framing: social protection and jobspubdocs.worldbank.org/en/477941528225813065/1030... · income...
TRANSCRIPT
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Framing: Social Protection and Jobs
Margaret Grosh,
Sr. Adviser, SPJ, World Bank
April 30, 2018
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Outline
1. Why do we have SPJ?
2. SPJ in practice
3. World Bank and SPJ
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WHY DO WE HAVE SPJ?
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This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
World Bank definition “Social protection and labor systems, policies, and programs help individuals and societies manage risk and volatility and protect them from poverty and destitution—through instruments
that improve…..
Resilience for the vulnerable
Equityfor the poor
Opportunity for all
Insuring against impacts of different
shocks
Protecting against dire poverty and loss of
human capital
Promoting human capital and access to productive
work
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Social Protection Contributes to Human Development and Opportunity
Increase uptake of health services for pregnant women
Reduce infant mortality
Increase vaccination and
growth monitoring
Improve child health, nutrition, and development
Reduce child labor
Increase school enrollment and
attendance
Empower women
Increase life satisfaction and
reduce stress
Help to build skills for work
and life
Reduce teenager pregnancy
Enhance female labor force
participation
Improve health for elderly
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SPJ is Part of the Formula for Reducing Poverty,
Sharing Prosperity and Reducing Inequality
6
• Strong growth and good macroeconomic management
• Labor markets that work to translate growth into increasing job opportunities for the less well-off, reducing income gaps
• Policies that raise productivity of the poor: • Invest in children (ECD and quality education)• Invest in skills through the life cycle• Invest in infrastructure (rural roads,
electrification)
• Social programs to protect the poor and vulnerable: targeted cash transfers; social insurance.
• Progressive taxation to pay for all of this
WHAT WORKS:
Source: Taking on Inequality (World Bank, Joint EFI POV–DEC Flagship 2016).
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Poverty is declining rapidly, inequality some as well
7
Number and Share of people living below
USD1.90/day, 1990-2013
Source: Taking on Inequality (World Bank, Joint EFI POV–DEC Flagship 2016), based on 2013 data from PovCalnet.
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But to end extreme poverty by 2030 we need to reduce income inequality at a faster pace
8
Simulations of poverty by 2030 under current global growth but different inequality
scenarios indicate that reaching the 3% goal is only possible by boosting shared
prosperity and reducing inequality…
Source: Taking on Inequality (World Bank, Joint EFI POV–DEC Flagship 2016), based on 2013 data from PovCalnet.
Poverty simulations (2030) under different
inequality scenarios (shared prosperity
premium)
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SPJ systems help countries and governments become resilient
FORCED DISPLACEMENT
NATURAL DISASTERS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
PANDEMICS CONFLICT
Common and increasing shocks 9
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SPJ systems must respond to changes in the world of work
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
This Photoby
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WHAT IS SPJ IN PRACTICE?
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Program
Program
ProgramProgram
Social protection systems
Delivery system level:
Aim: Building basic subsystems to support one or more programs
Admin.
sub-systems
Program level:
Aim: Improving design of existing programs and harmonizing across portfolio of programs
Policy Level:
Aim: Ensuring overall policy, fiscal coherence across programs and levels of government relative to needs
Source: Robalino, Rawlings and Walker (2012) 12
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Universal Social Protection for all in NeedTo build opportunity, equity and resilience
Requires a comprehensive, coordinated set of instruments working
• Along the life-cycle
• Along the spectrum of welfare
With the several desirable attributes:
… appropriate, inclusive, adequate, equitable, cost-effective, sustainable, incentive-compatible, dynamic…(some of which are in tension with each other)
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SPJ systems must respond to many different contexts, different needs
Different notions of poverty And needs of different groups
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Core social protection domains
Labor and Jobs
Social Insurance
Social Assistance
Individual interventions can affect opportunity, equity, resilience
Weakness in one dimension demands strength in others
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Given the diverse needs of the poor and vulnerable, countries offer a myriad of social benefits & services
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Cash Transfers (CCTs or UCTs) In-Work Benefits
Social Pensions
UnemploymentBenefits
Birth, Child Allowances
Scholarships
Disability Benefits
Food Stamps
Nutrition Supplements
MaternityBenefits
Survivor & Death
Benefits
Sickness & InjuryBenefits
School Feeding, Supplies, Transport
Contributory Pensions
Emergency Assistance
Care-GiverAllowance
Wage Subsidies
Housing & Utility
Subsidies
Family Services
ALMP / Activation Services
Parenting Services
ECD & Nutrition
Child Care Services
Services for At-Risk Youth
Child Protective Services Social & Long-Term Care Services
ActiveAging
Services
Training & Skills
Emergency Services
Legal services
Intermediation, Referral, Counseling, Psycho-Social Support Services
Health Benefits
Disability Services
Public Works
Financial & Productive
Inclusion Services
Transport Subsidies
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Social Pensions
A “typical” social protection landscape….
