fundamental analysis (2)
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FUTURE OF INDIAN ECONOMY
India is among the world's youngest nations with a median age of 25 years
India has the second largest area of arable land in the world, making it one of the world'slargest food producers - over 200 million tonnes of foodgrains are produced annually.
With the largest number of listed companies -10,000 across 23 stock exchanges,
India's healthy banking system with a network of 70,000 branches is among the largest inthe world
According to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), India's consumer marketwill be the world's fifth largest (from twelfth) in the world by 2025
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
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Economy Analysis
2006-07 2007-08
Foreign exchange reserve($) 247.76 309.72
FII ($) 10.3 16.1
FDI ($) 15.7 24.57
The indian economy grew at 9.6 percent in 2006-07 and 9 percent in emerging as the secondfastest growing major economy in the world.
POSITION OF INDIA
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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GDP GROWTH RATE
After economy slowdown the GDP growth rate is now increasing and is 6.5 from 6.1.So, in near future the growth rate will again be improve further which is good forinvestors.
INFLATION RATE
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Inflation rate in 2009 went up to negative but now its improving and came back in
positive. We can expect that till 2010 it will be around 4-5% which is good for our
economy.
Central stastical org.
Per capita income has been increased by Rs. 4207 over last year. So we can say that the
purchasing power of people will also increase. If purchasing power will increase than
there will be demand for goods and service and it will force the producer to produce the
goods and service. So the GDP rate will increase and there will be good condition for
investment in future.
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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INVESTMENT IN FIXED ASSETS % OF GDP
This graph is showing that it is increasing year after year.
CONCLUSION
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
ECONOMY WILL BE GOOD FOR INVESTMENT IN 1-2 YEAR
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Industrial production rate
(Annual percentage increase in industrial production (includes manufacturing, mining, andconstruction).
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
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Industry wise Growth Rates of Select Performance Indicatorsover the Quarters of 2008-09
(Percent)Sales Expenditure
Industry / industry group Number ofcompanies
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1. 1 Tea
plantation
25 25.8 35.2 24.9 14.2 22.4 29.9 29.3 21.9
2. Mining &
quarrying
35 67.7 41.5 17.7 -11.5 31.5 31.9 31.2 20.1
3. Textiles 270 20 15.1 5.3 .7 20.4 16 5.4 1.7
4. Paper &
paper
products
38 6.9 24.7 16.1 5.3 8.6 27.1 25.3 3.2
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
Q1
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5. Pharmaceuti
cals &
Medicines
116 24.6 16.8 11.4 11 24.6 20.8 20.7 6.8
6. Cement &
cement
products
38 13.3 17.3 13.2 17.9 24.4 28.3 23.5 13.5
7. Iron & Steel 117 44 48.1 -1.2 -1.4 45.6 55 11.7 -4.7
8. Construction 73 48.3 41.1 33.3 23.7 47.2 40 37 22.5
9. Computer &
related
activities
179 22.9 24.4 18.8 7.5 26.1 22.2 17.4 7.7
10
.
Petroleum
refinery
15 68.4 79.8 15 -5 97.8 93.8 7.3 -10.3
Sales performance of cement industry has increased in last quarter and it is maintaining aconsistent performance quarter after quarter.
Industry wise Growth Rates of Select Performance Indicatorsover the Quarters of 2008-09 (Concld.)
