from millenial to millioner - wordpress.com...world gdp ranking 2017 source: knoema.com presented by...

1

presented by Hendry Wijaya

From Millenial to Millioner

presented by Hendry Wijaya ( Kresna Securities )

2

14.34%32.56% 33.33%

68.95%

102.92%

280.30%

342.72%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

250.00%

300.00%

350.00%

400.00%

Bank Dollar Emas Deposito Obligasi Properti IHSG

Return on Investment2009 – September 2018


3

Source: Yahoofinance

-19.44%

22.34%

37.28%

50.46%

90.22% 90.57%

141.08%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

140.00%

160.00%

China Hongkong Korea Amerika Jerman Jepang Indonesia

Composite GrowthMaret 2008 - September 2018

Apa itu saham?


4

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (per 30 September 2017)

Masyarakat Indonesia pemilik Rekening BCA

260 Juta 16 Juta

15 orang Indonesia : 1 pemilik rekening BCA

Sumber : https://www.bca.co.id/id/Tentang-BCA/Korporasi/Siaran-

Pers/2017/10/26/09/44/pt-bank-central-asia-tbk-hasil-kinerja-sembilan-bulan-pertama-

2017


5

Tahun Laba bersih

2012 Rp 11 Triliun

2013 Rp 14 Triliun

2014 Rp 16 Triliun

2015 Rp 18 Triliun

2016 Rp 20 Triliun

2017 Rp 23 Triliun


6

Profit Growth

Source: IDX

Tahun Laba bersih

2012 Rp 11 Triliun

2013 Rp 14 Triliun

2014 Rp 16 Triliun

2015 Rp 18 Triliun

2016 Rp 20 Triliun

2017 Rp 23 Triliun


7

Profit Growth

Source: IDX

Nilai Perusahaan BBCA,

4 Juni 2018 :

Rp 584 Triliun


8

Rp 584 Triliun

Dibagi 24,6 Miliar lembar

=

Rp 23,700 / Lembar Saham


9

23,700

Updated: 1 June 2018

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

PT. Bank Central Asia Tbk2008 - Sept 2018

Growth + 669 %


10

Do not take yearly results too

seriously. Instead, focus on

four or five-year averages.

I never invest in anything that

I don’t understand

Warren Buffet


11

Source: databooks


12

Updated: Sept 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

11/30/2012 11/30/2013 11/30/2014 11/30/2015 11/30/2016 11/30/2017

PT. Waskita Karya Tbk

Oktober 2012 - September 2018

6 Years : + 324 %


13

Updated: Sept 2018

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

PT. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk2008 - September 2018

8950

10 Years : + 533 %

How Indonesia people spend the most time on social media?


14

Source:

http://gulfbusiness.com/top-10-nations-people-spend-time-social-media/

4.7 Jam

3.5 Jam

2.7 Jam

0 1 2 3 4 5

Komputer

smartphone

social media

Internet usage per day (Hours)


15

Updated: Sept 2018

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk2008 - September 2018

3600

10 Years : + 691 %


16


17

Updated: Sept 2018

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk

2008 - Sept 2018

10 Years : + 784%

47,075


18

10 Years : + 1128 %

75,025

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

PT. Gudang Garam Tbk2008 - September 2018

Updated: Sept 2018


19

3120

10 Years : + 3052 %

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk2008 - September 2018

Updated: Sept 2018


20

4 Years : -64%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

10/3

1/2

014

12/3

1/2

014

2/28

/20

15

4/30

/20

15

6/30

/20

15

8/31

/20

15

10/3

1/2

015

12/3

1/2

015

2/29

/20

16

4/30

/20

16

6/30

/20

16

8/31

/20

16

10/3

1/2

016

12/3

1/2

016

2/28

/20

17

4/30

/20

17

6/30

/20

17

8/31

/20

17

10/3

1/2

017

12/3

1/2

017

2/28

/20

18

4/30

/20

18

6/30

/20

18

8/31

/20

18

PT. Blue Bird TbkOct 2014 - Sept 2018

2680

Updated: Sept 2018

Laba bersih PT. Blue Bird, Tbk terus menurun


21


22

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

PT. Media Nusantara Citra Tbk2008 - September 2018

10 Years : + 69%


23

Nabung : Rp 500,000 / Bulan (Total 60 Juta)

Investasi 10 tahun Gain

Bank 64 Juta + 4 Juta

Deposito 79 Juta + 19 Juta

Reksa Dana LQ45 121 Juta + 61 Juta

Saham Bank BCA 175 Juta + 115 Juta

Saham Indofood 186 Juta + 126 Juta

Saham Gudang Garam 230 Juta + 170 Juta

Saham Waskita Karya 268 Juta + 208 Juta

Saham Bank BRI 427 Juta + 367 Juta


24

Nabung : Rp 500,000 / Bulan (Total 180 Juta)

Investasi 30 tahun Gain

Bank 225 Juta + 45 Juta

Deposito 474 Juta + 294 Juta

Reksa Dana LQ45 2,5 Miliar + 2,3 Miliar

Saham Bank BCA 11 Miliar + 11,3 Miliar

Saham Indofood 14 Miliar + 14,5 Miliar

Saham Gudang Garam 34 Miliar + 34,6 Miliar

Saham Waskita Karya 63 Miliar + 63,3 Miliar

Saham Bank BRI 392 Miliar + 392 Miliar

25


Analisis Fundamental

Analisis Teknikal

What to buy?

When to buy?

Memilih Saham Unggulan

• Net Income Growth selalu naik

• ROE (Return on Equity) diatas 15%

> memiliki Laba diatas 15%

• PBVR yang lebih rendah dari industrinya

> cari yang lebih Murah

26


Download di Google Play Store


27

Klik watchlist

dan masukan kode saham


28

Klik kode saham tersebut


29

Klik ‘Financials’

cari ‘net income growth’ yang terus naik


30

Klik ‘key statistics’

cari di kolom ‘profitability’ (ROE > 15%)


31

Kinerja Perusahaan sangatmempengaruhi harga saham dalamjangka panjang


32


33

Ekonomi Makro


34

5200

5400

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

IHSG (2018)

Mengapa Tren Saham turun di Tahun 2018 ?


35

2018 Cadev (US$ Billion) Current Account 7 days Reverse Repo US$ / Rupiah

Januari 131.98 - 756 Miliar 4.25% 13,480

Februari 128.05 - 52,9 Miliar 4.25% 13,776

Maret 126.003 + 1123 Miliar 4.25% 13,825

April 124.862 - 1625 Miliar 4.25% 13,946

Mei 122.914 - 1453 Miliar 4.75% 14,021

Juni 119.8 + 1706 Miliar 5.25% 14,476

Juli 118.3 - 2006 Miliar 5.25% 14,485

Agustus 117.9 - 1021 Miliar 5.50% 14,785

September 114.8 5.75% 15,004

Total -13.02% + 150 Bps 11.31%

Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS


36

2018

Brent Price

/ Barel

Harga minyak /

liter PPN 10%

PBBKB

5%

Margin

10% Harga pasar

Januari 67.78 5,746 575 287 575 7,183

Februari 66.08 5,725 573 286 573 7,157

Maret 69.02 6,001 600 300 600 7,502

April 75.92 6,659 666 333 666 8,324

Mei 74.51 6,570 657 329 657 8,213

Juni 77.44 7,050 705 353 705 8,813

Juli 74.16 6,756 676 338 676 8,445

Agustus 77.05 7,165 716 358 716 8,956

September 84.94 8,015 802 401 802 10,019

Indonesia Foreign Direct

Investment


37Source: BKPM

Perbandingan 2018 dan krisis sebelumnya


38

Indikator 1998 2008 2018 Kesimpulan

Inflasi 82.40% 12.10% 3.20% baik

Kurs Rupiah terendah 16,650 12,650 15,150 waspada

neraca transaksi (% to GDP) 0.70% -0.10% -3.00% waspada

Depresiasi Kurs 197% 35% 11.31% Masih batas aman

Suku Bunga 60% 9.50% 5.75% cukup rendah

Hutang pemerintah terhadap GDP 100% 27% 29% Manageble

Hutang luar negeri terhadap GDP 116.80% 33.20% 34.30% waspada

Debt Service Ratio 52% 17.20% 39.56% waspada

Credit Default swap 1248.35 144,66 risiko lebih rendah

Pertumbuhan ekonomi -13.10% 6.10% 5.20% melambat

Dampak Politik terhadap IHSG

IHSG 2014 - 2017


39

PemilihanPresiden 2014

External factor:Perlambatan

ekonomi China

source: Yahoofinance

World GDP Ranking 2017

Source: knoema.com


40

11. Korea 1.530

12. Russia 1.469

13. Australia 1.390

14. Spain 1.307

15. Mexico 1.142

16. Indonesia 1.011

17. Turkey 841

18. Netherlands 824

19. Switzerland 681

20. Saudi Arabia 679

(Billion USD)

1. USA 19.362

2. China 11.938

3. Japan 4.884

4. Germany 3.652

5. France 2.575

6. United Kingdom 2.565

7. India 2.439

8. Brazil 2.081

9. Italy 1.921

10. Canada 1.640

Global Forecast of

Indonesia GDP Ranking on 2030


41

Institution Rank Source

Mckinsey Global Institute 7http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/asia-

pacific/the_archipelago_economy

Standard Chartered 6

http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/archive/indone

sias-economy-to-be-in-worlds-top-six-in-2030-

standard-chartered/

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). 5

http://global.liputan6.com/read/2880278/ramalan

-raksasa-ekonomi-dunia-2030-indonesia-masuk-5-

besar

Y&R's brand strategy firm, BAV

Consulting, and the Wharton School

of the University of Pennsylvania

4https://www.usnews.com/news/best-

countries/best-invest-in


42

source: IDX, IMF, WEO, Bloomberg, DJJPR, BI

Updated: 19 FEB 2018

Key Issues 2018


43

Kenaikan Fed

Rate

Kebijakan

Trump

(Inward

Looking)

Trade war with

China

Eksternal Internal

Keadaan

geopolitik

pilkada dan awal

pilpres

Pelemahan

Rupiah

Kenaikan harga

komoditas

(inflasi)

Kenaikan suku

bunga acuan

Bank Indonesia

Realokasi

Dana

(Foreign)

Dana

Beredar

(Domestic)

Ekonomi

& Struktur

keuangan

Indonesia

2018

GI BEI UKRIDA

Line id: @jua4065i


44

[email protected]

0856 9588 5673

Kresna Securities


45

from millenial to millioner - wordpress.com...world gdp ranking 2017 source: knoema.com presented by...

Documents