

- - .- u - . - u -- - .- - .- ep- .- ep- . - ep-- ep- .- - .- - .-+"t-14 3.4& 1&-+"t-14- -

- -- " -- -- -- o -- -- e"-- -- -- e"-- -- a -- a -- -- -

%-Feb-1%- -- e -- -- -- ar-- -- -- pr-- -- -- pr-- -

- a/-- -- -- a/-- u -- -- u -- -- -- u -- -- u -- -

- -- u -- -- -

ae ar ee / ore"as

o ars per us e- a/- .- - . - -- - .

23-0a/-13 4.*&- - .- u - .- - . - -- - .- u - .- - .- - . - -- u - .- - .

- - .- u - .- - . - -- u - .- - .- - .- ep- . - ep-- ep- .

- - .- " - .- - . - -- - .- " - .- - .- o - . - o -- - .- - .- o - .- - .- - . - -- e"- .- - .- - .

- a - . - a -- a - .- a - .- - .- - .

13-F

fut mod corn

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