Gross profits Expenditure
Industry / industry group Number of
companies
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q
Q
Q2 Q3 Q4
1 2 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1. Tea 25 7.6 34.9 2.5 $ -18.5 30.9 -0.1 $
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
Q1
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plantation
2. Mining &
quarrying
35 183.2 91.5 -13.9 -44.8 225.4 98.5 -19.6 -51.3
3. Textiles 270 -19 -20.6 -62.8 -20 -63 -70.3 $ $
4. Paper &
paper
products
38 -11.4 2.1 -8.1 -8.4 -22.3 -15.7 -25.7 -11.4
5. Pharmaceu
ticals &
Medicines
116 3.6 -2.4 -27.3 30.6 -10.6 -33.8 -76.2 -26.3
6. Cement &
cement
products
38 -9.2 -16.6 -12.5 12.1 -18.7 -22.2 -16.5 9.4
7. Iron &
Steel
117 34.4 36.6 -77.5 -43.5 27.9 25.8 $ -54
8. Constructio
n
73 32.4 35.5 15.4 20.5 38 26.7 62 1.6
9. Computer
& related
activities
179 8.7 10.6 3.8 4.7 -2.1 7.9 -5.7 9.2
10. Petroleum
refinery
15 14.2 17.8 -9.3 21 14.3 8.5 -71.5 6.4
Due to economy slowdown the performance of every industries were not good but cementindustry came back with a great rate in the last quarter along with construction.
Percentage change in sales over the quarters of 2008-09(major industry-wise)
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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With the help of this chart we can analyze that only cement industry is that sector
whose sales performance is improving. So we can say that market demand is there
for still and in near future demand for cement will increase.
So according to me cement industry is good industry for investment in next 1-2
years.
Percentage change in net profits over the quarters of 2008-09
(Major industry-wise)
Here we can say from this chart that only cement is that industry whose net profit is
increasing and standing on the first rank with the percentage change 9.4%.
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Sectoral contribution to India INC sales (June 09)
In general terms, India will continue to be one of the more attractive emerging markets. This isowing to the resilience of the Indian economy during this downturn. The fact that valuations are
in line with other key emerging markets, and because the Indian market provides a large
spectrum of stocks & sectors where the global investors can invest.
Thus from a macro perspective, I am positive about the Indian markets. I will not want to focus
on the short - term trends in the Indian economy too much, because in short - term a lot will
depend on how the monsoon plays out and how the recovery across the world shapes up.
I will continue to focus on the more structural aspects of the Indian economy which are likely to
play out over the next few years. Because of:
Positive demographics
Increasing infrastructural spending by government Increasing consumption level
Increasing rural prosperity
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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And likelihood of Indian economy being a relatively
impressive performer on the world stage.
CONCLUSION
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
FRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY WILL BE THE MOST GROWING SECTOR IN
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Performance of Basic Infrastructure IndustriesYear on Year growth (%)
PRODUCTION IN INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRIES
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
SCOPE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRIES
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December April- December % Change
Industry/Infrastructur
e
Unit 2007 2008 2007-08 2008-09 2007-
08
2008
Coal Mn
tonnes
42.81 46.82 305.75 336.52 3.5 10.1
Electricity Generation in Gwh 59236.
1
59630.6 525935.
2
539443.
1
6.6 2.6
Crude petroleum 000
tonnes
2882 2874 25570 25430 0.3 -0.5
Petroleum Products 000
tonnes
12140 12509 107979 112019 7.5 3.7
Finished steel 000
tonnes
4479 4443 38844 39897 6.4 2.7
Cement 000
tonnes
14630 16320 126830 135700 7.7 7.0
Overall growth rate 3.2 2.3 - - 5.9 3.5
During April- December 2008-09, six core infrastructure industries registered a growth of 3.5percent (provisional) as against 5.9 per cent during the corresponding period of the Previousyear.
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Performance of Basic Infrastructure IndustriesYear on Year growth (%)
The above graph is showing that the production of COAL has increased at a greatest
pace and rest are decreasing with a major changes but only cement is having a
small change in production. So we can say that cement is still in demand.
Performance of Basic Infrastructure IndustriesYear on Year growth (%)
PRODUCTION IN INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRIES
June April--June June %
Change
Industry/Infrastructure Unit 2008 2009 2008-09 2009-10 2008 2009
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Coal Mn
tonnes
34.19 39.22 105.50 118.90 6.1 14.7
Electricity Generation in Gwh 58533.
7
62645.5 179377.