Civil Servants
SOEs
Private Sector pensions and
health insurance
Security Forces
Social Pensions
Fuel subsidies
Food subsidies
Social Insurance
Social Assistance
LOW INCOME BENEFICIARIES HIGH INCOME
GEN
ERO
SITY
GEN
ERO
SITY
Public works
Universal child benefits
Cash transfers
LOW INCOME BENEFICIARIES HIGH INCOME
Subsidized health insurance
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Social Pensions
A “typical” social protection landscape….
Civil Servants
SOEs
Private Sector pensions
Security Forces
Social Pensions
Fuel subsidies
Food subsidies
Social Insurance
Social Assistance
LOW INCOME BENEFICIARIES HIGH INCOME
GEN
ERO
SITY
GEN
ERO
SITY
Public works
Universal child benefits
Cash transfers
LOW INCOME BENEFICIARIES HIGH INCOME
Subsidized health insurance
Formal labor marketprotections
Productive inclusion
PES
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Greater spending on social insurancethan social assistance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
LIC (18) LMIC (39) UMIC (34) HIC (11)
Spen
din
g, %
of
GD
P
Income group
Average SI spending, % of GDP Average SSN spending, % of GDP
Spending on social assistance and social insurance as share of GDP
19ASPIRE 2018
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Significant country variations are hidden behind the averages
Share of GDP spent on Social Assistance
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State of Safety Nets 2018
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But social protection often small compared to health and education spending
21
CEQ; Lustig 2017
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Spending on Energy Subsidies Is Often Greater Than Spending on Social Assistance
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Evidence for Africa
Beegle, Coudouel, and Monsalve 2018
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Tax and transfer systems in client countries have limited impact on inequality
23Draft WDR, 2018
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And often are too small to conquer poverty either
24
CEQ; Lustig 2017
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The distributional take away on pensions depends in part on whether you think of them as
deferred wages or as transfers
25
CEQ; Lustig 2017
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Globally, incidence is progressive for all social assistance instruments
26
State of Safety Nets 2018
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Coverage is inadequate, especially in low income countries
3
23
47
81
20
14
8
1
32
48
35
17
44
159
1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HIC UMIC LMIC LIC
No Transfer Only Social Insurance Only Social Assistance
Only Labor Market More than one SPL program
Coverage of Social Protection and Labor Programs, Poorest Quintile, programs in household surveys
27ASPIRE 2018
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180
200
(Approximate) Numbers of Active SPL Programs, by Type - Select Countries
Source: World Bank ASPIRE database
SSN Labor Social insurance Social Services General subsidies
Bangladesh:26 SSN programs41 SPJ programs
0.73% of GDP on SSN161 mn population
$1359 GDP/capLIC
Brazil:24 SSN programs71 SPJ programs
1.35% of GDP on SSN206 mn population
$8650 GDP/capMIC
Chile:80 SSN programs179 SPJ programs
3.49% of GDP on SSN 18 mn population$13,793 GDP/cap
U-MIC
Philippines:16 SSN programs40 SPJ programs
0.67% of GDP on SSN102 mn population
$2952 GDP/capMIC
SPJ systems are complex
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ASPIRE 2018
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Georgia: shared social registry, calibrated thresholds
Chile: coordinating contributory and non-contributory pensions
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Non-contributoryTargeted benefit
Income-replacement pension (no minimum)
Retirementincome
Earnings when workingor years of contributions
But should fit together in sensible ways
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AssessPotential Eligibility
Decide Transactionsfor Payments
& Services
CaseManagement
Implement
Although these programs seem quite different, most pass through similar implementation phases along the Delivery Chain
30
“Intended”Population
ApplicantsEligible
ApplicantsBeneficiaries
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Delivery Systems: the conduit from funding to client
Citizen InterfaceInformationSystems
