fungsi produksi cobb-douglas pada industri semen di indonesia

E k o n o m i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s i a V o l . 3 8 , N o . 3 , 1 9 9 0

Fungsi Produksi Cobb-Douglas Pada industri Semen di Indonesia

Alfian Lains

Abstract

This study proves the vaiidity of Cobb-Dougias production function with constant return to scaie and Hicks neutrai technoiogicai change at cement industry in Indonesia during 1970 - 86. The output elasticities of capital and labor are not the same but the first is only about 116 % of the second. Therefore the cement industry in Indonesia has been developed with capital intensive and labor augmenting technical progress. However, actual rate of return on capital is much more greater than its marginal product, reflecting the higher cost of expansion and development of cement industry in Indonesia from social welfare point of view. On the other hand, actual return to labor is lower than the value of its marginal product but increasing every year during the period being studies. Put it differently, the cement industry in Indonesia has not benefited the labor cost comparative advantage which should be enjoyed in the labor market with excess supply of labor. Therefore, the prospect of export of cement is not very good from the Hecksher-Ohiin theory point of view. However. Indonesia should increase the export of cement in order to lower the fixed cost of production per unit through optimaiity the utilized capacity.

243

Lains

I . Pendahuluan

G a r i s - G a r i s B e s a r H a l u a n N e g a r a R e p u b l i k I n d o n e s i a m e n e t a p k a n b a h w a p e m b a n g u n a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g d i I n d o n e s i a h a r u s m a m p u m e m b a w a p e r u -b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n f u n d a m e n t a l d a l a m s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i n a s i o n a l s e h i n g g a p r o d u k s i n a s i o n a l y a n g b e r a s a l d a r i s e k t o r - s e k t o r d i l u a r p e r t a n i a n a k a n m e r u p a k a n b a g i a n y a n g s e m a k i n b e s a r s e h i n g g a i n d u s t r i a k a n m e n j a d i t u l a n g p u n g g u n g e k o n o m i . D e m i k i a n l a h p e m e r i n t a h O r d e B a r u t e l a h m e n i n g k a t k a n p r o s e s i n d u s t r i a h s a s i d i I n d o n e s i a s e m e n j a k a k h i r d a s a w a r s a e n a m p u l u h a n .

S a l a h s a t u i n d u s t r i y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n a d a l a h i n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g l o k a s i p a b r i k - p a b r i k n y a t e r p e n c a r p a d a b e b e r a p a p r o p i n s i . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 7 0 h a n y a t e r d a p a t 3 p a b r i k s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i p a b r i k s e m e n P a d a n g , s e m e n G r e s i k d a n s e m e n T o n a s a d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g s e b e s a r 8 4 0 r i b u t o n . K a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g t e r s e b u t m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 9 5 0 r i b u t o n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 7 3 s e t e l a h b e r o p e r a s i n y a p a b r i k s e m e n I n d a r u n g ( P a d a n g ) k e d u a . D u a t a h u n k e m u d i a n d i d i r i k a n p u l a p a b r i k s e m e n C i b i n o n g d a n D I C E (Distinct Indonesian Cement Enterprise) y a n g m a s i n g - m a s i n g n y a b e r k a p a s i t a s 6 0 0 r i b u d a n 5 0 0 r i b u t o n s e h i n g g a k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 2 , 0 5 j u t a t o n . S e l a n j u t n y a p a b r i k s e m e n D I C E d i p e r l u a s d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s t a m b a b a n s e b e s a r 5 0 0 r i b u t o n d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 7 6 s e d a n g k a n p a b r i k s e m e n N u s a n t a r a s e l e s a i p u l a d i d i r i k a n d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 7 7 d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g s e b e s a r 6 0 0 r i b u t o n . S e m e n t a r a i t u , p a b r i k s e m e n C i b i n o n g d i p e r l u a s d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s s e b e s a r 6 0 0 r i b u t o n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 7 8 . S e t a h u n k e m u d i a n p a b r i k s e m e n D I C E d a n N u s a n t a r a j u g a m e n g a l a m i p e r l u a s a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s t a m b a l i a n s e b e s a r s a t u j u t a d a n 1 5 0 r i b u t o n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t e l a h m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 7 j u t a t o n p a d a 1 9 7 9 . P e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a b e r l a n g s u n g t e r u s p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 , 1 9 8 3 , d a n 1 9 8 5 seh i n g g a a k h i r n y a k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g n y a m e n c a p a i 1 7 , 4 1 j u t a t o n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 . ^ . ' •

A k i b a t l o g i s d a r i p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n t e r s e b u t a d a l a h m e n i n g k a t n y a p r o d u k s i s e m e n d a l a m n e g e r i d a r i 0 , 5 3 2 j u t a t o n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 7 0 m e n j a d i 1 , 0 7 5 j u t a t o n d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 7 5 d a n t e r u s m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 5 , 2 5 j u t a t o n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 , d a n 1 0 , 4 8 j u t a t o n d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 5 s e r t a 1 1 , 0 9 j u t a t o n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 6 .

D e n g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p r o d u k s i s e m e n s e b e s a r 1 9 , 6 % r a t a - r a t a p e r -t a h u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6 b e r a r t i i n d u s t r i s e m e n t e l a h m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e n c a p a i a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o -

D a t a i n i berasal d a r i Assos ias i S e m e n I n d o n e s i a ( A S I ) .

2 4 4

Fungsi Produksi Cobb-Douglas

n o m i n a s i o n a l y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i . T e t a p i G a r i s - G a r i s B e s a r H a l u a n N e g a r a j u g a m e n g a m a n a t k a n b a h w a p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n N a s i o n a l h a r u s m e n j a m i n p e m b a g i a n p e n d a p a t a n y a n g m e r a t a d a n m e m p e r c e p a t p e r t u m b u h a n l a p a n g a n k e r j a . K e b i j a k s a n a a n t e r s e b u t l e b i h d i p e r t e g a s l a g i o l e h T r i l o g i P e m b a n g u n a n y a n g d i j a d i k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n u t a m a p e l a k s a n a a n p e m b a n g u n a n d i I n d o n e s i a . K e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m e r a t a a n t e l a h d i j a d i k a n e l e m e n p e r t a m a d a r i T r i l o g i P e m b a n g u n a n s e m e n j a k P e l i t a I I I y a n g k e m u d i a n d i s u s u l o l e h k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e n c a p a i a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i N a s i o n a l y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i .

A p a k a h p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a s e j a l a n d e n g a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g d i t e t a p k a n o l e h G a r i s - G a r i s B e s a r H a l u a n N e g a r a a t a u k a h p e r l u a s a n t e r s e b u t m e n y i m p a n g d a r i k e b i j a k s a n a a n T r i l o g i P e m b a n g u n a n y a n g k i t a a n u t ? S e p a n j a n g p e n g e t a h u a n p e n u l i s b e l u m a d a s t u d i y a n g m e n g k a j i m a s a l a h t e r s e b u t d a n p e n e l i t i a n i n i a k a n m e n c o b a m e m b e r i k a n j a w a b a n t e r h a d a p p e r t a n y a a n d i a t a s .

P a d a u m u m n y a o r a n g b e r p e n d a p a t b a h w a p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i b e r -s k a l a b e s a r l e b i h c e n d r u n g b e r s i f a t i n t e n s i f k a p i t a l y a n g b u k a n p a d a t k a r y a . T e t a p i k e s i m p u l a n t e r s e b u t t i d a k l a h s e l a l u b e n a r d i l i h a t d a r i s u d u t t e o r i . P e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g b e r s k a l a b e s a r t e l a h d i l a k u k a n d i I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n m e m a n f a a t k a n m e s i n - m e s i n y a n g l e b i h m o d e r n d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n m e s i n - m e s i n s e b e l u m n y a . T e n t u s a j a p e m b e l i a n m e s i n -m e s i n b a r u t e r s e b u t m e m e r l u k a n k a p i t a l y a n g r e l a t i f b e s a r j u m l a b n y a . T e t a p i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t i d a k l a h h a r u s s e l a l u d i a r t i k a n s e b a g a i t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a {labor saving) s e h i n g g a p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g t e r j a d i d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n s e b a g a i s e s u a t u y a n g h a n y a b e r s i f a t k a p i t a l i n t e n s i f . D e n g a n l a i n p e r k a t a a n , t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n m u n g k i n t i d a k n e t r a l d a l a m p e n g e r t i a n S o l o w {Solow neutral technical progress) a t a u H a r r o d {Harrod neutrai technical progress) t e t a p i d a p a t b e r a r t i n e t r a l d a r i s u d u t p a n d a n g a n H i c k s {Hicks neutrai technical progress) s e h i n g g a d a p a t m e m p e r b e s a r k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d i s a m p i n g m e m p e r b a n y a k p e m a -k a i a n k a p i t a l {labor and capital augmenting).

T u j u a n u t a m a p e n e l i t i a n i n i a d a l a h u n t u k m e n g e t a h u i a p a k a h k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e l e k a t p a d a p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a b e r s i f a t n e t r a l d a l a m p e n g e r t i a n S o l o w a t a u H a r r o d a t a u k a h n e t r a l d a r i s u d u t p a n d a n g a n H i c k s . U n t u k m e n c a p a i t u j u a n t e r s e b u t s t u d i i n i a k a n m e n c o b a m e n a k s i r f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s u n t u k i n d u s t r i s e r n e n d i I n d o n e s i a .

S t u d i i n i a k a n m e n c o b a m e m b u k t i k a n h i p o t e s a b a h w a : {a) F u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s a d a l a h b e r l a k u s a h (valid) p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i .

245

Lains

I n d o n e s i a , d a n (b) K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h b e r s i f a t n e t r a l d a l a m p e n g e r t i a n H i c k s .

D e n g a n d i k e t a h u i n y a s i f a t t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e l e k a t p a d a p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a , p e m b u a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n a k a n d a p a t m e n g a m b i l k e s i m p u l a n a p a k a h p o l a p e n e r a p a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d a p a t a t a u t i d a k d i t i r u d a l a m m e l a k u k a n e k s p a n s i i n d u s t r i l a i n n y a . H a s i l s t u d i i n i m a m p u m e m b e r i k a n i n f o r m a s i k e p a d a p e m e r i n t a h a p a k a h p o l a i n v e s t a s i p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n p a n t a s d i t e r a p k a n d a l a m m e n g e m b a n g k a n i n d u s t r i l a i n t a n p a m e n g a b a i k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n T r i l o g i P e m b a n g u n a n .

I I . Kerangka Teori, Spesifikasi Variabel dan Metoda Estimasi

A . F u n g s i Produksi

M a s a l a h k u n c i y a n g b e r s i f a t e m p i r i s d a r i s t u d i i n i a d a l a h m e n y a n g k u t e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a . F u n g s i p r o d u k s i m e m p e r l i h a t k a n h u b u n g a n f u n g s i o n a l a n t a r a j u m l a h k e l u a r a n ( Q ) d e n g a n m a s u k a n v a r i a b e l ( X j , . . . , X^) p a d a u n i t w a k t u t e r t e n t u . H u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k

e = / ( X i , . . . , X ^ . ) , ( 1 )

K a r e n a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i s a n g a t d i t e n t u k a n o l e h t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i g u n a k a n (T) m a k a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 ) d a p a t d i u b a h m e n j a d i

( 2 = / ( X i , . . . , X ^ , D ( 2 )

V a r i a b e l T j u g a a k a n m e m p e r l i h a t k a n p e r u b a h a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m p r o s e s p r o d u k s i ( l i h a t S o l o w , 1 9 5 7 d a n G r i l i c h e s , 1 9 6 3 a ) .

F u n g s i p r o d u k s i d i a t a s d a p a t d i s p e s i f i k a s i k a n l e b i h l a n j u t d a l a m b e n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s d a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i b e r e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s i t u s i y a n g k o n s t a n {constant elasticity substitution- C F S ) ^ . F u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s m e r u p a k a n b e n t u k k h u s u s d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i p e r t a m a m e n g a n g g a p b a h w a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s i t u s i a n t a r a d u a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i a d a l a h s a m a d e n g a n s a t u s e d a n g k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i t e r a k h i r m e m u n g k i n k a n k i t a m e n d a p a t k a n a n g k a k o e t l s i e n t e r s e b u t y a n g b e r b e d a d a r i s a t u .

" P a d a m u l a n y a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C E S d i k e n a l sebagai f u n g s i p r o d u k s i A C M S y a n g d i a m b i l k a n d a r i k e p e n d e k a n n a m a A r r o w , C h e n e r y , M i n h a s d a n S o l o w sebagai o r a n g - o r a n g p e r t a m a y a n g m e m p e r k e n a l k a n f u n g s i t e r s e b u t . L i h a t t u l i s a n m e r e k a ( 1 9 6 1 ) ser ta L a y a r d d a n W a l t e r s ( 1 9 7 8 ) , h a l . 2 7 2 .

246


D e n g a n m e n g a n g g a p b a h w a h a n y a t e r d a p a t d u a j e n i s m a s u k a n y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m p r o s e s p r o d u k s i m a k a b e n t u k e k s p l i s i t d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k :

d a n T ? ^ 1

( 3 )

d i m a n a A = p a r a m e t e r e f f i s i e n s i , a = p a r a m e t e r d i s t r i b u s i , d = p a r a m e t e r h o m o g e n i t a s d a n |3 = , p a r a m e t e r s u b s t i t u s i a n t a r a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i ( A r r o w , e t . a l . , 1 9 6 1 ) . B e r d a s a r k a n e k s p a n s i T a y l o r d a r i l o g a r i t m a f u n g s i ( 3 ) d i s e k i t a r jS = 0 d a n k e m u d i a n s e t e l a h m e n g a b a i k a n t u r u n a n o r d e k e t i g a d a n s e l a n j u t n y a , K m e n t a ( 1 9 6 7 ) m e m p e r o l e h a p p r o k s i m a s i f u n g s i ( 3 ) y a n g b e r i k u t :

I n ( Q / X j ) = I n A + ( i J - l l l n X j + a i J l n f X j / X j ) - 1 / 2 a ( l - a ) ) ? [ I n ( X 2 / X j ) ] ^ . . ( 4 )

A l t e r n a t i f a p p r o k s i m a s i n y a y a n g j u g a b e r d a s a r k a n e k s p a n s i T a y l o r sep e r t i d i a t a s a d a l a h ( K m e n t a , 1 9 7 1 , h a l . 4 6 3 d a n B r i d g e , 1 9 7 1 , h a l . 3 2 8 d a n 3 2 9 ) :

I n e = I n A + a l n X j + ( 1 - a ) I n X2 - 1/2 ^da(l-a.) [ i n (X2/XJ)] ^ (5)

W a l a u p u n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S m e m p u n y a i e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i a n t a r a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i ( a ) y a n g k o n s t a n , k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s t e r s e b u t t i d a k l a h h a r u s s a m a d e n g a n s a t u k a r e n a n i l a i n y a a d a l a h a - 1 / ( 1 + (3). A g a r f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S m e m p u n y a i d e r a j a t h o m o g e n i t a s s a m a d e n g a n s a t u s e h i n g g a r e s p o n s k e l u a r a n t e r h a d a p p e r o b a h a n s e m u a m a s u k a n y a n g s e b a n d i n g m e n j a d i k o n s t a n (constant return to scale) m a k a k i t a h a r u s m e n g a n g g a p = 1 .

T e t a p i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S d e n g a n d u a m a c a m m a s u k a n s u k a r u n t u k d i k e m b a n g k a n m e n j a d i s a t u f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d a l a m b e n t u k u m u m d e n g a n m a s u k a n l e b i h d a r i d u a j e n i s . T e l a h b a n y a k u s a h a d a n u p a y a y a n g d i l a k u k a n p a r a a h l i d a l a m m e m b e n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S y a n g b e r l a k u u m u m . U z a w a ( 1 9 6 2 ) m i s a l n y a h a n y a m e m p e r o l e h f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S y a n g b e r l a k u u m u m y a n g t i d a k s e m p u r n a . l a m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b a h w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i :

/ ( X i , . . . , x „ ) = ( s a . x ; . - V ^ ( 6 )

h a n y a b e r l a k u s a h d a l a m a r t i b e r d e r a j a t h o m o g e n i t a s s a m a d e n g a n s a t u , s e c a r a s e m p u r n a b e r p u r a - p u r a c e k u n g d a n m e m p u n y a i t u r u n a n p a r s i a l u n t u k s e t i a p o r d e , h a n y a d a n h a n y a j i k a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s i t u s i p a r s i a l b e b a s d a r i h a r g a f a k t o r - f a k t o r p r o d u k s i . M e n u r u t U z a w a f u n g s i

2 4 7

Lains

p r o d u k s i C E S y a n g m e m p u n y a i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i y a n g k o n s t a n u n t u k s e t i a p p a s a n g m a s u k a n a d a l a h :

f(X) = n / ( ^ > ( X ) ^ ^ ( 7 )

S e l a n j u t n y a M u k e r j i ( 1 9 6 3 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 6 ) h a n y a h o m o g e n j i k a s e m u a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i m e m p u n y a i n i l a i j3 y a n g s a m a ( l i h a t j u g a L a y a r d a n d W a l t e r s , 1 9 7 8 , h a l . 2 7 5 ) . T e t a p i f u n g s i y a n g d e m i k i a n i t u t i d a k m e m p u n y a i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i y a n g k o n s t a n m e l a i n k a n r a s i o k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s n y a y a n g k o n s t a n . M u k e r j i m e n y a r a n -k a n b e n t u k u m u m f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C E S y a n g b e r i k u t :

Q = A[aX-^^+(l-a)X-^^r'^^^ ( 8 )

T e t a p i m e n u r u t M c F a d d e n ( 1 9 6 3 ) k i t a t i d a k m e m p u n y a i d e f i n i s i e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i y a n g t r a d i s i o n a l u n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d e n g a n m a s u k a n l e b i h d a r i d u a m a c a m . W a l a u p u n t e r d a p a t b e b e r a p a a l t e r n a t i f d e f i n i s i e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i , b e n t u k u m u m d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d e n g a n m a s u k a n l e b i h d a r i d u a j e n i s y a n g m e m p u n y a i e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i y a n g k o n s t a n m e n g h e n d a k i p e r s y a r a t a n - p e r s y a r a t a n p e m b a t a s y a n g k u a t t e r h a d a p n i l a i e l a s t i s i t a s . K e n d a l a t e r s e b u t m e m b u a t a s s u m s i k o n s t a n n y a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i u n t u k t u j u a n s t u d i e m p i r i s t i d a k d a p a t d i p e r t a h a n k a n w a l a u p u n h a n y a s e b a g a i h i p o t e s a k e r j a y a n g k a s a r . D i s a m p i n g i t u , t i d a k s a t u p u n d a r i a l t e r n a t i f d e f i n i s i e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i y a n g a d a d a p a t d i k a t a k a n s e m p u r n a k a r e n a m a s i n g - m a s i n g n y a h a n y a m e m b e r i k a n j a w a b a n t e r h a d a p p e r t a n y a a n y a n g b e r b e d a .

S e p a n j a n g p e n g e t a h u a n p e n u l i s t i d a k b a n y a k d i t e m u i s t u d i e m p i r i s y a n g m e m a n f a a t k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S . P a d a u m u m n y a s t u d i e m p i r i s y a n g a d a t e l a h m e n a k s i r f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s . L i h a t m i s a l n y a S o l o w ( 1 9 6 1 ) , G r i l i c h e s ( 1 9 6 3 a d a n 1 9 6 3 b ) , K h a n ( 1 9 6 3 ) , L a w a s ( 1 9 6 8 ) . H o o l e y ( 1 9 6 8 ) , P a r i s ( 1 9 7 1 ) , C r i s o s t o m o ( 1 9 7 2 ) , H a y a m i , e t . a l . ( 1 9 7 5 ) , C h o n g H y u n N a m ( 1 9 7 5 ) , P a t a l i n g h u k ( 1 9 8 2 ) , K i b r i a a n d T i s d e l l ( 1 9 8 3 ) d a n B r u c h ( 1 9 8 3 ) . W a l a u p u n t e r d a p a t b e b e r a p a s t u d i y a n g m e n a k s i r f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S , h a s i l y a n g d i p e r o l e h t i d a k l a h m e m u a s k a n . M . N a z i r ( 1 9 7 4 ) m i s a l n y a t e l a h m e n c o b a m e n a k s i r f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S d e n g a n d u a m a c a m m a s u k a n u n t u k m e n g a n a h s a p r o d u k t i v i t a s f a k t o r p r o d u k s i p e r t a n i a n d i I n d o n e s i a . D a t a l i n t a s u s a h a t a n i y a n g d i g u n a k a n n y a a d a l a h d a t a d i d a t a r a n r e n d a h J a w a B a r a t d a l a m m u s i m h u j a n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 6 7 - 1 9 7 1 ( t i g a m u s i m ) . H a s i l y a n g d i p e r o l e h n y a m e m p e r l i h a t k a n d u a g e j a l a y a n g t i d a k d i i n g i n k a n . Pertama, f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S a d a l a h c o c o k u n t u k s a t u a t a u d u a d i a n t a r a 3 m u s i m h u j a n y a n g d i k a j i t e t a p i m e n g b a s i l k a n k e t i d a k t e r a t u r a n (irregularity) d i a n t a r a k e t i g a m u s i m h u j a n t e r s e b u t . Kedua, h a s i l e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i p e r o l e h m e m p e r l i h a t k a n

2 4 8


s a t u a t a u d u a p a r a m e t e r y a n g t a n d a n y a s e s u a i d e n g a n y a n g d i h a r a p k a n t e t a p i t i d a k b e r b e d a d a r i n o l s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k .

S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n , f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S m e m u n g k i n k a n k i t a m e n a k s i r k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i s e c a r a t i d a k l a n g s u n g m e l a l u i e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k t i v i t a s X j d a n X j a t a u f u n g s i r a s i o m a s u k a n ( X j / X j ) y a n g d i t u r u n k a n d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t ( M u l a t , 1 9 8 0 ) . F u n g s i -f u n g s i y a n g d i m a k s u d y a n g r e l e v a n a d a l a h :

ln((2/Xj) = flo+ai Inwi (9)

In(Q/X2) = bQ+b^lnwj (10)

In (X1/X2) = C O +ci In ( W 1 / W 2 ) (11)

d i m a n a = b^ = = k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i ( a ) .

M u l a t t e l a h m e n a k s i r m o d e l ( 9 ) , ( 1 0 ) d a n ( 1 1 ) b e r d a s a r k a n d a t a l i n t a s i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a h a n d i F t h i o p i a u n t u k p e r i o d e 1 9 6 4 / 1 9 6 5 , 1 9 6 9 / 1 9 7 0 d a n 1 9 7 4 / 1 9 7 5 . H a s i l e s t i m a s i y a n g d i l a p o r k a n m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a h a n y a u n t u k b e b e r a p a k a s u s s a j a d i t e m u i n i l a i k i r a - k i r a s a m a d e n g a n ZJj d a n C j . T e t a p i M u l a t s e n d i r i t i d a k m e l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n s t a t i s t i k t e n t a n g k e m u n g k i n a n b e r b e d a n y a n i l a i k e t i g a p a r a m e t e r t e r s e b u t a t a u k e m u n g k i n a n b e r b e d a n y a n i l a i s e t i a p k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s d a r i s a t u . D i s a m p i n g i t u d i t e m u i p u l a n i l a i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i p a d a b e b e r a p a k a s u s l a i n n y a y a n g t i d a k b e r b e d a d a r i n o l s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n .

K e l e m a h a n - k e l e m a h a n p e m a k a i a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C F S d a l a m s t u d i e m p i r i s s e p e r t i y a n g d i s e b u t k a n d i a t a s t e l a h m e n d o r o n g p e n u h s u n t u k m e m a n f a a t k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s d a l a m s t u d i i n i . D i s a m p i n g i t u , f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s m a m p u m e m p e r l i h a t k a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t H i c k s , H a r r o d a t a u S o l o w ( U z a w a , 1 9 6 1 ) . F u n g s i p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t d e n g a n d u a j e n i s m a s u k a n b i a s a n y a d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k :

( 1 2 )

d i m a n a Q, A, X j , d a n X j m e m p u n y a i p e n a f s i r a n y a n g s a m a s e p e r t i p a d a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 3 ) s e d a n g a d a n |3 b e r t u r u t - t u r u t a d a l a h k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n d a r i m a s u k a n p e r t a m a d a n k e d u a ( l i h a t C o b b a n d D o u i a s , 1 9 2 8 ) . F u n g s i p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t m e m p u n y a i d e r a j a t h o m o g e n i t a s s a m a d e n g a n ( a + j 3 ) . R e s p o n k e l u a r a n t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n k e d u a m a s u k a n y a n g s e i m b a n g a k a n k o n s t a n (constant return to scale) j i k a ( a - I - |8) = 1 . R e s p o n s t e r s e b u t a k a n m e n a i k (increasing return to scale) s e a n d a i n y a ( a + ( 3 ) > 1 d a n a k a n m e n u r u n (decreasing return to scale) j i k a (a+^) < 1 . T e t a p i p a d a u m u m n y a s e b u a h f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d i a n g g a p m e m p u n y a i

249

Lains

d e r a j a t h o m o g e n i t a s s a m a d e n g a n s a t u ( H e n d e r s o n a n d Q u a n d t , 1 9 8 0 , h a l . 1 0 6 ) .

D i s a m p i n g i t u , t i n g k a t s u b s t i t u s i m a r g i n a l a n t a r a X ^ d a n X j a d a l a h s a m a d e n g a n a X ^ / j S X j , s e d a n g k a n k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i ( a ) a d a l a h s a m a d e n g a n s a t u .

F a k t o r p r o d u k s i t a n a h d i m a n a p a b r i k , g u d a n g , g e d u n g k a n t o r d a n b a n g u n a n l a i n n y a d i d i r i k a n p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d a p a t d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i m a s u k a n t e t a p (fixed input). H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a s e b u a h p e r u s a h a a n s e m e n t e l a h m e n y e d i a k a n a r e a l t a n a h t e r t e n t u p a d a s a a t p e n d i r i a n n y a d e n g a n m e m p e r h a t i k a n k e m u n g k i n a n p e r l u a s a n p a b r i k d i m a s a d e p a n . K a r e n a n y a , v a r i a b e l t a n a h t i d a k a k a n m u n c u l d a l a m f u n g s i p r o d u k s i s e m e n . A k i b a t n y a , j u m l a h p r o d u k s i s e m e n y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n h a n y a d i t e n t u k a n o l e h j u m l a h m a s u k a n v a r i a b e l k a p i t a l ( X ) , t e n a g a k e r j a ( Z ) d a n t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i g u n a k a n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n m o d e l e k o n o m e t r i k a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s u n t u k i n d u s t r i s e m e n d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k :

' Q = A X ^ Z ^ e " ( 1 3 )

d i m a n a e = 2 , 7 1 8 2 8 d a n = v a r i a b e l d i s t u r b a n s i . A p p r o k s i m a s i b e n t u k l i n i e r d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 3 ) a d a l a h :

I n Q = A ^ + a I n X + j S l n Z - H U ( 1 4 )

d i m a n a A ^ = I n A

K e l e m a h a n u t a m a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s ( 1 4 ) a d a l a h d i a n g g a p h o m o g e n n y a s e m u a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n p e r b e d a a n k u a l i t a s a n t a r m e s i n , b a n g u n a n d a n b a r a n g k a p i t a l l a i n n y a s e r t a t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i t e m u i p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n s e o l a h - o l a h t e l a h d i a b a i k a n . D a m p a k d i a b a i k a n n y a p e r b e d a a n k u a l i t a s t e r s e b u t s a m a s a j a d e n g a n d i k e l u a r k a n n y a v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l b e b a s y a n g r e l e v a n p e n g a r u h -n y a t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n v a r i a b e l t e r g a n t u n g ( K m e n t a , 1 9 7 1 , h a l . 3 9 6 ) . K a r e n a n y a , m o d e l ( 1 4 ) a k a n m e m p u n y a i p e n y i m p a n g a n s p e s i f i k a s i (specification error) s e h i n g g a p a r a m e t e r - p a r a m e t e r y a n g d i p e r o l e h c e n d e r u n g a k a n b i a s d a n t i d a k k o n s i s t e n . P e n y i m p a n g a n s p e s i f i k a s i t e r s e b u t a k a n m e n j a d i l e b i h b e s a r k a l a u s e k i r a n y a m o d e l ( 1 4 ) t i d a k m e r u p a k a n b e n t u k e k s p l i s i t y a n g b e n a r d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a .

T e t a p i p e r b e d a a n k u a l i t a s f a k t o r p r o d u k s i e r a t k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n m a s a l a h e f i s i e n s i p r o s e s p r o d u k s i y a n g s e l a n j u t n y a b e r k a i t a n p u l a d e n g a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n s e b u a h i n d u s t r i . K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i i n i b i a s a n y a t e r w u j u d (embodied) s e c a r a i m p l i s i t p a d a m e s i n - m e s i n y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a n k a r y a w a n y a n g m e l a y a n i n y a ( A l l e n , 1 9 6 7 , h a l . 2 3 7 ) .

250

Fungsi Produksi Cobb-Dougias

D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e n g a r u h n y a y a n g t e r a b a i k a n d a l a m m o d e l ( 1 3 ) a k a n d i t a m p u n g o l e h p a r a m e t e r e f i s i e n s i A k a r e n a p a r a m e t e r t e r s e b u t m e r u p a k a n s u a t u u k u r a n d a r i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e l e k a t p a d a s e m u a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i - disembodied technical change ( N a d i r i , 1 9 7 0 ) . D i s a m p i n g i t u , s e b a h a g i a n d a r i p e n g a r u h k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i j u g a a k a n d i t a m p u n g o l e h v a r i a b e l d i s t u r b a n s i u d a l a m m o d e l ( 1 4 ) . S e l a n j u t n y a m o d e l ( 1 4 ) j u g a t e l a h m e m p e r k e c i l k e m u n g k i n a n t e r d a p a t n y a p e n y i m p a n g a n s p e s i f i k a s i y a n g d i a k i b a t k a n o l e h k u r a n g b e n a r n y a b e n t u k e k s p l i s i t m o d e l y a n g d i s p e s i f i k a s i k a n . P e n g a r u h k e m u n g k i n a n t e r d a p a t n y a p e n y i m p a n g a n s p e s i f i k a s i t e r s e b u t t e l a h d i e l i m i n i r o l e h k o n s t a n t a A * d a n v a r i a b e l d i s t u r b a n s i i H a l t e r s e b u t d i m u n g k i n k a n k a r e n a s a l a h s a t u k o m p o n e n d a r i k o n s t a n t a A d a n v a r i a b e l u a d a l a h p e n y i m p a n g a n s p e s i f i k a s i y a n g d i m a k s u d ( l i h a t R a o a n d M i l l e r , 1 9 7 1 , h a l . 2 d a n 3 ) .

B . Intensitas P e m a k a i a n F a k t o r Produksi

D a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 2 ) k i t a a k a n m e m p e r o l e h

a I n G bQ K a I n G a G z ^ ~ —TV - N F T T d a n /3 = -—-—— = q — r - g - ( 1 5 )

a I n A a x G a i n z a z G B e r d a s a r k a n i d e n t i t i a s ( 1 5 ) d i a t a s a k a n d i d a p a t k a n t i n g k a t s u b s t i

t u s i t e k n i s (rate of technical substitution - R T S ) a n t a r a K d a n Z s e b e s a r

bQ/dL i3 A R T S ^ , = — — ( 1 6 )

bQ/bK a L

J i k a a > jS p a d a t i n g k a t A / Z t e r t e n t u m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 6 ) m e n g b a s i l k a n

bQ bQ > ( 1 7 )

bK . bL

A r t i n y a p r o d u k m a r g i n a l k a p i t a l ( M P ^ ^ ) l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p r o d u k m a r g i n a l t e n a g a k e r j a ( M P ^ ) . S e a n d a i n y a k e a d a a n t e r s e b u t d i t e m u i p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a m a k a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i n y a c e n d e r u n g p a d a t m o d a l (capital intensive) k a r e n a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i k a p i t a l a d a l a h l e b i h p r o d u k t i f d a r i f a k t o r p r o d u k s i t e n a g a k e r j a . S e b a l i k n y a j i k a a < j3 p a d a t i n g k a t A / Z t e r t e n t u m a k a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a c e n d e r u n g p a d a t k a r y a (labor intensive) s e b a g a i a k i b a t l e b i h p r o d u k t i f n y a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i t e n a g a k e r j a d a r i p a d a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i m o d a l ( S u d a r s o n o , 1 9 8 3 , h a l . 1 1 6 ) .

K e t i d a k s a m a a n ( 1 7 ) d a p a t d i r u b a h m e n j a d i

M M > 1 a t a u ^ > 1 ( 1 8 ) 3 G / 3 Z 3 A

251

Lains

K e t i d a k s a m a a n ( 1 8 ) d a p a t d i t a f s i r k a n d e n g a n m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i a k a n p a d a t m o d a l s e k i r a n y a k e l a n d a i a n (slope) k u r v a isoquant (q°) l e b i h b e s a r d a r i s a t u d a n p a d a t k a r y a j i k a k e l a n d a i a n k u r v a t e r s e b u t l e b i h k e c i l d a r i s a t u . S e c a r a g r a f i s ( l i h a t g a m b a r 1 ) d i k a t a k a n b a h w a p r o ses p r o d u k s i p a d a t i t i k A a d a l a h p a d a t m o d a l s e d a n g k a n y a n g d i t i t i k B a d a l a h p a d a t k a r y a .

G a m b a r 1 . Intensitas pemakaian kapital dan tenaga kerja

A p a k a h p r o s e s p r o d u k s i a k a n d i l a k s a n a k a n d i t i t i k A a t a u B, s a m p a i t a r a f t e r t e n t u t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a r a s i o h a r g a k a p i t a l (Pf^) d a n u p a h t e n a g a k e r j a (p^ ) . J i k a

Pk_

P l < 1 ( 1 9 )

m a k a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i c e n d e r u n g d i l a k s a n a k a n p a d a t i t i k A d e n g a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g p a d a t m o d a l . S e d a n g k a n k a l a u

Pk_

P l > 1 ( 2 0 )

m a k a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i c e n d e r u n g d i l a k u k a n d i t i t i k B d e n g a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g p a d a t k a r y a . T e t a p i p e m i l i h a n t i t i k A a t a u B a k a n d i t e n t u k a n o l e h k o n d i s i p a d a t i t i k m a n a d i p e n u h i p e r s y a r a t a n

Pk

P l

M P ,

M P , ( 2 1 )

252


C. Kemajuan Teknologi

K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i m e m p u n y a i i m p l i k a s i t e r d a p a t n y a p e n i n g k a t a n e f i s i e n s i d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p r o s e s p r o d u k s i . K a r e n a n y a , k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n s e b u a h i n d u s t r i a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n i n d u s t r i y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n m a m p u m e n g b a s i l k a n k e l u a r a n y a n g s a m a j u m l a b n y a d e n g a n m a s u k a n y a n g l e b i h s e d i k i t a t a u k e l u a r a n y a n g l e b i h b e s a r j u m l a b n y a d a p a t d i h a s i l k a n d e n g a n s e j u m l a b m a s u k a n y a n g s a m a .

K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t i d a k h a n y a t e r d a p a t p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n t e t a p i j u g a p a d a i n d u s t r i l a i n n y a d i I n d o n e s i a . A k i b a t t e r d a p a t n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t m a k a k u r v a k e m u n g k i n a n p r o d u k s i {production possibility curve) I n d o n e s i a a k a n b e r g e s e r k e k a n a n m e n j a u h i t i t i k a s a l 0 s e h i n g g a d a e r a h b a t a s (frontier) p r o d u k s i m e n j a d i b e r t a m b a h l u a s ( l i h a t g a m b a r 2 ) . K u r v a A G m e m p e r l i h a t k a n t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i s e b e l u m d i t e r a p -k a n n y a i n n o v a s i . S e d a n g k a n k u r v a PR m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i h a n y a d i t e r a p k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n . S e b a l i k n y a k u r v a SQ m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b a h w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i t e r a p k a n o l e h s e m u a i n d u s t r i l a i n d i l u a r i n d u s t r i s e m e n . S e l a n j u t n y a k u r v a SR m e r e f l e k s i k a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i p a d a s e m u a i n d u s t r i y a n g a d a .

K o m o d i t a s L a i n

S e m e n

G a m b a r 2 . Pergeseran kurva kemungkinan produksi akibat kemajuan teknologi

253

Lains

K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g h a n y a d i t e r a p k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n a k a n m e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i s e m e n d a r i OA m e n j a d i OB s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k s i i n d u s t r i l a i n n y a t e t a p s e b e s a r OK. T e t a p i k a l a u p r o p o r s i s e m e n d a n k o m o d i t a s l a i n n y a d a l a m p r o d u k n a s i o n a l t e t a p d i p e r t a h a n k a n s e p e r t i seb e l u m n y a m a k a p r o d u k s i s e m e n h a n y a a k a n n a i k m e n j a d i OC s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k s i k o m o d i t a s l a i n n y a j u g a a k a n n a i k d a r i OK m e n j a d i OL. S e l a n j u t n y a , j i k a i n n o v a s i h a n y a d i m a n f a a t k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i l a i n s e l a i n d a r i i n d u s t r i s e m e n m a k a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i a k a n m e n g a k i b a t k a n b e r p i n d a h -n y a t i t i k k o m b i n a s i k e l u a r a n d a r i t i t i k a k e t i t i k d a t a u k e t i t i k e s e a n d a i n y a p r o p o r s i m a s i n g - m a s i n g k o m o d i t a s t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r o b a h a n . T e t a p i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n o l e h s e m u a i n d u s t r i s e c a r a s e r e n t a k a k a n m e n g g e s e r t i t i k k o m b i n a s i k e l u a r a n k e s a l a h s a t u t i t i k p a d a k u r v a SR a t a u k e t i t i k / t a n p a p e r u b a h a n p r o p o r s i k e l u a r a n .

F u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 2 ) m e n c e r m i n k a n t e r d a p a t n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g t i d a k h a n y a t e r w u j u d m e l a l u i b a r a n g - b a r a n g k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g m e l a y a n i n y a s a j a t e t a p i j u g a m e r e f l e k s i k a n p e r b a i k a n m a n a j e -m e n i n d u s t r i , p e n i n g k a t a n i n v e s t a s i s u m b e r d a y a m a n u s i a p a d a k a r y a w a n d i l u a r y a n g m e l a y a n i m e s i n - m e s i n b a r u , p e m a s a n g a n a l a t p e n y e j u k u d a r a (air conditioners) p a d a r u a n g a n k e r j a , d a n p e m a n f a a t a n a l a t - a l a t l a i n n y a y a n g m e n i n g k a t k a n e f i s i e n s i k e r j a (disembodied technoiogicai change). K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t d a p a t b e r s i f a t n e t r a l a t a u b i a s t e r h a d a p p e m a k a i a n f a k t o r p r o d n k s i .

S e p a n j a n g p e n g e t a h u a n p e n u l i s t i d a k t e r d a p a t s u a t u k o n s e p t u n g g a l y a n g d i s e p a k a t i p a r a a h l i m e n g e n a i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m a u p u n y a n g b i a s . P a n d a n g a n H i c k s ( 1 9 3 2 a t a u 1 9 6 4 ) m e n g e n a i i n i t i d a k l a h s a m a d e n g a n p e n d a p a t H a r r o d ( 1 9 4 8 ) d a n j u g a b e r b e d a d e n g a n k o n s e p y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h S o l o w ( 1 9 5 9 ) . M e n u r u t H i c k s , k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i k a t a k a n n e t r a l j i k a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t m e n g g e s e r f u n g s i p r o d u k s i k e a t a s d e n g a n s u a t u k e s e r a g a m a n t a n p a m e n g u b a h - R T S a n t a r a A ' d a n L K e n a i k a n M P , , d a n M P , y a n g t e r j a d i k a r e n a t e r d a p a t n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l a d a l a h s e i m b a n g , s e h i n g g a u n t u k m e n g b a s i l k a n s a t u u n i t k e l u a r a n d e n g a n t e k n o l o g i b a r u d i p e r l u k a n j u m l a h m a s u k a n k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g l e b i h s e d i k i t . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a p a t d i k a t a k a n b a h w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t H i c k s a k a n m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a (labor and capital saving) d a l a m m e n g b a s i l k a n s a t u u n i t k e l u a r a n .

M e n u r u t A l l e n ( 1 9 6 7 , h a l . 2 3 9 d a n 2 4 0 ) k o n s e p k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t H i c k s a d a l a h y a n g p a l i n g s e s u a i d e n g a n i d e n e t r a l i t a s y a n g l a z i m d i a n u t . D i s a m p i n g i t u , k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t p a n d a n g a n H i c k s i n i s e c a r a a g r e g a t a k a n m e m p e r l u a s k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d i s a m p i n g m e m p e r b e s a r p e m a k a i a n k a p i t a l (labor and capital aug-

254


meriting) k a l a u f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i p u n y a i i n d u s t r i b e r s i f a t h o m o g e n s e c a r a l i n i e r . ^ K e a d a a n t e r s e b u t d i m u n g k i n k a n k a r e n a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i

Q = A(t) f(K,L) ( 2 2 )

y a n g h o m o g e n s e c a r a l i n i e r d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k

Q = f[Au)K, A(t)L ] (23)

a t a u

Q = fiK^.lJ (24)

d i m a n a = A(t)K d a n = A(t)L. S e d a n g k a n b e n t u k e k s p l i s i t f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scaie a d a l a h :

G - A ( 0 A « I ^ ; " a t a u

Q = K X ' - " • ( 2 4 a )

S e l a n j u t n y a m e n u r u t H i c k s , k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n n a i k n y a M P , d a n m e n g a k i b a t k a n t u r u n n y a M P , - a k a n m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l (capitai saving). S e b a l i k n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n i n g k a t k a n M P , -a k a n m e n g h e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a {labor saving) d a l a m m e n g b a s i l k a n s a t u u n i t k e l u a r a n .

B e r d a s a r k a n k o n s e p k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i a t a s d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l a t a u t e n a g a k e r j a a k a n c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n k a n a t a u m e n a i k a n t i n g k a t o p t i m a l r a s i o K/L s e a n d a i n y a h a r g a r e l a t i f f a k t o r p r o d u k s i t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n ( L a y a r d a n d W a l t e r s , 1 9 7 8 , h a l . 2 9 0 d a n 2 9 1 ) . S e b a l i k n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l c e n d e r u n g u n t u k t i d a k m e n g u b a h r a s i o K/L y a n g o p t i m a l , ceteris paribus.

D i s a m p i n g k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i , p e r u b a h a n h a r g a r e l a t i f K a t a u L j u g a t u r u t m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r u b a h a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a s i n g - m a s i n g m a s u k a n m e l a l u i p e r u b a h a n r a s i o K/L. F f e k t i v i t a s p e n g a r u h t e r s e b u t t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a n i l a i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i (a) a n t a r a K d a n L . K h u s u s u n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s d i m a n a a = 1 . p e n g a r u h y a n g d i m a k s u d s a n g a t k u a t ( N a d i r i , 1 9 7 0 ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , k e c e n d e r u n g a n p e n u r u n a n r a s i o KjL o p t i m a l s e b a g a i a k i b a t p e n e r a p a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l a k a n d i p e r l a m b a t a t a u d i p e r c e p a t o l e h k e -

S e b u a h f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g h o m o g e n berdera ja t s a tu d i k a t a k a n h o m o g e n secara l i n e a r {linearly homogenous), t e t a p i i n i t i d a k b e r a r t i b a b w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i t e r s ebu t b e r b e n t u k l i n e a r . Pada f u n g s i p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t ditemui constant return to scale.

255

Lains

n a i k a n a t a u p e n u r u n a n r a s i o p , / p , . D i l a i n p i h a k , k e c e n d e r u n g a n k e n a i k a n r a s i o KjL o p t i m a l y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h p e m a n f a a t a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a a k a n d i p e r c e p a t a t a u d i p e r l a m b a t o l e h k e n a i k a n a t a u p e n u r u n a n r a s i o p ^ ^ / p , •

P e n g e r t i a n n e t r a l i t a s a t a u b i a s n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i a t a s d a p a t d i p e r l i h a t k a n s e c a r a g r a f i s p a d a g a m b a r 3 d i m a n a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i d i -g a m b a r k a n p a d a r u a n g k e l u a r a n p e r p e k e r j a {q - Q/L) d a n k a p i t a l p e r p e k e r j a (k - K/L). A n a l i s a g r a f i s p a d a g a m b a r 3 m e n g a b a i k a n p e n g a r u h p e r u b a h a n r a s i o K/L k a r e n a t e r j a d i n y a p e r u b a h a n h a r g a r e l a t i f f a k t o r p r o d u k s i . K e m a m p u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l a k a n m e n g g e s e r t i t i k p r o d u k s i d a r i t i t i k a k e t i t i k b d e n g a n k - k^. T e t a p i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a a k a n m e n g g e s e r t i t i k p r o d u k s i d a r i t i t i k c k e t i t i k d s e h i n g g a r a s i o K/L c e n d e r u n g n a i k s e h i n g g a l e b i h b e s a r d a r i k^ • S e b a l i k n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l a k a n m e n g g e s e r t i t i k p r o d u k s i d a r i t i t i k e k e t i t i k / s e h i n g g a r a s i o K/L c e n d e r u n g t u r u n s e h i n g g a l e b i h k e c i l d a r i k^.

q

256


A t a u k a l a u k u r v a i s o k u a n (isoquant) p e r - u n i t k e l u a r a n ( G = 1 ) d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n n y a , a n a l i s i s g r a f i s k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i m e n u r u t H i c k s d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a g a m b a r 4 . S u m b u v e r t i k a l d a n h o r i z o n t a l p a d a g a m b a r t e r s e b u t b e r t u r u t - t u r u t m e n u n j u k k a n k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a p e r u n i t (K/Q d a n L/Q). P e r g e s e r a n k u r v a i s o k u a n d a r i cf^ m e n j a d i q*^^ y a n g l e b i h d e k a t k e t i t i k a s a l 0 m e r e f l e k s i k a n k e n a i k a n e f i s i e n s i d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p r o d u k s i y a n g d i a k i b a t k a n o l e h p e m a n f a a t a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i . G a m b a r ( 4 a ) a k a n m e m p e r l i h a t k a n k e a d a a n d i m a n a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i b e r s i f a t n e t r a l . P e r h a t i k a n l a h b a h w a k e l a n d a i a n (siope) k u r v a q* p a d a t i t i k a s a m a d e n g a n k e l a n d a i a n k u r v a i 7 j * j p a d a t i t i k 6 . P e n e r a p a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l d i p e r l i h a t k a n o l e h g a m b a r ( 4 b ) . K e l a n d a i a n k u r v a q*.^^ p a d a t i t i k d a d a l a h l e b i h c u r a m d a r i y a n g d i m i l i k i k u r v a i ? * p a d a t i t i k c. I n i b e r a r t i b a h w a u n t u k r a s i o K/L t e r t e n t u , s e p e r t i y a n g d i p e r l i h a t k a n o l e h t i t i k - t i t i k d i s e p a n j a n g g a r i s Ode p a d a g a m b a r ( 4 b ) , R T S a n t a r a A d a n Z t e l a h b e r k u r a n g . D e n g a n l a i n p e r k a t a a n , d i k a t a k a n b a h w a r a s i o M P ^ ^ / M P , t e l a h m e n j a d i l e b i h k e c i l p a d a t i t i k d . I n i h a n y a m u n g k i n t e r j a d i j i k a k e n a i k a n M P , l e b i h b e s a r d a r i k e n a i k a n M P , s e h i n g g a M P , s e c a r a r e l a t i f l e b i h r e n d a h d a r i M P , . K e a d a a n t e r s e b u t a k a n m e n d o r o n g p e r u s a h a a n / i n d u s t r i u n t u k m e n g u r a n g i k a p i t a l d a n m e n a m b a h t e n a g a k e r j a t a n p a a d a n y a p e r u b a h a n r a s i o Pf^/p^ s e h i n g g a p r o s e s p r o d u k s i a k a n d i l a k u k a n d i t i t i k d d a l a m k e a d a a n o p t i m a l . R a s i o A / Z d i t i t i k d a d a l a h l e b i h k e c i l d a r i y a n g d i t i t i k c. S e l a n j u t n y a G a m b a r ( 4 c ) m e n u n j u k k a n e f e k k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g h e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a . R T S a n t a r a A d a n Z d i t i t i k / a d a l a h l e b i h k e c i l d a r i y a n g d i t e m u i p a d a t i t i k e s e b a g a i a k i b a t r e l a t i f r e n d a h n y a M P , d a r i M P , . A k i b a t n y a j u m l a h t e n a g a k e r j a a k a n d i k u r a n g i d a l a m r a n g k a m e n c a p a i t i t i k o p t i m a l /, ceteris paribus. R a s i o A / Z d i t i t i k / a d a l a h l e b i h b e s a r d a r i y a n g d i t i t i k e.

P e r b e d a a n u t a m a a n t a r a k o n s e p H a r r o d s ( 1 9 4 8 ) d e n g a n p a n d a n g a n H i c k s m e n g e n a i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r l e t a k p a d a c a r a m e r e k a m e n g u k u r m a s u k a n k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a d a l a m f u n g s i p r o d u k s i . H i c k s t e l a h m e n g u k u r n y a d e n g a n u k u r a n y a n g l a z i m d i g u n a k a n s e h i n g g a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g s e s u a i d e n g a n H i c k s a d a l a h s e p e r t i y a n g d i p e r l i h a t k a n o l e h f u n g s i ( 2 2 ) . T e t a p i H a r r o d t e l a h m e n g u k u r m a s u k a n t e n a g a k e r j a d a l a m u n i t e f i s i e n s i s e h i n g g a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g r e l e v a n a d a l a h :

Q = flKAinL] (25)

a t a u

Q = / [ A Z J Z , = A(t)L

(26)

257

O O

G a m b a r 4 . Kemajuan teknologi yang netral, menghemat kapital dan menghemat tenaga kerja menurut Hicks


K a r e n a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 2 6 ) a d a l a h h o m o g e n s e c a r a l i n i e r m a k a k i t a d a p a t m e n u l i s k a n n y a d a l a m b e n t u k :

= A(t)f{k^) (27) u n t u k

fl, = QIL, = q/Au) k, = K/L, = k/Au) (28)

B e n t u k e k s p l i s i t d a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i (26) y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scale a d a l a b :

G = A " [ A ( O Z

= [ A ( r ) ] ^ - « A « Z ^ - « (29)

U n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 2 9 ) a k a n b e r l a k u d a l i l F u l e r y a n g m e n y a t a -k a n b a b w a :

dQ bQ

^ - M ' ' ^ ' ' ' ' ^

= a[A(n]'-W-'' + ( 1 - a ) M d J ^ - W " ' ' . . . ( 3 0 a )

= aQ + ( l - a ) G ( 3 0 b )

D e n g a n d e m i k i a n t e r i i b a t b a b w a s e a n d a i n y a s e t i a p f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d i -b a y a r d e n g a n p r o d u k m a r g i n a l n y a m a k a k e l u a r a n a k a n d i d i s t r i b u s i k a n k e p a d a m a s i n g - m a s i n g m a s u k a n s e s u a i d e n g a n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n ( H e n d e r s o n a n d Q u a n d t , 1 9 8 0 , b a l . 1 0 8 ) . D a l a m p a s a r p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a (perfect competition) p r o d u k m a r g i n a l k a p i t a l ( M P , ) a d a l a b s a m a d e n g a n t i n g k a t l a b a ( p ) s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k m a r g i n a l t e n a g a k e r j a ( M P , ) a d a l a h s a m a d e n g a n t i n g k a t u p a b (w).

B a g i a n k e l u a r a n y a n g d i t e r i m a p e m i l i k k a p i t a l (a) a d a l a b s a m a d e n g a n r a s i o M P , d a n A P , ( p r o d u k r a t a - r a t a k a p i t a l ) u n t u k f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g b o m o g e n , s e d a n g k a n

Q 1 1. 1

T = 7 : = T ^ - * - *

bQ bq bq, , M P , = - ^ = — = = f (k,) (32)

^ bK bk bk, *

P e r s a m a a n ( 3 1 ) d a n ( 3 2 ) m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b a b w a M P , t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a A P , = Q / A y a n g s e l a n j u t n y a t e r g a n t u n g p u l a p a d a k,. K a r e n a n y a t i n g k a t

259

Lains

l a b a ( p ) y a n g n i l a i n y a s a m a d e n g a n M P , d a l a m p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a a k a n d i t e n t u k a n o l e b A P , . B e r d a s a r k a n b a l i t u H a r r o d m e n y i m p u l k a n b a b w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i k a t a k a n n e t r a l j i k a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t t i d a k m e n g u b a b t i n g k a t l a b a ( p ) u n t u k t i n g k a t r a s i o Q/K t e r t e n t u d a l a m p a s a r p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a d e n g a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scale. S e b a l i k n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i k a t a k a n b i a s s e k i r a n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t m a m p u m e n g u b a b p , ceteris paribus. T a n p a a s s u m s i p a s a r p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a p e r n y a t a a n H a r r o d t e r s e b u t s e r i n g d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k y a n g b e r i k u t : D e n g a n a s s u m s i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return of scaie, k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i k a t a k a n n e t r a l j i k a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t t i d a k m e n g u b a b M P , u n t u k r a s i o Q/K t e r t e n t u d a n d i s e b u t b i a s s e a n d a i n y a k e a d a a n s e b a l i k n y a y a n g d i t e m u i . ( l i b a t A l l e n , 1967, b a l . 242 s e r t a L a y a r d a n d W a l t e r s , 1978, b a l . 291 d a n 292).

S e c a r a g r a f i s k o n s e p H a r r o d t e n t a n g k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l j u g a d a p a t d i p e r l i h a t k a n o l e b G a m b a r 3, t e t a p i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i -g a m b a r k a n a d a l a b f u n g s i (27). K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l a k a n m e n g g e s e r t i t i k p r o d u k s i d a r i t i t i k c k e t i t i k d. T e r i i b a t b a b w a k e l a n d a i a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i s e b e l u m d i t e r a p k a n n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i p a d a t i t i k c a d a l a b s e j a j a r d e n g a n k e l a n d a i a n f u n g s i t e r s e b u t s e t e l a b d i g e s e r o l e b k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i p a d a t i t i k d. D e n g a n l a i n p e r k a t a a n d i k a t a k a n b a b w a M P , p a d a t i t i k c s a m a d e n g a n M P , p a d a t i t i k d. A g a r k e a d a a n t e r s e b u t t e r c a p a i d i p e r l u k a n p e r s y a r a t a n a g a r Nj - ^k. S e l a n j u t n y a p e r g e s e r a n t i t i k p r o d u k s i k e t i t i k b m e r e f l e k s i k a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g b i a s m e n u r u t H a r r o d , s e a n d a i n y a r a s i o q/k a t a u Q/K p a d a t i t i k t e r s e b u t s a m a d e n g a n y a n g d i t i t i k c .

B e r d a s a r k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 2 5 ) k i t a d a p a t m e n y i m p u l k a n b a b w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t H a r r o d s e c a r a a g r e g a t a k a n m e m p e r l u a s k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a {labor augmenting).

B e r b e d a d e n g a n H a r r o d , S o l o w t e l a b m e n g u k u r m a s u k a n k a p i t a l d a l a m u n i t e f i s i e n s i s e h i n g g a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g r e l e v a n d e n g a n k o n s e p -n y a a d a l a b ' * :

Q= f{A(t)K,L ] (33) y a n g j u g a b o m o g e n s e c a r a l i n i e r . K a r e n a n y a k i t a d a p a t m e n u l i s k a n n y a d a l a m b e n t u k

Pada m u l a n y a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d ipegang S o l o w a d a l a h persis sama dengan f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 2 2 ) y a n g d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n k o n s e p H i c k s ( l i h a t S o l o w , 1 9 5 7 ) . T e t a p i k e m u d i a n i a m e m e g a n g as sums i b a h w a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i a k a n m e m perbesar m a s u k a n k a p i t a l {capital augmenting) s e p e r t i dapat d ibaca d a l a m t u l i s a i m y a y a n g l a i n ( S o l o w , 1 9 5 9 ) .

260


q* = f(k*) ( 3 4 )

u n t u k q* = Q/K = q/k ( 3 5 )

k* = L/A(t)K = \IA(t)k

F u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 3 3 ) y a n g s e s u a i d e n g a n k o n s e p S o l o w a d a l a h

Q = A [fl(nA]" Z^"" (36)

= A [ a ( n A « Z ^ - "

D a r i f u n g s i t e r s e b u t a k a n d i p e r o l e h :

Q q* 3 ' A P , = ^ = 2 — = f{k*) ( 3 7 )

L k* k* .

U P = ^ = ^ = f'ik*) ( 3 8 ) 8Z dk*

J e l a s t e r l i h a t d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 3 3 ) d a n ( 3 4 ) b a h w a M P , t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a A P , y a n g s e l a n j u t n y a t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a k * . K a r e n a n y a , a n a l o g d e n g a n k o n s e p H a r r o d , k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d i k a t a k a n n e t r a l d a l a m p e n g e r t i a n S o l o w j i k a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t t i d a k m e r u b a b M P , u n t u k r a s i o Q/L t e r t e n t u d a n d i s e b u t b i a s j i k a k o n d i s i t e r s e b u t t i d a k d i p e n u h i s a m b i l m e n g a n g g a p b a b w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scale.

K o n s e p S o l o w j u g a d a p a t d i p e r l i h a t k a n m e l a l u i g a m b a r 3 . T e t a p i s e k a r a n g s u m b u v e r t i k a l m e n u n j u k k a n q/k d a n s u m b u h o r i z o n t a l m e m p e r l i h a t k a n \/k s e d a n g k a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i g a m b a r k a n a d a l a b f u n g s i ( 3 4 ) . K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e n g g e s e r t i t i k p r o d u k s i d a r i t i t i k c k e t i t i k d a d a l a b b e r s i f a t n e t r a l . K e a d a a n i n i h a n y a d a p a t t e r c a p a i j i k a ^q/k) = A ( i / k ) a t a u HQ/K) = ^(L/K).

U r a i a n d i a t a s t e l a b m e n g e m u k a k a n p e r s y a r a t a n n e t r a l i t a s d a n b i a s n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i d e n g a n m e m p e r h a t i k a n p r o d u k m a r g i n a l m a s i n g -m a s i n g f a k t o r p r o d u k s i . T e t a p i s e b e t u l n y a t e r d a p a t b e b e r a p a c a r a d a l a m m e n e n t u k a n k o n d i s i t e r s e b u t ( S t i g h l i t z a n d U z a w a , 1 9 6 9 s e p e r t i d a p a t d i b a c a d a l a m N a d i r i , 1 9 7 0 ) . A l t e r n a t i f l a i n y a n g d a p a t d i l a k u k a n a d a l a b m e n e n t u k a n k o n d i s i t e r s e b u t d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e r u b a b a n d a r i b a g i a n (share) r e l a t i f f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a l a m k e l u a r a n y a n g s e c a r a m a t e m a t i s d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k :

3 KdQ LdQ

261

Lains

K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i a d a l a h n e t r a l j i k a / = 0 d a n m e n g h e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a s e a n d a i n y a / > 0 s e r t a m e n g h e m a t k a p i t a l k a l a u / < 0 k a l a u K/L k o n s t a n ( H i c k s ) a t a u Q/K k o n s t a n ( H a r r o d ) a t a u Q/L k o n s t a n ( S o l o w ) . K e s i m p u l a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i a m b i l k a r e n a i d e n t i t a s ( 3 9 ) d i a t a s d a p a t p u l a d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k ;

a bQIdK K

3 dQ/dK K Q

K o n s t a n n y a Q/K a t a u Q/L m e m u n g k i n k a n b e r u b a b n y a K/L. T e t a p i p e r u b a b a n K/L y a n g m e m b u a t k o n s t a n n y a b a g i a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a l a m k e l u a r a n ( / = 0 ) b a n y a d i t e m u i p a d a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scale k a r e n a e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i y a n g d i p u n y a i n y a a d a l a b s a t u ( a = 1 ) s e h i n g g a

K dQ/dK _ djdQ/dK)

L dQ/dL ~ d{dQ/dL) ^^^^

K a r e n a n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t k e t i g a k o n s e p y a n g t e l a b d i k e m u k a k a n d i a t a s a d a l a b i d e n t i k p a d a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b -D o u g i a s . M a k s u d n y a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g n e t r a l m e n u r u t H i c k s a d a l a b j u g a n e t r a l d a l a m p a n d a n g a n H a r r o d d a n S o l o w j i k a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i s p e s i f i k a s i k a n a d a l a b f u n g s i C o b b - D o u g l a s d e n g a n c o n s t a n t return to scale ( l i b a t U z a w a , 1 9 6 1 d a n A l l e n , 1 9 6 7 , b a l . 2 5 0 ) . S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e m p e r l u a s k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a ( n e t r a l m e n u r u t H a r r o d ) d a n m e m p e r b e s a r p e m a k a i a n k a p i t a l ( n e t r a l m e n u r u t S o l o w ) t i d a k l a h b a r u s i d e n t i k d e n g a n y a n g m e n g b e m a t k a p i t a l a t a u t e n a g a k e r j a d a l a m p a n d a n g a n H i c k s ( L a y a r d a n d W a l t e r s , 1 9 7 8 , b a l . 2 9 2 ) .

W a l a u n e t r a l i t a s d a l a m p a n d a n g a n H i c k s a d a l a b i d e n t i k d e n g a n p a n d a n g a n H a r r o d d a n S o l o w p a d a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s d e n g a n constant return to scale, t i n g k a t k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i ( m ) t i d a k l a h s a m a u n t u k k e t i g a n y a ( A l l e n , 1 9 6 7 , b a l . 2 4 8 - 2 5 1 ) . S e a n d a i n y a p a r a m e t e r e f i s i e n s i b e r k e m b a n g s e p a n j a n g w a k t u m a k a A ( f > = e ^ , d i m a n a X m e r u p a k a n s e b u a h b i l a n g a n k o n s t a n y a n g l e b i b b e s a r d a r i n o l ( X > 0 ) . S u b s t i t u s i n i l a i t e r s e b u t k e d a l a m f u n g s i ( 2 4 a ) , ( 2 9 ) d a n ( 3 6 ) b e r t u r u t - t u r u t m e m b e r i k a n :

Q= ,\a-a)t ^!-oi ^ 4 2 )

G = C ^ * ^ A " Z ^ - "

262


D e n g a n t i n g k a t k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g k o n s t a n s e b e s a r m, m a k a :

. X = m a t a u m = \ p a d a k o n s e p H i c k s X = m(l-a) a t a u m = X / l - a p a d a k o n s e p H a r r o d X = ma a t a u m = Xfa p a d a k o n s e p S o l o w

D . Perkembangan dan Sumber P e r t u m b u h a n K e l u a r a n

D a r i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i (13) t a n p a v a r i a b e l d i s t u r b a n s i U akan d i p e r o l e h :

dQ = F(K,L) dA +-^dK + .^dL (43) O A oL

d a n dQ _ F{KL)dA ^ bQ_ M_ ^ dQ dL ~Q ~ Q ^ dK Q dL Q

= M ( 4 4 ) A dK Q' K dL Q L

K a l a u F m e r u p a k a n f u n g s i C o b b - D o u g l a s y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scale m a k a :

dQ dA ^ dK ^ ^' . dL = + a + ( 1 - a ) ( 4 5 )

Q A K L

a t a u

g^ = g^ + agf, + ( l - a ) g , ( 4 6 ) I d e n t i t a s ( 4 6 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e l u a r a n ( g ^ ) t e r d i r i d a r i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p a r a m e t e r e f i s i e n s i (g^ ) d a n l a j u p e r t u m o u b a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g m a s u k a n ( g , d a n g , ) d i k a l i k a n d e n g a n b a g i a n m a s i n g -m a s i n g f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a l a m k e l u a r a n ( a u n t u k K d a n 1 - a u n t u k Z ) /

L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n g ^ t e l a b d i u k u r S o l o w s e b a g a i r e s i d u a l ( t i o l o v v , 1 9 5 7 ) . K e n y a t a a n m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a m a s u k a n s e r i n g d i u k u r s e c a r a t i d a k t e p a t s e h i n g g a s e k i r a n y a i n d e k s D i v i s i a d i s u s u n d e n g a n m e m p e r h a t i k a n p e r u b a b a n k u a l i t a s t e n a g a k e r j a d a n k a p i t a l m a k a i n d e k s g e o -m e t r i s S o l o w t e r s e b u t a k a n m e m b e r i k a n n i l a i r e s i d u a l y a n g s a m a d e n g a n n o l ( J o r g e n s o n a n d G r i l i c h e s , 1 9 6 7 ) . K a r e n a n y a o r a n g s e r i n g m e n g u k u r n y a b e r d a s a r k a n i n d e k s a r i s m e t i k K e n d r i c k d e n g a n f o r m u l a ( K e n d r i c k , 1 9 6 1 ) :

L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n kadang-kadang j u g a d i s e b u t sebagai i a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s t o t a l f a k t o r p r o d u k s i (total factor productivity).

263

Lains

QJQd

( w Z j + T A J ) / ( W Z O + r A o ) V

d i m a n a w = t i n g k a t u p a h , r = t i n g k a t h a s i l k a p i t a l (rate return on capital) s e r t a b i l a n g a n 1 d a n 0 d i b a w a b s i m b o l m a s i n g - m a s i n g v a r i a b e l b e r t u r u t -t u r u t m e n u n j u k k a n p e r i o d e s e k a r a n g d a n p e r i o d e d a s a r . T e t a p i k a r e n a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 3 ) y a n g k i t a s p e s i f i k a s i k a n t i d a k m e m p e r h a t i k a n p e r b e d a a n k u a l i t a s b a r a n g - b a r a n g k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a , s t u d i i n i m e n g h i t u n g g ^ s e b a g a i r e s i d u a l s e p e r t i y a n g d i l a k u k a n S o l o w .

E . Spesifikasi V a r i a b e l dan Sumber D a t a

P e n d e k a t a n f u n g s i p r o d u k s i y a n g d i g u n a k a n s t u d i i n i m e m e r l u k a n d a t a t e n t a n g Q, K d a n L d i l i n g k u n g a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6 . P e m i l i h a n p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t b a n y a l a b s e m a t a - m a t a k a r e n a t i d a k b e r b a s i l n y a d i p e r o l e h d a t a u n t u k p e r i o d e s e b e l u m n y a . S e l a i n i t u j u g a d i p e r l u k a n d a t a m e n g e n a i i n d e k s h a r g a s e m e n , i n d e k s h a r g a k o n s u m e n d a n d e f l a t o r i n v e s t a s i d a l a m n e g e r i . S e m u a d a t a y a n g d i p e r l u k a n b e r a s a l d a r i B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k d a n A s s o s i a s i S e m e n I n d o n e s i a .

V a r i a b e l Q d i u k u r d e n g a n n i l a i k e l u a r a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g d i -k o r e k s i (deflated) d e n g a n i n d e k s h a r g a s e m e n * ( 1 9 8 3 = 1 0 0 ) , s e d a n g k a n v a r i a b e l L m e r u p a k a n j u m l a h s e l u r u h k a r y a w a n b a i k k a r y a w a n p r o d u k s i m a u p u n k a r y a w a n n o n p r o d u k s i y a n g b e k e r j a p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n . S e l a n j u t n y a v a r i a b e l K t e l a b d i u k u r d e n g a n s t o k b a r a n g - b a r a n g k a p i t a l s e b a g a i m a n a d i l a k u k a n o l e b A b r a m o v i t z ( 1 9 5 6 ) , S o l o w ( 1 9 5 7 ) , D e n i s o n ( 1 9 6 2 ) d a n G r i l i c h e s ( 1 9 6 3 ) .

D a t a m e n g e n a i K i n i s e b e t u l n y a t i d a k l a h t e r s e d i a d a n k a r e n a n y a s t u d i i n i t e l a b m e n c o b a m e n a k s i r n y a . E s t i m a s i i n i d i l a k u k a n b e r d a s a r k a n d a t a n i l a i d e p r e s i a s i b a r a n g - b a r a n g k a p i t a l p a d a t a b u n 1 9 7 0 . D e n g a n a n g g a p a n b a b w a t i n g k a t d e p r e s i a s i r a t a - r a t a a d a l a b 6 , 5 % d a r i h a r g a p e r o l e b -a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g k a p i t a l p e r t a b u n ^ , n i l a i s t o k k a p i t a l u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 7 1 d a n s e t e r u s n y a d i b i t u n g b e r d a s a r k a n d e f i n i s i y a n g b e r i k u t :

^ r = ^ ( - l + A A , K e m u d i a n a n g k a y a n g d i p e r o l e h d i k o r e k s i d e n g a n r a s i o k e l u a r a n s e m e n d a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g i n d u s t r i s e m e n s e h i n g g a d i p e r o l e h s t o k k a p i t a l y a n g d i u t i l i s a s i k a n (utilized capital stock).

" K o n f i r m a s i pada P T S e m e n Padang m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p e r u s a h a a n t e r s ebu t m e n g a m b i l t i n g k a t depresias i a n t a r a 5 - 7 % d a r i ha rga p e r o l e h barang-barang k a p i t a l .

264


F . M e t o d a Estimasi dan P e n g u j i a n

F u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 4 ) y a n g t e l a h d i s p e s i f i k a s i k a n p e r t a m a - t a m a d i t a k s i r d e n g a n m e t o d a Ordinary Least Squares ( O L S ) s t a n d a r . K e m u d i a n d i l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n a p a k a h ( a ^ i 3 ) = 1 a t a u t i d a k d e n g a n m e n g h i t u n g s t a t i s t i k t? J i k a j u m l a h k e d u a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r s e b u t a d a l a b s i g n i f i k a n s a m a d e n g a n s a t u m a k a e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i a k a n d i u l a n g i d e n g a n m e m a n f a a t k a n m e t o d a O L S b e r k e n d a l a d i m a n a ( a -H |3) = 1 d i j a d i k a n s e b a g a i k e n d a l a . M e m p e r h a t i k a n k e n d a l a t e r s e b u t , s e c a r a a l t e r n a t i f d a n d a l a m r a n g k a m e n g b e m a t t e n a g a d a n w a k t u u n t u k m e l a k u k a n k o m p u t a s i , s t u d i i n i m e n a k s i r f u n g s i p r o d u k t i v i t a s t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g b e r i k u t ^ :

q = A ( f ) k " e "

H a s i l e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k t i v i t a s t e r s e b u t d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g k a j i p e m a k a i a n f a k t o r p r o d u k s i d a n m e n g h i t u n g s u m b e r p e r t u m b u h a n k e l u a r a n .

S e l a n j u t n y a u n t u k m e n g e t a h u i a p a k a h k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g m e l e k a t p a d a p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n b e r s i f a t n e t r a l a t a u b i a s , s t u d i i n i m e n a k s i r f u n g s i p r o d u k t i v i t a s d i a t a s u n t u k d u a s u b - p e r i o d e y a n g b e r l a i n -a n y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i s u b - p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 d a n 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 6 . ^ K e m u d i a n d i l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n a p a k a h t e r d a p a t p e r b e d a a n y a n g s i g n i f i k a n a n t a r a a. d a n f3 u n t u k k e d u a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t b e r d a s a r k a n p e n g u j i a n C h o w y a n g m e m a n f a a t k a n s t a t i s t i k F.*° H a s i l p e n g u j i a n j u g a m e r e f l e k s i k a n b e r b e d a a t a u t i d a k n y a R T S I ( R T S u n t u k s u b - p e r i o d e I ) d a n R T S 11 ( R T S u n t u k

' F o r m u l a s t a t i s t i k r y a n g r e l e v a n a d a l a h

di m a n a V a r ( a + jS) = var ( a ) + var ( ^ + 2 c o v ( o ; i3)

E s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k t i v i t a s tenaga k e r j a i n i a k a n m e n g u r a n g i k e h a d i r a n k o -l i n i e r i t a s ganda d a n he t e rosedas t i s i t a s ( I n t r i l i g a t o r , 1 9 7 8 , h a l . 2 6 9 ) .

^ P e m i l i h a n sub p e r i o d e i n i a d a l a h a r b i t r e r s i f a t n y a . S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n perb e d a a n dera ja t kebebasan y a n g d i p e r o l e h a n t a r a k e d u a p e r i o d e t i d a k l a h b e r p e n g a r u h u n t u k m e n g a m b i l k e s i m p u l a n d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n .

F o r m u l a s t a t i s t i k F y a n g r e l e v a n a d a l a h ^(k,n-2k) = ( ^ ^ ^ ^ - ( " - 2 A : ) / R S S \\{k) di m a n a R S S I = J u m l a h k u a d r a t r e s i d u a l y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i e s t i m a s i m o d e l dengan data u n t u k s e l u r u h p e r i o d e , R S S I I = R S S j + R S S j , R S S j = j u m l a h k u a d r a t r e s i d u a l y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i e s t i m a s i m o d e l dengan da ta u n t u k sub -pe r iode I , R S S ^ = j u m l a h k u a d r a t r e s i d u a l y a n g dipero l e h d a r i e s t i m a s i m o d e l dengan da ta u n t u k sub-pe r iode I I , n = AZJ -t M ^ - ~ j u m l a h obse rvas i p a d a sub-pe r iode I , ~ j u m l a h obse rvas i u n t u k sub -pe r iode I I dan k = j u m l a h p a r a m e t e r y a n g d i t a k s i r .

265

L a i n s

s u b - p e r i o d e I I ) . T e t a p i u n t u k l e b i h m e y a k i n k a n k i t a , k e m b a l i d i s i n i d i m a n f a a t k a n p e n g u j i a n / s a m b i l m e n g a n g g a p t i d a k t e r d a p a t n y a k o r e l a s i a n t a r a R T S I d a n R T S I I . * *

U n t u k d a p a t m e n g h i t u n g R T S 1 d a n R T S I I t e r l e b i h d a b u l u d i b i t u n g n i l a i M P , d a n M P , b e r d a s a r k a n n i l a i r a t a - r a t a Q, L d a n K u n t u k s e t i a p p e r i o d e y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n s e h i n g g a :

M P , ^ . = a , ^ = a , QJK^

v a r ( a , J = ( Q ^ | K . f v a r ( a . )

v a r ( / J , J = ( G , / Z , ) ^ v a r ( / 3 , )

v a r ( a , ) = v a r ( / 3 , )

R T S , = 7,. = /

v a r (7,)'^ = [ v a r ( ^ , J ] / a , ^ + 2 ^ „ [ c o v ( a , ^ . ^ , , ) ] / a , ^ ,

+ &u v a r [ ( a , . ) ] / a , t

c o v ( a „ . / 3 , J v a r ( a , ) = - = - ^ v a r ( ^ , )

I I I . Penemuan Empiris dan Analisis

A . F u n g s i Produksi Cobb-Dougias dan Sumber P e r t u m b u h a n K e i u a r a n

H a s i l e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 1 4 ) d e n g a n m e t o d a O L S s t a n d a r a d a l a b :

I n 2 = 2 , 5 2 6 6 8 + 0 , 5 7 2 6 7 I n A + 0 , 3 3 9 0 9 I n Z ; = 0 , 9 9 5 9 0 ( 2 , 6 7 6 ) ( 1 0 , 3 3 9 ) ( 1 , 9 4 1 ) F = 8 4 8 , 3 1 6 8 6

d = 2 , 1 0 3 5 4

A s s u m s i i n i a d a l a h t e r l a i u k u a t k a r e n a R T S d i t e n t u k a n o l e h M P , dan M P , s e d a n g k a n k o r e l a s i u n t u k M P , I dengan M P , I I a t a u a n t a r a M P , I d a n M P , I I m u n g k i n t i d a k sama dengan n o l . K a r e n a n y a k i t a a k a n m e m p u n y a i p r o b a b i l i t a s b e r b e d a n y a c o v ( R T S I , R T S I I ) d a r i n o l . T e t a p i k e s u l i t a n a k a n t i m b u l d a l a m m e n g h i t u n g c o v ( R T S I , R T S I I ) sehingga a s sums i y a n g d i b u a t a d a l a h c u k u p beralasan. F o r m u l a s ta t i s t i k t y a n g r e l e v a n a d a l a h

t = ( R T S I - R T S I I ) / [ v a r ( R T S I ) + var ( R T S I I ) ] . L i h a t T h e i l , 1 9 7 8 , h a l . 2 1 5 .

l ^ L i h a t : K l e i n , 1 9 5 3 , h a l . 2 5 8 d a n K m e n t a , 1 9 7 1 , h a l . 4 4 4 .

266


H a s i l r e g r e s i t e r s e b u t m e m p e r l i b a t k a n b a b w a b a n y a s e k i t a r 0 , 4 1 % d a r i p e r u b a b a n Q y a n g t i d a k d i t e r a n g k a n o l e b p e r u b a b a n K d a n L . P e n g a r u b g a b u n g a n K d a n Z t e r b a d a p Q a d a l a b s a n g a t s i g n i f i k a n y a n g d i p e r l i h a t k a n o l e b s a n g a t b e s a r n y a n i l a i b i t u n g s t a t i s t i k F. P e n g a r u b m a s i n g - m a s i n g f a k t o r p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t j u g a s a n g a t s i g n i f i k a n s e b a g a i a k i b a t c u k u p b e s a r n y a n i l a i b i t u n g s t a t i s t i k t ( l i b a t a n g k a d a l a m t a n d a k u r u n g p a d a b a s i l r e g r e s i d i a t a s ) . D e m i k i a n p u l a k o r e l a s i s e r i a l t i d a k m u n c u l k a r e n a s t a t i s t i k D u r b i n - W a t s o n ( d ) y a n g d i p e r o l e h a d a l a b l e b i b b e s a r d a r i b a t a s a t a s n y a d a l a m t a b e l s t a t i s t i k t e r s e b u t .

W a l a u p u n p e n j u m l a b a n n i l a i a b s o l u t k e d u a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n y a n g d i p e r o l e h a d a l a b l e b i b k e c i l d a r i s a t u ( 0 , 9 9 1 1 7 6 ) , p e n g u j i a n / m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a k o m b i n a s i k c d u a n y a t i d a k l a h b e r b e d a d a r i s a tu .* -* K a r e n a n y a , p a r a m e t e r y a n g d i p e r o l e h t i d a k l a h u n i k s e h i n g g a m o d e l b a r u s d i t a k s i r k e m b a l i d e n g a n m e t o d e O L S b e r k e n d a l a l i n i e r .

D e n g a n m e m p e r h a t i k a n k e n d a l a ( a -)- j 3 ) = 1 , e s t i m a s i l e b i b l a n j u t m e n g b a s i l k a n :

I n <7= 1 , 8 5 7 4 7 + 0 , 5 3 6 5 9 I n X ; F = 0,9132% ( 2 3 , 3 7 4 7 1 ) d = 2 , 0 3 2 8 8

A s s o s i a s i a n t a r a q d a n k c u k u p k u a t d a n m a s a l a h k o r e l a s i s e r i a l t i d a k m u n c u l p a d a b a s i l r e g r e s i y a n g d i p e r o l e h . K o e f i s i e n r e g r e s i s e b e s a r 0 , 5 3 6 5 9 a d a l a b k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p k a p i t a l ( a ) . A k i b a t n y a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p t e n a g a k e r j a ( j S ) a d a l a b 0 , 4 6 3 4 1 . S e m u a n y a i n i b e r a r t i b a b w a p e r u b a b a n m a s u k k a n k a p i t a l seb e s a r 1 0 % t e l a b m e n g u b a b j u m l a h p r o d u k s i s e m e n s e k i t a r 5 , 4 %, s e d a n g k a n p e r u b a b a n m a s u k a n t e n a g a k e r j a d e n g a n p e r s e n t a s e y a n g s a m a t e l a b m e r u b a b j u m l a h k e l u a r a n s e m e n s e k i t a r 4 , 6 % d e n g a n a r a b y a n g s a m a , ceteris paribus.

P e n e m u a n e m p i r i s t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t e l a b m e m p e r l i b a t k a n c o n s r a w t r c m r n to scaie. I n i b e r a r t i b a b w a k e n a i k a n k e l u a r a n s e m e n y a n g t e r j a d i m e m p u n y a i p r o p o r s i ( p e r b a n d i n g a n ) y a n g s a m a d e n g a n k e n a i k a n k o m b i n a s i m a s u k k a n k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i g u n a k a n . D e n g a n l a i n p e r k a t a a n , k e n a i k a n k o m b i n a s i m a s u k a n s e b e s a r 1 0 % j u g a t e l a b m e n y e b a b k a n k e n a i k a n p r o -

N i l a i b i t u n g s t a t i s t i k t y a n g d i p e r o l e h a d a l a h - 0 , 7 1 8 1 4 y a n g k e n y a t a a n n y a l e b i h k e c i l d a r i n i l a i t a b e l t pada derajat k e p e r c a y a a n 9 9 , 5 % d a n dera ja t kebebasan . D i s a m p i n g i t u p e r l u d i k e m u k a k a n d i s i n i b a h w a h a s i l e s t i m a s i f u n g s i p r o d u k s i ( 4 ) d a n ( 5 ) m e m p u n y a i k o e f i s i e n regressi u n t u k i n ( A / i ) y a n g t i d a k s i g n i f i k a n sehingga m e n a m b a h k e y a k i n a n k i t a b a h w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s a d a l a h b e r l a k u sah u n t u k i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a .

2 6 7

Lains

d u k s i s e m e n d a l a m p e r s e n t a s e y a n g s a m a s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i . K e n a i k a n k e l u a r a n y a n g 1 0 % t e r s e b u t a d a l a h a k i b a t k e n a i k a n m a s u k a n k a p i t a l s e b e s a r 5 , 4 % s e r t a k e n a i k a n m a s u k a n t e n a g a k e r j a s e b e s a r 4 , 6 %.

D a t a h i s t o r i s m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p r o d u k s i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t e l a h m e n i n g k a t s e b e s a r 2 0 , 9 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 8 6 . D i l a i n p i h a k m a s u k a n k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a t e l a b m e n i n g k a t b e r t u r u t -t u r u t s e b e s a r 1 6 , 6 % d a n 6 , 7 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a h u n d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n m a s u k a n k a p i t a l t e l a b m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i t e r b a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n k e l u a r a n s e m e n s e b e s a r 4 2 , 6 2 % s e d a n g k a n a n d i l t e n a g a k e r j a b a n y a l a b s e k i t a r 1 4 , 8 6 %. A k i b a t n y a , k o n t r i b u s i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n t e r b a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e m e n a d a l a b s e b e s a r 4 2 , 5 2 % ( d i b i t u n g s e b a g a i r e s i d u a l ) s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i .

B . Intensitas P e m a k a i a n F a k t o r Produksi dan K e m a j u a n Teknologi

K o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n y a n g d i p e r o l e h j u g a m e m p e r l i b a t k a n b a b w a r a s i o p r o d u k s i m a r g i n a l k a p i t a l ( M P , ) d a n p r o d u k s i r a t a - r a t a k a p i t a l ( A P , ) a d a l a b l e b i b b e s a r d a r i r a s i o p r o d u k m a r g i n a l t e n a g a k e r j a ( M P , ) d a n p r o d u k r a t a - r a t a t e n a g a k e r j a ( A P , ) . K a r e n a n y a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a c e n d e r u n g l e b i b b e r s i f a t p a d a t m o d a l s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i . S e a n d a i n y a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i d i b a g i m e n j a d i d u a s u b p e r i o d e y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 d a n 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 6 , s e o l a b - o l a b m d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a l e b i b b e r s i f a t p a d a t k a r y a d a l a m p e r i o d e t e r a k h i r . H a l t e r s e b u t d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a b a s i l r e g r e s i y a n g d i p e r o l e h u n t u k s u b p e r i o d e 1 a d a l a h :

\n q = 1 , 7 8 9 4 4 + 0 , 5 8 3 9 5 I n k ; r^ = 0 , 9 6 9 8 9 ( 1 6 , 0 5 2 8 0 ) d = 2 , 2 5 6 5 8

s e d a n g k a n u n t u k s u b p e r i o d e I I a d a l a b :

I n 4 = 2 , 1 1 7 8 6 + 0 , 4 5 5 1 9 Ink; = 0 , 7 0 6 8 8 ( 3 , 4 7 2 4 4 ) d = 1 , 3 4 4 6 3

T e t a p i k e s i m p u l a n , u n t u k s u b p e r i o d e 11 d i a t a s t i d a k l a h b e n a r k a r e n a p e n g u j i a n C h o w t e r h a d a p k e d u a b a s i l r e g r e s i t e s e b u t m e n g b a s i l k a n s t a t i s t i k F - 1 , 2 4 9 9 6 y a n g n i l a i n y a l e b i b k e c i l d a r i n i l a i k r i t i s n y a d a l a m t a b e l p. I n i b e r a r t i b a b w a b a s i l r e g r e s i u n t u k s u b p e r i o d e 11 s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n t i d a k l a h b e r b e d a d e n g a n y a n g d i m i l i k i s u b p e r i o d e I . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a c e n d e r u n g l e b i b b e r s i f a t p a d a t m o d a l b a i k p a d a s u b p e r i o d e 1 a t a u 11 m a u p u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i . K e s i m p u l a n t e r a k h i r i n i d i s o k o n g o l e b k e n y a t a a n t e r b a d a p n y a p e n i n g k a t a n n i l a i t a m b a h p e r t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i h a s i l k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n s e l a m a

268


p e r i o d e y a n g d i c a k u p o l e h s t u d i i n i . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 7 0 n i l a i t a m b a h p e r t e n a g a k e r j a t e r s e b u t b a n y a l a b R p 6 6 3 . 6 7 0 d a n a n g k a t e r s e b u t n a i k m e n j a d i R p 1 7 . 7 4 7 . 6 8 3 d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 6 ( s e m u a n y a d i b i t u n g a t a s d a s a r h a r g a b e r l a k u ) . P e r h i t u n g a n y a n g d i d a s a r k a n k e p a d a n i l a i t a m b a h y a n g d i k o r e k s i (deflated) d e n g a n i n d e k s h a r g a s e m e n ( 1 9 8 3 = 1 0 0 ) m e m p e r l i b a t k a n k e n a i k a n d a r i R p 4 . 3 7 7 . 7 6 8 d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 0 m e n j a d i R p 2 0 . 3 4 9 . 6 1 2 p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 0 t e t a p i t u r u n m e n j a d i R p 1 6 . 6 3 3 . 2 5 5 p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 6 . S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n n i l a i t a m b a h r i e l y a n g d i h a s i l k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t e l a b n a i k d e n g a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n s e b e s a r 1 6 , 0 3 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6 .

D i s a m p i n g i t u r a s i o b i a y a t e n a g a l i s t r i k d a n gas t e r b a d a p u p a b t e n a g a k e r j a j u g a t e l a b m e m p e r l i b a t k a n p e n u r u n a n . P a d a t a b u n 1 9 7 0 r a s i o t e r s e b u t m e n c a p a i 0 , 3 0 0 2 8 t e t a p i t u r u n m e n j a d i 0 , 2 6 0 0 1 d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 0 d a n t e r u s t u r u n m e n j a d i 0 , 1 3 3 2 2 p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 6 . F a k t a i n i j u g a m e m b e r i k a n i n d i k a s i b a b w a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a b u k a n l a h i n d u s t r i y a n g c e n d e r u n g b e r s i f a t p a d a t k a r y a . S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n , b a s i l r e g r e s i u n t u k s u b p e r i o d e I I s e k u r a n g - k u r a n g n y a t e l a b m e m b e r i k a n i n d i k a s i b a b w a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t e l a b m e m b e r i k a n b a n y a k k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a k e p a d a a n g k a t a n k e r j a y a n g k i t a p u n y a i . K e s i m p u l a n i n i j u g a b e r l a k u u n t u k s e l u r u h p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i k a r e n a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p k a p i t a l b a n y a 1 5 , 8 % l e b i b b e s a r d a r i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p t e n a g a k e r j a . D e m i k i a n p u l a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p t e n a g a k e r j a u n t u k p e r i o d e 1 a d a l a b r e l a t i f c u k u p b e s a r ( 0 , 4 1 6 0 5 ) s e h i n g g a i n d u s t r i s e m e n I n d o n e s i a j u g a t e l a b m e n a m b a h j u m l a h k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a y a n g c u k u p b e r a r t i d a l a m p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t . K e a d a a n y a n g d i m a k s u d d i m u n g k i n k a n k a r e n a p a b r i k s e m e n t e l a h b e r o p e r a s i sel a m a 2 4 j a m s e h a r i s e h i n g g a 3 k e l o m p o k t e n a g a k e r j a t e l a h b e k e r j a s e c a r a b e r g a n t i a n s e t i a p h a r i . K e l o m p o k 1 b e k e r j a d a r i j a m 7 . 0 0 - 1 5 . 0 0 s e d a n g k a n k e l o m p o k 11 b e k e r j a d a r i j a m 1 5 . 0 0 - 2 3 . 0 0 d a n k e l o m p o k 111 b e k e r j a d a r i j a m 2 3 . 0 0 s a m p a i j a m 7 . 0 0 p a g i p a d a h a r i b e r i k u t n y a .

B e k e r j a n y a m e s i n - m e s i n p a b r i k s e m e n s e l a m a 2 4 j a m p e n u b s e t i a p b a r i d i l a k u k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d a l a m r a n g k a m e n g u s a l i a k a n m i n i m a l i s a s i p e n g a n g g u r a n m e s i n - m e s i n p a b r i k s e h i n g g a k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g d a p a t d i r e a l i s i r s e m a k s i m a l m u n g k i n . S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n , k e n y a t a a n m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a r e a l i s a s i p r o d u k s i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a b a n y a s e k i t a r 6 9 % r a t a - r a t a d a r i k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g s e t i a p t a b u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6 w a l a u p u n p e r s e n t a s e t e r t i n g g i ( 8 5 , 6 % ) s e m p a t d i c a p a i p a d a t a b u n 1 9 7 8 s e d a n g k a n y a n g t e r e n d a h ( 5 3 % ) d i a l a m i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 . R e n d a h n y a r e a l i s a s i p r o d u k s i s e m e n d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 3 a d a l a b a k i b a t b a r u m u l a i n y a b e r o p e r a s i u n i t - u n i t p a b r i k b a r u p a d a P T . S e m e n P a d a n g d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g s e b e s a r 6 0 0 j u t a t o n s e r t a P T . D I C F d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i

269

Lains

t e r p a s a n g s e b e s a r 1,5 j u t a t o n s e r t a P T . S e m e n A n d a l a s I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g s e b e s a r s a t u j u t a t o n .

S e b e l u m i n i t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n b a h w a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e m e n ( 2 0 , 9 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n ) d a n m a s u k a n k a p i t a l y a n g d i g u n a k a n ( 1 6 , 6 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n ) t e l a l i d i s e r t a i o l e b r e l a t i f t i n g g i n y a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a y a n g d i s e d i a k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n ( 6 , 7 % r a t a -r a t a p e r t a b u n ) s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i . K e n y a t a a n i n i a g a k m e n y i m p a n g d a r i p a r a d o k s y a n g d i t e m u i p a d a s e b a h a g i a n b e s a r n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a l a m m e m b a n g u n d a n m e n g e m b a n g k a n s e k t o r i n d u s t r i . P a d a u m u m n y a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p r o s e s i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i t e l a b m e n g a l a m i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a y a n g r e l a t i f r e n d a h p a d a s e k t o r i n d u s t r i d i s a m p i n g r e l a t i f t i n g g i n y a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e l u a r a n d a n m a s u k a n k a p i t a l ( l i b a t a n t a r a l a i n : E c k b a u s , 1 9 5 5 ; L e w i s , 1 9 6 5 , b a l . 2 ; R e y n o l d s , 1 9 6 5 ; d a n B a e r a n d H e r v e , 1 9 6 6 ) . P a r a d o k s y a n g d i m a k s u d j u g a d i t e m u k a n p a d a s e b a h a g i a n b e s a r i n d u s t r i d i I n d o n e s i a d a l a d a l a m k u r u n w a k t u 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 6 6 s e p e r t i y a n g d i l a p o r k a n o l e b S u k a j i ( 1 9 6 9 , b a l . 1 0 7 - 1 1 7 ) .

D e n g a n l a i n p e r k a t a a n d a p a t d i k a t a k a n b a b w a p e n g a l a m a n s e b a g i a n b e s a r n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n r e l a t i f r e n d a h n y a k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s s u b s t i t u s i a n t a r a k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a s e l a m a p e r i o d e p r o s e s i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i d i l a k s a n a k a n , s e d a n g k a n k o e f i s i e n t e r s e b u t a d a l a h r e l a t i f t i n g g i ( s a m a d e n g a n s a t u ) p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6 . T e t a p i p e n e m u a n S i c a t u n t u k P i l i p i n a j u g a b e r t e n t a n g a n d e n g a n p a r a d o k s y a n g d i m a k s u d u n t u k s e p a r o h i n d u s t r i y a n g d i -k a j i n y a ( l i b a t S i c a t , 1 9 7 0 ) .

M e n y i m p a n g n y a p e n g a l a m a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a d a r i p a r a d o k s y a n g d i a l a m i s e b a g i a n b e s a r n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g e r a t k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n . P a d a u m u m n y a p r o s e s i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g t e l a b d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n m e m a n f a a t k a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g p a d a t m o d a l {capital intensive) d e n g a n m e n g b e m a t t e n a g a k e r j a {labor saving). T e t a p i k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i m a n f a a t k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a b b e r s i f a t n e t r a l d a l a m p e n g e r t i a n H i c k s s e p e r t i y a n g a k a n d i j e l a s k a n b e r i k u t i n i .

P e n g u j i a n F y a n g t e l a b d i l a k u k a n s e b e l u m i n i m e n y i m p u l k a n b a b w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i u n t u k k e d u a s u b p e r i o d e t i d a k l a h b e r b e d a s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n b a i k e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p k a p i t a l m a u p u n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a p e r i o d e 1 d a n I I t i d a k l a h b e r b e d a s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k . K e s i m p u l a n t e r s e b u t j u g a m e r e f l e k s i k a n t i d a k b e r b e d a n y a R T S s u b p e r i o d e I ( R T S 1 ) d e n g a n R T S s u b p e r i o d e 11 ( R T S 11) . K e s i m p u l a n y a n g d i a m b i l m e n j a d i l e b i b m e y a k i n k a n s e t e l a b d i l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n / t e r b a d a p p e r b e d a a n a n t a r a R T S I d a n R T S 1 1 . N i l a i

2 7 0


h i t u n g s t a t i s t i k / y a n g d i p e r o l e h a d a l a h - 0 , 3 6 1 9 1 d a n t e r n y a t a a n g k a i n i l e b i h k e c i l d a r i n i l a i s t a t i s t i k t m e n u r u t t a b e l p a d a d e r a j a t k e p e r c a y a a n m a h a p u n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h b e r s i f a t n e t r a l m e n u r u t k o n s e p H i c k s .

K e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d e m i k i a n i t u , s e p e r t i y a n g t e l a b d i j e l a s k a n p a d a s u b - b a b 2 . 4 , a k a n m e m p e r b e s a r p e m a k a i a n k a p i t a l d i s a m p i n g m e m p e r l u a s k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a . K a r e n a n y a t i d a k l a h m e n g h e r a n k a n j i k a d a l a m p e r l u a s a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a d i t e m u i p e n y i m p a n g a n d a r i p a r a d o k s y a n g l a z i m d i t e m u i d i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a l a m m e l a k s a n a k a n p r o ses i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i .

IV. Kesimpulan dan Implikasi Penemuan

S t u d i i n i m e n e m u k a n b a h w a f u n g s i p r o d u k s i C o b b - D o u g l a s y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n constant return to scale a d a l a h b e r l a k u s a b (valid) u n t u k i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a , k h u s u s n y a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6 . K o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p k a p i t a l y a n g d i p e r o l e h s e b e s a r 0 , 5 3 6 5 9 a d a l a b s e k i t a r 1 1 6 % d a r i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n t e r b a d a p t e n a g a k e r j a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a t e l a b d i k e m b a n g k a n d a n d i p e r l u a s d e n g a n m e m i l i h t e k n o l o g i y a n g p a d a t m o d a l . S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n , l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a y a n g d i s e d i a k a n i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t a d a l a b r e l a t i f t i n g g i .

D a t a y a n g d i p u n y a i m e m p e r l i b a t k a n b a b w a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e l u a r a n s e b e s a r 2 0 , 9 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n y a n g d i s e r t a i o l e b l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n m a s u k a n k a p i t a l s e b e s a r 3 2 , 9 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n ( a t a s d a s a r h a r g a b e r l a k u ) a t a u 1 6 , 6 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n ( a t a s d a s a r h a r g a k o n s t a n 1 9 8 3 ) j u g a d i i k u t i o l e b k e n a i k a n j u m l a h t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i t a m p u n g d e n g a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n s e b e s a r 6 , 7 % r a t a - r a t a p e r t a b u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g d i k a j i . K a r e n a n y a , p e n g a l a m a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a m e m p e r l i b a t k a n p e n y i m p a n g a n d a r i p a r a d o k s y a n g s e l a m a i n i d i a l a m i o l e b n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p r o s e s i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i . K e a d a a n t e r s e b u t d i m u n g k i n k a n k a r e n a k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i t e r a p k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n a d a l a b n e t r a l d a r i s u d u t p a n d a n g a n H i c k s . D i s a m p i n g i t u , b e k e r j a n y a 3 k e l o m p o k t e n a g a k e r j a ( 3 s h i f t s ) d a l a m 2 4 j a m j u g a t e l a b m e n d o r o n g t e r c i p t a n y a k e a d a a n t e r s e b u t .

B e r d a s a r k a n p e n e m u a n e m p i r i s m e n g e n a i k o e f i s i e n e l a s t i s i t a s k e l u a r a n y a n g d i p e r o l e h b e r i k u t i n i d i b i t u n g p r o d u k m a r g i n a l k a p i t a l ( M P , ) d a n n i l a i p r o d u k m a r g i n a l t e n a g a k e r j a ( V M P , ) . H a s i l p e r h i t u n g a n d i l a p o r k a n p a d a t a b e l 4 . 1 y a n g s e l a n j u t n y a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b a s i l y a n g s e s u n g g u h n y a d i t e r i m a k a p i t a l (actual rate of return on capital) d a n b a s i l y a n g s e s u n g g u h n y a d i t e r i m a o l e b t e n a g a k e r j a (actual return to labor).

271

Lains

P r o d u k m a r g i n a l t o t a l c a p i t a l a d a l a h : M P , = a QIK

s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k m a r g i n a l s t o k k a p i t a l a d a l a h :

M P , 1 = a iNT)lK

d i m a n a NT = n i l a i t a m b a h y a n g d i h a s i l k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n . S e l a n j u t n y a p r o d u k m a r g i n a l k a p i t a l l a n c a r {current capital) a d a l a h M P , I I y a n g d i b i t u n g s e b a g a i r e s i d u a l ( M P , - M P , I ) .

K e m u d i a n M P K d i b i t u n g d e n g a n b a s i l y a n g s e s u n g g u h n y a d i t e r i m a o l e b k a p i t a l t o t a l ( R R , ) y a n g d i b i t u n g d e n g a n ;

R R , = (G - W)IK

s e d a n g k a n M P , I d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n h a s i l y a n g s e s u n g g u h n y a d i t e r i m a o l e b s t o k k a p i t a l ( R R K 1 ) y a n g d i p e r o l e h m e l a l u i :

R R , I = ( V r - W)IK

S e l i s i b a n t a r a R R , d a n R R , 1 a d a l a b R R , 11 y a n g m e r u p a k a n b a s i l y a n g s e s u n g g u h n y a d i t e r i m a o l e b k a p i t a l l a n c a r . T e r a k h i r d i b a n d i n g k a n V M P , y a n g d i b i t u n g d e n g a n :

V M P , = ( 1 - a ) NTIL

d a n u p a b r a t a - r a t a y a n g d i t e r i m a p e k e r j a {WIL).

T a b e l 1 m e m p e r l i b a t k a n b a b w a M P , , M P , I d a n M P , I I c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n s e h i n g g a b u k u m b a s i l y a n g s e m a k i n b e r k u r a n g {the law of diminishing return) d a r i k a p i t a l j u g a b e r l a k u p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a . S e b a l i k n y a V M P , t e r i i b a t c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t s e h i n g g a b u k u m b i a y a t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g s e m a k i n b e r t a m b a h {the law of increasing labor cost) j u g a b e r l a k u p a d a i n d u s t r i y a n g d i t e l i t i . B e r l a k u n y a k e d u a b u k u m e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t b u k a n l a h s e s u a t u y a n g m e n g h e r a n k a n s e b a g a i a k i b a t j a u b l e b i b t i n g g i n y a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k a p i t a l d a r i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n t e n a g a k e r j a .

S e l a n j u t n y a T a b e l 4 . 1 j u g a m e m p e r l i b a t k a n b a b w a : R R , / M P , > 1 R R , I / M P , 1 > 1 R R , I I / M P , I I > 1 W ,

— / V M P , < 1

I n i b e r a r t i b a b w a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i k a p i t a l t e l a b d i b a y a r l e b i b t i n g g i d a r i p r o d u k m a r g i n a l y a n g d i b a s i l k a n n y a s e d a n g k a n m a s u k a n t e n a g a k e r j a t e l a b d i b a y a r l e b i b r e n d a h d a r i h a r g a M P , y a n g d i s u m b a n g k a n n y a .

272

T a b e l 1. Perbandingan produk marginal kapital dan produk marginal tenaga kerja dengan hasil yang sesungguhnya diterima masukan pada industri semen di Indonesia, 1970- 1986

T a h u n M P , R R , M P , I R R , I M P ^ I I R R ^ I I V M P ^ W / L

1 9 7 0 2 , 6 0 8 1 9 4 , 1 0 0 5 1 1 , 3 4 1 2 7 1 , 7 3 9 5 3 1 ' I z z m 1 , 2 6 6 9 2

1 , 5 2 3 8 3 1 I D 1 0 1

1 9 7 1 2 , 4 1 0 8 1 3 , 5 2 9 1 9 t T rTO/Ti -\

1 , 3 8 8 0 9 1 , 6 2 3 2 1 1 , 0 2 2 7 2 1 , 9 0 5 9 8 1 , 2 4 3 9 9 1 f i r \ D f . D

1 9 7 2 2 , 2 5 3 4 6 3 , 9 4 0 3 3 1 , 5 2 4 1 8 2 , 5 8 1 2 4 0 , 7 2 9 2 8 1 , 3 5 9 0 9 5 ,0 / / 2 U 1 9 7 3 1 ,81243 2 , 9 7 9 4 0 1 , 0 5 8 6 0 1 , 5 7 4 5 4 0 , 7 5 3 4 8 1 , 4 0 4 8 6 2 , 2 9 0 6 0 1 , 5 1 9 4 9 1 9 7 4 1 , 5 5 5 8 2 2 , 6 2 6 2 8 0 , 8 4 8 6 2 1 , 3 0 8 3 3 0 , 7 0 7 2 0 1 , 3 1 7 9 5 2 , 6 8 2 8 5 1 , 7 2 3 3 9 1 9 7 5 1 , 3 9 9 4 9 2 , 2 8 0 2 6 0 , 8 3 8 2 1 1 , 2 3 4 2 0 0 , 5 6 1 2 8 1 , 0 4 6 0 6 2 , 2 0 7 5 8 1 , 7 2 3 3 9 1 9 7 6 1 , 2 2 9 9 0 2 , 0 7 1 7 0 0 , 7 1 6 3 8 1 , 1 1 4 7 0 0 , 5 1 3 5 2 0 , 9 5 7 0 0 2 , 8 0 7 4 7 1 , 9 8 5 3 3 1 9 7 7 1 , 2 8 0 7 5 2 , 2 0 5 1 2 0 , 8 9 7 2 4 1 , 4 9 0 4 1 0 , 3 8 3 5 1 0 , 7 1 4 7 1 4 , 2 6 4 4 6 1 , 9 1 3 6 1 1 9 7 8 0 , 9 6 4 3 9 1 , 6 9 1 1 1 0 , 6 7 3 9 7 1 , 1 4 9 8 7 0 , 2 9 0 4 2 0 , 5 4 1 2 4 5 , 4 8 3 3 3 1 , 8 1 6 1 0 1 9 7 9 0 , 9 4 6 0 0 1 , 6 6 3 6 7 0 , 5 5 3 7 1 0 , 9 3 2 6 0 0 , 3 9 2 2 9 0 , 7 3 1 0 7 4 , 8 1 5 2 3 1 , 9 0 8 0 2 1 9 8 0 0 , 9 2 9 5 7 1 , 6 4 6 9 4 0 , 5 1 9 7 5 0 , 8 8 3 1 9 0 , 4 0 9 8 2 0 , 7 6 3 7 5 5 , 2 5 4 2 0 1 , 7 9 4 7 9 1 9 8 1 0 , 7 5 8 8 2 1 , 3 2 7 9 5 0 , 4 8 4 3 8 0 , 8 1 6 5 0 0 , 2 7 4 4 4 0 , 5 1 1 4 5 4 , 8 5 2 6 7 2 , 2 0 1 1 4 1 9 8 2 0 , 5 5 6 5 7 0 , 9 7 0 8 0 0 , 2 6 2 2 2 0 , 4 2 2 2 4 0 , 2 9 4 3 5 0 , 5 4 8 5 6 3 , 4 0 8 7 3 2 , 5 6 0 8 3 1 9 8 3 0 , 7 0 7 1 0 1 , 2 2 9 9 1 0 , 2 7 1 5 0 0 , 4 1 8 1 4 0 , 4 3 5 6 0 0 , 8 1 1 7 7 2 , 6 6 9 3 6 2 , 3 5 3 3 7 1 9 8 4 0 , 5 5 8 9 9 0 , 9 6 7 5 3 0 , 2 2 3 7 2 0 , 3 4 2 7 2 0 , 3 3 5 2 7 0 , 6 2 4 8 1 2 , 6 0 3 5 0 2 , 5 9 9 3 4 1 9 8 5 0 , 7 7 9 2 5 1 , 3 7 7 3 5 0 , 2 3 6 4 9 0 , 3 6 5 8 7 0 , 5 4 2 7 6 1 , 0 1 1 4 8 2 , 7 2 8 1 1 2 , 1 6 4 0 3 1 9 8 6 0 , 5 4 1 4 1 0 , 9 6 2 0 3 0 , 1 5 2 1 3 0 , 2 3 6 5 6 0 , 3 0 4 8 5 0 , 7 2 5 4 7 2 , 7 9 8 1 3 2 , 7 5 4 7 0

Lains

S a l a h s a t u f a k t o r y a n g m u n g k i n m e n y e b a b k a n l e b i h t i n g g i n y a p e m b a y a r a n u n t u k k a p i t a l d a r i M P ^ y a n g d i b a s i l k a n n y a e r a t k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n d a t a y a n g d i g u n a k a n o l e h s t u d i i n i . D a t a n i l a i t a m b a h (NT) y a n g d i l a p o r k a n o l e h B P S J a k a r t a d a l a m b e r b a g a i s t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i a d a l a h m e r u p a k a n s e l i s i b a n t a r a n i l a i k o t o r k e l u a r a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n d e n g a n b i a y a m a s u k a n y a n g j u g a m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n s e w a g e d u n g d a n p e r l e n g k a p a n . D i d a l a m n i l a i k o t o r k e l u a r a n t e r s e b u t t e r m a s u k p u l a b i a y a d e p r e s i a s i , p a j a k t i d a k l a n g s u n g , s e r t a b i a y a t i d a k l a n g s u n g l a i n n y a y a n g w a j i b d i k e l u a r k a n p e r u s a h a a n ( s e p e r t i s u m b a n g a n w a j i b d a n l a i n s e b a g a i n y a ) d i s a m p i n g p e m b a y a r a n u n t u k f a k t o r p r o d u k s i k a p i t a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a . B e r d a s a r k a n d a t a y a n g m u n c u l d a l a m p u b l i k a s i S t a t i s t i k I n d u s t r i , B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , J a k a r t a , u n t u k b e b e r a p a t a h u n ( 1 9 7 5 - 1 9 8 6 ) , d i p e r k i r a k a n n i l a i t a m b a h i n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g d i p e r o l e h a k a n d i t a k s i r l e b i h t i n g g i s e k i t a r 2 5 %.

S u n g g u h p u n d e m i k i a n , s e a n d a i n y a NT y a n g d i t a k s i r l e b i h t i n g g i t e r s e b u t d i k o r e k s i d e n g a n m e m p e r h a t i k a n s e m u a n i l a i v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l y a n g d i m a k s u d , k i t a a k a n t e t a p m e m p u n y a i k e s i m p u l a n b a h w a m a s u k a n k a p i t a l t e l a h d i b a y a r l e b i h t i n g g i d a r i M P ^ y a n g d i s u m b a n g k a n n y a . K a r e n a n y a , b i a y a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i k a p i t a l y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m e n g e m b a n g k a n d a n m e m p e r l u a s i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h t e r l a i u m a h a l d i l i h a t d a r i s u d u t k e m a k m u r a n s o s i a l (sosial welfare) b a n g s a I n d o n e s i a . D i s a m p i n g i t u , s e b a g i a n h a s i l y a n g d i t e r i m a k a p i t a l t e r s e b u t a k a n d i n i k m a t i b u k a n o l e h w a r g a n e g a r a I n d o n e s i a k a r e n a p e n a n a m a n m o d a l a s i n g ( P M A ) j u g a t e l a h t u r u t m e m b i a y a i p e m b a n g u n a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n n e g a r a k i t a .

M a h a l n y a m a s u k a n k a p i t a l b a r a n g k a l i k a r e n a k a p i t a l m a s i h r e l a t i f l a n g k a (scarce) s i f a t n y a d a n a l t e r n a t i f l a i n n y a y a n g t e r s e d i a d a l a m m e -m a n f a a t k a n n y a j u g a r e l a t i f l e b i h b a n y a k d i I n d o n e s i a . D i s a m p i n g i t u , d i p e r k i r a k a n p u l a p a r a i n v e s t o r j u g a t e l a h m e m p e r h a t i k a n p r e m i u m u n t u k r e s i k o (risk premium) d a l a m m e n a n a m k a n m o d a l n y a p a d a i n d u s t r i s e m e n s e h i n g g a m e r e k a m e m p u n y a i t a r g e t u n t u k m e m p e r o l e h h a s i l i n v e s t a s i y a n g l e b i h t i n g g i s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r t e n t u . ' ' * D i s a m p i n g i t u , r e l a t i f t i n g g i n y a t i n g k a t b u n g a k r e d i t i n v e s t a s i d a n k r e d i t m o d a l k e r j a d i I n d o n e s i a j u g a t e l a h m e n d o r o n g t i n g g i n y a h a s i l y a n g d i t e r i m a o l e h m a s u k a n k a p i t a l .

R e n d a h n y a p e m b a y a r a n y a n g s e s u n g g u h n y a d i t e r i m a o l e h t e n a g a k e r j a d a r i V M P ^ y a n g d i s u m b a n g k a n n y a b a r a n g k a l i d a p a t d i j e l a s k a n d e n g a n m e n g k a j i k e a d a a n s t r u k t u r p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a . K e a d a a n s t r u k t u r

A l a s a n y a n g sama j u g a t e l a h d i g u n a k a n o l e h C h o n g H y u n N a m d a l a m men je l a s k a n l e b i h t i n g g i n y a R R J d a r i M P K pada i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a h a n d i K o r e a S e l a t a n ( l i h a t C h o n g H y u n N a m , 1 9 7 5 , h a l . 9 9 ) .

274


p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a d i I n d o n e s i a d i t a n d a i o l e h h a d i r n y a e k s e s s u p l a i seh i n g g a p e r s a i n g a n a n t a r a p a r a p e k e r j a m e n j a d i t i d a k s e m p u r n a . D a l a m s t r u k t u r p a s a r y a n g d e m i k i a n i t u t e n a g a k e r j a d i b a y a r b u k a n b e r d a s a r k a n V M P ^ m e l a i n k a n b e r d a s a r k a n M R P ^ {marginal revenue product of labor) y a n g l e b i h r e n d a h d a r i V M P ^ . D i s a m p i n g i t u , S e r i k a t P e k e r j a S e l u r u h I n d o n e s i a ( S P S I ) y a n g a d a p a d a s e t i a p p e r u s a h a a n d i l i n g k u n g a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n t i d a k m e m p u n y a i k e k u a t a n u n t u k m e l a k u k a n t a w a r m e n a w a r {bargaining power) m e n g e n a i u p a h . K a r e n a n y a , s u l i t b a g i S P S I u n t u k m e n j a d i k a n v a r i a b e l u p a h s e b a g a i i n s t r u m e n g u n a m e n i n g k a t k a n k e s e j a h t e r a a n p a r a a n g g o t a n y a s e b a g a i a k i b a t l e m a h n y a p o s i s i y a n g d i p u n y a i n y a .

I n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g m u l a i d i p e r l u a s d i I n d o n e s i a p a d a a w a l d a s a w a r s a t u j u h p u l u h a n p a d a m u l a n y a a d a l a h m e r u p a k a n i n d u s t r i s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r . S e k i t a r 5 3 % k e b u t u h a n s e m e n d a l a m n e g e r i t e l a h d i p e n u h i o l e h s e m e n i m p o r p a d a t a h u n 1 9 7 0 . T e t a p i m u l a i t a h u n 1 9 8 3 d i r a s a k a n b a h w a i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a h a r u s m e r u b a b o r i e n t a s i n y a k e p a d a e k s p o r s e b a g a i a k i b a t m u l a i d i r a s a k a n j e n u h n y a p a s a r d a l a m n e g e r i . W a l a u p u n j u m l a h p r o d u k s i s e m e n y a n g d i h a s i l k a n h a n y a m a m p u m e l a y a n i s e k i t a r 7 4 % k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i , t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g h a n y a l a h s e k i t a r 5 3 % p a d a t a h u n t e r s e b u t . K e m a m p u a n p r o d u k s i u n t u k m e m e n u h i k e b u t u h a n d a l a m n e g e r i m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 8 0 , 1 % d e n g a n t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i s e b e s a r 5 4 , 3 % p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 4 . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 p r o d u k s i s e m e n y a n g d i h a s i l k a n t e l a h m e l e b i h i k e b u t u h a n d a l a m n e g e r i d i m a n a e k s e s p r o d u k s i y a n g t e r j a d i m e n c a p a i s e k i t a r 1 4 % d a r i j u m l a h k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i p a d a t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i s e b e s a r 6 0 , 2 %. F k s e s p r o d u k s i i n i b e r l a n j u t t e r u s s e h i n g g a n a i k m e n j a d i 1 7 % p a d a t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i 6 3 , 7 % p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 6 .

M e n g h a d a p i j e n u h n y a p a s a r d a l a m n e g e r i , i n d u s t r i s e m e n t e l a h m e l a k u k a n e k s p o r s e m e n k e b e b e r a p a n e g a r a A s i a s e p e r t i B a n g l a d e s h , H o n g k o n g , S i n g a p u r a , M a l d i v e s , N e p a l , P a p u a N u g i n i d a n S r i l a n g k a . T e r a k h i r I n d o n e s i a j u g a t e l a h m e n g e k s p o r s e m e n k e P i l i p i n a d a n T a i w a n y a n g d a h u l u n y a a d a l a h n e g a r a p e n g e k s p o r s e m e n . T e t a p i j u m l a h y a n g d i e k s p o r m a s i h r e l a t i f r e n d a h v o l u m e n y a . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 , v o l u m e e k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a h a n y a s e b e s a r 6 , 5 % d a r i j u m l a h p r o d u k s i y a n g d i h a s i l k a n d a n k e m u d i a n m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 1 2 , 3 % d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 6 . ' ^

R e l a t i f r e n d a h n y a v o l u m e e k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a e r a t k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n i m p l i k a s i p e n e m u a n e m p i r i s s t u d i i n i y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a

E k s p o r s e m e n m u l a i d i l a k u k a n I n d o n e s i a pada t a h u n 1 9 7 8 d a l a m j u m l a h y a n g sangat t i d a k b e r a r t i ( h a n y a s e k i t a r 1,2 % d a r i j u m l a h p r o d u k s i y a n g d i h a s i l k a n ) . Persentase ekspor t e r s e b u t n a i k m e n j a d i 1 2 , 2 % d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 7 9 y a n g k e m u d i a n m e r o s o t k e m b a l i m e n j a d i 1,2 p e r s e n pada t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . K e m u d i a n k e m b a l i n a i k m e n j a d i 2 , 7 % d a n 5 ,4 % b e r t u r u t - t u r u t pada t a b u n 1 9 8 3 d a n 1 9 8 4 .

2 7 5

Lains

i n d u s t r i s e m e n y a n g c e n d e r u n g p a d a t m o d a l t e l a h m e m b a y a r m a s u k a n k a p i t a l l e b i h t i n g g i d a r i • M P ^ y a n g d i b a s i l k a n n y a . K a r e n a n y a , s e c a r a t e o r i t i s d i p e r k i r a k a n p r o s p e k e k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a t i d a k l a h b e g i t u b a g u s k a r e n a b e r t e n t a n g a n d e n g a n t e o r i H e c k s b e r O h l i n . K e n d a l a u n t u k m e m p e r b e s a r v o l u m e e k s p o r s e m e n i n i d i p e r h e b a t l a g i o l e h r e l a t i f t i n g g i n y a u p a h y a n g d i b a y a r k a n o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i m a n a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 t i n g k a t u p a h r a t a - r a t a r i i l t e l a h m e n c a p a i 8 0 % d a r i V M P ^ d a n p e r s e n t a s e t e r s e b u t n a i k m e n j a d i 9 8 , 4 % d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 6 . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a j u g a t i d a k m e n i k m a t i k e u n t u n g a n k o m p a r a t i f t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g s e h a r u s n y a d i p e r o l e h p a d a s t r u k t u r p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i t a n d a i o l e h k e h a d i r a n e k s e s s u p l a i .

D i p e r k i r a k a n h a r g a j u a l s e m e n e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a d i l u a r n e g e r i s e l a m a i n i a d a l a h d i b a w a h h a r g a j u a l d a l a m n e g e r i t e t a p i s e k u r a n g - k u r a n g n y a s a m a d e n g a n b i a y a v a r i a b e l r a t a - r a t a p e r u n i t . ' * K e b i j a k s a n a a n t e r s e b u t d i p e r k i r a k a n d i t e m p u h o l e h p e r u s a h a a n s e m e n s e m a t a - m a t a d a l a m u s a h a -n y a u n t u k m e n a i k k a n t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g seh i n g g a b i a y a t e t a p r a t a - r a t a p e r u n i t d a p a t d i p e r k e c i l . K a l a u p e r k i r a a n i n i b e n a r d a n k e a d a a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i l a n j u t k a n t e r u s , s e c a r a p r a k t i s v o l u m e e k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a a k a n m e n i n g k a t d i m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . D a m p a k n y a a d a l a h p e n i n g k a t a n t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g y a n g s e l a n j u t n y a a k a n m e n a i k k a n p e r m i n t a a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n t e r h a d a p t e n a g a k e r j a s e h i n g g a k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a p a t d i p e r l u a s . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 6 , s e p e r t i t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n s e b e l u m i n i , t i n g k a t u t i l i t a s k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g h a n y a l a h s e k i t a r 6 4 % d a n j u m l a h t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g d i t a m p u n g o l e h i n d u s t r i s e m e n b e r j u m l a b 1 0 . 3 6 7 o r a n g d i m a n a 5 2 % d i a n t a r a n y a a d a l a h k a r y a w a n p r o d u k s i . S e a n d a i n y a t i n g k a t u t i l i s a s i k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i t e r p a s a n g d a p a t d i t i n g k a t k a n m e n j a d i 1 0 0 % s e b a g a i a k i b a t b e r b a s i l n y a p e r l u a s a n p a s a r i n t e r n a s i o n a l ( d a n p e n i n g k a t a n k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i ) , d i p e r k i r a k a n i n d u s t r i s e m e n a k a n m a m p u m e m b e r i k a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a b a r u k e p a d a 1 . 9 5 0 o r a n g c a l o n k a r y a w a n p r o d u k s i a t a u s e k i t a r 1 9 % d a r i j u m l a h k a r y a w a n n y a p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 6 . K a r e n a n y a ; i n d u s t r i s e m e n d i I n d o n e s i a h a r u s l a h m e n i n g k a t k a n v o l u m e e k s p o r n y a d i m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g w a l a u p u n p r o s p e k n y a t i d a k b a i k d i l i h a t d a r i s u d u t t e o r i H e c k s b e r - O h l i n .

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S t i g U g h t z , J o s e p h , a n d H i r o f u m i U z a w a , eds. ( 1 9 6 9 ) , Reading in Modem Theory of Economic Growth, C a m b r i d g e , Mass . : M . I . T . Press.

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279

t o 00 O

A p p e n d i k s

Tabel A . ! . D a t a mengenai I n d u s t r i Semen di I n d o n e s i a . 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 6

d

Tahun Kapasita.s Produksi "

Produksi Semen "

NUai Prod. Total 2'

Perkiraan Stok Kapital ->

Tenaga Kerja ^>

Upah IIIK (1983=100)'*'

DPMB (1983=100)'"

I l ls (1983=1001"*'

Biaya Mstrlk dan Gas ^'

Nilai I'ambah Perkiraan Kon-Total ^' sum.si Semen"

Ekspor Semen

1970 840,0 531,648 4711,782 10102,877 3651,0 719.859 14,810 14,5 15,160 885,299 2423,058 1205,0 t.o 1971 840,0 484,924 5320,109 10250,549 3556,0 885,029 15,520 15,3 20,010 922,292 3063,125 1428,0 t.o 1972 840.0 686,531 10674,839 13670,730 3011,0 477,092 16,470 18,9 22,750 1119,948 7220,187 1606,0 t.o 1973 950,0 752,158 10105,835 15361,460 3188,0 1038,584 21,440 22,8 24.600 2397,297 5092,585 2016,0 t.o 1974 950,0 936,778 17012,959 17935,740 3007,0 1468,927 30,130 28,5 32,990 2839,018 9279,708 25 22,0 t.o 1975 2050,0 1071,276 28815,507 43024,688 4278,0 2644,580 35,870 35,5 49,140 4636,037 17258,86 8 25 93,0 t.o 1976 2550,0 1839,380 47078,376 60974,048 4882.0 4165,781 42,980 41,8 46,700 9256,639 27421,843 2856,0 t.o 1977 3150,0 2649,296 65915,1 15 71661,919 5723,0 5226,092 47,720 43,1 45,820 7368.681 46177,545 3434.0 t.o 1978 4250,0 3636,000 95536,153 12%86,933 6485,0 6078,318 51,610 45,7 47.910 10820,716 66765,880 3821,0 0,425 1979 6500,0 4338,000 133479,630 208082,629 7228,0 8499,497 61,630 • 62,8 54,520 34539,244 78128,278 4144,0 0,530 1980 8500,0 5247,000 187220,290 267777,490 7868,0 10280,407 72,800 74,7 65,380 39237,081 104680,405 5595,0 0,374 1981 8500,0 5719,000 208460,687 328080,594 6645,0 15548,478 81,710 81,9 66,780 33368,936 133068,277 672,0 0,302 1982 8500,0 5832,000 251135,559 479498,277 8533,0 19546,249 89,450 84,5 73,610 69270,048 118317,039 7884,0 0,071 1983 11600,0 6150,486 352129,287 503982,951 9974,0 23472,558 100,000 100,0 100,000 120676,304 135207,955 8331.0 0,163 1984 12310,0 6692,913 388589,876 647185,344 10046,0 28841,827 110,450 110,0 106,010 143238,645 155523,585 8357.0 0,361 1985 17410,0 10477,126 605165,864 858676,901 13713,0 34325,434 115,670 117,0 105,130 202146,991 183661,363 9174,0 0,685 1986 17410,0 11008,187 654792,895 954975,985 10367,0 34960,648 122,420 118,4 106,700 262431,321 183990,226 9478,0 1,361

Ket. : 1) Dalam juta ton 2) Dalam juta rupiah 3) Dalam Orang 4) I H K = Index Harga Konsumen dan DPMB = Deflator Penanaman Modal Bruto, kcduanya disusun berdasarkan data d,nri BPS, Jakarta:

IHS = Indck Harga Semen, disusun berdasarkan harga rata-rata .semen yang merupakan hasil bagi nilai produksi dan jumlah proiluksi semen.

Sumher: 1. Statistik Industri, Biro Pusat Statistik (BPSX Jakarta selama periode yang dikaji 2. Publikasi Assosiasi Semen Indonesia, Jakarta.

fungsi produksi cobb-douglas pada industri semen di indonesia

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