4
189700.
8
2.6 7.0
Crude petroleum 000tonnes
2645 2752 8371 8265 -4.7 4.0
Petroleum Products 000
tonnes
12695 12230 37245 35701 5.6 -3.7
Finished steel 000
tonnes
4503 4742 13124 13542 10.4 5.3
Cement 000
tonnes
15160 17100 46070 51651 6.6 12.8
Overall growth rate - - - - 5.1 6.5
Performance of Basic Infrastructure Industries
Year on Year growth (%)
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Despite concerns on slowdown leading to excess supply pressure, the 224-million tonne cementindustry has surprisingly shown strong growth in the last six months, after having reporteddismal growth till October 2008. Cement dispatches grew by 8-10% in the last five consecutivemonths till May 2009. After a strong revival in cement dispatches, the momentum continued in
the beginning of FY2010 as well. The growth in cement consumption was mainly on account ofhigher government spending on infrastructure projects and strong demand from personal homebuilding activity in rural and semi-urban areas, say industry players.
In line with volume growth, cement prices have also improved. On an all-India basis, cementprices have increased by Rs15-20 per 50 kg bag from February 2009 to April 2009.
The price hike is again on the back of strong demand arising from infrastructure projects,personal housing construction in rural and semi-urban areas and supply shortage in some areas.However, for May 2009, the prices have remained stable across the country.
Conclusion
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
NT INDUSTRY WILL BE THE MOST GROWING INDUSTRY AND WILL GO
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CEMENT INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
India is the worlds second largest producer of cement after China with industry capacity of over200 million tonnes (MT)
Total installed capacity was 204.29 MT as on August 31, 2008
Total dispatches have been 100.17 MT during AprilOctober 200809.
100.96 MT during AprilOctober 200809.
All India cement figures
yoy growth mom growth
Mn tons Sep-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 % % YTD08 YTD07 YOY
growth
(%)
Production 13.86 12.76 13.16 8.62 5.32 132.08 122.76 7.59Dispatches 13.87 12.65 13.19 9.64 5.16 131.86 122.37 7.76
Consumption 13.54 12.36 12.91 9.60 4.89 129.98 119.24 9.01
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Cap utization
(%)
81.43 88.49 77.30 _ _ 90.05 88.49 _
REBOUND IN CONSUMPTION GROWTH; CENTRAL AND SOUTHREGION OUTERFORM.
Indias cement consumption grew 9.6% yoy. South market witnessed strong demand supporting firm pricing (up 4.7% yoy) in the
region.
The key concern dips in construction and infrastructure activities in the country.
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS
Second largest in the world in terms of capacity
Low cost of production
WEAKNESS
Effect of global recession on Real Estate and Infrastructure.
Demand-Supply gap, Overcapacity
Increasing Cost of Production
High Interest rates
OPPORTUNITIES
Strong growth of economy in the long run.
Increase in infrastructure projects
Growing middle class
Technological Changes
Increase in government spending.
THREATS
Imports from Pakistan affecting markets in Northern India.
Excess over capacity can hurt margins as well as prices.
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COMPANY CHOOSEN ON THE BASIS OF MARKETCAPITALIZATION
ACCAMBUJA
ULTRATECHSHREE CEMENT
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
COMPANY ANALYSIS
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Market capitalization and P/E ratio (Jun. 09)
High Market capitalization means, any company whose Market capitalization is high thanthat company can survive in bad condition also. So this graph shows that Acc is havingmore market capitalization as well as higher price earnings ratio.
Sales performance (Rs/cr.)
Company Dec. 07 Dec. 08 June 08 June 09
Acc 5,285 5,477 2063.99 2,119.86
Ambuja 4,253 4,627 1,569.77 1,888.47
Ultratech 3,908 4,523 1,495.98 1,968.86
Shree cement 1,447 1,909 615.11 9,22.95
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Sales stability
The sales performance of every company is declining and again increasing. But we can observe
from this graph that the sales stability has been maintained only by ACC and others sales
performance are varying.
Profit (Rs./cr.)
Company Dec. 07 Dec. 08 Variation Jun. 08 Jun. 09 Variation
Acc 1058 847 -20% 271.42 485.62 78.92%
Ambuja 1203 1076 -10.5% 577.02 324.65 -43.74%
Ultratech 725 668 -7.9% 265.01 417.77 57.64%
Shree
cement
258 342 32.6% 110.9 291.13 162.52%
As this table is showing that the profit earned by the Shree cement is very well but itsmarket capitalization is so low that I cannot go for this company. So after Shree cementin the sense of profit only Acc is doing well.
GROSS PROFIT RATIO & NET PROFIT RATIO
Gross profit ratio
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A companys basic strength is its core business activity performance.
Gross profit = (Operating profit/Net Income) *100
Higher the gross profit ratio, better the performance of that company.
Net profit ratio
It identifies the earnings of the business.
Net profit ratio = (Net Profit/Net Income) * 100
Gross Ratio margin & Net Profit margin (%) for ACC
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Gross Ratio margin & Net Profit margin (%) for A mbuja
Gross Ratio margin & Net Profit margin (%) for Ultratech
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Gross Ratio margin & Net Profit margin (%) for Shree cement
CONCLUSION
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
AMBUJA IS GETTING MAXIMUM FROM ITS CORE BUSINESS SO THIS COMPANY IS PERFORMING
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Dividend by Acc
Dividend by Ambuja
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Dividend by Ultratech
Dividend by Shree cementTopic: Fundamental Analysis
Submitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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CONCLUSION FOR DIVIDEND
Quick Ratio (Acid Test Ratio)
This is one of the tool which is used to measure the liquidity of a company.
Quick Ratio = (quick assets/current liabilities)
Quick assets are the assets that can be easily converted into cash or cashequivalents. The current asset that is a major problem to business
enterprises is the INVENTORY. Inventory has to be converted into sales to
make it a cash equivalent.
A very low ratio indicates the short-term debt trap of a company and a very
high ratio compared to the industry standards indicates too much of asset
holding that do not yield high returns to the company.
Quick ratio (A cc)
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
PAID BY ACC IS MORE THAN OTHERS AND ALSO IN THE CONSIS
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Quick ratio (A mbuja)
Quick ratio (ultr a tech)
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Quick ratio (S hree cement)
CONCLUSION FOR QUICK RATIO
Debt Equity Ratio
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
Y ACC IS ABLE TO KEEP THIS RATIO LOW WHICH INDICATES TH
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This measures how much debt a company has compared to its equity. If this
ratio is 1, then the company still has the equity backup to borrow further. If
this ratio is more than 2, then it is considered as risky.
Acc Ltd.
Ambuja
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Ultratech
Shree cement
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
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Conclusion for D/E Ratio
Inventory turnover ratio
Company 2008 2007 2006 2005
Acc 24.85 22.40 17.69 12.29
Ambuja 11.13 17.19 9.55 9.07
Ultratech 31.16 34.61 21.20 11.04
Shree cement 28.34 15.74 11.14 20.27
Here Ultratech is doing well but its performance is not so consistence so it is not easy to say that
what will be this ratio in future. But Acc is improving regularly.
CONCLUSION FOR THE COMPANY
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar KumarSubmitted To: Prof. N. N. PandeyEnrollment No: 208250 (B1) SIMS GHAZIABAD Date:19/09/09
MAKING THE BALANCE YEAR AFTER YEAR AND MAINTAINED TO LIVE BELOW T
RETURN ON IVESTMENT WITHOUT CONSIDERING OF MUCH RISK. SO
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BIBLIOGRAPY
Dalal Street
BS 1000
RBI Bulletin
Economic survey
Internet
Books
Topic: Fundamental AnalysisSubmitted By: Shankar Kumar