Institutions & Governance
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SPJ IN THE WORLD BANK
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TH
E W
OR
LD
BA
NK
’S
SOC
IAL
PR
OT
EC
TIO
N A
ND
LA
BO
R S
TR
AT
EG
Y
20
12
-20
22
Sector strategy paper 2012-2022
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From exclusion to inclusion
Low coverage concentrated among:
low-income countries and fragile contexts
poor populations and vulnerable groups, including women
informal sector
34
Beegle, Couduel, and Monsalve 2018
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From fragmented approaches to harmonized systems
Fragmentation: Different ministries/donors
implement similar programs Some beneficiaries have access to
multiple programs, others excluded Limited coordination between social
insurance, assistance and labor
Meeting the harmonization challenge:
Address incentive incompatibility Adequate, appropriate financing Clarify institutional roles Use delivery sub-systems as entry
points
Social welfare
35%
Social security/
labor , 9%
Other11%
Outside govern-
ment45%
Cash transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa
are fragmented across ministries and
donors
Source: Garcia and Moore (2012)
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Moving beyond the formal sector the world of work is not a world of wage earners
Source: WDR 2013 Calculations
wage43%
farmers34%
self-employe
d23%wage
47%
farmers26%
self-employe
d27%
wage
50%
farmers
29%
self-
employe
d
21%
wage
19%
farmers
48%
self-
employe
d
33%
East Asia and the PacificMiddle East and North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
From less productiveto more productive
Low productivity concentrated Low-income countries and fragile
contexts Poor populations and vulnerable
groups Informal, rural sectors
Meeting the productivity challenge Investment in human capital,
especially among children Improving productivity and access
to jobs• Improve labor market functioning to
enable access to higher productivity work
• Foster activation programs, skills, capacity building
• Demand side measures
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From inflexibility to responsiveness
The need for effective risk management
Against both individual shocks and systemic crises
Crises are increasingly frequent, widespread, severe and concentrated in poor regions among poor people
Meeting the responsiveness challenge
Ensure that appropriate programs are in place before shocks hit
Enhance existing programs to capture the newly vulnerable
Add programs to the social protection and labor portfolio that can be scaled up during crises
Strengthen programs to help the most vulnerable in times of crisis 37
0
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Nu
mb
er o
f p
eop
le a
ffec
ted
(m
illio
ns)
Nu
mb
er o
f d
isas
ters
occ
uri
ng
Occurrence Total affected
Number of disasters occurring and people affected, 1980-2016
Source: EM-DAT
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World Bank Engagements: numbers
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Volume of Lending in Safety Nets Projects, millions US$
IBRD IDA Linear (IDA)
SPJ works in a total of 125 countries: • 65 countries have both advisory and
lending services • 47 countries have advisory only• 13 countries lending only
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World Bank engagements: content
parametric pension reform, systemic pension reform, informal sector pensions
Jobs Diagnostics, labor market reforms, youth employment, training, public employment services, migration support services
CCTs, UCTs, PW, social pensions, disability benefits, school feeding, food programs, fee waivers for housing or energy, etc.
MT, HMT, PMTs, CBT, geographic,demo, mixed methods
ID, social registries, information systems, payment mechanisms, citizen interface
Social intermediation, social care services
RCTs, PSM, RDD, process evaluations, qualitative assessments39
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This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
Universal Social Protection Systems
Resilience for the vulnerable
Equityfor the poor
Opportunity for all
Insuring against impacts of different
shocks
Protecting against dire poverty and loss of
human capital
Promoting human capital and access to productive
work
For more information:http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotectionlabor